Planalytics Flashweather 05112015
LAST WEEK: May 3, 2015 – May 9, 2015 (Retail Week 14 / May Week 1) Warmest Start to May Since 2007 Driven by the Eastern Half of North America Lifted Spring Demand. Extreme Weather Included Tornadoes, Flooding, Snow, and the First Tropical Storm of the Season.
U.S. Summary and Callouts
+3.0% +2.7%
55.9
11.5
54.6
Oklahoma City, OK
9.94
1.25
8.69
1.01
Amarillo, TX
2.86
0.00
2.86
0.30
+2.0%
Syracuse, NY
66.7
55.8
11.0
55.4
Omaha, NE
2.94
0.18
2.76
1.31
Sault Ste Marie, MI
56.4
45.5
10.9
49.8
Fort Smith, AR
4.43
1.84
2.59
1.26
+0.0%
Buffalo, NY
66.2
Oklahoma City, OK
68.8
55.8
10.4
55.6
Wichita, KS
2.88
0.32
2.56
1.10
-1.0%
74.9
-6.1
67.0
Dallas, TX
1.11
2.68
-1.57
1.19
Wichita, KS
-2.0%
69.7
76.1
-6.3
64.7
Bellingham, WA
0.26
1.98
-1.72
0.42
Columbia, SC
69.9
77.1
-7.2
70.3
Jackson, MS
0.00
2.00
-2.00
0.88
-3.0%
Amarillo, TX
64.6
72.2
-7.6
62.7
Shreveport, LA
0.10
2.32
-2.22
1.41
Charleston, SC
70.0
78.4
-8.4
71.9
New Orleans, LA
0.02
3.91
-3.89
0.86
Canada Summary and Callouts
• Last year was the coolest start to May since 2004 with near normal rainfall. Mother's Day was near normal. • Mother’s Day Warmer Than Normal and LY. Montreal had its warmest Mother’s Day since 1961, Toronto since 1991. • Coast to Coast Warmth. All major markets trended warmer than LY to start May. Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa each had their warmest first week of May since 1999. Warmth lifted demand for seasonal categories. • Driest Start to May Since 2007. Nationally, rainfall was 24% below LY, and less than normal. Montreal, Ottawa, and Quebec City each had their driest start to May since 2007. MEAN TEMPERATURE (°C) Period of Record: May 3 2015 to May 9 2015 City
PRECIPITATION (mm) Period of Record: May 3 2015 to May 9 2015
2015
2014 Change Normal
Ottawa
18.3
11.0
7.3
11.9
Toronto
City
11
2
10
13
Montreal
18.5
11.7
6.8
12.4
Edmonton
15
6
9
11
Calgary
8.3
3.1
5.2
7.8
Winnipeg
21
17
4
14
Toronto
16.5
11.5
4.9
12.4
Calgary
6
12
-6
13
Quebec City
13.5
9.8
3.7
10.5
Quebec City
4
20
-16
20
Edmonton
5.7
2.0
3.6
7.6
Montreal
11
31
-19
15
Winnipeg
9.3
8.1
1.3
8.8
Vancouver
3
44
-41
12
Vancouver
12.1
11.8
0.2
11.4
Ottawa
2
53
-51
16
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
2015
2014 Change Normal
+0.7%
+1.0%
+0.1%
-2.1%
-2.3%
23-May
11.9
53.9
+2.9% +2.9%
16-May
56.6
65.4
Temperature
2014 Change Normal
9-May
68.5
Burlington, VT
+3.4%
2015
2-May
Albany, NY
City
+4.0%
25-Apr
2014 Change Normal
Retail Foot Traffic WDD (Actuals for last 6 weeks. Outlook for next 2 weeks.)
