Monthly Market Review Report-May 2016 GBCM Research Profit
Monthly Market Review Report‐May 2016
GBCM Research
Profit booking trend seen along with dull participation…
June 6, 2016
End May 16
Index Performance
End Apr 16
MTD (%)
MSM30 Index continued its momentum during early part of the month (reached highs of 6,020 points
YTD (%)
MSM30 Index Financial Index Industrial Index
on 9th May) amid gain in oil prices and buying from the local institutions. While the market failed to
5,811.0
5,942.7
‐2.2%
7.5%
7,414.3
7,726.6
‐4.0%
14.5%
MSM ended lower by 2.2% for the month, still outperformed the regional indices with Saudi, Qatar and
7,167.6
7,207.1
‐0.5%
5.9%
UAE falling between 5‐7% levels. Added, the changes in MSCI FM/ EM index (deletion of stocks) lead to
3,254.8
3,224.8
0.9%
6.5%
872.8
880.6
‐0.9%
2.0%
carry on the momentum during later part of the month and witnessed traders profit booking trend.
increased activity in the GCC equities towards the end of the month.
Services Index
Shariah Index
Overall the regional indices remained volatile and sluggish towards the end of month. Oil witnessed further increase during the month touching $50 levels (NYMEX, Brent, Oman crude gained c. 5% in
MSM 30 Index‐ May 2016
May). The local Financial, Industrial and Shariah Indices closed lower during the month by 4.0%, 0.6% and 0.9% respectively. While Services index closed higher by 0.93%. During May 2016, except Bahrain
6,050 6,000 5,950 5,900 5,850 5,800 5,750 5,700
total market turnover stood at RO 104.264 million. Average daily market turnover in MSM for May 5/31/2016
5/29/2016
5/27/2016
5/25/2016
5/23/2016
5/21/2016
5/19/2016
5/17/2016
5/15/2016
5/13/2016
5/11/2016
5/9/2016
5/7/2016
5/5/2016
2016 declined to RO 4.7 million as compared to RO 6.3 million in previous month. On the 5/3/2016
Market activity for May 2016: Overall traded volumes for the month stood at 423 million, while the
5/1/2016
and Kuwait rest of the GCC indices closed the month on a negative note.
participation front, Foreign and GCC Investors remained as net sellers to an extent of RO 5.0 million and RO 952K for the month. Omani emerged as net buyers to an extent of RO 5.959 million.
MSM Trading – Monthly Turnover – RO 104.263 million (USD 270.0 million) Fig. In RO Omanis GCC Arabs Others Source: MSM, GBCM Research 1 | P a g e
June 2016 Outlook‐ Ramadan and summer to weigh on market volumes… GCC market volumes are likely to witness reduction with the summer kicking in along with the commencement of Holy month of Ramadan (early June 2016). The much anticipated OPEC meeting
Buy
Sell
Net Buy / (Sell)
89,303,597
83,344,060
5,959,537
7,532,689
8,485,176
(952,487)
and also certain Asian economies. We expect the oil market to balance towards the end of this fiscal
1,355,502
1,363,996
(8,495)
year, which would be critical for the regional economies. On the other hand, we are witnessing a series
6,071,806
11,070,361
(4,998,555)
during the first week of June became a non‐event for the oil price and also the markets. We still see the overall supply in the oil market continued to lower and the demand is showing improvement in USA
of foreign debt issuances by the GCC Sovereign (Oman is on the road show for its USD Bond issue) and this is expected to relieve the local banking sector liquidity issues during H2 2016. We advise investors to focus on stock specific opportunities and stay invested in quality names. End May 2016, MSM30 Index is trading at PE (Ann.) of 10.0X, PBV of 1.3X and Div. Yield at 5.1%.
Monthly Market Review Report‐May 2016
Volume Leaders for the Month
80,000
180.0%
18.0%
70,000
160.0%
60,000
140.0%
17.5%
14.0%
12.0%
50,000
10.0%
40,000
8.0%
5.7%
120.0% 100.0%
5.2%
30,000
60.0%
4.9%
20,000
4.0%
Al Anwar Holding
Bank Muscat
13.1%
5.3%
0.0% Oman Hotels
Ominvest
National Gas
Renaissance
United Finance
Salalah Mills
Value Leaders for the Month 12.0%
Losers for the Month 12,000
11.0%
0.0% ‐2.0%
10,000
10.0%
8.4%
‐4.0%
8.2% 8,000
8.0%
‐6.0%
6.3% 5.6%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
‐8.0%
6,000
‐10.0% 4,000
‐10.2%
‐12.0% ‐14.0%
2,000
‐12.1%
‐11.9%
Al Batinah Dev. Inv.
