Monthly Market Review Report-Oct 2016 GBCM Research Weak Q3
Monthly Market Review Report-Oct 2016
GBCM Research Weak Q3 earnings weigh on markets…
November 10, 2016
Index Performance MSM30 Index Financial Index Industrial Index Services Index
Shariah Index
End Oct 16
End Sep 16
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
5,481.4
5,726.2
-4.3%
1.4%
7,096.9
7,376.9
-3.8%
9.6%
7,087.6
7,443.2
-4.8%
4.7%
3,027.5
3,108.6
-2.6%
-0.9%
in green. Rest of the regional markets ended on a negative note. Saudi Arabia raised $17.5 billion
841.1
874.5
-3.8%
-1.7%
through the bond sale which comprised of $5.5 billion in each of the five- and 10-year bonds and $6.5
The month saw MSM Index declining significantly by 4.27% to 5,481.44 points. The fall was on the back of disappointing Q3 corporate earnings announcements coupled with negativity that prevailed in the region on the back of low oil prices. The sub indices Financial, Industrial and Services closed the month down by 3.8%, 4.8% and 2.6% respectively. For the month (Oct 2016), Saudi has emerged as the star performer gaining 6.9% and Kuwait too ended
billion in 30-year debt. The Saudi government sold dollar-denominated bonds due in five years yielding 135 basis points over U.S. Treasuries, 10-year notes at a spread of 165 basis points and 30-year
MSM 30 Index- Oct 2016
securities at 210 basis points. At the same time the month saw huge volatility in the crude prices as the 5,750 5,700 5,650 5,600 5,550 5,500 5,450 5,400 5,350
meeting between the OPEC and non OPEC producers failed to reach an accord on the proposed output freeze or production cut. Brent prices declined by 4.2% for the month.
10/31/2016
10/29/2016
10/27/2016
10/25/2016
10/23/2016
10/21/2016
10/19/2016
10/17/2016
10/15/2016
10/13/2016
10/11/2016
10/9/2016
10/7/2016
10/5/2016
10/3/2016
Market activity for Oct 2016: Overall traded volumes for the month stood at 378 million, while the total market turnover stood at RO 77.5 million, as against the previous month turnover of RO 54.5
MSM Trading – Monthly Turnover – RO 77.500 million (USD 200.7 million) Fig. In RO Omanis GCC Arabs Others Source: MSM, GBCM Research 1|P a g e
Buy
Sell
Net Buy / (Sell)
63,978,359
56,463,406
7,514,953
8,855,239
8,287,386
567,853
851,528
439,367
412,161
3,815,591
12,310,557
(8,494,966)
million. Average daily MSM turnover for Oct 2016 increased to RO 3.7 million as compared to RO 3.4 million in previous month. On the participation front, Omani and GCC investors remained as net buyers to an extent of RO 7.5 million and 567k for the month. Foreign investors continued to remain as net sellers to an extent of RO 8.495 million.
Nov 2016 Outlook- Market to take cues from OPEC meeting at the end of the month… The much anticipated US elections at the beginning of Nov didn’t have considerable impact on the regional markets post the election results. The market is keenly watching on the much awaited make or break outcome of the OPEC meeting at the end of the month, as the same is likely to dictate the regional market’s direction going forward. We believe the MSM Index to trade sideways due to lack of fresh triggers amid lackluster volumes during the month. Overall the investors are advised to adopt cautious approach and follow bottom-up approach with focus to remain on strong fundamentals and deep valuations. End Oct 2016, MSM30 Index is trading at PE (Ann.) of 9.3X, PBV of 1.2X and Div. Yield at 5.4%.
