Media (Digital TV) Industry Update
Neutral
November 4, 2015
Entering low season for ad spending with rating hikes Price chart
Source: Aspen Share data (Media & Publishing) SET index
1,412.62
Sector index
64.45
52‐week high
88.88
52‐week low
61.85
Market capitalization (Bt m)
239,288.70
% of market cap
1.79
Avg daily turnover (m shares)
277.03
Beta
1.89
Sector Performance (%)
1M
3M
12M
Absolute
‐0.15
‐7.78
‐19.05
Relative
‐3.63
‐6.23
‐10.18
Anapat Wanuschaiyapruk Analyst, no 57076
[email protected] 66 (0) 2-624‐6289
All the main players saw higher ratings as TV audience expanded The average audience size increased 9% industry‐wide with the new digital channels (overall ratings increased 11%) beating old analog peers. The top eight channels all benefited with rating hikes ranging from 4% to 29% (Figure 1). Ch7’s rating increased for a third month in a row with its success in super primetime drama series and pre‐news series “Sao Noi Aoi Kwan”, which received the highest rating in the industry in Oct. Workpoint1: the success of Dok Mai Lai Pad Korn Workpoint1 has expanded its franchise into drama series and its attempt seems to be working this time. Its “Dok Mai Lai Pad Korn” was the only new program in Oct and was run during primetime over weekend. It became a key factor helping to increase Workpoint1’s rating by 13%. We look for continued success in WORK’s next drama series, which will help drive Workpoint1’s rating above 1.00 (4+, 24hr, nationwide) and create better prospects for ad rates. MONO29: Just waiting until ratings turn to profit MONO29’s rating was above 4.0 for the first time, jumping 25%MoM and remaining at number five in the industry. The improvement in ratings is very impressive so far, as it continues to fill in the schedule with blockbuster movies and popular series. However, it remains difficult for MONO to turn the ratings into profit. We expect a further loss in 3Q15 and earnings for this year will end up negative too due to high content costs. BEC expects negative revenue growth this year Ch3’s rating increased 10% on the back of the success of the super primetime drama series “Hong Hoon” and The Voice (Thailand) on Saturday. However, regarding the outlook, BEC’s management has admitted that its top line will decline by 8% – 10% from 2014 as the competition remains high. 3HD’s schedule will be reshuffled more frequently while 3SD will focus on sports content. The management expects 3SD to be among the top four channels. Thairath TV as an up‐and‐coming competitor In September, the World Cup qualifier Thai‐Iraq broadcast broke new ground for ratings of a football match nationwide with an average rating at 7.5. In October, the match between Thai and Vietnam set a new record with an average rating at 12.0, which was the main factor causing its TV rating to skyrocket by 29%. Many channels have turned their focus to sports content and the competition will get more intense. Blackout of TV Pool’s channels Thai TV and MVTV Family (Loca) were blacked out on 2nd Nov after TV Pool missed the deadline to pay the second installment of the TV license fee. According to the Secretary General of NBTC, the blackout was a decision made by the TV Pool group itself, not the NBTC. There should be another round of talks and negotiations regarding the termination of TV licenses. We believe many operators want to exit this business and many of them might not make it through next year. Top pick: WORK WORK remains our top pick as we see a high possibility that it will increase its ad rate, which is still cheaper than old channels, and maintain high ad time utilization. The current market price now provides 38% upside and we maintain our Buy recommendation with the 16E TP of Bt58.50/share.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: Sep and Oct TV ratings (4+, 24 hours, Nationwide) Channel
Sep
Oct
%
Channel
Sep
Oct
%
Channel
Sep
Oct
%
2.849 3.108
9%
0.159
0.150
‐6%
0.068 0.058 ‐15%
1.798 1.972
10%
0.119
0.144
21%
0.058 0.056
‐3%
0.716 0.811
13%
0.110
0.108
‐2%
0.052 0.048
‐8%
0.502 0.521
4%
0.089
0.103
16%
0.040 0.046
15%
0.326 0.406
25%
0.087
0.101
16%
0.041 0.044
7%
0.247 0.272
10%
0.080
0.084
5%
0.030 0.035
17%
0.177 0.229
29%
0.101
0.080 ‐21%
0.023 0.027
17%
0.183 0.215
17%
0.066
0.065
‐2%
0.019 0.018
‐5%
0.211 0.204
‐3%
0.061
0.060
‐2%
0.017 0.016
‐6%
Source: AGB Nielsen, KT Zmico Research Figure 2: Ratings of Ch7 and Ch3
Figure 3: Ratings of new digital channels 1.0
4 3.5
0.8
3 2.5
0.6
2 1.5
0.4
1
0.2
0.5
CH3
WORK
RS
MONO
OneHD
3SD
10/15
09/15
08/15
07/15
06/15
05/15
04/15
03/15
02/15
01/15
12/14
11/14
10/14
09/14
08/14
07/14
06/14
05/14
09/15 10/15
08/15
07/15
06/15
05/15
04/15
03/15
02/15
01/15
12/14
11/14
10/14
09/14
07/14 08/14
06/14
05/14
04/14
03/14
CH7
04/14
0.0
0
Thairath
Source: AGB Nielsen, KT Zmico Research
Source: AGB Nielsen, KT Zmico Research Figure 4: Ratings of BEC’s channels
Figure 5: Ratings of Ch5, Ch9, Thai PBS
3.00
0.25
0.6
2.50
0.20
0.5
2.00
0.15
1.50
0.4 0.3
CH3 (LHS)
3FAMILY (RHS)
Source: AGB Nielsen, KT Zmico Research
3SD (RHS)
0.2 0.1
MCOT
CH5
TPBS
Source: AGB Nielsen, KT Zmico Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
10/15
08/15 09/15
07/15
05/15 06/15
03/15 04/15
02/15
12/14 01/15
11/14
09/14 10/14
08/14
0 06/14 07/14
09/15
07/15
05/15
03/15
01/15
11/14
09/14
0.00 07/14
0.00 05/14
0.05
03/14
0.50
05/14
1.00
03/14 04/14
0.10
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, KBS, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, CPI . KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, PLE, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY, TFG, BRR. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of KOOL, ORI, SCI, SR.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
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Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
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nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.