Planalytics Flashweather 2015 0330
LAST WEEK: March 22, 2015 – March 28, 2015 (Retail Week 8 / March Week 4) The First Full Week of Spring Was Warmer Than LY, Particularly in the West, Lifting Seasonal Businesses. Severe Weather Drove Need-Based Purchasing in the Southern Plains. Late Season Snow in the North.
36.0
15.2
28.3
17.2
11.1
39.1
St. Louis, MO
1.31
0.20
1.11
0.79
29.9
Bellingham, WA
1.76
0.74
1.02
Charlotte, NC
57.4
46.6
0.72
10.8
53.3
Chicago, IL
0.96
0.31
0.65
Knoxville, TN
55.4
0.51
44.9
10.4
52.9
Fort Smith, AR
0.98
0.41
0.57
Wichita, KS
0.81
54.4
44.5
9.9
48.4
Jacksonville, FL
1.32
0.82
0.50
0.63
Buffalo, NY
27.5
28.5
-1.0
36.4
Shreveport, LA
0.17
2.40
-2.23
0.81
Chicago, IL
31.0
32.9
-1.9
41.0
Jackson, MS
0.69
3.74
-3.05
0.86
Binghamton, NY
24.6
26.8
-2.1
35.2
Pensacola, FL
1.98
5.61
-3.63
0.88
Cleveland, OH
30.1
32.6
-2.5
39.8
New Orleans, LA
0.36
4.26
-3.90
0.85
Syracuse, NY
25.8
28.3
-2.6
36.4
Memphis, TN
0.22
4.38
-4.16
0.93
Canada Summary and Callouts
• Last year was the coldest week 4 of March since 1965, and snowiest since 1982. Rainfall was near normal. • Warm Across Much of Canada, Although Largest Markets Were Cool. Nationally, it was the warmest 4th week of March since 2013. Vancouver had the warmest week 4 of March in over 55 years, and Calgary was warmest since 2010. Conversely, Montreal had its coldest week 4 of March since 1974, and Toronto was coldest since 1983, hindering demand for spring categories. • Dry Conditions With Limited Snowfall vs. LY & Normal. Warmer temperatures to last year helped suppress overall snowfall totals. Conditions were cold and wet enough for snow in Winnipeg, which had its most snowfall for week 4 of March since 2001. Rainfall was also well below normal but similar to last year. Vancouver was the wettest since 1988. Drier conditions to last year helped support store traffic. MEAN TEMPERATURE (°C) Period of Record: Mar 22 2015 to Mar 28 2015 City
2015
PRECIPITATION (mm) Period of Record: Mar 22 2015 to Mar 28 2015
2014 Change Normal
City
2015
2014 Change Normal
Calgary
3.5
-9.1
12.6
-1.6
Vancouver
54
33
21
24
Winnipeg
-2.7
-12.0
9.3
-4.3
Winnipeg
10
1
9
10
Edmonton
-1.4
-9.7
8.3
-5.1
Edmonton
10
11
-1
3
Quebec City
-6.5
-9.4
2.9
-2.5
Calgary
1
5
-4
4
Vancouver
10.6
8.2
2.3
7.2
Toronto
4
9
-5
8
Ottawa
-5.8
-6.9
1.1
-0.2
Ottawa
3
10
-7
13
Montreal
-5.0
-5.0
0.0
0.4
Montreal
5
16
-11
14
Toronto
-3.4
-3.4
0.0
1.9
Quebec City
2
18
-17
15
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
11-Apr
51.2
Duluth, MN
(Actuals for last 6 weeks. Outlook for next 2 weeks.) +2.4% +3.0% +2.2% +2.0% +1.4% +1.0% +0.3%+0.6% +0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -2.5% -3.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% -7.0% -6.2% 4-Apr
2014 Change Normal
28-Mar
2015
21-Mar
Billings, MT
Retail Foot Traffic WDD
City
14-Mar
2014 Change Normal
7-Mar
2015
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
28-Feb
City
PRECIPITATION (Inches) Period of Record: Mar 22 2015 to Mar 28 2015
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
21-Feb
MEAN TEMPERATURE (°F) Period of Record: Mar 22 2015 to Mar 28 2015
Compared to the Same Week Last Year
Temperature
• Weekend Review: A considerably colder air mass on the back of strong winds invaded the eastern half of the continent, plunging temperatures as far as 25°F below average. Consumers anxious for spring were challenged by the winter-like chill. The West continued to enjoy much warmer temperatures with widespread 60s, 70s, and 80s. Demand for tees, sandals, outdoor furniture, and grills was robust. Rain and snow showers exited New England Saturday; precipitation also fell in interior Canada, Northern Plains, and Midwest. • Last year the U.S. had its coldest 4th week of March since 2006 with the most rainfall in 5 years. Snowfall was well above normal due to a mid-week storm in the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions. • Another Warm Week to Last Year Driven by the West. Last week was the warmest 4th week of March since 2012, with all regions trending warmer than last year. Overall it was warmest in the West. For the second consecutive week, the Pacific region was warmest in over 55 years. San Diego, San Francisco, and Seattle each had their warmest 4th week of March in over 55 years. Portland, OR was warmest since 1978, Sacramento since 1986, and LA since 1988. Demand for spring businesses including apparel, consumables, auto appearance, and lawn care categories remained very strong. • Chilly in