Staff Presentation
Deirdre Boelke, NEFMC Staff, Scallop PDT Chair
October 7, 2015 – Boston, MA 1
Agenda Review and finalize OFL and ABC estimates for FW27 Review preliminary FW27 projections including discussion of
updated LPUE function Discuss final range of alternatives including: 1. possible expansion of ETA closed 2. possible closure of HC 3. closure of CA2 extension 4. limited access in NL SAMS online progress
2
Close HC seasonally or portion of HC
Potential access in NL north only
New closure south of CA2 (south and east to Hague Line)
Modification of ETA Closed (shift south and east leaving deeper water open) 3
Framework 27 – Document #2 Purpose and Need The purpose of this action is to prevent overfishing and improve
yield-per-recruit from the fishery. The need for this action is to set specifications to adjust the dayat-sea (DAS) allocations, general category fishery allocations and area rotation schedule for 2016 and 2017 (default) No additional measures considered
4
Potential Fishery Specifications No Action – Default measures
26DAS (75% of projected 34 DAS); 1 MA access area trip; 3.7 mil lbs for LAGC IFQ Base Run – Projected catch over 45 million lbs. (modest increase in DAS and IFQ; 3 access area trips) Additional measures to protect small scallops - Expand Elephant Trunk closed - Close all or part of Hudson Canyon - Close area south and east of Closed Area II Consider limited access in Nantucket Lightship north FY2015 – 38 million lbs.; 31 DAS; 3 access area trips; 3.0 mill lbs for LAGC IFQ (not a FW27 alternative)
5
Alternatives to date (in excel file) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
No Action Base Run Base run plus closure of CA2 extension Base run with limited access in NL Base run with added assumption of density dependent mortality Status Quo – 2015 allocations
Preliminary Results – Do not reference 6
Runs to discuss further Expansion of ETA closed HC closure (part of area or seasonal only) Combined runs (i.e. CA2 expansion + ETA expansion)
7
Contours are Recruitment (75 mm)
ETA closed Extension
SH Frequencies 2015 NEFSC dredge
8
HC Closure
Contours are Recruitment (95 mm)
Projected SH Frequencies
9
CA2 Extension Contours are Recruitment (95 mm)
SH Frequencies 2015 NEFSC dredge
10
NL Access
SH Freq. 2015 NEFSC dredge
11
FY2016 Summary of runs to date 1. No Action 2. Basic alt 3. c2xclosed 4.nls 5.densdep 7. SQ
OveralF 0.06 0.11 0.10 0.11 0.14 0.11
OpF 0.36 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.41
Total LPUE landings ALL 30.6 2389 48.5 2347 46.9 2336 48.5 2365 47.9 2352 44.8 2346
LPUE OPEN 2386 2306 2288 2306 2292 2350
TDAS 12813 20674 20092 20516 20348 19100
OA DAS ARSWPT 2329 26 36 3614 35 3521 3609 36 3773 36 31 3058
12
ST and LT Landings (mil lbs) subperiod 2016-2017 2016-2017 Total 2018-2010 2018-2010 Total 2021-2029
2021-2029 Total Grand Total
3. 2. Basic alt c2xclosed 4.nls 45 49 47 84 83 84
5.densdep 49 48 83 67
2018 2019 2020
118 118 136 116
129 115 133 115
131 114 132 115
131 119 131 116
132 114 132 115
115 80 82 68
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
370 96 78 68 63 61 62 62 61 65
363 95 78 68 63 61 62 62 61 65
361 95 78 68 63 61 62 62 61 65
366 94 77 67 63 61 61 62 61 65
361 95 78 68 63 61 62 62 61 65
231 58 51 47 46 46 46 46 47 49
615 1104
615 1107
614 1106
612 1108
614 1107
437 782
1. No Fishing year Action 7. SQ 2016 31 2017 88
13
