World Energy Outlook 2002
WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2002 Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division
World Energy Outlook Series z World Energy Outlook 1998 z World Energy Outlook - 1999 Insights: Looking at Energy Subsidies: Getting the Prices Right
z World Energy Outlook – 2000 z World Energy Outlook – 2001 Insights: Assessing Today’s Supplies to Fuel Tomorrow’s Growth
z World Energy Outlook – 2002 z World Energy Outlook – 2003 Insights: Global Energy Investment Outlook (forthcoming)
Structure of Report z Part A: Global Prospects Analytical framework Global trends Outlook for each fuel
z Part B: Regional Outlooks z Part C: Special Issues Alternative OECD Policy Scenario Energy and Poverty
World Primary Energy Demand 6,000 Oil
5,000
Mtoe
4,000
Natural gas
3,000
Coal
2,000 1,000 0 1970
Nuclear power
1980
1990
Hydro power Non-hydro renewables
2000
2010
2020
2030
Gas grows fastest in absolute terms & non-hydro renewables fastest in % terms, but oil remains the dominant fuel in 2030
Security of Energy Supplies
Regional Shares in World Primary Energy Demand 100% 13 80%
24
30
34
18 19
60%
11
43
11 10
40% 69
57
58
1990
2000
54
20%
47
0% 1971 OECD
Trans ition ec onomie s
2010
2 030
De v eloping c o untrie s
62% of the increase in world demand between 2000 and 2030 comes from developing countries, especially in Developing Asia
Increase in World Primary Energy Production 7,000 6,000
Mtoe
5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1971-2000 OECD
Transition economies
2000-2030 Developing countries
Almost all the increase in production occurs outside the OECD, up from 60% in 1971-2000
Share of Trade in World Fossil-Fuel Production 6,000 5,000
58%
Mtoe
4,000
28%
14%
3,000 2,000
9%
45% 16%
1,000 0 2000
2030
Oil
2000
2030
Gas
2000
2030
Coal
Share of inter-regional trade (%)
Energy trade between regions more than doubles between now and 2030, most of it in the form of oil
World-Oil Demand 140 120
mb/d
100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 OECD
2010 Transition economies
2020
2030
Developing countries
Oil demand grows in every region, fastest in the developing countries
World Oil Demand by Sector 2030
2000
Industry 16 %
Industry 19%
Other sectors 14%
Other sectors 16%
Power Generation 6%
Power generation 10% Transport 55%
75 mbd
Transport 64%
120 mbd
Around three-quarters of the increase in demand for oil will come from the transport sector.
Change in Oil-Product Demand, 2000-2030 OECD Pacific Transition economies OECD Europe Africa Middle East India Latin America Other Asia China OECD N. America -1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
mb/d Light
Middle
Heavy
Other
Demand shifts to light/middle distillate products, as oil use is increasingly concentrated in transport
World-Oil Production 120 100
mb/d
80 60 40 20 0 1980
1990 OPEC
2000
2010
2020
2030
Non-OPEC
Reliance on OPEC oil progressively increases
Oil-Import Dependence net imports as per cent of oil supply
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 OECD Pacific
OECD Europe
OECD South Asia N.America 2000
2010
China
East Asia
2030
Asia sees the biggest jump in import dependence, while OECD imports also continue to rise, especially in Europe
China: Oil Balance 14 12
mb/d
10 8 6 4
Net Imports
Net Exports
2 0 1980
1990
2000
Production
2010
2020
Consumption
Net oil imports surge from 1.7mb/d in 2001 to 9.8mb/d in 2030
2030
Net Oil Trade, 2030
5 1
16
1
13
46
1 3
10
2
7
3
5
8
6 1
0
US and Canada
Other OECD Europe
Africa
Indonesia
Mexico
Russia
Middle East
Other East Asia
Brazil
Other transition economies
Japan, Australia and New Zealand
Other Latin America
India
Korea
European Union
Other South Asia
China
Net exports Net imports
The Middle East strengthens its position as the world’s largest oil exporter
Mb/d
World Power-Generation Capacity Additions, 2000-2030 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600
GW
1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Gas
Coal
Hydro
Other renewables
Oil
Nuclear
Fuel cells
More than 40% of new capacity worldwide is gas-fired
Ordered Power-Generation Capacity Additions to 2010 250
200
GW
150
100
50
0 US and Canada Coal
Japan Oil
Gas
EU15 Other
Proven Gas Reserves 56.7 7.7
6.4
58.5 11.6
14.9 8.2
World total: 164 tcm at 1 January 2001
Ultimate remaining resources (including proven reserves) are an estimated 453 - 527 tcm
Investment in Energy Infrastructure
World Installed PowerGeneration Capacity 8,000 7,000 6,000
GW
5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 Existing capacity
New capacity
Nearly 5,000 GW of capacity is built in 2000-2030, almost half in developing countries
World Power-Generation Investment, 2000-2030 900 800
$ billion (2000 dollars)
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
North Europe Pacific China E. Asia Latin South Transition Africa Middle America America Asia economies East
Cumulative worldwide investment in new power plants amounts to $ 4.2 trillion, more than half in developing countries
