Monthly Market Review Report-July 2016 GBCM Research Index ...
Monthly Market Review Report‐July 2016
GBCM Research
Index gained on better than expected Q2 earnings…
August 9, 2016
Index Performance
End Jul 16
End Jun 16
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
5,843.8
5,777.3
1.2%
8.1%
7,469.4
7,266.3
2.8%
15.3%
Industrial and Services sector majors reporting better than expected results for the quarter. Despite
7,497.4
7,308.8
2.6%
10.7%
sharp correction trend seen in the crude prices, the MSM Index remained resilient and closed the
3,196.1
3,235.7
‐1.2%
4.6%
892.0
886.3
0.6%
4.3%
On the back of holiday season and the holy month of Ramadan, the market activity remained range
MSM30 Index
bound in addition to dull volumes during the first two weeks of the month. The market gathered momentum by mid of the month with the onset of the Q2 earnings. We saw few of the Banks,
Financial Index Industrial Index
Services Index
month on a positive note amid better than expected earnings season. The MSM ended higher by 1.2% for the month and had gained 8.1% Year to Date (YTD), the second best performing market
Shariah Index
in the GCC region. Except for Services sector index, Financial, Industrial and Shariah indices ended
MSM 30 Index‐ Jul 2016
higher by 2.8%, 2.6% and 0.6% respectively. Market activity for July 2016: Overall traded volumes for the month stood at 295 million, while the
7/31/2016
7/29/2016
7/27/2016
7/25/2016
7/23/2016
7/21/2016
7/19/2016
remain as net sellers to an extent of RO 6.235 million.
7/17/2016
5,750
7/15/2016
extent of RO 5.9 million and RO 350K respectively for the month. Foreign investors continued to 7/13/2016
5,800 7/11/2016
previous month. On the participation front, Omani and GCC Investors remained as net buyers to an
7/9/2016
daily MSM turnover for July 2016 increased to RO 3.6 million as compared to RO 3.0 million in
5,850
7/7/2016
total market turnover stood at RO 61 million, the lowest monthly turnover since Nov 2012. Average
7/5/2016
5,900
7/3/2016
5,950
Aug 2016 Outlook‐ To trade range bound amid no triggers, Oil price to remain critical…
MSM Trading – Monthly Turnover – RO 61.0 million (USD 157.9 million)
Fig. In RO
Buy
Sell
Net Buy / (Sell)
53,267,047
47,317,288
5,949,758
GCC
2,616,460
2,266,250
350,210
Arabs
558,346
623,655
(65,309)
4,559,779
10,794,438
(6,234,659)
Omanis
Others Source: MSM, GBCM Research
Within the region, Qatar and UAE‐DFM markets revealed outperformance to end July on a stronger note gaining 7.3% and 5.2% respectively amid increase in the foreign investor inflows along with better than expected Q2 earnings. Saudi market closed lower by 3% tracking the fall in crude prices along with mixed set of results. Overall market participation remained dull in other markets during the holiday shortened month. The Q2 earnings season had revealed a mixed trend in the region.
We anticipate the local and the regional markets to reveal stock specific buying interest from the institutions amid the risk on rally seen in the global equities during the month. We advise investors to adopt bottom up approach in stock picking looking at stable fundamentals and reasonable valuations. On the other hand, the GCC markets may see volatility on prevailing low oil prices. End July 2016, MSM30 Index is trading at PE (Ann.) of 9.2X, PBV of 1.2X and Div. Yield at 5.4%.
