SAMPLE PRESENTATION FOR CSIS
Global Energy 2011: Security Implications of the Changing Energy Landscape Frank Verrastro Senior Vice President and Program Director Global Security Forum June 8, 2011
Key Features of the Changing Energy Landscape
Continued but uneven demand growth – driven by population, GDP growth, and living standards, particularly in emerging economies;
Changing Resource Base – Increased concentration of conventional resources, concerns over reliability of delivery systems and wealth transfers coupled with environmental and economic issues associated with accessing enormous unconventional and technologically challenging resources;
Impact of Price Volatility, Economic and Regulatory Uncertainty;
New Players Emerging with new agendas, business models, leverage and alliances – New Rules/Institutions?
Projected Impacts of Climate Change & Carbon Constraints
www.csis.org | 2
Mtoe
World Primary Energy Demand to 2030 China and India account for over 50% of global growth 12 000
China and India
10 000
Rest of non-OECD OECD
8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 1980
1990
2010
2020
2030 Source: WEO 2009
China’s growth dominates India by about 3 to 1. India’s growthwww.csis.org is faster setting stage for | much larger role later in the century.
Emerging Economies Dominate the Growth in Demand for All Fuels Incremental primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario, 2008‐2035 OECD
Coal
China
Oil
Rest of world
Gas Nuclear Hydro Other renewables - 600 - 300
0
300
600
900 1 200 1 500 Mtoe
Demand for all types of energy increases in non‐OECD countries, www.csis.org | while demand for coal & oil declines in the OECD
Middle East and North Africa (MENA) accounted for more than 1/3 of global production of oil and other liquids
www.csis.org | 5 Slide Courtesy of EIA
Increased demand and natural decline rates will require massive investment to replace and expand supply Global Liquids (Oil and Biofuels) Replacement
Unconventional and biofuels
Conventional non OPEC
Conventional OPEC
www.csis.org | 6
Source: CSIS, EIA
Enormous Resources Exist, But are Unevenly Distributed and Increasingly Impacted by “Above Ground” Risks
ILLUSTRATIVE PROJECTION Source: USGS UNCONVENTIONAL
CONVENTIONAL
www.csis.org | 7
15 of the Top 20 Largest Oil Companies are NOCs; NOCs control 80-90% of conventional oil and gas reserves; Will play an increasing role in managing resources going forward 6%
77 %
6% 11 % Oil Reserves Held by Russ Companies NOC Oil Reserves (Equity Access) NOC Oil Reserves (Limited Equity Access) Full IOC Access
International Oil Companies
www.csis.org | 8
Sources: PFC Energy, HFHS
Climate Change as Threat Multiplier
www.csis.org | 9 9
Water Scarcity
Demography
Crop Decline
Hunger
Coastal Risks
Recent Conflicts
Good News: Opportunity for Improving Efficiency/Energy Intensity
Energy Intensity, 1000 BTU/$ of GDP
80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 73,032
30,000 20,000 28,686
10,000
18,646 10,508
11,367
13,086
North America
Western Europe
Africa
19,825
0 Asia & Central & Oceania South America
Middle Eastern Eastwww.csis.org Europe & | FSU
Renewables - 2008 US Consumption
www.csis.org | 11
Good News: Unconventional Gas Resources
www.csis.org |
Global Gas Resources
5.6
5.8 3.0 0.8 Europe Russia/ Caspian
North America* 1000 TCF
2.6
20
1.3
Unconventional
Middle East
15
1.4
Africa
Asia Pacific
10
5
Conventional
Latin America •World: ~175 years coverage at 2008 Demand
0
World
•Large unconventional gains anticipated
CERA’s estimate for North America resource recently increased to 3000 TCF Sources: EIA, USGS, NPC; Excludes volumes already produced
www.csis.org |
US Unconventional Gas Resources
www.csis.org |
New Economic Order for Global Hydrocarbons? Unconventional gas resources have become cost competitive
$6/mbtu gas
www.csis.org | Source: IEA, USGS, Nomura Equity Research
www.csis.org | 16 Slide Courtesy of Deutsche Bank
Policy Model Economic Objectives Reliable and Secure Affordable/Accessible
Natural Gas
Supports Economic Growth & Employment
Oil
Nuclear
Defensible
Coal Energy Efficiency
Environmentally Benign
Carbon Capture and Storage
Environmental Objectives Low/no emissions
Renewable Energy
Security & Foreign Policy Promotes/Supports www.csis.org Objectives| Sustainable Environment
Key Features of the Changing Energy Landscape
Continued but uneven demand growth – driven by population, GDP growth, and living standards, particularly in emerging economies;
Changing Resource Base – Increased concentration of conventional resources, concerns over reliability of delivery systems and wealth transfers coupled with environmental and economic issues associated with accessing enormous unconventional and technologically challenging resources;
Impact of Price Volatility, Economic and Regulatory Uncertainty;
New Players Emerging with new agendas, business models, leverage and alliances – New Rules/Institutions?
