WHA Corporation - Global Alliance Partners
WHA Corporation Underperform (15E TP Bt37.50)
Company Update
Close Bt36.00
Property Development March 2, 2015
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
2014 net profit missed forecast
FY15
Consensus EPS (Bt) KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data Reuters / Bloomberg
FY16
1.706
2.113
114.5%
107.3%
WHA.BK/WHA TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
963.89
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
35.00/1,073.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/16.44
52 week High / Low (Bt)
39.12/22.84
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
3,216.00 1.13
Estimated free float (%)
24.47
Beta
1.45
URL
www.wha.co.th
CGR
Profit missed forecast and WHA announces no dividend Net profit in 2014 fell by 33.2% to Bt979m, 22.3% lower than our forecast on the back of a lower‐than‐expected GPM and high SG&A. Needing cash for the takeover, WHA will not pay a dividend from the 2014 earnings. We downgrade from Buy to Underperform with the TP of Bt37.50, based on the SoTP method, as the price upside is now minimal. Profit declined by 33.2% in 2014 WHA had 2014 revenue of Bt4.9bn, down 31.0% YoY due to lower income from asset sales of Bt4.3bn (‐34.1%). Net profit also fell by 33.2% to Bt979m, missing our forecast and the consensus by 22.3% and 29.5%, respectively. Asset‐sale GPM and SG&A causes of the profit miss The 2014 GPM of warehouse sales to REIT was 29.7%, lower than our estimate of 32.3%. Also, 2014 SG&A was Bt283m (14E: Bt170m), of which Bt187m or 65.9% came in 4Q14 alone. These are the reasons why the earnings result missed our forecast by 22.3%. Omission of dividend and stock split With so much pressure on leverage already from the HEMRAJ takeover, WHA decided to omit a dividend payment for the 2014 performance. Instead, par value will be cut from Bt1.0 to Bt0.10 per share. Price upside limited: Underperform We believe that the hype around the HEMRAJ deal has been reflected somewhat in the market price as the share price has risen by 17.7% since the beginning of this year. We have a TP of Bt37.50 (or Bt3.75 after par reduction) on WHA; with minimal price upside left, we downgrade the rating from Buy to Underperform.
Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Revenues (Btmn)
2,169
7,085
4,888
13,895
14,551
Net profit (Btmn)
212
1,464
979
4,789
5,730
Norm. profit (Btmn)
212
1,464
979
2,403
3,836
EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%)
Wasu Mattanapotchanart Analyst, no. 44357 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6268
0.30
1.59
1.02
3.66
4.38
‐86.3
430.0
‐36.1
260.4
19.6
Dividend (Bt)
0.00
1.10
0.00
1.64
1.96
BV (Bt)
4.08
4.52
5.28
15.42
18.16
FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
PER (x)
120.0
22.6
35.5
9.8
8.2
75.0
19.5
28.7
8.4
5.1
PBV (x)
8.8
8.0
7.7
2.3
2.0
Dividend yield (%)
0.0
3.1
0.0
4.6
5.4
10.8 1.14
41.6 1.20
22.7 2.28
38.8 1.08
26.0 0.62
EV/EBITDA (x)
ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 5
Figure 1: Quarterly earnings review Profit and Loss (Btmn)
FY Ended 31 Dec
4Q13
3Q14
4Q14
% YoY
% QoQ
2013
2014
% YoY
Rental income Income from sales of investment properties Total revenue
158 4,538 4,696
145 0 145
169 4,337 4,506
7.3 (4.4) (4.0)
17.0 N/A 3,015.9
500 6,585 7,085
551 4,337 4,888
10.1 (34.1) (31.0)
