sample presentation for csis
Future Trends and Challenges in Transportation Frank A. Verrastro Director & Senior Fellow
June 8, 2009
Transforming the Transportation Sector • In the past 150 years, the US has undergone at least two energy transitions • Transformation takes decades, large investments and behavioral change • 97% of transport fuels are petroleum-based • Transport needs account for 2/3 of US petroleum consumption
www.csis.org |
Current Situation in the United States •
Average person drives more than 12,000 miles per year and uses 500 gallons of gasoline. Since 1970, VMT increased at almost four times the rate of population growth
•
By 2050, with an economy four times greater than today, freight and passenger transportation is expected to increase by a factor of two-and-a-half
•
Transportation costs represent slightly less than 20% of current household expenses; 30% for lower income households
•
American Society of Civil Engineers estimates the U.S. needs to invest $2.2 trillion over 5 years – about $1.1 trillion more than current spending (less than $200 billion per year) www.csis.org |
The Reference Scenario: Light‐duty vehicle fleet 2005 2030
Africa Middle East Other Asia OECD Pacific Latin America E. Europe/Eurasia India OECD North America China OECD Europe 0
50
100
150
200
250
300 Million
The global light‐duty vehicle stock rises from 650 million in 2005 to about 1.4 billion www.csis.org | by 2030, with China accounting for almost one‐third of the increase WEO, OECD/IEA
Non-electric Fuel Pathways…
Pyrolysis oil Diesel
DME LPG
Petrol Diesel
Blending
CNGLNG
FT Diesel
Methanol
Ethanol Butanol
Synthesis
Biodiesel Renewable (RME) Diesel
Esterfication Extraction
Gasification Pyrolysis Ferm.
Refining
Anaerobic Ferm.
Hydrolysis Crude Oil
Proprietary Processes
Natural Gas
Coal
Ligno-Cell
Starch Crops
Oil Crops
www.csis.org |
FOSSIL FUELS
BIOMASS
Wet Biomass
The end goal is to have transportation services that are… •
Affordable
•
No enduring harm to economy
•
Reliable/Secure
•
Available when needed/limit vulnerability to disruption
•
Environmentally friendly
•
Limit adverse effects to the environment
www.csis.org |
June 8, 2009
Transforming the Transportation Sector • In the past 150 years, the US has undergone at least two energy transitions • Transformation takes decades, large investments and behavioral change • 97% of transport fuels are petroleum-based • Transport needs account for 2/3 of US petroleum consumption
www.csis.org |
Current Situation in the United States •
Average person drives more than 12,000 miles per year and uses 500 gallons of gasoline. Since 1970, VMT increased at almost four times the rate of population growth
•
By 2050, with an economy four times greater than today, freight and passenger transportation is expected to increase by a factor of two-and-a-half
•
Transportation costs represent slightly less than 20% of current household expenses; 30% for lower income households
•
American Society of Civil Engineers estimates the U.S. needs to invest $2.2 trillion over 5 years – about $1.1 trillion more than current spending (less than $200 billion per year) www.csis.org |
The Reference Scenario: Light‐duty vehicle fleet 2005 2030
Africa Middle East Other Asia OECD Pacific Latin America E. Europe/Eurasia India OECD North America China OECD Europe 0
50
100
150
200
250
300 Million
The global light‐duty vehicle stock rises from 650 million in 2005 to about 1.4 billion www.csis.org | by 2030, with China accounting for almost one‐third of the increase WEO, OECD/IEA
Non-electric Fuel Pathways…
Pyrolysis oil Diesel
DME LPG
Petrol Diesel
Blending
CNGLNG
FT Diesel
Methanol
Ethanol Butanol
Synthesis
Biodiesel Renewable (RME) Diesel
Esterfication Extraction
Gasification Pyrolysis Ferm.
Refining
Anaerobic Ferm.
Hydrolysis Crude Oil
Proprietary Processes
Natural Gas
Coal
Ligno-Cell
Starch Crops
Oil Crops
www.csis.org |
FOSSIL FUELS
BIOMASS
Wet Biomass
The end goal is to have transportation services that are… •
Affordable
•
No enduring harm to economy
•
Reliable/Secure
•
Available when needed/limit vulnerability to disruption
•
Environmentally friendly
•
Limit adverse effects to the environment
www.csis.org |
