VGI Global Media
VGI Global Media Buy (FY16E TP Bt5.20)
Company Update
Close Bt4.62
Media & Publishing March 18, 2016
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Further investment in outdoor media Price Performance (%)
Growth story to continue We have a positive view regarding VGI moving forward with the acquisition of MACO, even though the impact may not be significant in the short term. Meanwhile, we view that VGI still has further upside potential in the future, especially for aviation media and online media, which will cooperate with the Rabbit Card. We thus maintain our BUY call for VGI with the SOTP‐based TP of Bt5.20. Increases stake in MACO and tender offer at price close to market price VGI will acquire 375mn shares of MACO from the founder group at the purchasing price of Bt1.10/share (12.46% or Bt413mn). After the acquisition, VGI’s investment stake in MACO will increase to 37.42%, vs. 24.96% currently. Hence, VGI is required to make a tender offer for the rest of MACO’s shares at the same price. However, MACO’s founder group will still hold 13.79% in MACO; thus, the maximum number of MACO’s shares from the tender offer would be 1,484mn (48.79% or Bt1.6bn), implying a Bt2.0bn maximum total investment for this transaction. Nevertheless, as the tender offer price is close to the market price with brightening prospects for MACO after the VGI step up, we expect VGI to end up with only a 37.42% investment stake in MACO.
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.128
0.143
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
10.2%
4.2%
Reuters / Bloomberg
VGI.BK/VGI TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
6,864.32
Par (Bt)
0.10
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m) Foreign limit / actual (%)
32.00/911.00 49.00/6.96
52 week High / Low (Bt)
6.35/3.44
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
14,229.00
NVDR (%)
1.76
Estimated free float (%)
29.47
Beta
0.93
URL
www.vgi.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 3A (Established)
Raenoo Bhandasukdi Analyst no. 17989 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5836
Around 1‐6% upside potential to VGI’s earnings VGI’s strategy for MACO is to be a tool for media expansion upcountry as MACO already has media billboards covering 69 provinces in Thailand. According to VGI, MACO’s revenue will increase to Bt900mn in 2016E, vs. Bt694mn in 2015, owing to media expansion, particularly 300 new networking billboards at PTT gas stations nationwide, for which MACO was recently granted a concession contract. Meanwhile, MACO will change 40 static signs at columns under BTS stations to LED and install 14 additional LED signs at BTS extensions. Based on a 23% net profit margin for MACO (average in 2014‐15), MACO is likely to report net profit of Bt207mn in 2016E. We assume a 4% interest charge for the investment: If we assume a 12.46% stake increase in MACO, this should result in only Bt9mn or 1% upside potential to VGI’s net profit in FY17E (end March). If VGI can acquire up to a 61.25% stake (12.46% + 48.79%) in MACO, then the upside potential would be around Bt63mn or 6% to VGI earnings in FY17E. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Mar Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm. profit (Btmn) Norm. EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Mar PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
FY13 2,838 902 0.301 902 0.301 8.01 0.270 0.607 FY13 15.37 10.09 7.61 5.84 85.30 Cash
FY14 3,149 1,146 0.334 1,146 0.334 11.08 0.320 0.569 FY14 13.84 9.15 8.12 6.93 60.71 cash
FY15 2,963 999 0.122 838 0.146 (56.38) 0.176 0.266 FY15 31.73 10.35 17.34 3.81 44.29 18.75
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
FY16E 2,191 970 0.141 885 0.129 (11.44) 0.116 0.262 FY16E 35.83 11.58 17.65 2.51 53.53 16.14
FY17E 2,378 1,023 0.149 1,023 0.149 15.64 0.134 0.292 FY17E 30.99 10.01 15.84 2.90 53.88 3.38
Figure 1: Summary of SOTP‐based valuation for VGI Business
% Holding
VGI
Valuation Method
MACO*
37.42
SOTP‐based
Value to VGI (Bt)
DCF (WACC 8%)
5.00
Tendering price of Bt1.1
0.20
5.20
Source: KT ZMICO Research, Note: * assume share increase by acquiring from major shareholder only
Figure 2: VGI’s PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X) 70 +2 S.D.
60 +1 S.D.
50 Avg. 40 30
-1 S.D. 20
-2 S.D.