18-Apr
2015
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
4-Apr
City
PRECIPITATION (Inches) Period of Record: May 3 2015 to May 9 2015
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
11-Apr
MEAN TEMPERATURE (°F) Period of Record: May 3 2015 to May 9 2015
Compared to the Same Week Last Year
Precipitation
• Weekend Review: It was a weekend of extreme weather. Most of the East Coast experienced above normal warmth and generally dry conditions that supported outdoor activities. Tropical Storm Ana made landfall near Myrtle Beach, SC on Sunday morning producing moderate rainfall and strong wind gusts. Ana was downgraded to a tropical depression with strongest impacts along the Carolina coastline. Severe weather, including tornadoes, hail, and flooding was focused in Central regions. Freezing temperatures and snowfall impacted the Rockies and Northern Plains. The Northwest was warm and dry, while the Southwest was cool and wet. • Last year, the U.S. had its warmest start to May since 2009, with cool conditions focused in the West. Overall it was the driest start to May since 2007. Mother's Day was warmest since 2007. • Warmest Mother’s Day Since 2004. Boston, Nashville, and Richmond were all warmest in over 55 years. • Warmth in the East. The East North Central region had its warmest start to May since 1964, the Mid-Atlantic region since 1979. Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and St. Louis all had their warmest start to May in over 55 years. Warm conditions aided seasonal demand for A/Cs, pool chemicals, cold drinks, and seasonal apparel. • Heavy Rain in Interior Regions. The Mountain region had its most rainfall to start May in over 55 years. The West South Central region was wettest since 2000, and West North Central region since 2003. Oklahoma City had its wettest start to May in over 55 years with almost 10 inches of rain. • An Active Week of Severe Weather. There were over 550 confirmed severe weather reports, including 120 tornadoes. Most events were in the Southern and Central Plains driving purchasing of cleanup items. • Dry in the East. The New England region had its driest start to May in over 55 years. The Mid-Atlantic and South Atlantic regions were driest since 2006. Boston and NYC had their driest start to May since 2001; Philadelphia and Baltimore since 2006. Dry conditions supported retail foot traffic and outdoor activities. • Cool in the Southwest. Los Angeles and Las Vegas had their coolest start to May since 2003. Riverside and San Diego were coolest since 2008. Denver was coolest since 2011. • Snow Kidding! Late season snow brought moderate snowfall to Denver and throughout the Rockies. • It’s Not Even Hurricane Season Yet! Although the official start to the Atlantic Hurricane season is not for 3 weeks, Tropical Storm Ana formed as the first storm of the season, and the first May storm since 2012. Ana had sustained winds of 50 mph, but quickly lost strength as it moved ashore. Damage is expected to be minimal.
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product/category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather.
AIR CONDITIONERS North America +32% Detroit +101% New York City +91% Charlotte +26% Los Angeles -49%
HOSES & SPRINKLERS North America +10% Baltimore +46% Cleveland +22% Nashville +17% Phoenix -25%
SUNCARE North America +12% Seattle +59% Minneapolis +35% Boston +26% Denver -22%
SHORT SLEEVE SHIRTS North America +8% Toronto +22% Chicago +15% Atlanta +8% Oklahoma City -9%
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
THIS WEEK: May 10, 2015 – May 16, 2015 (Retail Week 15 / May Week 2)
Warmth in the East Continues to Drive Demand for Seasonal Items. Extreme Weather to Impact Interior Regions. Much Needed Rain Falls in the West. Canada Cool on the Coasts, Warm Interior.
• Warmth Continues in the East. Early in the week, warmth will dominate the eastern U.S. Temperatures will approach 90°F in major markets of the MidAtlantic, and the 70s and 80s as far as interior southern New England. Cooler temperatures will move in by mid-week for the central and eastern U.S., but warmer temperatures will return in time for the weekend. Overall, conditions for the eastern half of the U.S. will be warmer than LY, helping seasonal demand.
Temperature
• Last year, the U.S. saw record heat in the West; the Pacific region had its warmest 2nd week of May since 1997. The U.S. interior, however, was cool overall with May 16th bringing the latest snowfall on record for the Chicago area. Rain in the East made it the wettest 2nd week of May since 1980. Canada was slightly warmer than last year and normal. Rainfall was the most for the 2nd week of May since 2007.
Precipitation
This Week Outlook & Callouts
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
(Maps compare to the same week last year)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category
• Cool in the West. Cooler air in the West will drop temperatures below normal and last year. Coastal markets will largely be in the 60s, with warmer temperatures in the interior and desert areas. Cooler temperatures will limit spring categories.
