Staff Presentation
Dr. Rachel Feeney/Deirdre Boelke Council Staff Herring Cte meeting October 20, 2016 1
Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) • Council is developing alternatives via management strategy evaluation, involving: • Discussion about the objectives/desired outcomes of the control rule. • Technical analysis to test how the control rules may/may not achieve objectives. prior to approving the Range of Alternatives. • In June, Council approved the objectives, metrics and control rules to be evaluated (input from workshop/PDT/AP/Cte). 2
MSE next steps June-Oct.
Oct. 20
• • • •
Oct. 21 Oct. 27 Nov. 9
• • •
Nov. 10 • Nov. 15-17 • Nov. 21
•
Technical work ongoing (PDT input) 2 Workshop Steering Cte mtgs Workshop date announced (Dec. 7-8) Herring Cte mtg • Approve purpose/goals/agenda Workshop registration opens (website) Workshop Steering Cte mtg Herring Cte mtg • Progress update FR notice for workshop due Council mtg • Progress update Workshop documents distributed 3
MSE next steps Dec. 7-8 • MSE workshop #2 • Review outcomes • Narrow CR alternatives • Recommend any additional MSE work Mid-Dec. • Workshop report • Potential (minor) MSE iteration • Herring PDT mtg • Review outcomes • Develop alternatives Early Jan. • MSE final report • Herring AP/Cte mtgs • Review outcomes • Develop alternatives Jan. 24-26 • Council mtg – approve alternatives range 4
MSE workshop #2 December 7-8, 2016 Portsmouth, NH Steering Committee: • Herring Cte - Peter Kendall, Mark Gibson • Council staff - Deirdre Boelke, Rachel Feeney • NEFSC - Sarah Gaichas, Jon Deroba • GARFO - Carrie Nordeen Facilitator: Brian Irwin, Georgia Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit, University of Georgia 5
MSE workshop #1 - PARTICIPATION 69 Participants: • Herring fishermen • Herring industry reps. • Lobstermen • Commercial, party/charter and private angler fishermen of tuna, groundfish, and striped bass • Fishing community and environmental non-profit organization staff • Scientists • Whale-watch businesses • Federal and state agencies • Herring Committee and Advisory Panel members • Council staff. Of those 69, 61% attended for both days, 29% attended for just the 1st day, and 10% attended for just the 2nd day.
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MSE workshop #1 - EVALUATION 15 attendees submitted evaluation forms (22%) Stakeholder Type Respondents (#) Academic 2 ENGO 2 Government 5 Herring Fishery 1 Predator Fishery 4 Commercial Fishery* 1 * Unknown if affiliated with herring or predator fishery
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MSE workshop #1 - EVALUATION Question
Average Response
1. I was well-informed about the workshop and its goals/objectives. 2.The background material provided was sufficient to feel prepared for the workshop. 3.The facilitators and presenters were well-prepared. 4.The presentations were clear and made technical information understandable. 5. I had sufficient opportunity to provide input. 6.The workshop’s goals/objectives have been accomplished. 7.The workshop lived up to my expectations. 8. A follow-up workshop after the simulations would be helpful. 9. In general, a workshop is an effective forum to give input in the Council process. Response codes: 1 = strongly disagree; 2 = disagree; 3 = neutral; 4 = agree; 5 = strongly agree
4.1 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 3.3 3.5 4.6 4.0
8
MSE workshop #1 - EVALUATION Other comments (selected): • Agenda • Not enough time for each topic (1) • Agenda could have fit into one day (2) • Having small groups report out was wasted time (2) • Time for input was adequate (1) • Facilitators/presenters • It’s a tough crowd to prepare for (1) • Did a great job with difficult task (1) • Be more assertive to make workshop more productive (1) • Presentations • Presenting background material is unnecessary (1) • More time on lingo definitions (1) • More focus on explaining the current control rule (2) 9
MSE workshop #1 - EVALUATION Other comments (selected): • Atmosphere • Council members should be mute or less involved (2) • Difficult to: • express views - dominant small group members (1) • navigate various levels of attendees’ understanding (1) • Diversity of attendees and their input was valuable (12) • Respectful atmosphere (4) • Other • My understanding improved about MSE and Council process (2) • Have a workshop on spatial and allocation issues (2) • Workshop will be valuable if results are used by the Council (1) 10
MSE workshop #2 DRAFT Purpose: To provide continued opportunities for public input on the ongoing MSE of Atlantic herring ABC control rules. DRAFT Goals: 1. Develop a common understanding of the outcomes of the MSE technical simulations, which tested the performance of a range of ABC control rules relative to potential objectives, as identified at the May 2016 public workshop and approved by the Council in June. 11