Jan-16
Mar-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Apr-15
May-15
Feb-15
Oct-14
Jan-15
Nov-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Jan-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
May-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Oct-12
0
Nov-12
10
FY16E +1.0SD +0.5SD Average ‐0.5SD ‐1.0SD ‐1.5SD ‐2.0SD ‐2.5SD
PER (x) 48.0 43.0 38.0 33.0 28.0 23.0 18.0 13.0
Implied market price (Bt) 6.77 6.06 5.36 4.65 3.95 3.24 2.54 1.83
Upside/Downside vs. current market price (%) 46.5 31.2 16.0 0.7 (14.5) (29.8) (45.1) (60.3)
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 3: MACO’s proven record of revenue and net profit Figure 4: MACO’s advertising portfolio
Source: VGI
Figure 5: VGI’s potential expansion over the next two years
Source: VGI
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Financial tables PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Equity earnings Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Minority interests Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Minority interests Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital FX, non‐cash adjustment & others Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) Core EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%) FINANCIAL QUALITY Total debt to capital employed (x) Net debt to equity (x) Interest coverage (x)
FY12 1,977 (1,295) 682 (282) 495 (95) 400 (1) 0 27 427 (148) (0) 278 0.28 0.28 278 0.28 0.40
FY13 2,838 (1,289) 1,548 (394) 1,250 (95) 1,155 (2) 0 34 1,187 (285) 0 902 0.301 0.301 902 0.301 0.270
FY14 3,149 (1,342) 1,807 (434) 1,459 (86) 1,374 (1) (1) 47 1,419 (273) 0 1,146 0.334 0.334 1,146 0.334 0.320
FY15 2,963 (1,325) 1,638 (419) 1,372 (153) 1,219 (10) 15 (115) 1,109 (272) 0 838 0.122 0.122 999 0.146 0.176
FY12 381 0 228 705 1,314 0 0 1,021 0 293 1,314
FY13 1,254 0 473 852 2,579 0 0 758 0 1,821 2,579
FY14 503 0 923 1,315 2,741 0 0 788 0 1,953 2,741
FY15 187 4 1,262 1,833 3,286 530 0 1,457 0 1,829 3,286
FY12 278 95 (47) 16 343 (69) 11 (59) (1) 0 (400) 0 (401) (117) 284 0.28
FY13 902 95 (437) 0 560 (321) 17 (304) 0 1,058 (440) 0 618 873 255 0.09
FY14 1,146 86 60 0 1,292 (570) (459) (1,029) 1 0 (1,014) 0 (1,013) (750) 262 0.08
FY15 838 153 79 0 1,070 (600) (354) (954) 189 344 (965) 0 (432) (316) 116 0.02
FY12 41.1 47.0 60.7 34.5 25.0 20.2 14.1 14.1 34.7
FY13 43.5 152.6 8.0 54.6 44.0 40.7 31.8 31.8 24.0
FY14 11.0 16.7 11.1 57.4 46.3 43.6 36.4 36.4 19.2
FY15 (5.9) (6.0) (56.4) 55.3 46.3 41.1 28.3 33.7 24.5
FY12 0.00 cash cash
FY13 0.00 cash cash
FY14 0.00 cash cash
FY15 0.22 cash cash
FY16E 2,191 (783) 1,407 (357) 1,222 (172) 1,050 (14) 26 123 1,185 (214) 0 970 0.141 0.141 885 0.129 0.116
FY17E 2,378 (806) 1,571 (364) 1,391 (184) 1,208 0 31 40 1,279 (256) 0 1,023 0.149 0.149 1,023 0.149 0.134
FY16E 240 4 1,337 1,724 3,305 530 0 1,507 0 1,797 3,304
FY17E 462 4 1,303 1,760 3,529 530 0 1,528 0 2,002 3,529
FY16E 970 172 181 0 1,324 (268) 0 (268) 0 0 (1,003) 0 (1,003) 53 1,056 0.15
FY17E 1,023 184 86 0 1,293 (150) 0 (150) 0 0 (921) 0 (921) 222 1,143 0.17
FY16E (26.1) (10.9) (11.5) 64.2 55.8 47.9 44.3 40.4 18.1
FY17E 8.5 13.8 15.6 66.1 58.5 50.8 43.0 43.0 20.0
FY16E 0.23 cash cash
FY17E 0.21 cash cash
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
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Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
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Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Company Update
Close Bt4.62
Media & Publishing March 18, 2016
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Further investment in outdoor media Price Performance (%)
Growth story to continue We have a positive view regarding VGI moving forward with the acquisition of MACO, even though the impact may not be significant in the short term. Meanwhile, we view that VGI still has further upside potential in the future, especially for aviation media and online media, which will cooperate with the Rabbit Card. We thus maintain our BUY call for VGI with the SOTP‐based TP of Bt5.20. Increases stake in MACO and tender offer at price close to market price VGI will acquire 375mn shares of MACO from the founder group at the purchasing price of Bt1.10/share (12.46% or Bt413mn). After the acquisition, VGI’s investment stake in MACO will increase to 37.42%, vs. 24.96% currently. Hence, VGI is required to make a tender offer for the rest of MACO’s shares at the same price. However, MACO’s founder group will still hold 13.79% in MACO; thus, the maximum number of MACO’s shares from the tender offer would be 1,484mn (48.79% or Bt1.6bn), implying a Bt2.0bn maximum total investment for this transaction. Nevertheless, as the tender offer price is close to the market price with brightening prospects for MACO after the VGI step up, we expect VGI to end up with only a 37.42% investment stake in MACO.
