SEAFCO Buy (15E TP Bt13.73)
Company Update
Close 11.60
Construction Services June 5, 2015
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
High backlog, strong momentum and bright outlook
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.928
0.900
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐3.0%
13.3%
Reuters / Bloomberg
SEAF.BK/SEAFCO TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
305.67
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
4.00/105.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/3.88
52 week High / Low (Bt)
13.05/4.67
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
5,357.00
NVDR (%)
11.22
Estimated free float (%)
62.39
Beta
1.90
URL
www.seafco.co.th
CGR
Good earnings quality, superior ROE and wide upside to share price We maintain our “BUY” rating on the back of: i) a high backlog on hand; ii) positive momentum for new projects as the firm will likely gain piling work for mass transit projects; iii) a brighter earnings outlook for 2Q‐ 3Q15; and iv) the share price implying 19% upside vs. our target price of Bt13.73 (15X PER). High backlog and strong momentum SEAFCO has bid for 60 projects worth Bt3.5bn (exclusive of mass transit projects) since 1Q15. Thus far, the firm has won six projects (Bt450mn) out of 18 project bids (1,125mn), reflecting SEAFCO’s strong market share of 33‐40%. As of the end of 1Q15, SEAFCO’s backlog stood at Bt978mn (state projects: private projects = 25%:75%; labor & material fees = 62%, and labor charges = 38%). Currently, the firm is waiting for the bidding results of 42 projects worth Bt2.33bn, for which the firm expects to win one‐third of the total bids. The results are expected to be released soon. Potential to gain piling work for a mass transit project SEAFCO has been negotiating with China Harbor about possible piling work for the Green Line mass transit project (Mochit – Kookot) for the 2nd contract (winning bidders are UNIQ, Sinohydro and China Harbor). The value of the piling work is estimated at around Bt2bn (for labor charges). Although UNIQ has the potential to do the piling work by itself, other bid winners may have to subcontract foundation work. If this is the case, SEAFCO, a major operator, is expected to gain piling work at around 30‐40% of the total value. This should help to support its backlog on hand. 2015 earnings projection maintained We expect SEAFCO’s revenue and gross profit margin to improve QoQ in 2Q15, driven by its backlog on hand. Note that SEAFCO’s revenue and gross profit margin normally grow well in 2Q and peak in 3Q before weakening slightly in 4Q. We reaffirm our 2015E core profit projection. Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Revenues (Btmn)
1,523
1,307
1,887
2,134
2,454
Net profit (Btmn)
138
138
209
274
312
EPS (Bt)
0.64
0.55 0.72
0.90
1.02
0.64
0.49 0.70
Norm. EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt)
Phornsri Laysanitsaerekul Analyst , no 17621
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6258
‐335% 0.28
0.90
1.02
44%
27%
14%
0.28 0.34
0.45
0.51
‐24%
BV (Bt)
2.99
2.83
3.10
3.48
4.03
FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
18.13
21.09
16.18
12.94
11.37
PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
10.03
11.95 9.00
8.17
7.22
PBV (x)
3.88
4.10 3.74
3.33
2.88
3.87% 27.9% 21.5
4.40% 27.2% 17.8
Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2.39% 12.2% 59.9
2.44% 19.7% 20.6
2.93% 25.1% 0.1
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: Backlog on hand
Source: SEAFCO and KTZMICO Research Figure 2: Backlog detail
Source: SEAFCO and KTZMICO Research Figure 3: Market indicator ratio
Source: SEAFCO and KTZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Figure 4: Valuation comparison with other contractors
Stock
Rating BUY OUTPERFORM OUTPERFORM OUTPERFORM BUY BUY OUTPERFORM BUY BUY
CK ITD NWR PYLON SEAFCO SRICHA STEC STPI TTCL
Price Target Par Mkt Cap FY (Bt) (Bt) (Bt) (Bt m) 27.00 8.25 1.83 10.80 11.60 27.75 22.90 17.20 34.50
31.00 7.90 2.43 9.08 13.73 38.30 22.00 24.01 42.50
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.25 1.00
45,735 43,558 4,731 4,049 3,545 8,561 34,924 27,953 19,320
DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC
Norm. EPS (Bt) 14A 0.74 0.04 (0.01) 0.65 0.70 2.77 1.00 1.89 0.81
15F 0.55 0.12 0.06 0.61 0.90 3.19 0.94 1.74 1.25
16F 0.70 0.14 0.07 0.68 1.02 3.33 1.10 1.71 2.01
Norm. EPS (%) 14A 14.17 (73.97) n.m. 3.13 43.83 (7.97) 1.50 53.28 (41.69)
15F (25.28) 179.38 n.m. (6.82) 27.49 15.21 (5.72) (7.97) 54.89
PER (x) 16F 26.58 11.54 22.75 12.45 13.73 4.37 17.37 (1.29) 60.42
14A 36.71 185.17 (313.65) 16.05 16.49 9.15 22.97 9.12 42.74
15F 49.13 66.28 32.09 17.84 12.94 7.86 24.36 9.91 27.60
PBV (x) 16F 38.82 59.42 26.14 15.86 11.37 7.51 20.76 10.03 17.20
14A 2.39 3.10 1.23 3.49 3.74 3.45 4.18 2.87 3.64
15F 2.33 3.00 1.19 4.15 3.33 2.89 3.79 2.39 3.43
Yield (%) 16F 2.27 2.90 1.15 3.88 2.88 2.46 3.42 1.93 3.16
14A 2.04 0.00 0.00 4.63 2.93 5.59 1.75 3.05 1.74
15F 1.02 0.45 1.01 4.65 3.87 5.75 1.65 2.98 2.16
Source: KTZ Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
ROE (%) 16F 1.29 0.50 1.03 5.11 4.40 6.00 1.93 2.94 3.33
14A 6.98 1.84 ‐0.44 25.52 24.62 38.22 19.08 37.78 8.54
15F 4.81 4.60 3.77 24.55 27.85 40.05 16.33 27.46 12.80
16F 5.93 4.96 4.47 25.27 27.16 35.35 17.32 21.27 19.14
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.