Monthly Market Review Report-June 2016 GBCM Research Range ...
Monthly Market Review Report‐June 2016
GBCM Research
Range bound trend prevailed amid dull volumes…
July 3, 2016
Index Performance
The local market traded within a narrow range during the month of June amid consolidation trend
End Jun 16
End May 16
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
5,777.3
5,811.0
‐0.6%
6.9%
7,266.3
7,414.3
‐2.0%
12.2%
emerged as the best performing market amid banking sector consolidation news and Qatar too gained
7,308.8
7,167.6
2.0%
7.9%
(+3.6% MTD) from the lower levels, while other GCC markets traded range bound. MSM ended
3,235.7
3,254.8
‐0.6%
5.9%
886.3
872.8
1.6%
3.6%
MSM30 Index Financial Index Industrial Index
seen. We saw reduced volatility in MSM despite several global events which lead to risk off trend. During the previous trading month, within the GCC region we saw UAE‐ Abu Dhabi gained +5.8% MTD,
marginally lower by 0.6% MTD amid sideways movement along with dull market participation.
Services Index
Shariah Index
The MSM Financial and Services Indices closed lower during the month by 2% and 0.6% respectively. While Industrial and Shariah index closed higher by 2% and 1.6% respectively. Within GCC for Q2 2016,
MSM 30 Index‐ June 2016
the MSM Index ended as the best performing market gaining 5.7% QTD, while Saudi gained 4.4% for the quarter. Most of the GCC markets have recovered sharply from the lows seen during the Q1 2016
5,900
amid recovery in the oil prices. The GCC Benchmark‐ S&P GCC Composite ended 1.4% higher during Q2
5,850
2016; MSCI GCC ended 0.9% higher for the quarter.
5,800
Market activity for June 2016: Overall traded volumes for the month stood at 362 million, while the
5,750
total market turnover stood at RO 66.394 million, the lowest monthly turnover since Nov 2012.
5,700
Average daily market turnover in MSM for June 2016 declined further to RO 3.0 million as compared 6/29/2016
6/27/2016
6/25/2016
6/23/2016
6/21/2016
6/19/2016
6/17/2016
6/15/2016
6/13/2016
6/11/2016
6/9/2016
6/7/2016
6/5/2016
6/3/2016
6/1/2016
5,650
to RO 4.7 million in previous month. On the participation front, Omani and GCC Investors remained as net buyers to an extent of RO 3.5 million and RO 600K respectively for the month. Foreign investors
emerged as net sellers to an extent of RO 4.021 million.
MSM Trading – Monthly Turnover – RO 66.394 million (USD 172.0 million)
Fig. In RO
Omanis
GCC
Arabs
Others Source: MSM, GBCM Research 1 | P a g e
July 2016 Outlook‐ Strength in Oil price and Q2 earnings to remain as triggers… We anticipate the local and the regional markets to trade within a narrow range during the first trading
Buy
Sell
Net Buy / (Sell)
58,339,106
54,801,125
3,537,981
3,850,409
3,250,495
599,914
season (we expect a mixed earnings trend) coupled with how the global market sentiments pans out.
592,873
709,370
(116,498)
End June 2016, MSM30 Index is trading at PE (Ann.) of 9.2X, PBV of 1.2X and Div. Yield at 5.5%. On
3,611,414
7,632,812
(4,021,398)
week of Q3 2016, we do expect the holiday shortened week to reveal low market participation. We expect the market to catch up post holidays and the trigger to come from the upcoming Q2 earnings
the technical front, we maintain the MSM support at 5,750 levels and the resistance is maintained closer to 5,860 levels. We would recommend bottom up approach and look at select stock specific opportunities in Oman and the GCC Region.
Monthly Market Review Report‐June 2016
Volume Leaders for the Month
12.0%
60,000
14.0%
50,000
12.0%
12.5% 14.3%
GBCM Research
Gainers for the Month
16.0% 14.0%
11.5% 10.5%
10.8%
40,000
10.0%
10.0%
Renaissance Bonds A
Bank Sohar Bonds 4.5%
9.6%
8.0%
7.7%
8.0%
10.2%
10.0%
6.7%
30,000 6.0%
6.0%
20,000
4.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0% Bank Sohar
Bank Nizwa
Galfar
HSBC Oman
10,000
2.0%
0
0.0% Al Maha Ceramics
Global Fin. Inv
National Gas
Value Leaders for the Month
Losers for the Month
16.0% 14.0%
13.8%
10,000
0.0%
9,000
‐2.0%
8,000
‐4.0%
7,000
‐6.0%
6,000
‐8.0%
5,000
‐10.0%
4,000
‐12.0%
3,000
‐14.0%
2,000
‐16.0%
12.0% 10.3%
10.0%
8.0%
6.5%
6.0%
5.8%
5.1%
4.0%
2.0% 0.0%
1,000
Bank Sohar
Bank Muscat
Source: MSM, GBCM Research 2 | P a g e
Galfar
Omantel
‐7.1%
‐6.9%
‐6.9%
Global Fin. Inv
Al Batinah Dev.