1 | P a g e
Monthly Market Review Report‐July 2016
Volume Leaders for the Month 70,000
30.0%
60,000 21.4%
GBCM Research
28.4%
25.0%
50,000 20.0%
15.0%
40,000
7.9%
10.0%
15.4% 15.0%
8.8%
6.9%
6.5%
0.0% Bank Muscat
Al Anwar Holding
12.4%
Galfar
10.9%
10.0%
5.0%
Renaissance Bonds
14.8%
30,000 20,000
Gainers for the Month
25.0%
20.0%
10,000
5.0%
0
0.0%
Bank Nizwa
Al Jazeera Steel
Global Fin Inv
Al Batinah Dev
Oman United Ins Al Anwar Holding
Value Leaders for the Month 18.0%
Losers for the Month 12,000
16.1%
0.0%
15.6%
16.0%
10,000
12.0%
8,000
‐2.0%
14.0%
‐4.0%
10.0% 6,000
8.0%
‐6.0%
7.1% 6.3%
6.0%
5.7%
4,000
‐8.0%
‐7.8%
4.0%
0.0%
Renaissance Bonds
Source: MSM, GBCM Research 2 | P a g e
Al Anwar Holding
Al Jazeera Steel
‐8.5%
‐10.0%
0
Bank Muscat
‐8.6%
2,000
2.0%
‐7.3%
‐12.0%
Omantel
‐11.1% Al Anwar Ceramic
Source: MSM, GBCM Research
Muscat Gases
Natl Aluminium Al Jazeera Services Al Batinah Power
Monthly Market Review Report‐July 2016
Markets Performance ‐ Heat Map
GCC Markets
YTD (%)
Oman
1.2%
8.1%
Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (ADX)
‐3.0%
‐8.8%
5.2%
10.6%
1.7%
6.2%
Kuwait
1.6%
‐2.9%
7.3%
1.7%
3.3%
‐5.0%
GBCM Research
Energy
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
NYMEX WTI Crude
‐15.1%
‐1.9%
ICE Brent Crude
‐13.2%
0.9%
Crude Oil, Oman
‐11.0%
4.2%
NYMEX Natural Gas
‐1.4%
14.1%
NYMEX Gasoline
‐12.5%
‐9.1%
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
Gold Spot
2.2%
27.3%
Silver Spot
8.7%
46.8%
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
Global Markets
Commodities Performance ‐ Heat Map MTD (%)
Qatar Bahrain Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
S&P 500
3.6%
6.3%
Dow Jones
2.8%
5.8%
Nasdaq
6.6%
3.1%
FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Nikkei
3.4%
7.7%
Platinum Spot
12.1%
28.6%
4.8%
‐4.3%
LME Aluminium (Spot)
‐0.4%
9.1%
6.8%
‐3.8%
LME Copper (Spot)
1.6%
4.5%
6.4%
‐12.9%
Hang Seng
5.3%
‐0.1%
LME Zinc (Spot)
6.7%
40.8%
Sensex
3.9%
7.4%
LME Lead (Spot)
1.5%
0.9%
Shanghai
1.7%
‐15.8%
LME Nickel (Spot)
12.6%
20.6%
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
3 | P a g e
Precious/ Base Metals
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
Monthly Market Review Report‐July 2016
GBCM Research
| Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727| Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728| Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein.
4 | P a g e
GBCM Research
Index gained on better than expected Q2 earnings…
August 9, 2016
Index Performance
End Jul 16
End Jun 16
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
5,843.8
5,777.3
1.2%
8.1%
7,469.4
7,266.3
2.8%
15.3%
Industrial and Services sector majors reporting better than expected results for the quarter. Despite
7,497.4
7,308.8
2.6%
10.7%
sharp correction trend seen in the crude prices, the MSM Index remained resilient and closed the
3,196.1
3,235.7
‐1.2%
4.6%
892.0
886.3
0.6%
4.3%
On the back of holiday season and the holy month of Ramadan, the market activity remained range
MSM30 Index
bound in addition to dull volumes during the first two weeks of the month. The market gathered momentum by mid of the month with the onset of the Q2 earnings. We saw few of the Banks,
Financial Index Industrial Index
Services Index
month on a positive note amid better than expected earnings season. The MSM ended higher by 1.2% for the month and had gained 8.1% Year to Date (YTD), the second best performing market
Shariah Index
in the GCC region. Except for Services sector index, Financial, Industrial and Shariah indices ended
MSM 30 Index‐ Jul 2016
higher by 2.8%, 2.6% and 0.6% respectively. Market activity for July 2016: Overall traded volumes for the month stood at 295 million, while the
7/31/2016
7/29/2016
7/27/2016
7/25/2016
7/23/2016
7/21/2016
7/19/2016
remain as net sellers to an extent of RO 6.235 million.
