Recycling Markets
The Challenge of Recycled Material Global Markets Chaz Miller Ontario Waste Management Association March 7, 2018
WHAT ARE RECYCLABLES? • Raw materials
RECYCLABLES ARE COMMODITIES • Fluctuating values • Inconsistent quality
DEMAND & SUPPLY • Bought, not sold
WE’VE BEEN HERE BEFORE • Five major market drops since 1990
WE’VE BEEN HERE BEFORE • 1990: Flood of new programs • 2008: Worldwide recession & Beijing Olympics • 2017: China
GLOBAL ECONOMY
EXPORTS (PAPER) • 2000: US: 17% Europe 6% • 2016: US: 40% Europe: 15% • China the largest recipient
Data Hannah Zhao, RISI
CHINESE IMPORTS (PAPER) • 2005: 49% • 2016: 36% • 60% old corrugated containers, 20% mixed paper, 20% other grades • U.S., Europe & Japan primary suppliers at roughly equal percentages • Japan cleaner & closer
Data Hannah Zhao RISI
CHINA • Green fence • National Sword • Import ban
IMPORT BAN • Revised permit management system • Reduced solid waste imports • Lowered contamination limits
SPECIFICATIONS • ISRI • Buyers • Country
KEEP CHINA BEAUTIFUL
GOALS • Limit the use of foreign waste • Increase the use of domestic recyclables • Buy virgin pulp • Increase the size of domestic forests
ARE RECYCLABLES GARBAGE? • It all depends
ARE CURBSIDE RECYCLABLES GARBAGE? • It’s all in the nose of the beholder
OBVIOUS QUESTIONS • What will be enforced? • On what grades? • Clarity
DON’T ALWAYS EXPECT RATIONAL ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR
MARKET PREDICTIONS
WHAT CAN WE DO? • Quality • Plan for market swings • Rethink recycling goals?
OPTIONS • Domestic markets • Recycled content requirements?
OPTIONS • Asian markets
CHALLENGING TIMES • Recycling will survive • Did we learn anything?
SOURCES • Paper: Moore & Associates: Bill Moore: http://marecycle.com • Paper: RISI: Hannah Zhao: http://www.risiinfo.com • Plastic: More Recycling: Nina Belluci Butler: http://www.morerecycling.com • Resource Recycling Magazine & weekly Resource Recycling & Plastic Recycling Update e-news: Jerry Powell: https://resourcerecycling.com/recycling/magazine/
WHAT ARE RECYCLABLES? • Raw materials
RECYCLABLES ARE COMMODITIES • Fluctuating values • Inconsistent quality
DEMAND & SUPPLY • Bought, not sold
WE’VE BEEN HERE BEFORE • Five major market drops since 1990
WE’VE BEEN HERE BEFORE • 1990: Flood of new programs • 2008: Worldwide recession & Beijing Olympics • 2017: China
GLOBAL ECONOMY
EXPORTS (PAPER) • 2000: US: 17% Europe 6% • 2016: US: 40% Europe: 15% • China the largest recipient
Data Hannah Zhao, RISI
CHINESE IMPORTS (PAPER) • 2005: 49% • 2016: 36% • 60% old corrugated containers, 20% mixed paper, 20% other grades • U.S., Europe & Japan primary suppliers at roughly equal percentages • Japan cleaner & closer
Data Hannah Zhao RISI
CHINA • Green fence • National Sword • Import ban
IMPORT BAN • Revised permit management system • Reduced solid waste imports • Lowered contamination limits
SPECIFICATIONS • ISRI • Buyers • Country
KEEP CHINA BEAUTIFUL
GOALS • Limit the use of foreign waste • Increase the use of domestic recyclables • Buy virgin pulp • Increase the size of domestic forests
ARE RECYCLABLES GARBAGE? • It all depends
ARE CURBSIDE RECYCLABLES GARBAGE? • It’s all in the nose of the beholder
OBVIOUS QUESTIONS • What will be enforced? • On what grades? • Clarity
DON’T ALWAYS EXPECT RATIONAL ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR
MARKET PREDICTIONS
WHAT CAN WE DO? • Quality • Plan for market swings • Rethink recycling goals?
OPTIONS • Domestic markets • Recycled content requirements?
OPTIONS • Asian markets
CHALLENGING TIMES • Recycling will survive • Did we learn anything?
SOURCES • Paper: Moore & Associates: Bill Moore: http://marecycle.com • Paper: RISI: Hannah Zhao: http://www.risiinfo.com • Plastic: More Recycling: Nina Belluci Butler: http://www.morerecycling.com • Resource Recycling Magazine & weekly Resource Recycling & Plastic Recycling Update e-news: Jerry Powell: https://resourcerecycling.com/recycling/magazine/