ST and LT DAS for FT LA vessels subperiod 2016-2017 2016-2017 Total 2018-2010
2018-2010 Total 2021-2029
2021-2029 Total Grand Total
3. 1. No Fishing year Action c2xclosed 4.nls 2. Basic alt 7. SQ 2016 26 36 31 35 2017 52 47 48 49 78 83 79 84 2018 54 49 50 52 2019 122 112 112 112 2020 108 103 103 103 284 264 265 267 2021 84 81 81 82 2022 72 70 70 70 2023 66 65 65 65 2024 63 62 62 62 2025 62 61 61 61 2026 63 63 63 63 2027 64 64 64 64 2028 64 63 63 63 2029 69 69 69 69 607 598 598 599 969 945 942 950
5.densdep 36 36 47 45 83 81 49 48 112 73 103 70 264 191 81 59 70 54 65 51 62 50 61 50 63 51 64 51 63 51 69 55 598 472 945 744 14
ST and LT LPUE estimates subperiod 2016-2017 2016-2017 Total 2018-2010
2018-2010 Total 2021-2029
2021-2029 Total Grand Total
1. No 3. Fishing year Action c2xclosed 4.nls 5.densdep 2. Basic alt 7. SQ 2016 2389 2347 2346 2336 2365 2352 2017 2719 2695 2708 2681 2695 2640
2018 2019 2020
2554 2903 2561 2823
2521 2890 2560 2822
2527 2898 2567 2821
2509 2901 2594 2814
2530 2889 2559 2822
2496 2762 2533 2473
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
2762 2887 2710 2574 2504 2470 2446 2434 2424 2412
2757 2886 2709 2573 2503 2470 2447 2436 2425 2413
2762 2887 2710 2574 2504 2471 2447 2436 2426 2414
2770 2872 2696 2564 2498 2467 2445 2434 2425 2413
2757 2885 2708 2572 2503 2470 2446 2435 2425 2413
2589 2459 2329 2279 2260 2253 2255 2258 2248 2245
2540 2590
2540 2584
2541 2586
2535 2581
2540 2585
2287 2382
15
MA AA usage
11 million through August
16
What’s next? SSC Meeting – October 13, 2015 to approve OFL/ABC PDT Meeting/Call - October 28, 2015 to review analyses AP and Cmte Meetings - Nov 18 and 19 to review analyses
and select preferred alternatives Final Council Action – December 1-3, 2015 FW27 implementation in April 2016
17
October 7, 2015 – Boston, MA 1
Agenda Review and finalize OFL and ABC estimates for FW27 Review preliminary FW27 projections including discussion of
updated LPUE function Discuss final range of alternatives including: 1. possible expansion of ETA closed 2. possible closure of HC 3. closure of CA2 extension 4. limited access in NL SAMS online progress
2
Close HC seasonally or portion of HC
Potential access in NL north only
New closure south of CA2 (south and east to Hague Line)
Modification of ETA Closed (shift south and east leaving deeper water open) 3
Framework 27 – Document #2 Purpose and Need The purpose of this action is to prevent overfishing and improve
yield-per-recruit from the fishery. The need for this action is to set specifications to adjust the dayat-sea (DAS) allocations, general category fishery allocations and area rotation schedule for 2016 and 2017 (default) No additional measures considered
4
Potential Fishery Specifications No Action – Default measures
26DAS (75% of projected 34 DAS); 1 MA access area trip; 3.7 mil lbs for LAGC IFQ Base Run – Projected catch over 45 million lbs. (modest increase in DAS and IFQ; 3 access area trips) Additional measures to protect small scallops - Expand Elephant Trunk closed - Close all or part of Hudson Canyon - Close area south and east of Closed Area II Consider limited access in Nantucket Lightship north FY2015 – 38 million lbs.; 31 DAS; 3 access area trips; 3.0 mill lbs for LAGC IFQ (not a FW27 alternative)
5
Alternatives to date (in excel file) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
No Action Base Run Base run plus closure of CA2 extension Base run with limited access in NL Base run with added assumption of density dependent mortality Status Quo – 2015 allocations