Al Hassan Eng
‐11.8%
‐18.0%
0
Oman Edu & Training Inv.
‐20.0%
Bank Nizwa
‐18.4% Oman Hotels
Al Anwar Holding
Source: MSM, GBCM Research
Monthly Market Review Report‐June 2016
Markets Performance ‐ Heat Map
GCC Markets Oman
GBCM Research
Commodities Performance ‐ Heat Map MTD (%)
YTD (%)
‐0.6%
6.9%
Saudi
0.8%
‐6.0%
UAE (DFM) UAE (ADX) Kuwait‐ Price Index
‐0.1%
5.1%
5.8%
4.4%
‐0.7%
‐4.5%
Qatar
3.6%
Bahrain
0.6%
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
NYMEX WTI Crude
‐2.4%
15.4%
ICE Brent Crude
‐1.2%
16.9%
Crude Oil, Oman
‐1.0%
19.0%
‐5.2%
NYMEX Natural Gas
22.7%
15.9%
‐8.0%
NYMEX Gasoline
‐6.9%
1.4%
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
Gold Spot
8.8%
24.6%
Silver Spot
17.0%
35.0%
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
Energy
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
Global Markets S&P 500
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
0.1%
2.7%
Dow Jones
0.8%
2.9%
Nasdaq
‐2.1%
‐3.3%
FTSE 100
4.4%
4.2%
Platinum Spot
4.6%
14.7%
CAC 40 DAX Nikkei Hang Seng
‐6.0%
‐8.6%
LME Aluminium (Spot)
6.4%
9.5%
‐5.7%
‐9.9%
LME Copper (Spot)
3.0%
2.9%
‐9.6%
‐18.2%
‐0.1%
‐5.1%
LME Zinc (Spot)
9.3%
32.0%
Sensex
1.2%
3.4%
LME Lead (Spot)
5.3%
‐0.7%
Shanghai
0.4%
‐17.2%
LME Nickel (Spot)
12.1%
7.1%
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research 3 | P a g e
Precious/ Base Metals
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
Monthly Market Review Report‐June 2016
GBCM Research
| Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727| Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728| Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein.
4 | P a g e
GBCM Research
Range bound trend prevailed amid dull volumes…
July 3, 2016
Index Performance
The local market traded within a narrow range during the month of June amid consolidation trend
End Jun 16
End May 16
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
5,777.3
5,811.0
‐0.6%
6.9%
7,266.3
7,414.3
‐2.0%
12.2%
emerged as the best performing market amid banking sector consolidation news and Qatar too gained
7,308.8
7,167.6
2.0%
7.9%
(+3.6% MTD) from the lower levels, while other GCC markets traded range bound. MSM ended
3,235.7
3,254.8
‐0.6%
5.9%
886.3
872.8
1.6%
3.6%
MSM30 Index Financial Index Industrial Index
seen. We saw reduced volatility in MSM despite several global events which lead to risk off trend. During the previous trading month, within the GCC region we saw UAE‐ Abu Dhabi gained +5.8% MTD,
marginally lower by 0.6% MTD amid sideways movement along with dull market participation.
Services Index
Shariah Index
The MSM Financial and Services Indices closed lower during the month by 2% and 0.6% respectively. While Industrial and Shariah index closed higher by 2% and 1.6% respectively. Within GCC for Q2 2016,
MSM 30 Index‐ June 2016
the MSM Index ended as the best performing market gaining 5.7% QTD, while Saudi gained 4.4% for the quarter. Most of the GCC markets have recovered sharply from the lows seen during the Q1 2016
5,900
amid recovery in the oil prices. The GCC Benchmark‐ S&P GCC Composite ended 1.4% higher during Q2
5,850
2016; MSCI GCC ended 0.9% higher for the quarter.
5,800
Market activity for June 2016: Overall traded volumes for the month stood at 362 million, while the
5,750
total market turnover stood at RO 66.394 million, the lowest monthly turnover since Nov 2012.
5,700
Average daily market turnover in MSM for June 2016 declined further to RO 3.0 million as compared 6/29/2016
6/27/2016
6/25/2016
6/23/2016
6/21/2016
6/19/2016
6/17/2016
6/15/2016
6/13/2016
6/11/2016
6/9/2016
6/7/2016
6/5/2016
6/3/2016
6/1/2016
5,650
to RO 4.7 million in previous month. On the participation front, Omani and GCC Investors remained as net buyers to an extent of RO 3.5 million and RO 600K respectively for the month. Foreign investors
emerged as net sellers to an extent of RO 4.021 million.