Lawn Mowers: +7%
Wiper Blades: +5%
Shorts: -1%
Sandals (Canada): +3%
• Tornadoes, Hail, and Snow! A large storm system will bring heavy rain and severe thunderstorms across the central U.S. much of this week. This will include the potential for hail, high winds, tornadoes, and flash flooding. If that isn’t enough, snow will fall across parts of North Dakota, Wyoming, and Nebraska. • A Wet Week in the West. Out West, light showers will fall in the Pacific Northwest to start the week, then shift to southern and central California late in the week. • Ana Makes an Exit. Early week, remnants of Tropical Depression Ana will slowly trek up the East Coast bringing showers and gusty winds from North Carolina to Massachusetts. The storm will be out to sea by mid-week. • Cool Coasts, Warm Interior in Canada. The coasts of Canada are expected to trend cooler than last year, while the interior regions will be warmer. Rain showers are expected early week in the East, and in the interior by mid-week.
More Favorable Similar Less Favorable
NEXT WEEK: May 17, 2015 – May 23, 2015 (Retail Week 16 / May Week 3)
Get Ready for Summer! The Run-Up to Memorial Day Weekend Brings Strong Opportunities for Seasonal Categories in the Eastern Half of North America.
• The Continental Divide. The run-up to Memorial Day Weekend will bring opportunities for seasonal businesses in eastern regions of North America. Temperatures will remain much warmer than last year and normal, supporting demand for outdoor activities leading up to the unofficial start of summer. Western states will continue to trend cooler than normal and last year, limiting seasonal demand. • Stormy Early Week, Then a Bit More Settled. A frontal boundary will extend from the Northeast to the Southwest early to mid-week. Showers and thunderstorms will form along the length of the front. The best chance for heavy rain and severe weather will be across the Central Plains. Storms will slip into the Southeast to end the week while the next system pushes into the Northwest. • Canada Warmer Than Normal and Last Year. Much of the country will trend warmer than normal and last year. The week will begin with wet conditions in the West but will dry out as we approach the weekend aiding demand for seasonal items.
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
Precipitation
• Last year, the U.S. trended warmer than normal. It was the driest 3rd week of May since 2002. Rain across the Southern Plains helped drought stricken areas in Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma. Severe weather continued with over 650 confirmed reports. In Canada, temperatures trended slightly warmer than normal with the least rainfall for the 3rd week of May since 2010.
Temperature
Next Week Outlook & Callouts
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
(Maps compare to the same week last year)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Air Conditioners: +47%
Shorts (Canada): +23%
More Favorable Similar Less Favorable
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
U.S. Summary and Callouts
+3.0% +2.7%
55.9
11.5
54.6
Oklahoma City, OK
9.94
1.25
8.69
1.01
Amarillo, TX
2.86
0.00
2.86
0.30
+2.0%
Syracuse, NY
66.7
55.8
11.0
55.4
Omaha, NE
2.94
0.18
2.76
1.31
Sault Ste Marie, MI
56.4
45.5
10.9
49.8
Fort Smith, AR
4.43
1.84
2.59
1.26
+0.0%
Buffalo, NY
66.2
Oklahoma City, OK
68.8
55.8
10.4
55.6
Wichita, KS
2.88
0.32
2.56
1.10
-1.0%
74.9
-6.1
67.0
Dallas, TX
1.11
2.68
-1.57
1.19
Wichita, KS
-2.0%
69.7
76.1
-6.3
64.7
Bellingham, WA
0.26
1.98
-1.72
0.42
Columbia, SC
69.9
77.1
-7.2
70.3
Jackson, MS
0.00
2.00
-2.00
0.88
-3.0%
Amarillo, TX
64.6
72.2
-7.6
62.7
Shreveport, LA
0.10
2.32
-2.22
1.41
Charleston, SC
70.0
78.4
-8.4
71.9
New Orleans, LA
0.02
3.91
-3.89
0.86
Canada Summary and Callouts
• Last year was the coolest start to May since 2004 with near normal rainfall. Mother's Day was near normal. • Mother’s Day Warmer Than Normal and LY. Montreal had its warmest Mother’s Day since 1961, Toronto since 1991. • Coast to Coast Warmth. All major markets trended warmer than LY to start May. Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa each had their warmest first week of May since 1999. Warmth lifted demand for seasonal categories. • Driest Start to May Since 2007. Nationally, rainfall was 24% below LY, and less than normal. Montreal, Ottawa, and Quebec City each had their driest start to May since 2007. MEAN TEMPERATURE (°C) Period of Record: May 3 2015 to May 9 2015 City
