Planalytics WeatherCall December2015
December 2015
Issued: January 4, 2016
The Warmest December in 55+ Years in North America was Driven by Record Warmth in the East. Cold in the West Supported Seasonal Purchasing. Record Rainfall to End the Month for the U.S., Limited Snow. The warmest December in over 55 years in both the U.S. and Canada supported retail and restaurant traffic during the holiday season, while keeping seasonal demand soft. The U.S. was wettest since 1983, although had its least snowfall since 2011. Canada had its most rain and snow since 2013.
December 2015 vs. December 2014 Temperature
• So This is Winter?
o Unseasonable warmth dominated the headlines during December. Nationally, both the 2 nd and 4th weeks of the month trended warmest in 55+ years. Weeks 2, 3, & 4 trended warmest in over 55 years for the New England region, while the Mid-Atlantic, East North Central, and West South Central regions all had 2 out of the 5 weeks trend warmest in 55+ years. Many major markets experienced record warmth throughout the month. Most notable includes Philadelphia, which trended warmest in 55+ years for 4 out of 5 weeks. NYC, Boston, Houston, and Miami all had 3 of the 5 weeks trend warmest in over 55 years. Chicago, Baltimore, St. Louis, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Little Rock, Memphis, Orlando, Raleigh, and Tampa all had 2 of the 5 weeks trend warmest in 55+ years. o Canada got in on the action as well, trending warmest in 55+ years during the 2 nd week of the month. Toronto, Montreal, Quebec City, Ottawa, and Halifax all experienced record warmth during the month.
• Winter Arrived on Cue in the West.
o Despite the headlines of overwhelming warmth, many western locations welcomed colder temperatures, driving seasonal demand. Phoenix had its coldest 3rd week of December since 1992 and Denver since 2008. Seattle was coldest since 2008 during week 4 and San Francisco since 2011. Sacramento, San Francisco, and Salt Lake City all ended the month coldest since 1990. In Canada, Vancouver had its coldest week 4 since 2009 and coldest week 5 since 2003.
Hotter
Colder
Mean Temperature Trends for December 2015 City
Temp v s LY
Temp v s N ormal
N otable
Raleigh
+10.6F
+10.8F
W armest in 55+ Years
New York City
+9.2F
+10.4F
W armest in 55+ Years
Chicago
+6.4F
+10.2F
W armest in 55+ Years
Toronto
+3.6C
+5.5C
W armest in 55+ Years
Phoenix
-2.6F
-1.6F
Coldest since 2007
San Francisco
-6.1F
-0.8F
Coldest since 2011
Precipitation
• More Wet Than White.
o The month began wettest in 55+ years in Miami. Week 2 was wettest in both Seattle and Portland, OR in 55+ years. The wet conditions spread as all U.S. regions trended wetter than the prior year during week 3. The month closed with weeks 4 & 5 trending wettest in 55+ years. Storms during week 4 spawned tornadoes and caused major flooding in the South Central. o Nationally, snowfall was below both last year and normal; however, Denver received snowfall during 4 of the 5 weeks. Week 3 was also notable with Salt Lake City recording its most snowfall since 1970 and Denver since 1989. Winnipeg had its most December week 3 snow since 1992.
• Christmas was Ho, Ho, Hot! o Nationally, Christmas Eve and Christmas Day trended warmest in 55+ years. Carolers sang in shorts in NYC, Boston, Philadelphia, and Tampa which all had their warmest Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in 55+ years. Denver and Salt Lake City were the only major markets to have a white Christmas, while Nashville and Memphis had their most Christmas Day rain since 1987. In Canada, Toronto, Montreal, and Quebec City were each warmest in over 55 years on Christmas Eve. Canada had its driest Christmas Day in 55+ years with no major market snowfall. o New Year’s Eve was warmest since 2011 in the U.S. & Canada and wetter than LY. New Year’s Day was warmest since 2011, but drier than LY, supporting outdoor festivities to ring in 2016.
Weather’s Impact
“Success in December depended on where you were and what you were selling. Seasonal demand surged in the West with the colder conditions, while home centers, restaurants, and overall traffic were the winners in the East,” said Scott Bernhardt, President of Planalytics.