the Northeast and Midwest. Although mostly warmer than LY, the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Great Lakes were colder than normal. Boston had its coldest 4th week of March since 1974. Chicago, Buffalo, and Cleveland each had their coldest 4th week of March since 1983, limiting demand for spring products. • Severe Weather Season Kicked In. While severe weather this March has been off to its slowest start since 1970, things ramped up last week with over 350 reported incidents. This included ten tornadoes and nearly 270 reports of hail. Severe weather was focused in eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas on March 25th. • Cashing in my Rain Check. Overall it was the driest 4th week of March since 2013 with rainfall 47% below last year and well below normal. Conversely, Chicago has its wettest 4th week of March since 1997. • Spring Snow! Chicago had 6.4 inches of snow, the most for week 4 of March since 1983, and Minneapolis had 4.9 inches snow, the most since 1996. While snow was quick to melt, it limited demand for spring products.
Precipitation
U.S. Summary and Callouts
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product/category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather.
FANS North America +32% Denver +122% San Francisco +102% St. Louis +85% Baltimore -90%
GRASS SEED North America +11% Kansas City +34% Seattle +20% Dallas +15% Chicago -17%
FLEA & TICK CONTROL North America +10% Los Angeles +33% Orlando +17% Atlanta +9% Boston -2%
SHORT SLEEVE SHIRTS North America +5% Sacramento +28% Calgary +26% Oklahoma City +11% New York City +9%
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
THIS WEEK: March 29, 2015 – April 4, 2015 (Retail Week 9 / March Week 5)
Retail March to End on a Positive Note Given Stronger Warmth Interior, West. East Coast Demand Remains Challenging with Cooler Surges. Holiday Weekend Warm in the West, Cooler East.
Temperature
• Last year the U.S. had its warmest end to March since 2012 with the most rainfall since 2011. Snowfall exceeded normal levels due to a mid-week storm in the upper Midwest, Rockies, and interior Northeast regions. Canada had its coldest 5th week of March since 2007 with the most rainfall since 2009. Snowfall was well above normal and the most since 2007. The Easter holiday weekend last year (4/18 – 4/20) was mostly warm and dry, but began with record cold in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic for Good Friday. • Easter Run-Up Week Begins with a Cooler Push in the East; Wetness South. The run-up week to Easter is expected to begin with unsettled weather for much of the Southeast, adding pressure to already high rivers and streams. A reinforcing shot of cooler air will work into the Northeast and eastern Canada with some snow showers possible. • Clipper Systems to Bring Snow to Canada, Northern U.S. Quick-moving storms will bring snow to Canada from the Prairies to the Maritimes, although the heaviest amounts should remain north of the major St. Lawrence cities. A disturbance mid-week is expected to bring light snow from the upper Midwest into parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England. • Warmth, Storms Moving Into Interior. The above normal temperatures pervasive across the western states will spread further east into the Plains, Midwest, and Canadian Prairies. With highs in the 50s, 60s, and 70s, consumers will ramp up their spring purchasing. Rain and severe weather is possible. • Late Week Cool Down for the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada. While the Pacific Northwest and western Canada will trend mostly warmer than LY, a cooling trend will take hold by the end of the week. This will curtail spring selling momentum. Showers are possible on most days, particularly for western Canada. • Continued Warmth in the Southwest. Most of California and the Desert Southwest will continue to have temperatures warmer than last year and normal, driving demand for spring apparel, consumables, and lawn care businesses. • Holiday Weekend Outlook. As one system impacts the East late week with periods of showers and thunderstorms, another system will organize in the Central Plains bringing more wetness for the Midwest, East Coast, and eastern Canada. While most precipitation should be rain, snow is possible from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Conditions should start to dry out beginning on Saturday. Most of the West should be similar to warmer than normal.