Gross profit
1,597
86
1,369
(14.3)
1,493.1
1,945
1,619
(16.8)
EBITDA
1,575
133
1,324
(15.9)
895.5
2,033
1,566
(22.9)
(63)
(79)
(118)
87.3
49.3
(183)
(295)
61.2
25
35
71
181.0
100.4
84
170
103.3
(221)
(1)
(220)
(0.7)
15,332.4
(249)
(224)
(10.0)
(1)
(1)
(2)
39.8
62.1
(1)
(8)
515.4
Net profit (loss)
1,290
5
915
(29.1)
17,356.5
1,463
979
(33.1)
Normalized profit (loss)
1,290
5
915
(29.1)
17,356.5
1,463
979
(33.1)
Reported EPS (THB)
1.41
0.01
0.95
(32.4)
17,356.5
1.59
1.02
(36.1)
Gross margin ‐ rental DC (%)
61.9
68.2
41.5
64.2
66.5
Gross margin ‐ sales (%)
33.0
N/A
29.7
24.6
29.7
Interest expense Other income Income tax Gn (Ls) from affiliates
EBITDA margin (%)
33.5
92.0
29.4
28.7
32.0
Net margin (%)
27.5
3.6
20.3
20.7
20.0
Current ratio (x)
1.3
1.0
4.5
1.3
4.5
Interest coverage (x)
24.6
0.7
10.0
9.9
4.5
Debt / equity (x)
1.3
3.4
0.0
1.3
1.8
BVPS (Bt)
4.5
3.7
5.3
4.5
5.3
ROE (%)
124.3
0.6
72.0
41.6
21.2
Source: WHA, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: Summary of the deal’s financing
Source: WHA, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 3: Tentative timeline
Source: WHA, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 5
Figure 4: Right offering to existing shareholders New shares for capital increase (m) Price per share Total amount (Btm)
350.5 25.50 8,938
Figure 5: Warrants to be given to shareholders who subscribed and paid for shares under the right offering New warrants (m) 117 Term of warrants 5 years from issuance date Allocated to shareholders who subscribe and Allocation made payment for newly issued shares at method the allocation ratio of 1 unit of warrants per 3 units of subscribed shares Exercise period Jun, Dec (1st exercise = 25 Dec 15) Exercise ratio 1:1 Exercise price (Bt) 35.00 Source: WHA, KT ZMICO Research
Source: WHA, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 6: Sources of repayment (most of the proceeds will be used to repay short‐term debt) Sources of repayment Full amount 70% for sales by HEMRAJ 1. Net proceeds of WHA office buildings 1,600 ‐ 1,800 1,600 ‐ 1,800 2. Net proceeds of HEMRAJ's RBFs #1 6,500 ‐ 7,000 4,550 ‐ 4,900 3. Net proceeds of WHA's WH #1 3,800 ‐ 4,000 3,800 ‐ 4,000 4. Net proceeds of WHA's WH #2 3,800 ‐ 4,000 3,800 ‐ 4,000 5. Net proceeds of HEMRAJ's RBFs #2 6,500 ‐ 7,000 4,550 ‐ 4,900 6. Listing of HEMRAJ's utility & power businesses 4,435 ‐ 6,035 3,105 ‐ 4,225 Total 26,635 ‐ 29,835 21,405 ‐ 23,825
Due date Jun ‐ Jul 15 Nov ‐ Dec 15 Nov ‐ Dec 15 Nov ‐ Dec 16 Nov ‐ Dec 16 2016 ‐ 17
Source: WHA, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 7: Guidance of gearing ratios by WHA
Source: WHA, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 5
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2012 2,169 (1,743) 426 (68) 507 105 402 (149) 45 298 (41)
2013 7,085 (5,141) 1,945 (132) 2,033 137 1,896 (183) 84 1,797 (249)
2014 4,888 (3,269) 1,619 0 1,566 69 1,497 (295) 170 1,372 (224)
0 0 212 0.30 0.00 212 0.30 0.00
0 (1) 1,464 1.60 0.00 1,464 1.60 1.10
0 (8) 979 1.02 0.00 979 1.02 0.00
2012 979 21 ‐ 26 7,272 8,298 990 2,605 5,410 510 2,887 8,298
2013 320 48 ‐ 43 10,637 11,049 290 4,202 6,895 918 4,154 11,049
2014 371 104 ‐ 67 15,410 15,952 657 8,369 11,472 964 4,480 15,952
2012 212 (217) 105 (99) (90) (2,752) 873 (1,878) 1,242 1,678 0 0 2,920 22 (5,074) ‐7.17