Environment
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions 40,000
million tonnes of CO2
35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1970 World
1980 OECD
1990
2000
Transition economies
2010
2020
2030
Developing countries
World emissions increase by 1.8 % per year to 38 billion tonnes in 2030 – 70% above 2000 levels
Average annual per cent growth rate
World Primary Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1971-2000 Energy demand
2000-2030 CO2 emissions
Emissions increase faster than demand over the next 30 years, because the share of fossil fuels in the energy mix grows
OECD CO2 Emissions 15,000 14,000
Mt of CO2
13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 1970
1980
1990
Alternative Scenario
2000
2010
2020
2030
Reference Scenario
Emissions in the Alternative Scenario stabilise towards the end of the projection period
Energy Poverty
Map of Global Energy Poverty 18 28
20
801 815
509 56
570
221
332
530
96
Millions of People Without Electricity Millions of People Relying on Biomass
1.6 billion people have no access to electricity, 80% of them in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa
Energy and Poverty Access to Electricity z1.6 billion people today have no access to electricity zAbout 80% of these people are located in India (580 million) and sub-Saharan Africa (500 million) zFour out of five people lacking access to electricity live in rural areas zBy 2030, in the absence of radical new policies, 1.4 billion will still have no electricity
Energy and Poverty Traditional Biomass Use •
Today 2.4 billion people in developing countries rely heavily on traditional biomass for cooking and heating.
•
The use of biomass in traditional and inefficient ways have significant implications: • • • •
•
Productivity Health Gender Environment
By 2030, over 2.6 billion people in developing countries will continue to rely on biomass.
Energy Poverty • In the absence of radical new policies, energy poverty will still be a major issue in the next decades • Creating conditions to attract investment is the main challenge. Proper sequencing of market reforms are vital • Investment requirements for power generation in developing countries amount to 2.1 trillion$ for the next 30 years.
Implications of the WEO 2002 Projections z The projections highlight 4 strategic energy challenges: security of energy supplies investment in energy infrastructure threat of environmental damage caused by energy use uneven access of the world’s population to modern energy
z Governments will have to take strenuous action if these concerns are to be addressed
World Energy Outlook Series z World Energy Outlook 1998 z World Energy Outlook - 1999 Insights: Looking at Energy Subsidies: Getting the Prices Right
z World Energy Outlook – 2000 z World Energy Outlook – 2001 Insights: Assessing Today’s Supplies to Fuel Tomorrow’s Growth
z World Energy Outlook – 2002 z World Energy Outlook – 2003 Insights: Global Energy Investment Outlook (forthcoming)
Structure of Report z Part A: Global Prospects Analytical framework Global trends Outlook for each fuel
z Part B: Regional Outlooks z Part C: Special Issues Alternative OECD Policy Scenario Energy and Poverty
World Primary Energy Demand 6,000 Oil
5,000
Mtoe
4,000
Natural gas
3,000
Coal
2,000 1,000 0 1970
Nuclear power
1980
1990
Hydro power Non-hydro renewables
2000
2010
2020
2030
Gas grows fastest in absolute terms & non-hydro renewables fastest in % terms, but oil remains the dominant fuel in 2030
Security of Energy Supplies
Regional Shares in World Primary Energy Demand 100% 13 80%
24
30
34
18 19
60%
11
43
11 10
40% 69
57
58
1990
2000
54
20%
47
0% 1971 OECD
Trans ition ec onomie s
2010
2 030
De v eloping c o untrie s
62% of the increase in world demand between 2000 and 2030 comes from developing countries, especially in Developing Asia
Increase in World Primary Energy Production 7,000 6,000
Mtoe
5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1971-2000 OECD
Transition economies
2000-2030 Developing countries
Almost all the increase in production occurs outside the OECD, up from 60% in 1971-2000
Share of Trade in World Fossil-Fuel Production 6,000 5,000
58%
Mtoe
4,000
28%
14%
3,000 2,000
9%
45% 16%
1,000 0 2000
2030
Oil
2000
2030
Gas
2000
2030
Coal
Share of inter-regional trade (%)
Energy trade between regions more than doubles between now and 2030, most of it in the form of oil
World-Oil Demand 140 120
mb/d
100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 OECD
2010 Transition economies
2020
2030
Developing countries
Oil demand grows in every region, fastest in the developing countries
World Oil Demand by Sector 2030
2000
Industry 16 %
Industry 19%
Other sectors 14%
Other sectors 16%
Power Generation 6%
Power generation 10% Transport 55%
75 mbd
Transport 64%
120 mbd
Around three-quarters of the increase in demand for oil will come from the transport sector.