Projected Impacts of Climate Change & Carbon Constraints
www.csis.org | 2
Mtoe
World Primary Energy Demand to 2030 China and India account for over 50% of global growth 12 000
China and India
10 000
Rest of non-OECD OECD
8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 1980
1990
2010
2020
2030 Source: WEO 2009
China’s growth dominates India by about 3 to 1. India’s growthwww.csis.org is faster setting stage for | much larger role later in the century.
Emerging Economies Dominate the Growth in Demand for All Fuels Incremental primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario, 2008‐2035 OECD
Coal
China
Oil
Rest of world
Gas Nuclear Hydro Other renewables - 600 - 300
0
300
600
900 1 200 1 500 Mtoe
Demand for all types of energy increases in non‐OECD countries, www.csis.org | while demand for coal & oil declines in the OECD
Middle East and North Africa (MENA) accounted for more than 1/3 of global production of oil and other liquids
www.csis.org | 5 Slide Courtesy of EIA
Increased demand and natural decline rates will require massive investment to replace and expand supply Global Liquids (Oil and Biofuels) Replacement
Unconventional and biofuels
Conventional non OPEC
Conventional OPEC
www.csis.org | 6
Source: CSIS, EIA
Enormous Resources Exist, But are Unevenly Distributed and Increasingly Impacted by “Above Ground” Risks
ILLUSTRATIVE PROJECTION Source: USGS UNCONVENTIONAL
CONVENTIONAL
www.csis.org | 7
15 of the Top 20 Largest Oil Companies are NOCs; NOCs control 80-90% of conventional oil and gas reserves; Will play an increasing role in managing resources going forward 6%
77 %
6% 11 % Oil Reserves Held by Russ Companies NOC Oil Reserves (Equity Access) NOC Oil Reserves (Limited Equity Access) Full IOC Access
International Oil Companies
www.csis.org | 8
Sources: PFC Energy, HFHS
Climate Change as Threat Multiplier
www.csis.org | 9 9
Water Scarcity
Demography
Crop Decline
Hunger
Coastal Risks
Recent Conflicts
Good News: Opportunity for Improving Efficiency/Energy Intensity
Energy Intensity, 1000 BTU/$ of GDP
80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 73,032
30,000 20,000 28,686
10,000
18,646 10,508
11,367
13,086
North America
Western Europe
Africa
19,825
0 Asia & Central & Oceania South America
Middle Eastern Eastwww.csis.org Europe & | FSU
Renewables - 2008 US Consumption
www.csis.org | 11
Good News: Unconventional Gas Resources
www.csis.org |
Global Gas Resources
5.6
5.8 3.0 0.8 Europe Russia/ Caspian
North America* 1000 TCF
2.6
20
1.3
Unconventional
Middle East
15
1.4
Africa
Asia Pacific
10
5
Conventional
Latin America •World: ~175 years coverage at 2008 Demand
0
World
•Large unconventional gains anticipated
CERA’s estimate for North America resource recently increased to 3000 TCF Sources: EIA, USGS, NPC; Excludes volumes already produced
www.csis.org |
US Unconventional Gas Resources
www.csis.org |
New Economic Order for Global Hydrocarbons? Unconventional gas resources have become cost competitive
$6/mbtu gas
www.csis.org | Source: IEA, USGS, Nomura Equity Research
www.csis.org | 16 Slide Courtesy of Deutsche Bank
Policy Model Economic Objectives Reliable and Secure Affordable/Accessible
Natural Gas
Supports Economic Growth & Employment
Oil
Nuclear
Defensible
Coal Energy Efficiency
Environmentally Benign
Carbon Capture and Storage
Environmental Objectives Low/no emissions
Renewable Energy
Security & Foreign Policy Promotes/Supports www.csis.org Objectives| Sustainable Environment
