Planalytics WeatherCall February 2017
A
January 2017
Issued: January 30, 2017
It Was a Wet - But Not so Wintry - End to the Retail Year, Stifling Seasonal Demand. Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) Category Notables Heating Industry
US +58%
Boots
US +43%
Favorable
Sweaters
US +0.4%
Hats & Gloves
Unfavorable
CA +28%
Consumer Impact
Weather Notables
The warmer conditions vs. LY benefited restaurants as consumers weren't deterred by winter weather, resulting in a positive weather impact of $687 million. Traffic was up 4-7% in places like Dallas, Boston, Columbus, Atlanta and Raleigh.
• January in the U.S. was warmest since 2011 and wettest since 1997, although it had the least snow since 2005.
Conversely ,the warm temperatures did not help retailers move through winter goods with the apparel sector experiencing a xxxxx. While the warmer temperatures brought less snow and ice and helped overall commerce, there were more instances of rain. The frequency of precipitation events increased 27% over last year for the heavily populated Northeast. Nationally, the month will close with 16% more precipitation days than last year. Due to an increased level of precipitation, DIY was negatively impacted by $211 million. Key categories for this time of year such as heaters and snow removal products were down in many markets, and the wet weather curtailed some home projects. The increased precipitation did bring significant improvement to the U.S. drought situation. By the close of the month the U.S. Drought Monitor showed no ‘exception drought’, good news for the Home Improvement sector moving into the spring outdoor season.
Retail Traffic WDD by Segment
Weather Impacted Foot Traffic
Estimated impact of weather on foot traffic by retail segment
Estimated impact of weather on foot traffic at
Restaurants Home Centers Sporting Goods Outlet Stores
+1.4% -0.3% -1.2% -1.4%
Ruby Tuesday, Inc. +31% Advanced Auto Parts +12% Dollar Tree +9% NY & Company, Inc. -7%
From the Board Room “The warm temperatures throughout the greater part of the month kept demand soft for need-based winter items while the wet conditions drove consumers into indoor entertainment venues.” — Scott Bernhardt, President Planalytics
• Valentine’s Day in the U.S. was warmest since 2011 and wettest since 2002. Canada was warmest since 2009 and driest since 2011. • Presidents Day was warmest since 2011 and wettest since 2002, with the least snow since 2009 • The New England region was warmest in 55+ years, East South Central region since 1973, and South Atlantic region since 1989. • Precipitation was widespread with the Mountain region wettest since 1992, Pacific region since 1994, South Atlantic region since 1997, and Mid-Atlantic region since 2006. • Canada was warmest since 2009, wetter than LY and normal, with below normal snowfall. Warmest comps were in the East. February Temperature vs LY
February Precipitation vs LY
February Temperature and Precipitation Notables US Colder Than LY; Driest Since 2009; Least CA Colder Than LY; Driest Since 2010; Least 2012 – Los Angeles; 2013 – Dallas; Warmest Since Year – City 2009 – Orlando & Miami; 2014 – Coldest Since Year – City 2007 – Calgary; 2010 – Los Angeles Wettest Since Year – City 1994 – Philadelphia; 2002 – Cincinnati; Driest Since Year – City 1994 – Philadelphia; 2002 – Cincinnati; Snowiest Since Year – City Click To View Weekly Detail >
© 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
January 2017
Issued: January 30, 2017
It Was a Wet - But Not so Wintry - End to the Retail Year, Stifling Seasonal Demand. Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) Category Notables Heating Industry
US +58%
Boots
US +43%
Favorable
Sweaters
US +0.4%
Hats & Gloves
Unfavorable
CA +28%
Consumer Impact
Weather Notables
The warmer conditions vs. LY benefited restaurants as consumers weren't deterred by winter weather, resulting in a positive weather impact of $687 million. Traffic was up 4-7% in places like Dallas, Boston, Columbus, Atlanta and Raleigh.
• January in the U.S. was warmest since 2011 and wettest since 1997, although it had the least snow since 2005.
Conversely ,the warm temperatures did not help retailers move through winter goods with the apparel sector experiencing a xxxxx. While the warmer temperatures brought less snow and ice and helped overall commerce, there were more instances of rain. The frequency of precipitation events increased 27% over last year for the heavily populated Northeast. Nationally, the month will close with 16% more precipitation days than last year. Due to an increased level of precipitation, DIY was negatively impacted by $211 million. Key categories for this time of year such as heaters and snow removal products were down in many markets, and the wet weather curtailed some home projects. The increased precipitation did bring significant improvement to the U.S. drought situation. By the close of the month the U.S. Drought Monitor showed no ‘exception drought’, good news for the Home Improvement sector moving into the spring outdoor season.
Retail Traffic WDD by Segment
Weather Impacted Foot Traffic
Estimated impact of weather on foot traffic by retail segment
Estimated impact of weather on foot traffic at
Restaurants Home Centers Sporting Goods Outlet Stores
+1.4% -0.3% -1.2% -1.4%
Ruby Tuesday, Inc. +31% Advanced Auto Parts +12% Dollar Tree +9% NY & Company, Inc. -7%
From the Board Room “The warm temperatures throughout the greater part of the month kept demand soft for need-based winter items while the wet conditions drove consumers into indoor entertainment venues.” — Scott Bernhardt, President Planalytics
• Valentine’s Day in the U.S. was warmest since 2011 and wettest since 2002. Canada was warmest since 2009 and driest since 2011. • Presidents Day was warmest since 2011 and wettest since 2002, with the least snow since 2009 • The New England region was warmest in 55+ years, East South Central region since 1973, and South Atlantic region since 1989. • Precipitation was widespread with the Mountain region wettest since 1992, Pacific region since 1994, South Atlantic region since 1997, and Mid-Atlantic region since 2006. • Canada was warmest since 2009, wetter than LY and normal, with below normal snowfall. Warmest comps were in the East. February Temperature vs LY
February Precipitation vs LY
February Temperature and Precipitation Notables US Colder Than LY; Driest Since 2009; Least CA Colder Than LY; Driest Since 2010; Least 2012 – Los Angeles; 2013 – Dallas; Warmest Since Year – City 2009 – Orlando & Miami; 2014 – Coldest Since Year – City 2007 – Calgary; 2010 – Los Angeles Wettest Since Year – City 1994 – Philadelphia; 2002 – Cincinnati; Driest Since Year – City 1994 – Philadelphia; 2002 – Cincinnati; Snowiest Since Year – City Click To View Weekly Detail >
© 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