Precipitation
This Week Outlook & Callouts
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
(Maps compare to the same week last year)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Sandals: +6%
Lawn Mowers: +4%
Sunglasses: +3%
Capris (Canada): +23%
More Favorable Similar Less Favorable
NEXT WEEK: April 5, 2015 – April 11, 2015 (Retail Week 10 / April Week 1)
April to Begin on a Much Cooler Note to LY Across North America, Limiting Spring Purchases. Opportunities Focused in the Southeast. Storms, Flooding, and Severe Weather Threats Increase.
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
Precipitation
• Next week last year, the U.S. had the warmest first week of retail April since 2002, driven by record heat in the West. Rainfall was near normal while snowfall was well below normal. Canada was warmer than normal with above normal rainfall but below normal snowfall. Easter Sunday last year (4/20/14) was the warmest since 2011 in both the U.S. and Canada, with below normal rainfall. • Drying Out for Easter Sunday, but Cool for Many. For those attending services or traveling for holiday dinner, anticipate a drier day as precipitation pushes off the East Coast. Cooler temperatures along with gusty winds are expected. Warmer temperatures will be confined to California and the Southwest. • Cooler Temperatures to Suppress Need for Spring Categories. Against strong warmth the same week last year, anticipate a much cooler trend for most markets. Year-over-year demand for warm weather apparel, cold drinks, lawn care, and auto appearance will decline. • A Warm Southeast to Carry the Week. While a challenging week for most, businesses in this region will benefit from a warmer trend, aiding seasonal sales. • Active Storm Pattern to Bring a Mixed Bag of Weather. Anticipate a stormy week including heavy rain in areas from Texas to the Ohio Valley. The threat of severe weather, including large hail and tornadoes, will ramp up in these areas. Rainfall and cooler temperatures will return to California and the Pacific Northwest. • Canada Cool and Wet. The presence of colder temperatures will keep the threat of wintry precipitation in the forecast across Canada. Spring demand will be limited.
Temperature
Next Week Outlook & Callouts
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
(Maps compare to the same week last year)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Lawn Fertilizers: -10%
Shorts (Canada): -10%
More Favorable Similar Less Favorable
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
36.0
15.2
28.3
17.2
11.1
39.1
St. Louis, MO
1.31
0.20
1.11
0.79
29.9
Bellingham, WA
1.76
0.74
1.02
Charlotte, NC
57.4
46.6
0.72
10.8
53.3
Chicago, IL
0.96
0.31
0.65
Knoxville, TN
55.4
0.51
44.9
10.4
52.9
Fort Smith, AR
0.98
0.41
0.57
Wichita, KS
0.81
54.4
44.5
9.9
48.4
Jacksonville, FL
1.32
0.82
0.50
0.63
Buffalo, NY
27.5
28.5
-1.0
36.4
Shreveport, LA
0.17
2.40
-2.23
0.81
Chicago, IL
31.0
32.9
-1.9
41.0
Jackson, MS
0.69
3.74
-3.05
0.86
Binghamton, NY
24.6
26.8
-2.1
35.2
Pensacola, FL
1.98
5.61
-3.63
0.88
Cleveland, OH
30.1
32.6
-2.5
39.8
New Orleans, LA
0.36
4.26
-3.90
0.85
Syracuse, NY
25.8
28.3
-2.6
36.4
Memphis, TN
0.22
4.38
-4.16
0.93
Canada Summary and Callouts
• Last year was the coldest week 4 of March since 1965, and snowiest since 1982. Rainfall was near normal. • Warm Across Much of Canada, Although Largest Markets Were Cool. Nationally, it was the warmest 4th week of March since 2013. Vancouver had the warmest week 4 of March in over 55 years, and Calgary was warmest since 2010. Conversely, Montreal had its coldest week 4 of March since 1974, and Toronto was coldest since 1983, hindering demand for spring categories. • Dry Conditions With Limited Snowfall vs. LY & Normal. Warmer temperatures to last year helped suppress overall snowfall totals. Conditions were cold and wet enough for snow in Winnipeg, which had its most snowfall for week 4 of March since 2001. Rainfall was also well below normal but similar to last year. Vancouver was the wettest since 1988. Drier conditions to last year helped support store traffic. MEAN TEMPERATURE (°C) Period of Record: Mar 22 2015 to Mar 28 2015 City
2015
PRECIPITATION (mm) Period of Record: Mar 22 2015 to Mar 28 2015
2014 Change Normal
City
2015
2014 Change Normal
Calgary
3.5
-9.1
12.6
-1.6
Vancouver
54
33