Monthly Market Review Report-Oct 2016
GBCM Research
Volume Leaders for the Month
Gainers for the Month
30.0%
100,000
30.0%
90,000 25.0%
80,000 70,000
23.9%
20.0%
15.9%
20.0%
60,000
15.0%
50,000
15.0% 10.9%
40,000
8.1%
10.0%
25.0% 25.0%
6.7%
30,000 4.0%
5.0%
20,000
10.0%
7.3%
5.0%
3.1%
2.8%
10,000 0.0%
0 HSBC Bank
Bank Nizwa
Bank Muscat
Bank Sohar
14,000
16.5%
16.0%
12,000 10,000
12.0% 10.0% 7.2%
8.0%
HSBC Bank
Global Fin Inv
Oman Flour Mills Bank Muscat C C B 4.5
-25.0%
-24.3%
Al Hassan Engg
Al Anwar Ceramic
0.0% -10.0% -20.0%
13.1%
14.0%
Takaful Oman
Losers for the Month
Value Leaders for the Month 18.0%
0.0%
Galfar Engg
6.3%
6.0%
5.0%
-30.0%
8,000
-40.0%
6,000
-50.0%
4,000
4.0%
-18.1%
-16.7%
Bank Sohar
National Min Water
-60.0% -70.0%
2,000
2.0%
-80.0%
0.0%
0
Bank Muscat
HSBC Bank
Source: MSM, GBCM Research 2|P a g e
Omantel
Bank Nizwa
Asaffa Foods
-90.0%
-80.0% Bank Dhofar Right Issue
Source: MSM, GBCM Research
Monthly Market Review Report-Oct 2016
GBCM Research
Markets Performance - Heat Map GCC Markets
Commodities Performance - Heat Map MTD (%)
YTD (%)
Oman
-4.3%
1.4%
Saudi
6.9%
-13.0%
UAE (DFM)
-4.1%
UAE (ADX)
Energy
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
NYMEX WTI Crude
-4.0%
6.9%
5.8%
ICE Brent Crude
-4.2%
8.1%
-3.9%
-0.2%
Crude Oil, Oman
-4.3%
13.2%
Kuwait
0.0%
-3.8%
NYMEX Natural Gas
-3.4%
9.4%
Qatar
-2.5%
-2.5%
Bahrain
-0.1%
-5.5%
NYMEX Gasoline
-1.1%
13.3%
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
Gold Spot
-2.9%
20.3%
Silver Spot
-6.6%
29.2%
Platinum Spot
-4.3%
9.9%
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
Global Markets
Precious/ Base Metals
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
S&P 500
-1.9%
4.0%
Dow Jones
-0.9%
4.1%
Nasdaq
-2.3%
3.6%
FTSE 100
0.8%
11.4%
CAC 40
1.4%
-2.8%
LME Aluminium (Spot)
4.2%
15.6%
DAX
1.5%
-0.7%
LME Copper (Spot)
-0.1%
2.9%
Nikkei
5.9%
-8.5%
LME Zinc (Spot)
3.2%
54.0%
Hang Seng
-1.6%
4.7%
Sensex
0.2%
6.9%
LME Lead (Spot)
-3.4%
14.0%
Shanghai
3.2%
-12.4%
LME Nickel (Spot)
-0.9%
18.9%
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research 3|P a g e
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
Monthly Market Review Report-Oct 2016
GBCM Research
| Institutional Sales - Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage - Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research - Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727| Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728|
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein.
4|P a g e
GBCM Research Weak Q3 earnings weigh on markets…
November 10, 2016
Index Performance MSM30 Index Financial Index Industrial Index Services Index
Shariah Index
End Oct 16
End Sep 16
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
5,481.4
5,726.2
-4.3%
1.4%
7,096.9
7,376.9
-3.8%
9.6%
7,087.6
7,443.2
-4.8%
4.7%
3,027.5
3,108.6
-2.6%
-0.9%
in green. Rest of the regional markets ended on a negative note. Saudi Arabia raised $17.5 billion
841.1
874.5
-3.8%
-1.7%
through the bond sale which comprised of $5.5 billion in each of the five- and 10-year bonds and $6.5
The month saw MSM Index declining significantly by 4.27% to 5,481.44 points. The fall was on the back of disappointing Q3 corporate earnings announcements coupled with negativity that prevailed in the region on the back of low oil prices. The sub indices Financial, Industrial and Services closed the month down by 3.8%, 4.8% and 2.6% respectively. For the month (Oct 2016), Saudi has emerged as the star performer gaining 6.9% and Kuwait too ended
billion in 30-year debt. The Saudi government sold dollar-denominated bonds due in five years yielding 135 basis points over U.S. Treasuries, 10-year notes at a spread of 165 basis points and 30-year
MSM 30 Index- Oct 2016
securities at 210 basis points. At the same time the month saw huge volatility in the crude prices as the 5,750 5,700 5,650 5,600 5,550 5,500 5,450 5,400 5,350
meeting between the OPEC and non OPEC producers failed to reach an accord on the proposed output freeze or production cut. Brent prices declined by 4.2% for the month.
10/31/2016
10/29/2016
10/27/2016
10/25/2016
10/23/2016
10/21/2016
10/19/2016
10/17/2016
10/15/2016
10/13/2016
10/11/2016
10/9/2016
10/7/2016
10/5/2016
10/3/2016
Market activity for Oct 2016: Overall traded volumes for the month stood at 378 million, while the total market turnover stood at RO 77.5 million, as against the previous month turnover of RO 54.5
MSM Trading – Monthly Turnover – RO 77.500 million (USD 200.7 million) Fig. In RO Omanis GCC Arabs Others Source: MSM, GBCM Research 1|P a g e
Buy
Sell
Net Buy / (Sell)
63,978,359
56,463,406
7,514,953
8,855,239
8,287,386
567,853
851,528
439,367
412,161
3,815,591
12,310,557
(8,494,966)
million. Average daily MSM turnover for Oct 2016 increased to RO 3.7 million as compared to RO 3.4 million in previous month. On the participation front, Omani and GCC investors remained as net buyers to an extent of RO 7.5 million and 567k for the month. Foreign investors continued to remain as net sellers to an extent of RO 8.495 million.