Temperature Callouts
• The New England, Mid-Atlantic, South Atlantic, East and West North Central, and East South Central regions all recorded their warmest December in 55+ years. o NYC, Chicago, Boston, Minneapolis, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Nashville, Baltimore, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Detroit, Indianapolis, Little Rock, Miami, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis are just some of the major cities to experience their warmest December in over 55 years. • In the West, Phoenix was coldest since 2007, Las Vegas since 2009, San Fran & LA since 2011. • In Canada, Toronto, Montreal, Quebec City, and Ottawa were all warmest in 55+ years.
Precipitation Callouts
• The West South Central had its wettest December in 55+ years, East South Central since 2008, South Atlantic since 2009, Pacific since 2010, and East North Central since 2011. o Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami, Portland, OR, Raleigh, and St. Louis were all wettest in 55+ years. • Despite snowfall trending below LY and normal, Boston, Chicago, Minneapolis, Salt Lake City, Denver, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Buffalo, and Oklahoma City all received measurable amounts. • In Canada, Quebec City was wettest since 2008, Montreal and Vancouver since 2012. Calgary, Edmonton, and Winnipeg were the only major markets to have more snow than last year. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Wetter
Drier
Precipitation Trends for December 2015 City Portland, OR St. Louis Atlanta Quebec City Boston Tampa
Total P recipitation P recipitation v s LY 15.24 in +9.19 in 11.95 in +8.56 in 11.88 in +5.19 in 132.84 mm +24.89 mm 4.28 in -2.90 in 0.48in -1.09 in
Notable Wettest in 55+ Years Wettest in 55+ Years Wettest in 55+ Years Wettest since 2008 Driest since 2010 Driest since 1990
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product / category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather.
Bicycles +2% Sports Drinks +1% Soup -1% Firewood -3% Hats, Gloves, Scarves -4% Ice Melt -18%
Retail Traffic WDD by Segment Estimated impact of weather on foot traffic by retail segment.
Restaurants Home Centers Mass Merchant Softlines Indoor Entertainment
+1.6% +1.1% +0.5% +0.2% -1.2%
Weather impacted foot traffic at Ruby Tuesday, Inc (+19%), Five Below (+16%), Shoe Carnival, Inc (+8), and Auto Zone (+5%). www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
Issued: January 4, 2016
The Warmest December in 55+ Years in North America was Driven by Record Warmth in the East. Cold in the West Supported Seasonal Purchasing. Record Rainfall to End the Month for the U.S., Limited Snow. The warmest December in over 55 years in both the U.S. and Canada supported retail and restaurant traffic during the holiday season, while keeping seasonal demand soft. The U.S. was wettest since 1983, although had its least snowfall since 2011. Canada had its most rain and snow since 2013.
December 2015 vs. December 2014 Temperature
• So This is Winter?
o Unseasonable warmth dominated the headlines during December. Nationally, both the 2 nd and 4th weeks of the month trended warmest in 55+ years. Weeks 2, 3, & 4 trended warmest in over 55 years for the New England region, while the Mid-Atlantic, East North Central, and West South Central regions all had 2 out of the 5 weeks trend warmest in 55+ years. Many major markets experienced record warmth throughout the month. Most notable includes Philadelphia, which trended warmest in 55+ years for 4 out of 5 weeks. NYC, Boston, Houston, and Miami all had 3 of the 5 weeks trend warmest in over 55 years. Chicago, Baltimore, St. Louis, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Little Rock, Memphis, Orlando, Raleigh, and Tampa all had 2 of the 5 weeks trend warmest in 55+ years. o Canada got in on the action as well, trending warmest in 55+ years during the 2 nd week of the month. Toronto, Montreal, Quebec City, Ottawa, and Halifax all experienced record warmth during the month.
• Winter Arrived on Cue in the West.
o Despite the headlines of overwhelming warmth, many western locations welcomed colder temperatures, driving seasonal demand. Phoenix had its coldest 3rd week of December since 1992 and Denver since 2008. Seattle was coldest since 2008 during week 4 and San Francisco since 2011. Sacramento, San Francisco, and Salt Lake City all ended the month coldest since 1990. In Canada, Vancouver had its coldest week 4 since 2009 and coldest week 5 since 2003.