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.128
0.143
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
10.2%
4.2%
Reuters / Bloomberg
VGI.BK/VGI TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
6,864.32
Par (Bt)
0.10
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m) Foreign limit / actual (%)
32.00/911.00 49.00/6.96
52 week High / Low (Bt)
6.35/3.44
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
14,229.00
NVDR (%)
1.76
Estimated free float (%)
29.47
Beta
0.93
URL
www.vgi.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 3A (Established)
Raenoo Bhandasukdi Analyst no. 17989 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5836
Around 1‐6% upside potential to VGI’s earnings VGI’s strategy for MACO is to be a tool for media expansion upcountry as MACO already has media billboards covering 69 provinces in Thailand. According to VGI, MACO’s revenue will increase to Bt900mn in 2016E, vs. Bt694mn in 2015, owing to media expansion, particularly 300 new networking billboards at PTT gas stations nationwide, for which MACO was recently granted a concession contract. Meanwhile, MACO will change 40 static signs at columns under BTS stations to LED and install 14 additional LED signs at BTS extensions. Based on a 23% net profit margin for MACO (average in 2014‐15), MACO is likely to report net profit of Bt207mn in 2016E. We assume a 4% interest charge for the investment: If we assume a 12.46% stake increase in MACO, this should result in only Bt9mn or 1% upside potential to VGI’s net profit in FY17E (end March). If VGI can acquire up to a 61.25% stake (12.46% + 48.79%) in MACO, then the upside potential would be around Bt63mn or 6% to VGI earnings in FY17E. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Mar Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm. profit (Btmn) Norm. EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Mar PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
FY13 2,838 902 0.301 902 0.301 8.01 0.270 0.607 FY13 15.37 10.09 7.61 5.84 85.30 Cash
FY14 3,149 1,146 0.334 1,146 0.334 11.08 0.320 0.569 FY14 13.84 9.15 8.12 6.93 60.71 cash
FY15 2,963 999 0.122 838 0.146 (56.38) 0.176 0.266 FY15 31.73 10.35 17.34 3.81 44.29 18.75
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
FY16E 2,191 970 0.141 885 0.129 (11.44) 0.116 0.262 FY16E 35.83 11.58 17.65 2.51 53.53 16.14
FY17E 2,378 1,023 0.149 1,023 0.149 15.64 0.134 0.292 FY17E 30.99 10.01 15.84 2.90 53.88 3.38
Figure 1: Summary of SOTP‐based valuation for VGI Business
% Holding
VGI
Valuation Method
MACO*
37.42
SOTP‐based
Value to VGI (Bt)
DCF (WACC 8%)
5.00
Tendering price of Bt1.1
0.20
5.20
Source: KT ZMICO Research, Note: * assume share increase by acquiring from major shareholder only
Figure 2: VGI’s PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X) 70 +2 S.D.
60 +1 S.D.
50 Avg. 40 30
-1 S.D. 20
-2 S.D.