MSE workshop #2 DRAFT Goals (cont.): 2. Solicit information from stakeholders on: a. Identifying acceptable ranges of performance for various metrics, so that tradeoffs in achieving objectives may be identified. b. Narrowing the range of Atlantic herring ABC control rule alternatives to consider in more detail. c. What, if any, additional (minor) MSE simulation work would be informative for establishing a long-term ABC control rule. 12
MSE workshop #2 DRAFT Goals (cont.): 3. Provide an opportunity for stakeholders of the Atlantic herring fishery to have greater input than typically possible at Council meetings, in an environment that supports constructive and open dialogue between users of the resource, scientific experts, fishery managers, and other interested members of the public. 13
MSE outcomes Six Control rules analyzed.... 1. Biomass based 2. Biomass based 3-year block (incl. status quo) 3. Biomass based 5-year block 4. Biomass based 3-year block, but catch cannot change more than 15% per year 5. Constant catch 6. Conditional constant catch (cannot fish harder than 50% of FMSY). ...of many shapes... • hinge points, intercepts • 1,356 iterations per control rule
1,356 x6 8,136
14
MSE outcomes ...under eight operating models... • Combinations of recruitment (low/high), natural mortality (low/high), growth (low/high), and assessment bias (yes/no). ...producing >66,000 possible scenarios. What is a “reasonable” range of alternatives? 8,136?
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MSE outcomes Presenting results in a digestible format • Focus on understanding outcomes under the current assumptions (high natural mortality, low recruitment, low growth, no assessment bias). • Focus on scenarios that would produce legal conditions (e.g., not overfished, stock collapse prevented). • Briefly describe other results for comparison.
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MSE workshop #2 - agenda Day 1 • Setting the stage • Summary of Workshop #1 outcomes • Understand the MSE methods used • Understand the MSE outcomes • Input on refining and further identifying acceptable ranges of performance for various metrics Day 2 • Understand and give input on potential tradeoffs • Input on narrowing range of control rules • Consider robustness to operating models • Input on additional work before MSE is finished 17
Committee task • Provide feedback from Workshop #1 or input to help shape Workshop #2 • Are plans for Workshop #2 meeting expectations? • Review and approve Workshop #2 Purpose, Goals, and Agenda.
18
Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) • Council is developing alternatives via management strategy evaluation, involving: • Discussion about the objectives/desired outcomes of the control rule. • Technical analysis to test how the control rules may/may not achieve objectives. prior to approving the Range of Alternatives. • In June, Council approved the objectives, metrics and control rules to be evaluated (input from workshop/PDT/AP/Cte). 2
MSE next steps June-Oct.
Oct. 20
• • • •
Oct. 21 Oct. 27 Nov. 9
• • •
Nov. 10 • Nov. 15-17 • Nov. 21
•
Technical work ongoing (PDT input) 2 Workshop Steering Cte mtgs Workshop date announced (Dec. 7-8) Herring Cte mtg • Approve purpose/goals/agenda Workshop registration opens (website) Workshop Steering Cte mtg Herring Cte mtg • Progress update FR notice for workshop due Council mtg • Progress update Workshop documents distributed 3
MSE next steps Dec. 7-8 • MSE workshop #2 • Review outcomes • Narrow CR alternatives • Recommend any additional MSE work Mid-Dec. • Workshop report • Potential (minor) MSE iteration • Herring PDT mtg • Review outcomes • Develop alternatives Early Jan. • MSE final report • Herring AP/Cte mtgs • Review outcomes • Develop alternatives Jan. 24-26 • Council mtg – approve alternatives range 4
MSE workshop #2 December 7-8, 2016 Portsmouth, NH Steering Committee: • Herring Cte - Peter Kendall, Mark Gibson • Council staff - Deirdre Boelke, Rachel Feeney • NEFSC - Sarah Gaichas, Jon Deroba • GARFO - Carrie Nordeen Facilitator: Brian Irwin, Georgia Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit, University of Georgia 5
MSE workshop #1 - PARTICIPATION 69 Participants: • Herring fishermen • Herring industry reps. • Lobstermen • Commercial, party/charter and private angler fishermen of tuna, groundfish, and striped bass • Fishing community and environmental non-profit organization staff • Scientists • Whale-watch businesses • Federal and state agencies • Herring Committee and Advisory Panel members • Council staff. Of those 69, 61% attended for both days, 29% attended for just the 1st day, and 10% attended for just the 2nd day.