Preliminary Results – Do not reference 6
Runs to discuss further Expansion of ETA closed HC closure (part of area or seasonal only) Combined runs (i.e. CA2 expansion + ETA expansion)
7
Contours are Recruitment (75 mm)
ETA closed Extension
SH Frequencies 2015 NEFSC dredge
8
HC Closure
Contours are Recruitment (95 mm)
Projected SH Frequencies
9
CA2 Extension Contours are Recruitment (95 mm)
SH Frequencies 2015 NEFSC dredge
10
NL Access
SH Freq. 2015 NEFSC dredge
11
FY2016 Summary of runs to date 1. No Action 2. Basic alt 3. c2xclosed 4.nls 5.densdep 7. SQ
OveralF 0.06 0.11 0.10 0.11 0.14 0.11
OpF 0.36 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.41
Total LPUE landings ALL 30.6 2389 48.5 2347 46.9 2336 48.5 2365 47.9 2352 44.8 2346
LPUE OPEN 2386 2306 2288 2306 2292 2350
TDAS 12813 20674 20092 20516 20348 19100
OA DAS ARSWPT 2329 26 36 3614 35 3521 3609 36 3773 36 31 3058
12
ST and LT Landings (mil lbs) subperiod 2016-2017 2016-2017 Total 2018-2010 2018-2010 Total 2021-2029
2021-2029 Total Grand Total
3. 2. Basic alt c2xclosed 4.nls 45 49 47 84 83 84
5.densdep 49 48 83 67
2018 2019 2020
118 118 136 116
129 115 133 115
131 114 132 115
131 119 131 116
132 114 132 115
115 80 82 68
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
370 96 78 68 63 61 62 62 61 65
363 95 78 68 63 61 62 62 61 65
361 95 78 68 63 61 62 62 61 65
366 94 77 67 63 61 61 62 61 65
361 95 78 68 63 61 62 62 61 65
231 58 51 47 46 46 46 46 47 49
615 1104
615 1107
614 1106
612 1108
614 1107
437 782
1. No Fishing year Action 7. SQ 2016 31 2017 88
13
ST and LT DAS for FT LA vessels subperiod 2016-2017 2016-2017 Total 2018-2010
2018-2010 Total 2021-2029
2021-2029 Total Grand Total
3. 1. No Fishing year Action c2xclosed 4.nls 2. Basic alt 7. SQ 2016 26 36 31 35 2017 52 47 48 49 78 83 79 84 2018 54 49 50 52 2019 122 112 112 112 2020 108 103 103 103 284 264 265 267 2021 84 81 81 82 2022 72 70 70 70 2023 66 65 65 65 2024 63 62 62 62 2025 62 61 61 61 2026 63 63 63 63 2027 64 64 64 64 2028 64 63 63 63 2029 69 69 69 69 607 598 598 599 969 945 942 950
5.densdep 36 36 47 45 83 81 49 48 112 73 103 70 264 191 81 59 70 54 65 51 62 50 61 50 63 51 64 51 63 51 69 55 598 472 945 744 14
ST and LT LPUE estimates subperiod 2016-2017 2016-2017 Total 2018-2010
2018-2010 Total 2021-2029
2021-2029 Total Grand Total
1. No 3. Fishing year Action c2xclosed 4.nls 5.densdep 2. Basic alt 7. SQ 2016 2389 2347 2346 2336 2365 2352 2017 2719 2695 2708 2681 2695 2640
2018 2019 2020
2554 2903 2561 2823
2521 2890 2560 2822
2527 2898 2567 2821
2509 2901 2594 2814
2530 2889 2559 2822
2496 2762 2533 2473
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
2762 2887 2710 2574 2504 2470 2446 2434 2424 2412
2757 2886 2709 2573 2503 2470 2447 2436 2425 2413
2762 2887 2710 2574 2504 2471 2447 2436 2426 2414
2770 2872 2696 2564 2498 2467 2445 2434 2425 2413
2757 2885 2708 2572 2503 2470 2446 2435 2425 2413
2589 2459 2329 2279 2260 2253 2255 2258 2248 2245
2540 2590
2540 2584
2541 2586
2535 2581
2540 2585
2287 2382
15
MA AA usage
11 million through August
16
What’s next? SSC Meeting – October 13, 2015 to approve OFL/ABC PDT Meeting/Call - October 28, 2015 to review analyses AP and Cmte Meetings - Nov 18 and 19 to review analyses
and select preferred alternatives Final Council Action – December 1-3, 2015 FW27 implementation in April 2016
17
