Media (Digital TV) Industry Update
Neutral
September 2, 2015
Upbeat ratings for Workpoint1 and Ch8 Price Chart
Source: Aspen Share data (Media & Publishing) SET index
1,362.39
Sector index
67.04
52‐week high
88.88
52‐week low
61.85
Market capitalization (Bt m)
247,980.48
% of market cap
1.93
Avg daily turnover (m shares)
308.17
Beta
1.58
Sector Performance (%)
1M
3M
12M
Absolute
‐3.88
‐3.66
‐12.92
Relative
1.73
4.79
1.29
Anapat Wanuschaiyapruk Analyst, no 57076
[email protected] 66 (0) 2-624‐6289
Both WORK and RS enjoyed continuing popularity Workpoint1’s rating continued to increase further to 0.724 while Ch8’s rating rose to 0.459. Both stood firm at number 3 and 4, respectively. Ch3 dropped the most with the rating dipping 12% while its major rival, Ch7, saw its rating rise by 8%. MONO and OneHD both declined but still held on to their rankings. In terms of overall rankings, there was no big change except True4U, which surprisingly jumped into the top 10. It has become significantly more aggressive with many drama series in the pipeline and the continuation of the Thai Premier League. WORK working harder on primetime variety program We have reviewed WORK’s 2Q15 results and its rating outperformed peers in August. Workpoint1’s rating (age 4+, average 24 hours, nationwide) surpassed 0.7 for the first time. Ching100 started to regain audiences after moving from Ch3 to Workpoint1, with a current rating of 3.0 compared to 3.5 – 4.0 previously. Its primetime variety programs (weekdays after Prisana Fahlab) continue to edge up and almost reached 2.0 in August. WORK will adjust its schedule in 2H15, adding more variety programs and new drama series. Ch8’s drama series an audience hit and new boxing program added Ch8 remained on its rating uptrend. The higher rating was mainly due to better ratings on drama series and the new boxing program on Saturday beside the existing one on Sunday. Ch8’s rating has started to diverge from peers and we think it has the potential to become the second digital TV channel that turns a profit. Ch3’s affiliates continue to rise Ch3 was beaten in August by Ch7, with Figure 2 showing the converging path. However, both remain strong as the two leaders in the industry. 3SD continued rising as the rerun strategy is still working well. 3Family’s rating went up as well but it seems to be slowing down slightly. We have not yet seen significant improvement in 3SD’s programs. Thus, we think that only rerunning popular drama series will limit the ratings of 3SD to some degree. TV schedules start to look similar as competition gets more intense We think the TV program mix will become more similar going forward. In order to break its own ground, a channel needs a complete set of programs to attract different audiences. So far, we have seen all the major channels introduce a striking game show during primetime, which directly competes with Workpoint1. Drama series have been a major battlefield and this will continue. True4U will introduce three new drama series that feature magnet actors and actresses, while WORK also realizes that to sustain its ratings trend it should have a complete set of TV programs. WORK is shooting four drama series and they will be on‐air from 4Q15 onward. Sport programs will also take up more slots in the TV schedule, with football and boxing still the most attractive ones. Top pick: WORK There is positive sentiment on WORK after the analyst meeting. We and the street have revised up the earnings forecast and TP to reflect the better outlook. Therefore, we think WORK will outperform its peers with its strong earnings growth outlook. We keep our Buy recommendation with the 15E TP of Bt54.00/share.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: July and Aug TV ratings (4+, 24 hours, Nationwide)
Channel
Jul
Aug
%
2.600 2.796
Channel
8%
2.153 1.899 ‐12%
Jul
Aug
%
Channel
Jul
Aug
%
0.114
0.124
9%
0.042 0.057
36%
0.116
0.105
‐9%
0.039 0.055
41%
0.106
0.100
‐6%
0.045 0.048
7%
0.648 0.724
12%
0.390 0.459
18%
0.095
0.100
5%
0.043 0.042
‐2%
0.329 0.308
‐6%
0.087
0.088
1%
0.039 0.041
5%
0.245 0.216 ‐12%
0.070
0.079
13%
0.025 0.027
8%
0.220 0.213
‐3%
0.057
0.066
16%
0.023 0.025
9%
0.188 0.213
13%
0.055
0.061
11%
0.020 0.019
‐5%
0.093 0.143
54%
0.052
0.059
13%
0.015 0.018
20%
Source: AGB Nielsen, KT Zmico Figure 2: Ratings of Ch7 and Ch3
Figure 3: Ratings of new digital channels
4
0.8
3.5 0.6
3 2.5
0.4
2 1.5
0.2
1 0.5
WORK
CH3
RS
MONO
OneHD
Source: AGB Nielsen, KT Zmico
Figure 4: Ratings of BEC’s channels
Figure 5: Ratings of Ch5, Ch9, Thai PBS 0.25
0.6
2.50
0.20
0.5
2.00
0.15
1.50
08/15
07/15
06/15
05/15
3SD
Source: AGB Nielsen, KT Zmico
3.00
04/15
03/15
02/15
01/15
12/14
11/14
10/14
09/14
08/14
07/14
06/14
05/14
08/15
07/15
06/15
05/15
04/15
03/15
02/15
01/15
12/14
11/14
10/14
09/14
08/14
07/14
06/14
05/14
04/14
03/14
CH7
04/14
0
0
Thairath
0.4 0.3
CH3 (LHS)
3FAMILY (RHS)
Source: AGB Nielsen, KT Zmico
3SD (RHS)
0.2 0.1
MCOT
CH5
TPBS
Source: AGB Nielsen, KT Zmico
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
08/15
07/15
06/15
05/15
04/15
03/15
02/15
01/15
12/14
11/14
10/14
09/14
08/14
07/14
06/14
0 05/14
07/15
05/15
03/15
01/15
11/14
09/14
0.00 07/14
0.00 05/14
0.05
03/14
0.50
04/14
1.00
03/14
0.10
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for GPSC, U, LOXLEY, CEN, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, PLE KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of ASEFA
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
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900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
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Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
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Telephone: 083-490-2873
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
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A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
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Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.