6
MSE workshop #1 - EVALUATION 15 attendees submitted evaluation forms (22%) Stakeholder Type Respondents (#) Academic 2 ENGO 2 Government 5 Herring Fishery 1 Predator Fishery 4 Commercial Fishery* 1 * Unknown if affiliated with herring or predator fishery
7
MSE workshop #1 - EVALUATION Question
Average Response
1. I was well-informed about the workshop and its goals/objectives. 2.The background material provided was sufficient to feel prepared for the workshop. 3.The facilitators and presenters were well-prepared. 4.The presentations were clear and made technical information understandable. 5. I had sufficient opportunity to provide input. 6.The workshop’s goals/objectives have been accomplished. 7.The workshop lived up to my expectations. 8. A follow-up workshop after the simulations would be helpful. 9. In general, a workshop is an effective forum to give input in the Council process. Response codes: 1 = strongly disagree; 2 = disagree; 3 = neutral; 4 = agree; 5 = strongly agree
4.1 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 3.3 3.5 4.6 4.0
8
MSE workshop #1 - EVALUATION Other comments (selected): • Agenda • Not enough time for each topic (1) • Agenda could have fit into one day (2) • Having small groups report out was wasted time (2) • Time for input was adequate (1) • Facilitators/presenters • It’s a tough crowd to prepare for (1) • Did a great job with difficult task (1) • Be more assertive to make workshop more productive (1) • Presentations • Presenting background material is unnecessary (1) • More time on lingo definitions (1) • More focus on explaining the current control rule (2) 9
MSE workshop #1 - EVALUATION Other comments (selected): • Atmosphere • Council members should be mute or less involved (2) • Difficult to: • express views - dominant small group members (1) • navigate various levels of attendees’ understanding (1) • Diversity of attendees and their input was valuable (12) • Respectful atmosphere (4) • Other • My understanding improved about MSE and Council process (2) • Have a workshop on spatial and allocation issues (2) • Workshop will be valuable if results are used by the Council (1) 10
MSE workshop #2 DRAFT Purpose: To provide continued opportunities for public input on the ongoing MSE of Atlantic herring ABC control rules. DRAFT Goals: 1. Develop a common understanding of the outcomes of the MSE technical simulations, which tested the performance of a range of ABC control rules relative to potential objectives, as identified at the May 2016 public workshop and approved by the Council in June. 11
MSE workshop #2 DRAFT Goals (cont.): 2. Solicit information from stakeholders on: a. Identifying acceptable ranges of performance for various metrics, so that tradeoffs in achieving objectives may be identified. b. Narrowing the range of Atlantic herring ABC control rule alternatives to consider in more detail. c. What, if any, additional (minor) MSE simulation work would be informative for establishing a long-term ABC control rule. 12
MSE workshop #2 DRAFT Goals (cont.): 3. Provide an opportunity for stakeholders of the Atlantic herring fishery to have greater input than typically possible at Council meetings, in an environment that supports constructive and open dialogue between users of the resource, scientific experts, fishery managers, and other interested members of the public. 13
MSE outcomes Six Control rules analyzed.... 1. Biomass based 2. Biomass based 3-year block (incl. status quo) 3. Biomass based 5-year block 4. Biomass based 3-year block, but catch cannot change more than 15% per year 5. Constant catch 6. Conditional constant catch (cannot fish harder than 50% of FMSY). ...of many shapes... • hinge points, intercepts • 1,356 iterations per control rule
1,356 x6 8,136
14
MSE outcomes ...under eight operating models... • Combinations of recruitment (low/high), natural mortality (low/high), growth (low/high), and assessment bias (yes/no). ...producing >66,000 possible scenarios. What is a “reasonable” range of alternatives? 8,136?
15
MSE outcomes Presenting results in a digestible format • Focus on understanding outcomes under the current assumptions (high natural mortality, low recruitment, low growth, no assessment bias). • Focus on scenarios that would produce legal conditions (e.g., not overfished, stock collapse prevented). • Briefly describe other results for comparison.
16
MSE workshop #2 - agenda Day 1 • Setting the stage • Summary of Workshop #1 outcomes • Understand the MSE methods used • Understand the MSE outcomes • Input on refining and further identifying acceptable ranges of performance for various metrics Day 2 • Understand and give input on potential tradeoffs • Input on narrowing range of control rules • Consider robustness to operating models • Input on additional work before MSE is finished 17
Committee task • Provide feedback from Workshop #1 or input to help shape Workshop #2 • Are plans for Workshop #2 meeting expectations? • Review and approve Workshop #2 Purpose, Goals, and Agenda.
18