Nov 2016 Outlook- Market to take cues from OPEC meeting at the end of the month… The much anticipated US elections at the beginning of Nov didn’t have considerable impact on the regional markets post the election results. The market is keenly watching on the much awaited make or break outcome of the OPEC meeting at the end of the month, as the same is likely to dictate the regional market’s direction going forward. We believe the MSM Index to trade sideways due to lack of fresh triggers amid lackluster volumes during the month. Overall the investors are advised to adopt cautious approach and follow bottom-up approach with focus to remain on strong fundamentals and deep valuations. End Oct 2016, MSM30 Index is trading at PE (Ann.) of 9.3X, PBV of 1.2X and Div. Yield at 5.4%.
Monthly Market Review Report-Oct 2016
GBCM Research
Volume Leaders for the Month
Gainers for the Month
30.0%
100,000
30.0%
90,000 25.0%
80,000 70,000
23.9%
20.0%
15.9%
20.0%
60,000
15.0%
50,000
15.0% 10.9%
40,000
8.1%
10.0%
25.0% 25.0%
6.7%
30,000 4.0%
5.0%
20,000
10.0%
7.3%
5.0%
3.1%
2.8%
10,000 0.0%
0 HSBC Bank
Bank Nizwa
Bank Muscat
Bank Sohar
14,000
16.5%
16.0%
12,000 10,000
12.0% 10.0% 7.2%
8.0%
HSBC Bank
Global Fin Inv
Oman Flour Mills Bank Muscat C C B 4.5
-25.0%
-24.3%
Al Hassan Engg
Al Anwar Ceramic
0.0% -10.0% -20.0%
13.1%
14.0%
Takaful Oman
Losers for the Month
Value Leaders for the Month 18.0%
0.0%
Galfar Engg
6.3%
6.0%
5.0%
-30.0%
8,000
-40.0%
6,000
-50.0%
4,000
4.0%
-18.1%
-16.7%
Bank Sohar
National Min Water
-60.0% -70.0%
2,000
2.0%
-80.0%
0.0%
0
Bank Muscat
HSBC Bank
Source: MSM, GBCM Research 2|P a g e
Omantel
Bank Nizwa
Asaffa Foods
-90.0%
-80.0% Bank Dhofar Right Issue
Source: MSM, GBCM Research
Monthly Market Review Report-Oct 2016
GBCM Research
Markets Performance - Heat Map GCC Markets
Commodities Performance - Heat Map MTD (%)
YTD (%)
Oman
-4.3%
1.4%
Saudi
6.9%
-13.0%
UAE (DFM)
-4.1%
UAE (ADX)
Energy
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
NYMEX WTI Crude
-4.0%
6.9%
5.8%
ICE Brent Crude
-4.2%
8.1%
-3.9%
-0.2%
Crude Oil, Oman
-4.3%
13.2%
Kuwait
0.0%
-3.8%
NYMEX Natural Gas
-3.4%
9.4%
Qatar
-2.5%
-2.5%
Bahrain
-0.1%
-5.5%
NYMEX Gasoline
-1.1%
13.3%
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
Gold Spot
-2.9%
20.3%
Silver Spot
-6.6%
29.2%
Platinum Spot
-4.3%
9.9%
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
Global Markets
Precious/ Base Metals
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
S&P 500
-1.9%
4.0%
Dow Jones
-0.9%
4.1%
Nasdaq
-2.3%
3.6%
FTSE 100
0.8%
11.4%
CAC 40
1.4%
-2.8%
LME Aluminium (Spot)
4.2%
15.6%
DAX
1.5%
-0.7%
LME Copper (Spot)
-0.1%
2.9%
Nikkei
5.9%
-8.5%
LME Zinc (Spot)
3.2%
54.0%
Hang Seng
-1.6%
4.7%
Sensex
0.2%
6.9%
LME Lead (Spot)
-3.4%
14.0%
Shanghai
3.2%
-12.4%
LME Nickel (Spot)
-0.9%
18.9%
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research 3|P a g e
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
Monthly Market Review Report-Oct 2016
GBCM Research
| Institutional Sales - Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage - Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research - Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727| Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728|
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein.
4|P a g e