21
24
Winnipeg
-2.7
-12.0
9.3
-4.3
Winnipeg
10
1
9
10
Edmonton
-1.4
-9.7
8.3
-5.1
Edmonton
10
11
-1
3
Quebec City
-6.5
-9.4
2.9
-2.5
Calgary
1
5
-4
4
Vancouver
10.6
8.2
2.3
7.2
Toronto
4
9
-5
8
Ottawa
-5.8
-6.9
1.1
-0.2
Ottawa
3
10
-7
13
Montreal
-5.0
-5.0
0.0
0.4
Montreal
5
16
-11
14
Toronto
-3.4
-3.4
0.0
1.9
Quebec City
2
18
-17
15
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
11-Apr
51.2
Duluth, MN
(Actuals for last 6 weeks. Outlook for next 2 weeks.) +2.4% +3.0% +2.2% +2.0% +1.4% +1.0% +0.3%+0.6% +0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -2.5% -3.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% -7.0% -6.2% 4-Apr
2014 Change Normal
28-Mar
2015
21-Mar
Billings, MT
Retail Foot Traffic WDD
City
14-Mar
2014 Change Normal
7-Mar
2015
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
28-Feb
City
PRECIPITATION (Inches) Period of Record: Mar 22 2015 to Mar 28 2015
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
21-Feb
MEAN TEMPERATURE (°F) Period of Record: Mar 22 2015 to Mar 28 2015
Compared to the Same Week Last Year
Temperature
• Weekend Review: A considerably colder air mass on the back of strong winds invaded the eastern half of the continent, plunging temperatures as far as 25°F below average. Consumers anxious for spring were challenged by the winter-like chill. The West continued to enjoy much warmer temperatures with widespread 60s, 70s, and 80s. Demand for tees, sandals, outdoor furniture, and grills was robust. Rain and snow showers exited New England Saturday; precipitation also fell in interior Canada, Northern Plains, and Midwest. • Last year the U.S. had its coldest 4th week of March since 2006 with the most rainfall in 5 years. Snowfall was well above normal due to a mid-week storm in the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions. • Another Warm Week to Last Year Driven by the West. Last week was the warmest 4th week of March since 2012, with all regions trending warmer than last year. Overall it was warmest in the West. For the second consecutive week, the Pacific region was warmest in over 55 years. San Diego, San Francisco, and Seattle each had their warmest 4th week of March in over 55 years. Portland, OR was warmest since 1978, Sacramento since 1986, and LA since 1988. Demand for spring businesses including apparel, consumables, auto appearance, and lawn care categories remained very strong. • Chilly in the Northeast and Midwest. Although mostly warmer than LY, the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Great Lakes were colder than normal. Boston had its coldest 4th week of March since 1974. Chicago, Buffalo, and Cleveland each had their coldest 4th week of March since 1983, limiting demand for spring products. • Severe Weather Season Kicked In. While severe weather this March has been off to its slowest start since 1970, things ramped up last week with over 350 reported incidents. This included ten tornadoes and nearly 270 reports of hail. Severe weather was focused in eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas on March 25th. • Cashing in my Rain Check. Overall it was the driest 4th week of March since 2013 with rainfall 47% below last year and well below normal. Conversely, Chicago has its wettest 4th week of March since 1997. • Spring Snow! Chicago had 6.4 inches of snow, the most for week 4 of March since 1983, and Minneapolis had 4.9 inches snow, the most since 1996. While snow was quick to melt, it limited demand for spring products.
Precipitation
U.S. Summary and Callouts
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product/category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather.
FANS North America +32% Denver +122% San Francisco +102% St. Louis +85% Baltimore -90%
GRASS SEED North America +11% Kansas City +34% Seattle +20% Dallas +15% Chicago -17%
FLEA & TICK CONTROL North America +10% Los Angeles +33% Orlando +17% Atlanta +9% Boston -2%
SHORT SLEEVE SHIRTS North America +5% Sacramento +28% Calgary +26% Oklahoma City +11% New York City +9%
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
THIS WEEK: March 29, 2015 – April 4, 2015 (Retail Week 9 / March Week 5)
Retail March to End on a Positive Note Given Stronger Warmth Interior, West. East Coast Demand Remains Challenging with Cooler Surges. Holiday Weekend Warm in the West, Cooler East.
