Planalytics WeatherCall April2015
April 2015 Issued: May 4, 2015
Spring Sprung! Warmest April Since 2006 in the U.S., Warmth vs. LY in Canada Lifted Seasonal Demand. A Drier Month to LY Aided Store Traffic for Most Despite Wet Conditions in the South Central Region. Severe Weather Kicked In.
• Roller Coaster Temperatures Throughout April, With Even Weeks Warm, Odd Weeks Cold. o Week 2 was the warmest since 2012 in both the U.S. and Canada, and much warmer than normal. o Week 4 trended warmer than LY and normal in both the U.S. and Canada. o Week 1 was colder than LY in the U.S., but warmer than normal, while Canada was cooler than both LY and normal. o Week 3 was cooler than LY and normal in the U.S., and the coldest since 2011 in Canada. • Florida Hot Springs. o Miami and Tampa had their warmest April on record, driving demand for spring categories. o Orlando had its warmest week 1 and week 2 of April in over 55 years; week 3 was the warmest since 1972. • New England, Same Old Story. o Three out of four weeks trended cooler than last year in New England, which had its coolest April since 2003. o Boston did not reach 70°F during the month. The city has failed to top this mark in 6 months. • Overall Dry Conditions Enabled Store Traffic Throughout North America. o Week 2 in Canada was the driest in over 55 years. o Week 4 in the U.S. was the driest since 1992. • Severe Weather Woke Up, But Took a Late Month Breather. o While the severe weather season is off to its slowest start in over 40 years, there were over 1,400 confirmed reports in April, the most so far this year. o The core of the activity was in weeks 2 and 3, while week 4 saw the number of reports taper off. • Frosty is in the Rearview. o While it is not uncommon for many markets in the Northern Tier to receive snowfall in April, both the U.S. and Canada had their lowest snow totals for the month since 2006.
Weather’s Impact “Spring businesses continued to benefit from favorable weather across North America. Less rainfall and fewer severe weather events compared to last year enabled consumers to make several visits to their favorite retail and restaurant chains,” said Scott Bernhardt, President of Planalytics.
Temperature Callouts • The East South Central region had its warmest April in 4 years with the South Atlantic region trending much above normal. The West North Central region was warmest in 3 years. o Miami and Orlando had their warmest April in over 55 years; Tampa was warmest since 1991. o Atlanta, Nashville, and New Orleans were warmest since 2011. o Minneapolis was warmest since 2010. • Boston and the entire New England region remained below normal with the coolest April since 2003. • Out West, the Mountain and Pacific regions trended cooler than LY, but much warmer than normal. • In Canada, Calgary had its warmest April since 2006, while Edmonton was warmest since 2010.
Precipitation Callouts • Rainfall in the U.S. was 11% less than LY, but still wetter than normal. The West North Central region had its driest April since 2005. o Buffalo and Minneapolis had their least April rainfall since 2009. • Conversely, the West South Central region was wettest since 2004. o San Antonio had its wettest April since 1977, Dallas since 1991, and Tampa since 1997. • Rainfall in Canada was 28% below a record April last year, although above normal. o Edmonton was driest since 2006, Winnipeg since 2008, and Calgary since 2009. o Conversely, Halifax had its wettest April since 2002. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Temperature
Significant Weather Events
April 2015 vs. April 2014
Hotter
Colder
Mean Temperature Trends for April 2015
City Miami Salt Lake City Minneapolis Detroit Calgary Boston
Temp vs LY +2.1F +0.4F +5.8F +1.1F +1.6C -1.9F
Temp vs Normal +3.7F +3.4F +2.0F +0.4F +2.5C -2.6F
Notable Warmest in 55+ years Warmest since 2000 Warmest since 2010 Warmest since 2010 Warmest since 2006 Coolest since 2003
Precipitation
This was the warmest April since 2006 across the U.S. with temperatures trending warmer than normal. Rainfall, while below last year, was still much above normal. Temperatures in Canada were warmer than LY although near normal. Precipitation was below the record levels of last April, although still above normal. The snowfall season ended with a whimper across North America with both the U.S. and Canada much below normal, and having their lowest snowfall totals for April since 2006. The overall warmer and drier conditions were beneficial for demand of seasonal categories as well as foot traffic into many retail and restaurant chains.
Wetter
Drier
Precipitation Trends for April 2015 Total Precipitation City Precipitation vs LY Seattle 1.77 in -3.44 in Buffalo 1.99 in -2.74 in Edmonton 15.2 mm -19.3 mm Raleigh 5.84 in +0.61 in Dallas 5.94 in +4.17 in New Orleans 11.97 in +10.20 in
Notable Driest since 2007 Driest since 2009 Driest since 2006 Wettest since 1997 Wettest since 1991 Wettest since 2004
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product / category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather.
Pest Control Lawn Mowers Short Sleeve Shirts Exterior Paint Bicycles Allergy Relief
+5% +3% +3% +2% +1% +1%
Retail Traffic WDD by Segment
Estimated impact of weather on foot traffic by retail segment.
