Media (Digital TV) Industry Update
Neutral
October 7, 2015
Not a good month for BEC
Source: Aspen Share data (Media & Publishing) SET index
1,370.69
Sector index
64.98
52‐week high
88.88
52‐week low
61.85
Market capitalization (Bt m)
241,132.69
% of market cap
1.86
Avg daily turnover (m shares)
301.92
Beta
1.72
Sector Performance (%)
1M
3M
12M
Absolute
0.93
‐7.54
‐15.83
Relative
0.98
‐0.82
‐5.29
Anapat Wanuschaiyapruk Analyst, no 57076
[email protected] 66 (0) 2-624‐6289
BEC loses, WORK flat, while RS, MONO and GRAMMY gain The three drama series of BEC have not received good feedback from their audiences and Ch3 lost to Ch7 during super primetime. Ch3’s rating declined 5% while Ch7 gained 2%. Moreover, 3SD’s rating retreated 14%. September was not a good month for BEC. WORK posted a rather disappointing flat TV rating. We observed that there were no new programs in September, which might be the main reason. RS, MONO, and GRAMMY enjoyed TV rating hikes as they continue to introduce new shows. Ch8’s rating increased 9%, MONO 6%, One 14%, and GMM Channel 13%. Workpoint1: more in October WORK has introduced three new programs for weekends in October – Good Morning Nang Fah, Sian Nak Sue, and Dok Mai Lai Pad Klorn. Its successful series, Phra Phutthachao, will be re‐run during 18.20 – 19.20 on weekdays. We think that significant improvement in the TV rating (if it occurs) will come from Dok Mai Lai Pad Klorn, which is its new drama series that features well‐known actors and actresses. WORK is now shooting several new dramas as it attempts to gain more market share. MONO29: to turn ratings into profits MONO’s price has declined over the past months as its earnings outlook is not supportive. Despite high ratings, the TV business continues to make a loss and the turnaround might be postponed until next year (previously called for 3Q or 4Q15). In September, it introduced The Choice (Thailand), a variety program that was moved from Ch7. If this program is successful, MONO’s earnings prospects will be much better. Ch8 has steadily improved since April The steady increase in ratings is good evidence that its strategy to focus on the same market as Ch7 has paid off. Its main content is still drama series but it also continues to introduce new variety programs. We believe that Ch8 will be the second DTT that turns to profit and RS will see a solid turnaround next year. GRAMMY: potential winner but it will take time GRAMMY just moved three sitcoms from BEC and MCOT over to One. Considering its content, GRAMMY has potential to be a winner since they seem to appeal to the young generation. However, One’s ratings are still up and down and it will take some time to see real success. Moreover, its earnings prospects make the stock unattractive. We think the company will continue to post heavy losses next year before a turnaround in 2017E. Thairath surprised the market during the major football match During the major football match on 8th Sep, the 2018 FIFA World Cup Qualifier Thailand v Iraq, Thairath TV’s rating hit 7.519 or about 4.94 million people, the highest in the industry at the time. We think this is negative for TV channels that are competing for live football matches as Thairath TV has gained popularity and branding. We see its popularity continuing and it should obtain more advertising spending in the future. Top pick: WORK WORK remains our top pick due to its very solid turnaround this year and potential to double profit next year. The current market price still provides 26% upside and we maintain our Buy recommendation with the 15E TP of Bt54.00/share.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: Aug and Sep TV ratings (4+, 24 hours, Nationwide) Channel
Aug
Sep
%
Channel
Aug
Sep
%
Channel
Aug
Sep
%
2.796 2.849
2%
0.143
0.159
11%
0.057 0.061
7%
1.899 1.798
‐5%
0.100
0.119
19%
0.055 0.058
5%
0.724 0.716
‐1%
0.100
0.110
10%
0.048 0.052
8%
0.459 0.502
9%
0.105
0.101
‐4%
0.042 0.041
‐2%
0.308 0.326
6%
0.079
0.089
13%
0.041 0.040
‐2%
0.216 0.247
14%
0.088
0.087
‐1%
0.027 0.030
11%
0.213 0.211
‐1%
0.061
0.080
31%
0.025 0.023
‐8%
0.213 0.183 ‐14%
0.059
0.068
15%
0.018 0.019
6%
0.124 0.177
0.066
0.066
0%
43%
0.019 0.017 ‐11%
Source: AGB Nielsen, KT Zmico
CH7
CH3
WORK
RS
MONO
OneHD
Source: AGB Nielsen, KT Zmico
Source: AGB Nielsen, KT Zmico
Figure 4: Ratings of BEC’s channels
Figure 5: Ratings of Ch5, Ch9, Thai PBS
3.00
0.25
0.6
2.50
0.20
0.5
2.00
0.15
1.50
3SD
09/15
08/15
07/15
06/15
05/15
04/15
03/15
02/15
01/15
12/14
11/14
10/14
09/14
08/14
07/14
04/14
09/15
08/15
07/15
06/15
05/15
04/15
03/15
02/15
01/15
12/14
0
11/14
0.1
0
10/14
0.2
0.5
09/14
0.3
1
08/14
0.4
1.5
07/14
0.5
2
06/14
0.6
2.5
05/14
0.7
3
04/14
0.8
03/14
4 3.5
06/14
Figure 3: Ratings of new digital channels
05/14
Figure 2: Ratings of Ch7 and Ch3
Thairath
0.4 0.3
CH3 (LHS)
3FAMILY (RHS)
Source: AGB Nielsen, KT Zmico
3SD (RHS)
0.2 0.1
MCOT
CH5
TPBS
Source: AGB Nielsen, KT Zmico
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
09/15
08/15
07/15
06/15
05/15
04/15
03/15
02/15
01/15
12/14
11/14
10/14
09/14
08/14
07/14
06/14
05/14
0 04/14
09/15
07/15
05/15
03/15
01/15
11/14
09/14
0.00 07/14
0.00 05/14
0.05
03/14
0.50
03/14
0.10
1.00
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, KBS, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, CPI . KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, PLE, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of KOOL, ORI, SCI.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
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Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
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2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
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Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
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Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
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333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
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Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
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Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.