VGI Global Media Buy (FY16E TP Bt5.20)
Earnings Review
Close Bt3.70
Media & Publishing January 27, 2016
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
Earnings in line with expectation Price Performance (%)
Reiterate BUY with SOTP‐based TP of Bt5.20 After the results announcement, we maintain our earnings projections with improvement expected in FY17E for VGI. VGI’s share price is currently trading at FY16E PER of 26x, vs. PER of 45x for PLANB. We thus maintain our BUY call with the SOTP‐based TP of Bt5.20. 3QFY16 net profit in line VGI reported net profit of Bt232mn in 3QFY16 (Oct‐Dec 15), falling by 23% YoY and 11% QoQ, including extra gain of Bt9mn from asset and investment sales. Stripping out extra items, VGI delivered normalized profit of Bt223mn, ‐10% YoY +2% QoQ, in line with our expectation. Norm. profit fell YoY owing mainly to a revenue decline (‐34%) due to discontinuation of modern trade media management coupled with the drop of BTS‐related revenue (‐8%) on the weak economy. However, revenue from media management in office media and others jumped owing to building expansion (from 103 to 123) and the revenue contribution from media management from clock towers (10 provinces). On a quarter‐to‐quarter basis, norm. profit was flat owing to gross profit margin improvement and lower SG&A expenses.
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.131
0.149
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
7.6%
0.0%
Reuters / Bloomberg
VGI.BK/VGI TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
6,864.32
Par (Bt)
0.10
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m) Foreign limit / actual (%)
25.00/708.00 49.00/6.71
52 week High / Low (Bt)
6.65/3.44
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
14,779.00
NVDR (%)
2.10
Estimated free float (%)
29.47
Beta
0.94
URL
www.vgi.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 3A (Established)
Raenoo Bhandasukdi Analyst no. 17989
[email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5836
1HFY16 DPS of Bt0.05 announced VGI announced a 1HFY16 dividend of Bt0.05/share, implying a 68% dividend payout ratio, vs. our assumption of a 90% dividend payout ratio for the whole year. However, we maintain our DPS expectation of Bt0.116 for FY16E, implying a dividend yield of 3%. Progress of new media expansion VGI was recently appointed by Artista Media Limited Partnership as the sales agent to manage advertising screens at 219 condominiums (AP, LPN, U Delight, and Grand Unity Development); this is expected to expand to 300 and 400 buildings in 2016 and 2017, respectively. The company targets Bt100mn in revenue from this project for the three‐year contract. Meanwhile, the 20%‐owned affiliated company, Aero Media Ltd., has expanded its LED screens in 13 airports (including SBIA and DMK) from 32 screens to 342 screens currently. It has also been granted the rights to manage media for 19 Lion Air airplanes, 6,200 trolleys, 12 buggy buses, and gas stations. Maintain earnings projections As VGI’s norm. profit in 9MFY16 of Bt637mn accounted for 72% of our full‐year projection, we maintain our earnings estimates in FY16‐17E. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Mar Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm. profit (Btmn) Norm. EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Mar PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
FY13 2,838 902 0.301 902 0.301 8.01 0.270 0.607 FY13 12.44 7.97 6.16 7.22 85.30 cash
FY14 3,149 1,146 0.334 1,146 0.334 11.08 0.320 0.569 FY14 11.20 7.34 6.57 8.56 60.71 cash
FY15 2,963 999 0.122 838 0.146 (56.38) 0.176 0.266 FY15 30.65 8.43 14.04 4.71 44.29 18.75
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
FY16E 2,191 970 0.141 885 0.129 (11.44) 0.116 0.262 FY16E 26.45 9.42 14.29 3.10 53.53 16.14
FY17E 2,378 1,023 0.149 1,023 0.149 15.64 0.134 0.292 FY17E 25.08 8.11 12.83 3.59 53.88 3.38
Figure 1: Summary of SOTP‐based valuation for VGI Business
% Holding
VGI
Valuation Method
MACO
24.96
SOTP‐based
Value to VGI (Bt)*
DCF (WACC 8%)
5.00
Consensus target price of Bt1.60
0.20
5.20
Source: KT ZMICO Research, Note: *not including shares reserved for VGI‐W1
Figure 2: VGI’s PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X) 70 +2 S.D.
60 +1 S.D.
50 Avg. 40 30
-1 S.D. 20
-2 S.D.
Jan-16
Oct-15
Dec-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-15
Oct-14
Jan-15
Nov-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jan-14
Feb-14
Nov-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
May-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Oct-12
0
Nov-12
10
FY16E +1.0SD +0.5SD Average ‐0.5SD ‐1.0SD ‐1.5SD ‐2.0SD ‐2.5SD
PER (x) 48.0 43.0 38.0 33.0 28.0 23.0 18.0 13.0
Implied market price (Bt) 6.77 6.06 5.36 4.65 3.95 3.24 2.54 1.83
Upside/Downside vs. current market price (%) 82.9 63.9 44.8 25.8 6.7 (12.4) (31.4) (50.5)
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 3: VGI’s 3QFY16 (Oct‐Dec 15) earnings review Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Mar Revenue Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Other extra items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Normalized profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt/equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%) Revenue structure BTS‐related Modern Trade Office building & others
3QFY15 789 422 (119) 346 (2) 15 (73) 53 4 301 248 0.088
2QFY16 537 345 (97) 288 (4) 8 (45) 41 11 259 218 0.038
3QFY16 520 341 (84) 302 (2) 12 (53) 9 11 232 223 0.034
% YoY (34.2) (19.3) (29.7) (12.9) 31.2 (20.2) (26.3) (83.6) 138.3 (22.9) (9.8) (61.4)
% QoQ (3.2) (1.3) (14.2) 4.9 (35.8) 45.2 18.7 (78.7) (5.9) (10.5) 2.4 (10.5)
9MFY16 1,606 1,014 (274) 862 (9) 34 (148) 94 21 731 637 0.106
53.5 43.9 31.4 1.3 174.3 0.1 0.7 45.5
64.3 53.6 40.6 0.9 69.7 0.2 0.3 41.3 480 0 57
65.5 58.1 43.0 1.1 112.7 0.1 0.3 39.3
63.1 53.7 39.6 1.1 78.7 0.1 0.3 40.3
453 0 67
(8.2) 38.7
(5.6) 17.5
494 247 48
% YoY (31.6) (20.6) (22.1) (16.9) 50.0 (14.8) (25.8) 77.2 93.3 (11.1) (17.2) (55.6)
FY16E 2,191 1,407 (357) 1,222 (14) 37 (214) 86 26 970 885 0.141 64.2 55.8 44.3 0.7 75.0 0.3 0.3 48.8
Source: VGI, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
YTD (% of FY16E) 73.3 72.1 76.7 70.5 67.1 90.4 69.1 110.2 78.9 75.3 71.9 75.3
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, UWC. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
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