Oman Fisheries
‐11.2%
‐16.0% 0
Ominvest
Bank Muscat
Source: MSM, GBCM Research 2 | P a g e
18.3%
20.0%
0 Bank Sohar
47.4%
40.0%
10,000
2.0% Galfar Engg
155.6%
80.0% 5.5%
6.0%
0.0%
GBCM Research
Gainers for the Month
20.0%
16.0%
Galfar Engg
Omantel
‐18.0%
Sharqiyah Desal
‐16.9% HSBC Oman
Source: MSM, GBCM Research
Al Hassan Engg
Galfar Engg
Monthly Market Review Report‐May 2016
Markets Performance ‐ Heat Map
GCC Markets
GBCM Research
Commodities Performance ‐ Heat Map MTD (%)
YTD (%)
Oman
‐2.2%
7.5%
Saudi
‐5.3%
‐6.7%
UAE (DFM)
‐5.1%
5.2%
UAE (ADX) Kuwait‐ Price Index Qatar
‐6.5%
‐1.3%
0.2%
‐3.8%
‐6.4%
‐8.5%
Bahrain
0.1%
‐8.6%
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
Energy
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
NYMEX WTI Crude
5.2%
18.8%
ICE Brent Crude
4.5%
19.3%
Crude Oil, Oman
4.8%
23.1%
NYMEX Natural Gas
‐1.5%
‐8.8%
NYMEX Gasoline
0.3%
7.3%
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
Gold Spot
‐6.0%
14.5%
Silver Spot
‐10.4%
15.4%
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
Global Markets
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
S&P 500
1.5%
2.6%
Dow Jones Nasdaq FTSE 100 CAC 40
0.1%
2.1%
3.6%
‐1.2%
‐0.2%
‐0.2%
Platinum Spot
‐9.1%
9.7%
1.7%
‐2.8%
LME Aluminium (Spot)
‐7.5%
2.9%
2.2%
‐4.5%
LME Copper (Spot)
‐7.3%
‐0.2%
Nikkei
3.4%
‐9.5%
LME Zinc (Spot)
‐0.5%
20.7%
Hang Seng
‐1.2%
‐5.0%
Sensex
4.1%
2.1%
LME Lead (Spot)
‐6.1%
‐5.6%
Shanghai
‐0.7%
‐17.6%
LME Nickel (Spot)
‐10.8%
‐4.5%
DAX
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
3 | P a g e
Precious/ Base Metals
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
Monthly Market Review Report‐May 2016
GBCM Research
| Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727| Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728| Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein.
4 | P a g e
GBCM Research
Profit booking trend seen along with dull participation…
June 6, 2016
End May 16
Index Performance
End Apr 16
MTD (%)
MSM30 Index continued its momentum during early part of the month (reached highs of 6,020 points
YTD (%)
MSM30 Index Financial Index Industrial Index
on 9th May) amid gain in oil prices and buying from the local institutions. While the market failed to
5,811.0
5,942.7
‐2.2%
7.5%
7,414.3
7,726.6
‐4.0%
14.5%
MSM ended lower by 2.2% for the month, still outperformed the regional indices with Saudi, Qatar and
7,167.6
7,207.1
‐0.5%
5.9%
UAE falling between 5‐7% levels. Added, the changes in MSCI FM/ EM index (deletion of stocks) lead to
3,254.8
3,224.8
0.9%
6.5%
872.8
880.6
‐0.9%
2.0%
carry on the momentum during later part of the month and witnessed traders profit booking trend.
increased activity in the GCC equities towards the end of the month.
Services Index
Shariah Index
Overall the regional indices remained volatile and sluggish towards the end of month. Oil witnessed further increase during the month touching $50 levels (NYMEX, Brent, Oman crude gained c. 5% in
MSM 30 Index‐ May 2016
May). The local Financial, Industrial and Shariah Indices closed lower during the month by 4.0%, 0.6% and 0.9% respectively. While Services index closed higher by 0.93%. During May 2016, except Bahrain
6,050 6,000 5,950 5,900 5,850 5,800 5,750 5,700
total market turnover stood at RO 104.264 million. Average daily market turnover in MSM for May 5/31/2016
5/29/2016
5/27/2016
5/25/2016
5/23/2016
5/21/2016
5/19/2016
5/17/2016
5/15/2016
5/13/2016
5/11/2016
5/9/2016
5/7/2016
5/5/2016
2016 declined to RO 4.7 million as compared to RO 6.3 million in previous month. On the 5/3/2016
Market activity for May 2016: Overall traded volumes for the month stood at 423 million, while the
5/1/2016
and Kuwait rest of the GCC indices closed the month on a negative note.
participation front, Foreign and GCC Investors remained as net sellers to an extent of RO 5.0 million and RO 952K for the month. Omani emerged as net buyers to an extent of RO 5.959 million.