7/17/2016
5,750
7/15/2016
extent of RO 5.9 million and RO 350K respectively for the month. Foreign investors continued to 7/13/2016
5,800 7/11/2016
previous month. On the participation front, Omani and GCC Investors remained as net buyers to an
7/9/2016
daily MSM turnover for July 2016 increased to RO 3.6 million as compared to RO 3.0 million in
5,850
7/7/2016
total market turnover stood at RO 61 million, the lowest monthly turnover since Nov 2012. Average
7/5/2016
5,900
7/3/2016
5,950
Aug 2016 Outlook‐ To trade range bound amid no triggers, Oil price to remain critical…
MSM Trading – Monthly Turnover – RO 61.0 million (USD 157.9 million)
Fig. In RO
Buy
Sell
Net Buy / (Sell)
53,267,047
47,317,288
5,949,758
GCC
2,616,460
2,266,250
350,210
Arabs
558,346
623,655
(65,309)
4,559,779
10,794,438
(6,234,659)
Omanis
Others Source: MSM, GBCM Research
Within the region, Qatar and UAE‐DFM markets revealed outperformance to end July on a stronger note gaining 7.3% and 5.2% respectively amid increase in the foreign investor inflows along with better than expected Q2 earnings. Saudi market closed lower by 3% tracking the fall in crude prices along with mixed set of results. Overall market participation remained dull in other markets during the holiday shortened month. The Q2 earnings season had revealed a mixed trend in the region.
We anticipate the local and the regional markets to reveal stock specific buying interest from the institutions amid the risk on rally seen in the global equities during the month. We advise investors to adopt bottom up approach in stock picking looking at stable fundamentals and reasonable valuations. On the other hand, the GCC markets may see volatility on prevailing low oil prices. End July 2016, MSM30 Index is trading at PE (Ann.) of 9.2X, PBV of 1.2X and Div. Yield at 5.4%.
1 | P a g e
Monthly Market Review Report‐July 2016
Volume Leaders for the Month 70,000
30.0%
60,000 21.4%
GBCM Research
28.4%
25.0%
50,000 20.0%
15.0%
40,000
7.9%
10.0%
15.4% 15.0%
8.8%
6.9%
6.5%
0.0% Bank Muscat
Al Anwar Holding
12.4%
Galfar
10.9%
10.0%
5.0%
Renaissance Bonds
14.8%
30,000 20,000
Gainers for the Month
25.0%
20.0%
10,000
5.0%
0
0.0%
Bank Nizwa
Al Jazeera Steel
Global Fin Inv
Al Batinah Dev
Oman United Ins Al Anwar Holding
Value Leaders for the Month 18.0%
Losers for the Month 12,000
16.1%
0.0%
15.6%
16.0%
10,000
12.0%
8,000
‐2.0%
14.0%
‐4.0%
10.0% 6,000
8.0%
‐6.0%
7.1% 6.3%
6.0%
5.7%
4,000
‐8.0%
‐7.8%
4.0%
0.0%
Renaissance Bonds
Source: MSM, GBCM Research 2 | P a g e
Al Anwar Holding
Al Jazeera Steel
‐8.5%
‐10.0%
0
Bank Muscat
‐8.6%
2,000
2.0%
‐7.3%
‐12.0%
Omantel
‐11.1% Al Anwar Ceramic
Source: MSM, GBCM Research
Muscat Gases
Natl Aluminium Al Jazeera Services Al Batinah Power
Monthly Market Review Report‐July 2016
Markets Performance ‐ Heat Map
GCC Markets
YTD (%)
Oman
1.2%
8.1%
Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (ADX)
‐3.0%
‐8.8%
5.2%
10.6%
1.7%
6.2%
Kuwait
1.6%
‐2.9%
7.3%
1.7%
3.3%
‐5.0%
GBCM Research
Energy
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
NYMEX WTI Crude
‐15.1%
‐1.9%
ICE Brent Crude
‐13.2%
0.9%
Crude Oil, Oman
‐11.0%
4.2%
NYMEX Natural Gas
‐1.4%
14.1%
NYMEX Gasoline
‐12.5%
‐9.1%
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
Gold Spot
2.2%
27.3%
Silver Spot
8.7%
46.8%
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
Global Markets
Commodities Performance ‐ Heat Map MTD (%)
Qatar Bahrain Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
S&P 500
3.6%
6.3%
Dow Jones
2.8%
5.8%
Nasdaq
6.6%
3.1%
FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Nikkei
3.4%
7.7%
Platinum Spot
12.1%
28.6%
4.8%
‐4.3%
LME Aluminium (Spot)
‐0.4%
9.1%
6.8%
‐3.8%
LME Copper (Spot)
1.6%
4.5%
6.4%
‐12.9%
Hang Seng
5.3%
‐0.1%
LME Zinc (Spot)
6.7%
40.8%
Sensex
3.9%
7.4%
LME Lead (Spot)
1.5%
0.9%
Shanghai
1.7%
‐15.8%
LME Nickel (Spot)
12.6%
20.6%
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
3 | P a g e
Precious/ Base Metals
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
Monthly Market Review Report‐July 2016
GBCM Research
| Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727| Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728| Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein.
4 | P a g e