2013 1,464 (1,633) 137 136 214 (6,875) 5,122 (1,753) 981 0 (96) 0 884 974 (13,227) ‐14.41
2014 979 (1,287) 69 (610) (924) (3,861) 2,603 (1,257) 5,265 0 (46) 0 5,219 320 (7,767) ‐8.06
2012 881.7 (6.4) (86.3) 19.6 23.4 16.5 9.8 9.8 (16.0)
2013 226.7 301.2 431.7 27.4 28.7 25.6 20.7 20.7 (14.5)
2014 (31.0) (23.0) (36.4) 33.1 32.0 27.3 20.0 20.0 (18.0)
2015E 13,895 (8,748) 5,147 0 8,343 115 8,228 (1,618) 1,715 8,325 (500)
2016E 14,551 (8,456) 6,096 0 9,803 285 9,518 (1,126) 2,353 10,745 (988)
0 0 4,789 3.66 0.00 2,403 3.66 1.64
0 0 5,723 4.37 0.00 3,829 4.37 1.96
2015E 2,209 245 ‐ 1,774 74,498 78,726 14,563 23,168 45,683 1,314 33,042 78,725 2015E 4,789 (1,528) 115 3,412 8,332 3,829 (24,323) (20,494) 27,265 8,938 0 (22,203) 14,000 371 8,084 6.18
2016E 4,667 249 ‐ 1,780 65,956 72,652 3,084 16,304 34,361 1,314 38,291 72,653 2016E 5,723 (3,901) 285 7,193 11,100 6,120 5,736 11,856 (18,343) 0 (2,155) 0 (20,498) 2,209 11,630 8.88
2015E 184.3 432.7 260.4 37.0 60.0 30.3 34.5 17.3 (18.0)
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 5
2016E 4.7 17.5 19.5 41.9 67.4 33.4 39.3 26.3 (18.0)
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 5
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Company Update
Close Bt36.00
Property Development March 2, 2015
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
2014 net profit missed forecast
FY15
Consensus EPS (Bt) KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data Reuters / Bloomberg
FY16
1.706
2.113
114.5%
107.3%
WHA.BK/WHA TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
963.89
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
35.00/1,073.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/16.44
52 week High / Low (Bt)
39.12/22.84
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
3,216.00 1.13
Estimated free float (%)
24.47
Beta
1.45
URL
www.wha.co.th
CGR
Profit missed forecast and WHA announces no dividend Net profit in 2014 fell by 33.2% to Bt979m, 22.3% lower than our forecast on the back of a lower‐than‐expected GPM and high SG&A. Needing cash for the takeover, WHA will not pay a dividend from the 2014 earnings. We downgrade from Buy to Underperform with the TP of Bt37.50, based on the SoTP method, as the price upside is now minimal. Profit declined by 33.2% in 2014 WHA had 2014 revenue of Bt4.9bn, down 31.0% YoY due to lower income from asset sales of Bt4.3bn (‐34.1%). Net profit also fell by 33.2% to Bt979m, missing our forecast and the consensus by 22.3% and 29.5%, respectively. Asset‐sale GPM and SG&A causes of the profit miss The 2014 GPM of warehouse sales to REIT was 29.7%, lower than our estimate of 32.3%. Also, 2014 SG&A was Bt283m (14E: Bt170m), of which Bt187m or 65.9% came in 4Q14 alone. These are the reasons why the earnings result missed our forecast by 22.3%. Omission of dividend and stock split With so much pressure on leverage already from the HEMRAJ takeover, WHA decided to omit a dividend payment for the 2014 performance. Instead, par value will be cut from Bt1.0 to Bt0.10 per share. Price upside limited: Underperform We believe that the hype around the HEMRAJ deal has been reflected somewhat in the market price as the share price has risen by 17.7% since the beginning of this year. We have a TP of Bt37.50 (or Bt3.75 after par reduction) on WHA; with minimal price upside left, we downgrade the rating from Buy to Underperform.
Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Revenues (Btmn)
2,169
7,085
4,888
13,895
14,551
Net profit (Btmn)
212
1,464
979
4,789
5,730
Norm. profit (Btmn)
212
1,464
979
2,403
3,836
EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%)
Wasu Mattanapotchanart Analyst, no. 44357 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6268
0.30
1.59
1.02
3.66
4.38
‐86.3
430.0
‐36.1
260.4
19.6
Dividend (Bt)
0.00
1.10
0.00
1.64
1.96
BV (Bt)
4.08
4.52
5.28
15.42
18.16
FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
PER (x)
120.0
22.6
35.5
9.8
8.2
75.0
19.5
28.7
8.4
5.1
PBV (x)
8.8
8.0
7.7
2.3
2.0
Dividend yield (%)
0.0
3.1
0.0
4.6
5.4
10.8 1.14
41.6 1.20
22.7 2.28
38.8 1.08
26.0 0.62
EV/EBITDA (x)
ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 5
Figure 1: Quarterly earnings review Profit and Loss (Btmn)
FY Ended 31 Dec
4Q13
3Q14
4Q14
% YoY
% QoQ
2013
2014
% YoY
Rental income Income from sales of investment properties Total revenue
158 4,538 4,696
145 0 145
169 4,337 4,506
7.3 (4.4) (4.0)
17.0 N/A 3,015.9
500 6,585 7,085
551 4,337 4,888
10.1 (34.1) (31.0)
Gross profit
1,597
86
1,369
(14.3)
1,493.1
1,945
1,619
(16.8)
EBITDA
1,575
133
1,324
(15.9)
895.5
2,033
1,566
(22.9)
(63)
(79)
(118)
87.3
49.3
(183)
(295)
61.2
25
35
71
181.0
100.4
84
170
103.3
(221)
(1)
(220)
(0.7)
15,332.4
(249)
(224)
(10.0)
(1)
(1)
(2)
39.8
62.1
(1)
(8)
515.4
Net profit (loss)
1,290
5
915
(29.1)
17,356.5
1,463
979
(33.1)
Normalized profit (loss)
1,290
5
915
(29.1)
17,356.5
1,463
979
(33.1)
Reported EPS (THB)
1.41
0.01
0.95
(32.4)
17,356.5
1.59
1.02
(36.1)
Gross margin ‐ rental DC (%)
61.9
68.2
41.5
64.2
66.5
Gross margin ‐ sales (%)
33.0
N/A
29.7
24.6
29.7
Interest expense Other income Income tax Gn (Ls) from affiliates
EBITDA margin (%)
33.5
92.0
29.4
28.7
32.0
Net margin (%)
27.5
3.6
20.3
20.7
20.0
Current ratio (x)
1.3
1.0
4.5
1.3
4.5
Interest coverage (x)
24.6
0.7
10.0
9.9
4.5
Debt / equity (x)
1.3
3.4
0.0
1.3
1.8
BVPS (Bt)
4.5
3.7
5.3
4.5
5.3
ROE (%)
124.3
0.6
72.0
41.6
21.2
Source: WHA, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: Summary of the deal’s financing
Source: WHA, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 3: Tentative timeline
Source: WHA, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 5
Figure 4: Right offering to existing shareholders New shares for capital increase (m) Price per share Total amount (Btm)
350.5 25.50 8,938
Figure 5: Warrants to be given to shareholders who subscribed and paid for shares under the right offering New warrants (m) 117 Term of warrants 5 years from issuance date Allocated to shareholders who subscribe and Allocation made payment for newly issued shares at method the allocation ratio of 1 unit of warrants per 3 units of subscribed shares Exercise period Jun, Dec (1st exercise = 25 Dec 15) Exercise ratio 1:1 Exercise price (Bt) 35.00 Source: WHA, KT ZMICO Research