Jan-16
Mar-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Apr-15
May-15
Feb-15
Oct-14
Jan-15
Nov-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Jan-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
May-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Oct-12
0
Nov-12
10
FY16E +1.0SD +0.5SD Average ‐0.5SD ‐1.0SD ‐1.5SD ‐2.0SD ‐2.5SD
PER (x) 48.0 43.0 38.0 33.0 28.0 23.0 18.0 13.0
Implied market price (Bt) 6.77 6.06 5.36 4.65 3.95 3.24 2.54 1.83
Upside/Downside vs. current market price (%) 46.5 31.2 16.0 0.7 (14.5) (29.8) (45.1) (60.3)
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 3: MACO’s proven record of revenue and net profit Figure 4: MACO’s advertising portfolio
Source: VGI
Figure 5: VGI’s potential expansion over the next two years
Source: VGI
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Financial tables PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Equity earnings Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Minority interests Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Minority interests Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital FX, non‐cash adjustment & others Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) Core EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%) FINANCIAL QUALITY Total debt to capital employed (x) Net debt to equity (x) Interest coverage (x)
FY12 1,977 (1,295) 682 (282) 495 (95) 400 (1) 0 27 427 (148) (0) 278 0.28 0.28 278 0.28 0.40
FY13 2,838 (1,289) 1,548 (394) 1,250 (95) 1,155 (2) 0 34 1,187 (285) 0 902 0.301 0.301 902 0.301 0.270
FY14 3,149 (1,342) 1,807 (434) 1,459 (86) 1,374 (1) (1) 47 1,419 (273) 0 1,146 0.334 0.334 1,146 0.334 0.320
FY15 2,963 (1,325) 1,638 (419) 1,372 (153) 1,219 (10) 15 (115) 1,109 (272) 0 838 0.122 0.122 999 0.146 0.176
FY12 381 0 228 705 1,314 0 0 1,021 0 293 1,314
FY13 1,254 0 473 852 2,579 0 0 758 0 1,821 2,579
FY14 503 0 923 1,315 2,741 0 0 788 0 1,953 2,741
FY15 187 4 1,262 1,833 3,286 530 0 1,457 0 1,829 3,286
FY12 278 95 (47) 16 343 (69) 11 (59) (1) 0 (400) 0 (401) (117) 284 0.28
FY13 902 95 (437) 0 560 (321) 17 (304) 0 1,058 (440) 0 618 873 255 0.09
FY14 1,146 86 60 0 1,292 (570) (459) (1,029) 1 0 (1,014) 0 (1,013) (750) 262 0.08
FY15 838 153 79 0 1,070 (600) (354) (954) 189 344 (965) 0 (432) (316) 116 0.02
FY12 41.1 47.0 60.7 34.5 25.0 20.2 14.1 14.1 34.7
FY13 43.5 152.6 8.0 54.6 44.0 40.7 31.8 31.8 24.0
FY14 11.0 16.7 11.1 57.4 46.3 43.6 36.4 36.4 19.2
FY15 (5.9) (6.0) (56.4) 55.3 46.3 41.1 28.3 33.7 24.5
FY12 0.00 cash cash
FY13 0.00 cash cash
FY14 0.00 cash cash
FY15 0.22 cash cash
FY16E 2,191 (783) 1,407 (357) 1,222 (172) 1,050 (14) 26 123 1,185 (214) 0 970 0.141 0.141 885 0.129 0.116
FY17E 2,378 (806) 1,571 (364) 1,391 (184) 1,208 0 31 40 1,279 (256) 0 1,023 0.149 0.149 1,023 0.149 0.134
FY16E 240 4 1,337 1,724 3,305 530 0 1,507 0 1,797 3,304
FY17E 462 4 1,303 1,760 3,529 530 0 1,528 0 2,002 3,529
FY16E 970 172 181 0 1,324 (268) 0 (268) 0 0 (1,003) 0 (1,003) 53 1,056 0.15
FY17E 1,023 184 86 0 1,293 (150) 0 (150) 0 0 (921) 0 (921) 222 1,143 0.17
FY16E (26.1) (10.9) (11.5) 64.2 55.8 47.9 44.3 40.4 18.1
FY17E 8.5 13.8 15.6 66.1 58.5 50.8 43.0 43.0 20.0
FY16E 0.23 cash cash
FY17E 0.21 cash cash
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