PRECIPITATION (mm) Period of Record: May 3 2015 to May 9 2015
2015
2014 Change Normal
Ottawa
18.3
11.0
7.3
11.9
Toronto
City
11
2
10
13
Montreal
18.5
11.7
6.8
12.4
Edmonton
15
6
9
11
Calgary
8.3
3.1
5.2
7.8
Winnipeg
21
17
4
14
Toronto
16.5
11.5
4.9
12.4
Calgary
6
12
-6
13
Quebec City
13.5
9.8
3.7
10.5
Quebec City
4
20
-16
20
Edmonton
5.7
2.0
3.6
7.6
Montreal
11
31
-19
15
Winnipeg
9.3
8.1
1.3
8.8
Vancouver
3
44
-41
12
Vancouver
12.1
11.8
0.2
11.4
Ottawa
2
53
-51
16
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
2015
2014 Change Normal
+0.7%
+1.0%
+0.1%
-2.1%
-2.3%
23-May
11.9
53.9
+2.9% +2.9%
16-May
56.6
65.4
Temperature
2014 Change Normal
9-May
68.5
Burlington, VT
+3.4%
2015
2-May
Albany, NY
City
+4.0%
25-Apr
2014 Change Normal
Retail Foot Traffic WDD (Actuals for last 6 weeks. Outlook for next 2 weeks.)
18-Apr
2015
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
4-Apr
City
PRECIPITATION (Inches) Period of Record: May 3 2015 to May 9 2015
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
11-Apr
MEAN TEMPERATURE (°F) Period of Record: May 3 2015 to May 9 2015
Compared to the Same Week Last Year
Precipitation
• Weekend Review: It was a weekend of extreme weather. Most of the East Coast experienced above normal warmth and generally dry conditions that supported outdoor activities. Tropical Storm Ana made landfall near Myrtle Beach, SC on Sunday morning producing moderate rainfall and strong wind gusts. Ana was downgraded to a tropical depression with strongest impacts along the Carolina coastline. Severe weather, including tornadoes, hail, and flooding was focused in Central regions. Freezing temperatures and snowfall impacted the Rockies and Northern Plains. The Northwest was warm and dry, while the Southwest was cool and wet. • Last year, the U.S. had its warmest start to May since 2009, with cool conditions focused in the West. Overall it was the driest start to May since 2007. Mother's Day was warmest since 2007. • Warmest Mother’s Day Since 2004. Boston, Nashville, and Richmond were all warmest in over 55 years. • Warmth in the East. The East North Central region had its warmest start to May since 1964, the Mid-Atlantic region since 1979. Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and St. Louis all had their warmest start to May in over 55 years. Warm conditions aided seasonal demand for A/Cs, pool chemicals, cold drinks, and seasonal apparel. • Heavy Rain in Interior Regions. The Mountain region had its most rainfall to start May in over 55 years. The West South Central region was wettest since 2000, and West North Central region since 2003. Oklahoma City had its wettest start to May in over 55 years with almost 10 inches of rain. • An Active Week of Severe Weather. There were over 550 confirmed severe weather reports, including 120 tornadoes. Most events were in the Southern and Central Plains driving purchasing of cleanup items. • Dry in the East. The New England region had its driest start to May in over 55 years. The Mid-Atlantic and South Atlantic regions were driest since 2006. Boston and NYC had their driest start to May since 2001; Philadelphia and Baltimore since 2006. Dry conditions supported retail foot traffic and outdoor activities. • Cool in the Southwest. Los Angeles and Las Vegas had their coolest start to May since 2003. Riverside and San Diego were coolest since 2008. Denver was coolest since 2011. • Snow Kidding! Late season snow brought moderate snowfall to Denver and throughout the Rockies. • It’s Not Even Hurricane Season Yet! Although the official start to the Atlantic Hurricane season is not for 3 weeks, Tropical Storm Ana formed as the first storm of the season, and the first May storm since 2012. Ana had sustained winds of 50 mph, but quickly lost strength as it moved ashore. Damage is expected to be minimal.
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product/category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather.