Source: WHA, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 6: Sources of repayment (most of the proceeds will be used to repay short‐term debt) Sources of repayment Full amount 70% for sales by HEMRAJ 1. Net proceeds of WHA office buildings 1,600 ‐ 1,800 1,600 ‐ 1,800 2. Net proceeds of HEMRAJ's RBFs #1 6,500 ‐ 7,000 4,550 ‐ 4,900 3. Net proceeds of WHA's WH #1 3,800 ‐ 4,000 3,800 ‐ 4,000 4. Net proceeds of WHA's WH #2 3,800 ‐ 4,000 3,800 ‐ 4,000 5. Net proceeds of HEMRAJ's RBFs #2 6,500 ‐ 7,000 4,550 ‐ 4,900 6. Listing of HEMRAJ's utility & power businesses 4,435 ‐ 6,035 3,105 ‐ 4,225 Total 26,635 ‐ 29,835 21,405 ‐ 23,825
Due date Jun ‐ Jul 15 Nov ‐ Dec 15 Nov ‐ Dec 15 Nov ‐ Dec 16 Nov ‐ Dec 16 2016 ‐ 17
Source: WHA, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 7: Guidance of gearing ratios by WHA
Source: WHA, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 5
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2012 2,169 (1,743) 426 (68) 507 105 402 (149) 45 298 (41)
2013 7,085 (5,141) 1,945 (132) 2,033 137 1,896 (183) 84 1,797 (249)
2014 4,888 (3,269) 1,619 0 1,566 69 1,497 (295) 170 1,372 (224)
0 0 212 0.30 0.00 212 0.30 0.00
0 (1) 1,464 1.60 0.00 1,464 1.60 1.10
0 (8) 979 1.02 0.00 979 1.02 0.00
2012 979 21 ‐ 26 7,272 8,298 990 2,605 5,410 510 2,887 8,298
2013 320 48 ‐ 43 10,637 11,049 290 4,202 6,895 918 4,154 11,049
2014 371 104 ‐ 67 15,410 15,952 657 8,369 11,472 964 4,480 15,952
2012 212 (217) 105 (99) (90) (2,752) 873 (1,878) 1,242 1,678 0 0 2,920 22 (5,074) ‐7.17
2013 1,464 (1,633) 137 136 214 (6,875) 5,122 (1,753) 981 0 (96) 0 884 974 (13,227) ‐14.41
2014 979 (1,287) 69 (610) (924) (3,861) 2,603 (1,257) 5,265 0 (46) 0 5,219 320 (7,767) ‐8.06
2012 881.7 (6.4) (86.3) 19.6 23.4 16.5 9.8 9.8 (16.0)
2013 226.7 301.2 431.7 27.4 28.7 25.6 20.7 20.7 (14.5)
2014 (31.0) (23.0) (36.4) 33.1 32.0 27.3 20.0 20.0 (18.0)
2015E 13,895 (8,748) 5,147 0 8,343 115 8,228 (1,618) 1,715 8,325 (500)
2016E 14,551 (8,456) 6,096 0 9,803 285 9,518 (1,126) 2,353 10,745 (988)
0 0 4,789 3.66 0.00 2,403 3.66 1.64
0 0 5,723 4.37 0.00 3,829 4.37 1.96
2015E 2,209 245 ‐ 1,774 74,498 78,726 14,563 23,168 45,683 1,314 33,042 78,725 2015E 4,789 (1,528) 115 3,412 8,332 3,829 (24,323) (20,494) 27,265 8,938 0 (22,203) 14,000 371 8,084 6.18
2016E 4,667 249 ‐ 1,780 65,956 72,652 3,084 16,304 34,361 1,314 38,291 72,653 2016E 5,723 (3,901) 285 7,193 11,100 6,120 5,736 11,856 (18,343) 0 (2,155) 0 (20,498) 2,209 11,630 8.88
2015E 184.3 432.7 260.4 37.0 60.0 30.3 34.5 17.3 (18.0)
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 5
2016E 4.7 17.5 19.5 41.9 67.4 33.4 39.3 26.3 (18.0)
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 5
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
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nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