Home Centers Softlines Restaurants General Merchandise Indoor Entertainment
+0.4% +0.3% +0.1% -0.2% -1.7%
Weather impacted foot traffic at Cabela’s. (+6%), Buffalo Wild Wings (+4%), Ascena Retail Group (+1%), and Dillard’s (-3%). www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
Spring Sprung! Warmest April Since 2006 in the U.S., Warmth vs. LY in Canada Lifted Seasonal Demand. A Drier Month to LY Aided Store Traffic for Most Despite Wet Conditions in the South Central Region. Severe Weather Kicked In.
• Roller Coaster Temperatures Throughout April, With Even Weeks Warm, Odd Weeks Cold. o Week 2 was the warmest since 2012 in both the U.S. and Canada, and much warmer than normal. o Week 4 trended warmer than LY and normal in both the U.S. and Canada. o Week 1 was colder than LY in the U.S., but warmer than normal, while Canada was cooler than both LY and normal. o Week 3 was cooler than LY and normal in the U.S., and the coldest since 2011 in Canada. • Florida Hot Springs. o Miami and Tampa had their warmest April on record, driving demand for spring categories. o Orlando had its warmest week 1 and week 2 of April in over 55 years; week 3 was the warmest since 1972. • New England, Same Old Story. o Three out of four weeks trended cooler than last year in New England, which had its coolest April since 2003. o Boston did not reach 70°F during the month. The city has failed to top this mark in 6 months. • Overall Dry Conditions Enabled Store Traffic Throughout North America. o Week 2 in Canada was the driest in over 55 years. o Week 4 in the U.S. was the driest since 1992. • Severe Weather Woke Up, But Took a Late Month Breather. o While the severe weather season is off to its slowest start in over 40 years, there were over 1,400 confirmed reports in April, the most so far this year. o The core of the activity was in weeks 2 and 3, while week 4 saw the number of reports taper off. • Frosty is in the Rearview. o While it is not uncommon for many markets in the Northern Tier to receive snowfall in April, both the U.S. and Canada had their lowest snow totals for the month since 2006.
Weather’s Impact “Spring businesses continued to benefit from favorable weather across North America. Less rainfall and fewer severe weather events compared to last year enabled consumers to make several visits to their favorite retail and restaurant chains,” said Scott Bernhardt, President of Planalytics.
Temperature Callouts • The East South Central region had its warmest April in 4 years with the South Atlantic region trending much above normal. The West North Central region was warmest in 3 years. o Miami and Orlando had their warmest April in over 55 years; Tampa was warmest since 1991. o Atlanta, Nashville, and New Orleans were warmest since 2011. o Minneapolis was warmest since 2010. • Boston and the entire New England region remained below normal with the coolest April since 2003. • Out West, the Mountain and Pacific regions trended cooler than LY, but much warmer than normal. • In Canada, Calgary had its warmest April since 2006, while Edmonton was warmest since 2010.
Precipitation Callouts • Rainfall in the U.S. was 11% less than LY, but still wetter than normal. The West North Central region had its driest April since 2005. o Buffalo and Minneapolis had their least April rainfall since 2009. • Conversely, the West South Central region was wettest since 2004. o San Antonio had its wettest April since 1977, Dallas since 1991, and Tampa since 1997. • Rainfall in Canada was 28% below a record April last year, although above normal. o Edmonton was driest since 2006, Winnipeg since 2008, and Calgary since 2009. o Conversely, Halifax had its wettest April since 2002. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Temperature
Significant Weather Events
April 2015 vs. April 2014
Hotter
Colder
Mean Temperature Trends for April 2015
City Miami Salt Lake City Minneapolis Detroit Calgary Boston
Temp vs LY +2.1F +0.4F +5.8F +1.1F +1.6C -1.9F
Temp vs Normal +3.7F +3.4F +2.0F +0.4F +2.5C -2.6F
Notable Warmest in 55+ years Warmest since 2000 Warmest since 2010 Warmest since 2010 Warmest since 2006 Coolest since 2003
Precipitation
This was the warmest April since 2006 across the U.S. with temperatures trending warmer than normal. Rainfall, while below last year, was still much above normal. Temperatures in Canada were warmer than LY although near normal. Precipitation was below the record levels of last April, although still above normal. The snowfall season ended with a whimper across North America with both the U.S. and Canada much below normal, and having their lowest snowfall totals for April since 2006. The overall warmer and drier conditions were beneficial for demand of seasonal categories as well as foot traffic into many retail and restaurant chains.
Wetter
Drier
Precipitation Trends for April 2015 Total Precipitation City Precipitation vs LY Seattle 1.77 in -3.44 in Buffalo 1.99 in -2.74 in Edmonton 15.2 mm -19.3 mm Raleigh 5.84 in +0.61 in Dallas 5.94 in +4.17 in New Orleans 11.97 in +10.20 in
Notable Driest since 2007 Driest since 2009 Driest since 2006 Wettest since 1997 Wettest since 1991 Wettest since 2004
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product / category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather.
Pest Control Lawn Mowers Short Sleeve Shirts Exterior Paint Bicycles Allergy Relief
+5% +3% +3% +2% +1% +1%
Retail Traffic WDD by Segment
Estimated impact of weather on foot traffic by retail segment.
Home Centers Softlines Restaurants General Merchandise Indoor Entertainment
+0.4% +0.3% +0.1% -0.2% -1.7%
Weather impacted foot traffic at Cabela’s. (+6%), Buffalo Wild Wings (+4%), Ascena Retail Group (+1%), and Dillard’s (-3%). www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
