Sansiri Underperform (17E TP Bt1.80)
Earnings Review
Close Bt1.99
Property Development May 16, 2017
Beat forecast /Below forecast/ In line
1Q17 net profit declined 8.1% YoY and 68.0% QoQ Results date: May 15, 2017 Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.220
0.229
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
0.0%
4.8%
Reuters / Bloomberg
SIRI.BK/SIRI TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
14,285.50
Par (Bt)
1.07
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m) Foreign limit / actual (%)
28.00/823.00 39.00/33.97
52 week High / Low (Bt)
2.22/1.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
83,294.00
NVDR (%)
13.64
Estimated free float (%)
79.08
Beta
1.15
URL
www.sansiri.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Worarat Powpaka Analyst, no. 17992
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6248
n.a.
Maintain Underperform with the 2017E TP of Bt1.80 We maintain Underperform with the 2017E TP of Bt1.80 as SIRI’s price is fully valued. We expect 2Q17E core profit to be soft QoQ as there are no new completed condos to be transferred in the period from either SIRI or JVs. 1Q17 net profit declined 8.1% YoY and 68.0% QoQ SIRI’s 1Q17 net profit was Bt511mn (‐8.1% YoY, ‐68.0% QoQ). SIRI booked an extra loss on the diminution in the value of property developments for sale and land held for development amounting to Bt148mn; hence, SIRI’s core profit was Bt650mn (+7.0% YoY, ‐57.5% QoQ), which was above our estimate of Bt451mn, mainly due to a better‐ than‐expected GPM, lower‐than‐expected SG&A expenses and a lower‐ than‐expected shared loss from JVs. Transfers were in line at Bt5.7bn (‐ 19.0% YoY, ‐44.1% QoQ). The average GPM was 34.2% (our forecast was 32.5%). The shared loss from JVs was Bt85mn, below our estimated loss of Bt100mn. The SG&A expense‐to‐revenue ratio was 16.8%, below our forecast of 19.0%. Maintain 2017E core profit 1Q17 core profit was 20% of our 2017E core earnings forecast, which is still in line with our 2017E forecast at Bt3.17bn, decreasing 4.4% YoY from 2016 core earnings. However, we will fine‐tune our forecast after we get more information from the analyst meeting on 17 May‐17. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btm) Net profit (Btm) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Core EPS (Bt) Core EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) Normalized PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 28,093 3,393 0.25 23.0 0.19
2015 36,955 3,506 0.25 (1.4) 0.20
2016 33,811 3,380 0.24 (3.6) 0.23
2017E 32,699 3,173 0.22 (6.1) 0.22
(3.3)
3.6
15.7
(4.4)
5.8
0.12 1.82 2014 8.0 10.3 14.4 1.1 6.0 16.2 143.0
0.12 1.90 2015 8.1 9.9 11.6 1.0 6.0 13.5 112.9
0.12 1.97 2016 8.4 8.6 11.3 1.0 6.0 12.2 103.4
0.11 2.09 2017E 9.0 9.0 13.1 0.9 5.4 10.9 111.2
0.11 2.22 2018E 8.5 8.5 13.3 0.9 5.7 10.9 106.2
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
2018E 33,827 3,358 0.24 5.8 0.24
Figure 1: Quarterly earnings review
Profit and Loss (Btmn) FY Ended 31 Dec
1Q16
4Q16
1Q17
% YoY
% QoQ
2017E
% YoY
Revenue from project sales Total revenue Gross profit
7,041 7,573 2,245
10,206 11,486 3,632
5,703 6,993 2,125
(19.0) (7.7) (5.3)
(44.1) (39.1) (41.5)
27,749 32,699 10,022
(7.8) (3.3) (2.9)
YTD (% 2017E) 20.6 21.4 21.2
EBITDA
1,008
2,120
1,083
7.4
(48.9)
4,706
(7.4)
23.0
Interest expense
(169)
(117)
(175)
3.6
49.9
(574)
(6.7)
30.5
94
40
74
(21.8)
86.2
409
23.3
18.1
Income tax
Other income
(159)
(444)
(159)
(0.3)
(64.3)
(873)
(7.6)
18.2
Other extraordinary Items
(50)
96
(136)
170
(242)
0
(100.0)
n.m.
Gn (Ls) from affiliates
(24)
(31)
(85)
n.m.
n.m.
80
n.m.
n.m.
Net profit (loss)
556
1,599
511
(8.1)
(68.0)
3,173
(6.1)
16.1
Core net profit (loss)
607
1,527
650
7.0
(57.5)
3,173
(4.4)
20.5
Reported EPS (THB)
0.04
0.11
0.04
(8.1)
(68.0)
0.22
(6.1)
16.1
Core EPS (THB)
0.04
0.11
0.05
7.0
(57.5)
0.22
(4.4)
20.5
Gross margin – project sales (%)
30.3
32.9
34.2
32.0
Gross margin ‐ overall (%)
29.6
31.6
30.4
30.6
EBITDA margin (%)
13.3
18.5
15.5
14.4
Net margin (%)
7.3
13.9
7.3
9.7
Current ratio (x)
3.0
2.7
2.2
2.6
Interest coverage (x)
5.6
17.6
5.8
7.7
Debt / equity (x)
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.4
BVPS (Bt)
1.94
1.97
2.00
2.09
ROE (%)
12.8
12.4
11.8
10.9
Source: SIRI, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, POMPUI, TFD, TTL, NMG, NUSA.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC) Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy DISCLAIMER
This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068