Change in Oil-Product Demand, 2000-2030 OECD Pacific Transition economies OECD Europe Africa Middle East India Latin America Other Asia China OECD N. America -1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
mb/d Light
Middle
Heavy
Other
Demand shifts to light/middle distillate products, as oil use is increasingly concentrated in transport
World-Oil Production 120 100
mb/d
80 60 40 20 0 1980
1990 OPEC
2000
2010
2020
2030
Non-OPEC
Reliance on OPEC oil progressively increases
Oil-Import Dependence net imports as per cent of oil supply
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 OECD Pacific
OECD Europe
OECD South Asia N.America 2000
2010
China
East Asia
2030
Asia sees the biggest jump in import dependence, while OECD imports also continue to rise, especially in Europe
China: Oil Balance 14 12
mb/d
10 8 6 4
Net Imports
Net Exports
2 0 1980
1990
2000
Production
2010
2020
Consumption
Net oil imports surge from 1.7mb/d in 2001 to 9.8mb/d in 2030
2030
Net Oil Trade, 2030
5 1
16
1
13
46
1 3
10
2
7
3
5
8
6 1
0
US and Canada
Other OECD Europe
Africa
Indonesia
Mexico
Russia
Middle East
Other East Asia
Brazil
Other transition economies
Japan, Australia and New Zealand
Other Latin America
India
Korea
European Union
Other South Asia
China
Net exports Net imports
The Middle East strengthens its position as the world’s largest oil exporter
Mb/d
World Power-Generation Capacity Additions, 2000-2030 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600
GW
1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Gas
Coal
Hydro
Other renewables
Oil
Nuclear
Fuel cells
More than 40% of new capacity worldwide is gas-fired
Ordered Power-Generation Capacity Additions to 2010 250
200
GW
150
100
50
0 US and Canada Coal
Japan Oil
Gas
EU15 Other
Proven Gas Reserves 56.7 7.7
6.4
58.5 11.6
14.9 8.2
World total: 164 tcm at 1 January 2001
Ultimate remaining resources (including proven reserves) are an estimated 453 - 527 tcm
Investment in Energy Infrastructure
World Installed PowerGeneration Capacity 8,000 7,000 6,000
GW
5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 Existing capacity
New capacity
Nearly 5,000 GW of capacity is built in 2000-2030, almost half in developing countries
World Power-Generation Investment, 2000-2030 900 800
$ billion (2000 dollars)
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
North Europe Pacific China E. Asia Latin South Transition Africa Middle America America Asia economies East
Cumulative worldwide investment in new power plants amounts to $ 4.2 trillion, more than half in developing countries
Environment
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions 40,000
million tonnes of CO2
35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1970 World
1980 OECD
1990
2000
Transition economies
2010
2020
2030
Developing countries
World emissions increase by 1.8 % per year to 38 billion tonnes in 2030 – 70% above 2000 levels
Average annual per cent growth rate
World Primary Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1971-2000 Energy demand
2000-2030 CO2 emissions
Emissions increase faster than demand over the next 30 years, because the share of fossil fuels in the energy mix grows
OECD CO2 Emissions 15,000 14,000
Mt of CO2
13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 1970
1980
1990
Alternative Scenario
2000
2010
2020
2030
Reference Scenario
Emissions in the Alternative Scenario stabilise towards the end of the projection period
Energy Poverty
Map of Global Energy Poverty 18 28
20
801 815
509 56
570
221
332
530
96
Millions of People Without Electricity Millions of People Relying on Biomass
1.6 billion people have no access to electricity, 80% of them in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa
Energy and Poverty Access to Electricity z1.6 billion people today have no access to electricity zAbout 80% of these people are located in India (580 million) and sub-Saharan Africa (500 million) zFour out of five people lacking access to electricity live in rural areas zBy 2030, in the absence of radical new policies, 1.4 billion will still have no electricity
Energy and Poverty Traditional Biomass Use •
Today 2.4 billion people in developing countries rely heavily on traditional biomass for cooking and heating.
•
The use of biomass in traditional and inefficient ways have significant implications: • • • •
•
Productivity Health Gender Environment
By 2030, over 2.6 billion people in developing countries will continue to rely on biomass.
Energy Poverty • In the absence of radical new policies, energy poverty will still be a major issue in the next decades • Creating conditions to attract investment is the main challenge. Proper sequencing of market reforms are vital • Investment requirements for power generation in developing countries amount to 2.1 trillion$ for the next 30 years.
Implications of the WEO 2002 Projections z The projections highlight 4 strategic energy challenges: security of energy supplies investment in energy infrastructure threat of environmental damage caused by energy use uneven access of the world’s population to modern energy
z Governments will have to take strenuous action if these concerns are to be addressed