MSM Trading – Monthly Turnover – RO 66.394 million (USD 172.0 million)
Fig. In RO
Omanis
GCC
Arabs
Others Source: MSM, GBCM Research 1 | P a g e
July 2016 Outlook‐ Strength in Oil price and Q2 earnings to remain as triggers… We anticipate the local and the regional markets to trade within a narrow range during the first trading
Buy
Sell
Net Buy / (Sell)
58,339,106
54,801,125
3,537,981
3,850,409
3,250,495
599,914
season (we expect a mixed earnings trend) coupled with how the global market sentiments pans out.
592,873
709,370
(116,498)
End June 2016, MSM30 Index is trading at PE (Ann.) of 9.2X, PBV of 1.2X and Div. Yield at 5.5%. On
3,611,414
7,632,812
(4,021,398)
week of Q3 2016, we do expect the holiday shortened week to reveal low market participation. We expect the market to catch up post holidays and the trigger to come from the upcoming Q2 earnings
the technical front, we maintain the MSM support at 5,750 levels and the resistance is maintained closer to 5,860 levels. We would recommend bottom up approach and look at select stock specific opportunities in Oman and the GCC Region.
Monthly Market Review Report‐June 2016
Volume Leaders for the Month
12.0%
60,000
14.0%
50,000
12.0%
12.5% 14.3%
GBCM Research
Gainers for the Month
16.0% 14.0%
11.5% 10.5%
10.8%
40,000
10.0%
10.0%
Renaissance Bonds A
Bank Sohar Bonds 4.5%
9.6%
8.0%
7.7%
8.0%
10.2%
10.0%
6.7%
30,000 6.0%
6.0%
20,000
4.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0% Bank Sohar
Bank Nizwa
Galfar
HSBC Oman
10,000
2.0%
0
0.0% Al Maha Ceramics
Global Fin. Inv
National Gas
Value Leaders for the Month
Losers for the Month
16.0% 14.0%
13.8%
10,000
0.0%
9,000
‐2.0%
8,000
‐4.0%
7,000
‐6.0%
6,000
‐8.0%
5,000
‐10.0%
4,000
‐12.0%
3,000
‐14.0%
2,000
‐16.0%
12.0% 10.3%
10.0%
8.0%
6.5%
6.0%
5.8%
5.1%
4.0%
2.0% 0.0%
1,000
Bank Sohar
Bank Muscat
Source: MSM, GBCM Research 2 | P a g e
Galfar
Omantel
‐7.1%
‐6.9%
‐6.9%
Global Fin. Inv
Al Batinah Dev.
Al Hassan Eng
‐11.8%
‐18.0%
0
Oman Edu & Training Inv.
‐20.0%
Bank Nizwa
‐18.4% Oman Hotels
Al Anwar Holding
Source: MSM, GBCM Research
Monthly Market Review Report‐June 2016
Markets Performance ‐ Heat Map
GCC Markets Oman
GBCM Research
Commodities Performance ‐ Heat Map MTD (%)
YTD (%)
‐0.6%
6.9%
Saudi
0.8%
‐6.0%
UAE (DFM) UAE (ADX) Kuwait‐ Price Index
‐0.1%
5.1%
5.8%
4.4%
‐0.7%
‐4.5%
Qatar
3.6%
Bahrain
0.6%
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
NYMEX WTI Crude
‐2.4%
15.4%
ICE Brent Crude
‐1.2%
16.9%
Crude Oil, Oman
‐1.0%
19.0%
‐5.2%
NYMEX Natural Gas
22.7%
15.9%
‐8.0%
NYMEX Gasoline
‐6.9%
1.4%
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
Gold Spot
8.8%
24.6%
Silver Spot
17.0%
35.0%
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
Energy
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
Global Markets S&P 500
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
0.1%
2.7%
Dow Jones
0.8%
2.9%
Nasdaq
‐2.1%
‐3.3%
FTSE 100
4.4%
4.2%
Platinum Spot
4.6%
14.7%
CAC 40 DAX Nikkei Hang Seng
‐6.0%
‐8.6%
LME Aluminium (Spot)
6.4%
9.5%
‐5.7%
‐9.9%
LME Copper (Spot)
3.0%
2.9%
‐9.6%
‐18.2%
‐0.1%
‐5.1%
LME Zinc (Spot)
9.3%
32.0%
Sensex
1.2%
3.4%
LME Lead (Spot)
5.3%
‐0.7%
Shanghai
0.4%
‐17.2%
LME Nickel (Spot)
12.1%
7.1%
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research 3 | P a g e
Precious/ Base Metals
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
Monthly Market Review Report‐June 2016
GBCM Research
| Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727| Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728| Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein.
4 | P a g e
