The Platinum Group
Buy (2016 TP Bt7.30)
Company update
Close Bt6.35
Commerce August 11, 2016
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Subsiding growth from interest income Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.247
0.250
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
1.2%
0.0%
Reuters / Bloomberg
PLAT.BK/PLAT TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
2,800.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
18.00/512.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/0.37
52 week High / Low (Bt)
6.95/4.78
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
4,271.00
NVDR (%)
2.19
Estimated free float (%)
26.3
Beta
0.83
URL
http://theplatinumgroup.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Pornsawat Jirajarus Analyst, no 18228
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6257
Maintain positive view on new project in 2018 PLAT’s share price rally of >20% after reporting the 1Q16 profit results last May should have resulted from increasing investor confidence after it delivered favorable 30%‐50% profit growth in the prior 4‐5 quarters, and also partly from speculation prior to the stock’s inclusion in the FTSE SET Mid Cap Index in June. However, its profit growth significantly declined in 2Q16 after turning to a similar base of interest income from the IPO proceeds; moreover, we expect this weak profit growth trend to continue in 2H16‐17E while awaiting catalysts from new projects in 18E. We retain our positive view on its new projects, which will bring down PLAT’s PE/EPS growth ratio from 2.1x this year to merely 0.2x in 19E. Maintain a Buy call. 2Q16 net profit increased 4% YoY, a slower growth pace as expected PLAT reported 2Q16 net profit of Bt165mn (EPS: Bt0.06), up 4% YoY but down 8% QoQ. The YoY profit growth came at a softer pace (vs. 30%‐50% growth in the past 4‐5 quarters) after turning to a similar base regarding high interest income (from IPO proceeds) that bolstered profit growth since 2Q15. Its 4% YoY net profit growth in 2Q16 was driven by 1) 4% revenue growth and 2) a 90 bps higher gross margin (mainly from the hotel business). Meanwhile, other income dropped 12% YoY (‐Bt5mn) due largely to the decline in fixed deposit rates and a decrease in the return from trading securities (unit trusts of mutual funds). These investments, totaling around Bt5bn, were from the IPO proceeds that the company has thus far yet to utilize for construction of its new project. Rental and service income, accounting for 65% of total revenue, increased 8% YoY (+Bt13mn) from rental rate hikes in 1Q16. Revenue from hotels stood flat YoY and F&B revenue declined 2% YoY. The 1H16 net profit of Bt344mn increased 15% YoY and accounts for 49% of our full‐year forecast. Expect moderate profit growth in 2H16 We expect moderate profit growth at around 8‐10% in 2H16 given the high season of the retail and hotel businesses and rental rate hikes as the catalysts. PLAT’s new project “The Market by Platinum”, which has been in the foundation work stage since late last year, will be a key profit driver for PLAT from 2H18 onward. Increasing cash spent on new projects should reduce PLAT’s interest income in 17E. Risks to our forecasts could come from a slower‐than‐expected economic recovery and delays in the development of new projects. We maintain our forecasts and the DCF TP at Bt7.30 in 2016. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec 2014 917 Revenues (Bt mn) 436 Net profit (Bt mn) 0.21 EPS (Bt) 64.72% EPS growth (%) 0.08 Dividend (Bt) 1.26 BV (Bt)
2015 968 630 0.22 8.17% 0.16 2.93
2016E 1,019 705 0.25 11.96% 0.10 3.02
2017E 1,063 694 0.25 ‐1.51% 0.10 3.17
2018E 1,109 871 0.31 25.52% 0.12 3.38
FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2015 22.2 14.6 1.7 3.15% 10.75 cash
2016E 25.2 17.2 2.1 1.59% 8.46 0.02
2017E 25.6 16.6 2.0 1.56% 8.00 0.08
2018E 20.4 11.0 1.9 1.96% 9.50 0.03
2014 n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 16.56 cash
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: Quarterly earnings results Profit and Loss (Btmn) FY Ended 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Other extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Normalized profit (loss) Reported EPS (THB) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
2Q15 403 244 240 (0) 40 (41) 0 0 0 159 159 0.06 60.6 59.4 39.5 10.9 high cash 2.8 10.5
3Q15 387 233 240 (0) 45 (41) 0 0 0 159 159 0.06 60.1 62.1 41.0 12.9 high cash 2.9 8.9
4Q15 411 252 256 (0) 61 (45) 0 0 0 171 171 0.06 61.3 62.2 41.7 11.6 high cash 2.9 7.9
1Q16 408 247 266 (0) 55 (47) 0 0 0 179 179 0.06 60.7 65.1 43.9 10.5 high cash 3.0 8.2
2Q16 % YoY % QoQ 415 2.9 1.8 253 3.5 2.3 248 3.6 (6.5) (0) 206.7 (5.5) 35 (12.2) (36.9) (44) 5.8 (7.4) 0 nm nm 0 nm nm 0 nm nm 165 3.9 (7.6) 165 3.9 (7.6) 0.06 3.9 (7.6) 60.9 59.8 39.8 9.6 high cash 2.9 8.2
1H15 801 483 454 (0) 63 (75) 0 0 0 299 299 0.11 60.3 56.7 37.4 10.9 high cash 2.8 10.5
1H16 % YoY 823 2.7 500 3.5 514 13.1 (0) 212.1 90 41.7 (91) 21.3 0 nm 0 nm 0 nm 344 15.0 344 15.0 0.12 15.0 60.8 62.4 41.8 9.6 high cash 2.9 8.2
2016E % YoY % YTD 1,767 10.4 46.6 1,064 10.0 47.0 1,045 10.0 49.2 0 nm nm 180 6.6 49.7 (176) 9.9 51.4 0 nm nm 0 nm nm 0 nm nm 705 12.0 48.8 705 12.0 48.8 0.25 12.0 48.8 60.2 59.2 39.9 7.5 high cash 3.0 8.5
Source: Company data, KTZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI, CI. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of ALT, EKH, RJH.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
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8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
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Ploenchit Branch
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Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
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Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
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A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
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Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
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Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
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624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.