MSM Trading – Monthly Turnover – RO 104.263 million (USD 270.0 million) Fig. In RO Omanis GCC Arabs Others Source: MSM, GBCM Research 1 | P a g e
June 2016 Outlook‐ Ramadan and summer to weigh on market volumes… GCC market volumes are likely to witness reduction with the summer kicking in along with the commencement of Holy month of Ramadan (early June 2016). The much anticipated OPEC meeting
Buy
Sell
Net Buy / (Sell)
89,303,597
83,344,060
5,959,537
7,532,689
8,485,176
(952,487)
and also certain Asian economies. We expect the oil market to balance towards the end of this fiscal
1,355,502
1,363,996
(8,495)
year, which would be critical for the regional economies. On the other hand, we are witnessing a series
6,071,806
11,070,361
(4,998,555)
during the first week of June became a non‐event for the oil price and also the markets. We still see the overall supply in the oil market continued to lower and the demand is showing improvement in USA
of foreign debt issuances by the GCC Sovereign (Oman is on the road show for its USD Bond issue) and this is expected to relieve the local banking sector liquidity issues during H2 2016. We advise investors to focus on stock specific opportunities and stay invested in quality names. End May 2016, MSM30 Index is trading at PE (Ann.) of 10.0X, PBV of 1.3X and Div. Yield at 5.1%.
Monthly Market Review Report‐May 2016
Volume Leaders for the Month
80,000
180.0%
18.0%
70,000
160.0%
60,000
140.0%
17.5%
14.0%
12.0%
50,000
10.0%
40,000
8.0%
5.7%
120.0% 100.0%
5.2%
30,000
60.0%
4.9%
20,000
4.0%
Al Anwar Holding
Bank Muscat
13.1%
5.3%
0.0% Oman Hotels
Ominvest
National Gas
Renaissance
United Finance
Salalah Mills
Value Leaders for the Month 12.0%
Losers for the Month 12,000
11.0%
0.0% ‐2.0%
10,000
10.0%
8.4%
‐4.0%
8.2% 8,000
8.0%
‐6.0%
6.3% 5.6%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
‐8.0%
6,000
‐10.0% 4,000
‐10.2%
‐12.0% ‐14.0%
2,000
‐12.1%
‐11.9%
Al Batinah Dev. Inv.
Oman Fisheries
‐11.2%
‐16.0% 0
Ominvest
Bank Muscat
Source: MSM, GBCM Research 2 | P a g e
18.3%
20.0%
0 Bank Sohar
47.4%
40.0%
10,000
2.0% Galfar Engg
155.6%
80.0% 5.5%
6.0%
0.0%
GBCM Research
Gainers for the Month
20.0%
16.0%
Galfar Engg
Omantel
‐18.0%
Sharqiyah Desal
‐16.9% HSBC Oman
Source: MSM, GBCM Research
Al Hassan Engg
Galfar Engg
Monthly Market Review Report‐May 2016
Markets Performance ‐ Heat Map
GCC Markets
GBCM Research
Commodities Performance ‐ Heat Map MTD (%)
YTD (%)
Oman
‐2.2%
7.5%
Saudi
‐5.3%
‐6.7%
UAE (DFM)
‐5.1%
5.2%
UAE (ADX) Kuwait‐ Price Index Qatar
‐6.5%
‐1.3%
0.2%
‐3.8%
‐6.4%
‐8.5%
Bahrain
0.1%
‐8.6%
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
Energy
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
NYMEX WTI Crude
5.2%
18.8%
ICE Brent Crude
4.5%
19.3%
Crude Oil, Oman
4.8%
23.1%
NYMEX Natural Gas
‐1.5%
‐8.8%
NYMEX Gasoline
0.3%
7.3%
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
Gold Spot
‐6.0%
14.5%
Silver Spot
‐10.4%
15.4%
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
Global Markets
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
S&P 500
1.5%
2.6%
Dow Jones Nasdaq FTSE 100 CAC 40
0.1%
2.1%
3.6%
‐1.2%
‐0.2%
‐0.2%
Platinum Spot
‐9.1%
9.7%
1.7%
‐2.8%
LME Aluminium (Spot)
‐7.5%
2.9%
2.2%
‐4.5%
LME Copper (Spot)
‐7.3%
‐0.2%
Nikkei
3.4%
‐9.5%
LME Zinc (Spot)
‐0.5%
20.7%
Hang Seng
‐1.2%
‐5.0%
Sensex
4.1%
2.1%
LME Lead (Spot)
‐6.1%
‐5.6%
Shanghai
‐0.7%
‐17.6%
LME Nickel (Spot)
‐10.8%
‐4.5%
DAX
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
3 | P a g e
Precious/ Base Metals
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
Monthly Market Review Report‐May 2016
GBCM Research
| Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727| Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728| Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein.
4 | P a g e