Hotter
Colder
Mean Temperature Trends for December 2015 City
Temp v s LY
Temp v s N ormal
N otable
Raleigh
+10.6F
+10.8F
W armest in 55+ Years
New York City
+9.2F
+10.4F
W armest in 55+ Years
Chicago
+6.4F
+10.2F
W armest in 55+ Years
Toronto
+3.6C
+5.5C
W armest in 55+ Years
Phoenix
-2.6F
-1.6F
Coldest since 2007
San Francisco
-6.1F
-0.8F
Coldest since 2011
Precipitation
• More Wet Than White.
o The month began wettest in 55+ years in Miami. Week 2 was wettest in both Seattle and Portland, OR in 55+ years. The wet conditions spread as all U.S. regions trended wetter than the prior year during week 3. The month closed with weeks 4 & 5 trending wettest in 55+ years. Storms during week 4 spawned tornadoes and caused major flooding in the South Central. o Nationally, snowfall was below both last year and normal; however, Denver received snowfall during 4 of the 5 weeks. Week 3 was also notable with Salt Lake City recording its most snowfall since 1970 and Denver since 1989. Winnipeg had its most December week 3 snow since 1992.
• Christmas was Ho, Ho, Hot! o Nationally, Christmas Eve and Christmas Day trended warmest in 55+ years. Carolers sang in shorts in NYC, Boston, Philadelphia, and Tampa which all had their warmest Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in 55+ years. Denver and Salt Lake City were the only major markets to have a white Christmas, while Nashville and Memphis had their most Christmas Day rain since 1987. In Canada, Toronto, Montreal, and Quebec City were each warmest in over 55 years on Christmas Eve. Canada had its driest Christmas Day in 55+ years with no major market snowfall. o New Year’s Eve was warmest since 2011 in the U.S. & Canada and wetter than LY. New Year’s Day was warmest since 2011, but drier than LY, supporting outdoor festivities to ring in 2016.
Weather’s Impact
“Success in December depended on where you were and what you were selling. Seasonal demand surged in the West with the colder conditions, while home centers, restaurants, and overall traffic were the winners in the East,” said Scott Bernhardt, President of Planalytics.
Temperature Callouts
• The New England, Mid-Atlantic, South Atlantic, East and West North Central, and East South Central regions all recorded their warmest December in 55+ years. o NYC, Chicago, Boston, Minneapolis, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Nashville, Baltimore, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Detroit, Indianapolis, Little Rock, Miami, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis are just some of the major cities to experience their warmest December in over 55 years. • In the West, Phoenix was coldest since 2007, Las Vegas since 2009, San Fran & LA since 2011. • In Canada, Toronto, Montreal, Quebec City, and Ottawa were all warmest in 55+ years.
Precipitation Callouts
• The West South Central had its wettest December in 55+ years, East South Central since 2008, South Atlantic since 2009, Pacific since 2010, and East North Central since 2011. o Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami, Portland, OR, Raleigh, and St. Louis were all wettest in 55+ years. • Despite snowfall trending below LY and normal, Boston, Chicago, Minneapolis, Salt Lake City, Denver, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Buffalo, and Oklahoma City all received measurable amounts. • In Canada, Quebec City was wettest since 2008, Montreal and Vancouver since 2012. Calgary, Edmonton, and Winnipeg were the only major markets to have more snow than last year. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Wetter
Drier
Precipitation Trends for December 2015 City Portland, OR St. Louis Atlanta Quebec City Boston Tampa
Total P recipitation P recipitation v s LY 15.24 in +9.19 in 11.95 in +8.56 in 11.88 in +5.19 in 132.84 mm +24.89 mm 4.28 in -2.90 in 0.48in -1.09 in
Notable Wettest in 55+ Years Wettest in 55+ Years Wettest in 55+ Years Wettest since 2008 Driest since 2010 Driest since 1990
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product / category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather.
Bicycles +2% Sports Drinks +1% Soup -1% Firewood -3% Hats, Gloves, Scarves -4% Ice Melt -18%
Retail Traffic WDD by Segment Estimated impact of weather on foot traffic by retail segment.
Restaurants Home Centers Mass Merchant Softlines Indoor Entertainment
+1.6% +1.1% +0.5% +0.2% -1.2%
Weather impacted foot traffic at Ruby Tuesday, Inc (+19%), Five Below (+16%), Shoe Carnival, Inc (+8), and Auto Zone (+5%). www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