Temperature
• Last year the U.S. had its warmest end to March since 2012 with the most rainfall since 2011. Snowfall exceeded normal levels due to a mid-week storm in the upper Midwest, Rockies, and interior Northeast regions. Canada had its coldest 5th week of March since 2007 with the most rainfall since 2009. Snowfall was well above normal and the most since 2007. The Easter holiday weekend last year (4/18 – 4/20) was mostly warm and dry, but began with record cold in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic for Good Friday. • Easter Run-Up Week Begins with a Cooler Push in the East; Wetness South. The run-up week to Easter is expected to begin with unsettled weather for much of the Southeast, adding pressure to already high rivers and streams. A reinforcing shot of cooler air will work into the Northeast and eastern Canada with some snow showers possible. • Clipper Systems to Bring Snow to Canada, Northern U.S. Quick-moving storms will bring snow to Canada from the Prairies to the Maritimes, although the heaviest amounts should remain north of the major St. Lawrence cities. A disturbance mid-week is expected to bring light snow from the upper Midwest into parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England. • Warmth, Storms Moving Into Interior. The above normal temperatures pervasive across the western states will spread further east into the Plains, Midwest, and Canadian Prairies. With highs in the 50s, 60s, and 70s, consumers will ramp up their spring purchasing. Rain and severe weather is possible. • Late Week Cool Down for the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada. While the Pacific Northwest and western Canada will trend mostly warmer than LY, a cooling trend will take hold by the end of the week. This will curtail spring selling momentum. Showers are possible on most days, particularly for western Canada. • Continued Warmth in the Southwest. Most of California and the Desert Southwest will continue to have temperatures warmer than last year and normal, driving demand for spring apparel, consumables, and lawn care businesses. • Holiday Weekend Outlook. As one system impacts the East late week with periods of showers and thunderstorms, another system will organize in the Central Plains bringing more wetness for the Midwest, East Coast, and eastern Canada. While most precipitation should be rain, snow is possible from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Conditions should start to dry out beginning on Saturday. Most of the West should be similar to warmer than normal.
Precipitation
This Week Outlook & Callouts
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
(Maps compare to the same week last year)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Sandals: +6%
Lawn Mowers: +4%
Sunglasses: +3%
Capris (Canada): +23%
More Favorable Similar Less Favorable
NEXT WEEK: April 5, 2015 – April 11, 2015 (Retail Week 10 / April Week 1)
April to Begin on a Much Cooler Note to LY Across North America, Limiting Spring Purchases. Opportunities Focused in the Southeast. Storms, Flooding, and Severe Weather Threats Increase.
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
Precipitation
• Next week last year, the U.S. had the warmest first week of retail April since 2002, driven by record heat in the West. Rainfall was near normal while snowfall was well below normal. Canada was warmer than normal with above normal rainfall but below normal snowfall. Easter Sunday last year (4/20/14) was the warmest since 2011 in both the U.S. and Canada, with below normal rainfall. • Drying Out for Easter Sunday, but Cool for Many. For those attending services or traveling for holiday dinner, anticipate a drier day as precipitation pushes off the East Coast. Cooler temperatures along with gusty winds are expected. Warmer temperatures will be confined to California and the Southwest. • Cooler Temperatures to Suppress Need for Spring Categories. Against strong warmth the same week last year, anticipate a much cooler trend for most markets. Year-over-year demand for warm weather apparel, cold drinks, lawn care, and auto appearance will decline. • A Warm Southeast to Carry the Week. While a challenging week for most, businesses in this region will benefit from a warmer trend, aiding seasonal sales. • Active Storm Pattern to Bring a Mixed Bag of Weather. Anticipate a stormy week including heavy rain in areas from Texas to the Ohio Valley. The threat of severe weather, including large hail and tornadoes, will ramp up in these areas. Rainfall and cooler temperatures will return to California and the Pacific Northwest. • Canada Cool and Wet. The presence of colder temperatures will keep the threat of wintry precipitation in the forecast across Canada. Spring demand will be limited.
Temperature
Next Week Outlook & Callouts
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
(Maps compare to the same week last year)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Lawn Fertilizers: -10%
Shorts (Canada): -10%
More Favorable Similar Less Favorable
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