AIR CONDITIONERS North America +32% Detroit +101% New York City +91% Charlotte +26% Los Angeles -49%
HOSES & SPRINKLERS North America +10% Baltimore +46% Cleveland +22% Nashville +17% Phoenix -25%
SUNCARE North America +12% Seattle +59% Minneapolis +35% Boston +26% Denver -22%
SHORT SLEEVE SHIRTS North America +8% Toronto +22% Chicago +15% Atlanta +8% Oklahoma City -9%
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
THIS WEEK: May 10, 2015 – May 16, 2015 (Retail Week 15 / May Week 2)
Warmth in the East Continues to Drive Demand for Seasonal Items. Extreme Weather to Impact Interior Regions. Much Needed Rain Falls in the West. Canada Cool on the Coasts, Warm Interior.
• Warmth Continues in the East. Early in the week, warmth will dominate the eastern U.S. Temperatures will approach 90°F in major markets of the MidAtlantic, and the 70s and 80s as far as interior southern New England. Cooler temperatures will move in by mid-week for the central and eastern U.S., but warmer temperatures will return in time for the weekend. Overall, conditions for the eastern half of the U.S. will be warmer than LY, helping seasonal demand.
Temperature
• Last year, the U.S. saw record heat in the West; the Pacific region had its warmest 2nd week of May since 1997. The U.S. interior, however, was cool overall with May 16th bringing the latest snowfall on record for the Chicago area. Rain in the East made it the wettest 2nd week of May since 1980. Canada was slightly warmer than last year and normal. Rainfall was the most for the 2nd week of May since 2007.
Precipitation
This Week Outlook & Callouts
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
(Maps compare to the same week last year)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category
• Cool in the West. Cooler air in the West will drop temperatures below normal and last year. Coastal markets will largely be in the 60s, with warmer temperatures in the interior and desert areas. Cooler temperatures will limit spring categories.
Lawn Mowers: +7%
Wiper Blades: +5%
Shorts: -1%
Sandals (Canada): +3%
• Tornadoes, Hail, and Snow! A large storm system will bring heavy rain and severe thunderstorms across the central U.S. much of this week. This will include the potential for hail, high winds, tornadoes, and flash flooding. If that isn’t enough, snow will fall across parts of North Dakota, Wyoming, and Nebraska. • A Wet Week in the West. Out West, light showers will fall in the Pacific Northwest to start the week, then shift to southern and central California late in the week. • Ana Makes an Exit. Early week, remnants of Tropical Depression Ana will slowly trek up the East Coast bringing showers and gusty winds from North Carolina to Massachusetts. The storm will be out to sea by mid-week. • Cool Coasts, Warm Interior in Canada. The coasts of Canada are expected to trend cooler than last year, while the interior regions will be warmer. Rain showers are expected early week in the East, and in the interior by mid-week.
More Favorable Similar Less Favorable
NEXT WEEK: May 17, 2015 – May 23, 2015 (Retail Week 16 / May Week 3)
Get Ready for Summer! The Run-Up to Memorial Day Weekend Brings Strong Opportunities for Seasonal Categories in the Eastern Half of North America.
• The Continental Divide. The run-up to Memorial Day Weekend will bring opportunities for seasonal businesses in eastern regions of North America. Temperatures will remain much warmer than last year and normal, supporting demand for outdoor activities leading up to the unofficial start of summer. Western states will continue to trend cooler than normal and last year, limiting seasonal demand. • Stormy Early Week, Then a Bit More Settled. A frontal boundary will extend from the Northeast to the Southwest early to mid-week. Showers and thunderstorms will form along the length of the front. The best chance for heavy rain and severe weather will be across the Central Plains. Storms will slip into the Southeast to end the week while the next system pushes into the Northwest. • Canada Warmer Than Normal and Last Year. Much of the country will trend warmer than normal and last year. The week will begin with wet conditions in the West but will dry out as we approach the weekend aiding demand for seasonal items.
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
Precipitation
• Last year, the U.S. trended warmer than normal. It was the driest 3rd week of May since 2002. Rain across the Southern Plains helped drought stricken areas in Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma. Severe weather continued with over 650 confirmed reports. In Canada, temperatures trended slightly warmer than normal with the least rainfall for the 3rd week of May since 2010.
Temperature
Next Week Outlook & Callouts
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
(Maps compare to the same week last year)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Air Conditioners: +47%
Shorts (Canada): +23%
More Favorable Similar Less Favorable
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
