Thaicom Buy (2017E TP Bt33.00)
Company Update
Close Bt20.70
ICT
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
January 12, 2017
Regulatory overhang nearing the end? Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.890
1.761
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐10.6%
12.4%
Reuters / Bloomberg
THCOM.BK/THCOM TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,095.99
Par (Bt)
5.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
23.00/638.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
40.00/16.93
52 week High / Low (Bt)
30.00/16.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
5,179.00 7.43
Estimated free float (%)
51.25
Beta
0.72
URL
www.thaicom.net
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
Waraporn Wiboonkanarak Analyst, no. 2482
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6273
Cheap valuation; BUY maintained THCOM’s share price has bounced back strongly YTD in contrast with its weak near‐term earnings performance. We believe this was due to the expectation of a positive resolution to overhanging regulatory issues. Its undemanding valuation, trading at 4.4x 2017E EV/EBITDA (‐1.5SD), makes the stock look like a bargain. Moreover, the attainment of sizable new orders will be another catalyst. Thus, our BUY call is maintained. Resolving overhanging regulatory issues Meeting between THCOM and the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society on overhanging regulatory issues began at the end of last year, according to a local newspaper. In addition to offering usage of one free transponder for each license‐based satellite, THCOM proposes to extend its payment on revenue sharing of 22.5% for concession‐based satellites until the end of the satellite’s life, not the concession’s expiration in 2021. It is acceptable, in our view, for THCOM to make some sacrifice in order to pave the way for future business growth. We reaffirm that the overhanging regulatory issues will be sorted out within 1H17 with a win‐ win resolution. Core operation remains weak Our 2016E NP is trimmed by 9% to Bt1.84bn (‐13%YoY) after factoring in expected Fx loss in 4Q16E due to the depreciation of the baht (3%QoQ) vs. the USD with no change in the core operation estimate. For 4Q16E, we expect THCOM to post a net profit of Bt123mn (EPS Bt0.11), the worst quarter of the year. The expected 84%YoY and 72%QoQ decrease in 4Q16E NP is mainly blamed on Fx loss. If stripping out Fx loss, its core earnings should fall 62%YoY and 18%QoQ to Bt290mn. Satellite service revenue likely decreased 1%QoQ with regards to a full‐quarter impact from CTH’s business termination. On the other hand, revenue sharing for concession‐based revenue, approximately 90% of total service revenue, should increase to 22.5% from 20.5%. While we expect CSL’s core operation to be flat QoQ, shared profit from LTC should increase by 20%QoQ (flat YoY) due to seasonality. We make no revision on our 2017E‐2018E earnings forecasts. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm EPS (Bt) Norm EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 12,065 1,601 1.46 1.71 24.2% 0.65 15.77 2014 23.79 8.67 2.20 1.9% 11.5% 38.2%
2015 12,454 2,122 1.94 2.11 23.5% 0.65 16.53 2015 14.98 6.66 1.75 2.2% 13.3% 37.0%
2016E 11,621 1,848 1.69 1.66 ‐21.2% 0.67 17.57 2016E 11.51 5.35 1.10 3.5% 10.0% 41.9%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
2017E 12,407 2,167 1.98 1.98 19.2% 0.79 18.88 2017E 10.47 4.42 1.10 3.8% 11.1% 23.5%
2018E 12,510 2,215 2.02 2.02 2.2% 0.81 20.12 2018E 10.24 3.59 1.03 3.9% 10.6% ‐0.9%
Figure 1: Earnings preview Profit and Loss Statement (Btmn) Fiscal Year‐Ended Dec. 4Q15 Revenue 3,294 Gross Profit 1,380 EBITDA 1,523 Share of profit from affiliate 83 Interest Expense 56 Other income 45 Net profit (loss) 745 Core profit (loss) 762 Reported EPS (THB) 0.68 Gross margin (%) 41.9% EBITDA margin (%) 46.2% Net margin (%) 22.6% Current ratio (x) 1.83 16.52 Interest coverage (x) Debt to equity (x) 0.88 BVPS (Bt) 16.14 ROE (%) 4.3%
3Q16 2,791 1,034 1,297 51 108 39 434 355 0.40 37.1% 46.5% 15.5% 2.77 4.55 0.70 16.94 1.9%
4Q16E 2,718 906 1,266 84 108 46 123 290 0.11 33.3% 46.6% 4.5% 1.69 3.93 0.85 17.13 1.5%
%QoQ ‐2.6% ‐12.4% ‐2.4% 65.2% 0.2% 19.6% ‐71.7% ‐18.2% ‐71.7% ‐3.7% 0.1% ‐11.0%
1.1%
%YoY ‐17.5% ‐34.4% ‐16.9% 0.5% 91.4% 1.2% ‐83.5% ‐62.0% ‐83.5% ‐8.6% 0.4% ‐18.1%
9M16 8,903 3,618 4,220 154 250 128 1,725 1,529 1.57 40.6% 47.4% 19.4% 2.77 8.28 0.70 6.1% 16.94 1.9%
%YoY ‐2.8% ‐2.7% ‐0.8% 39.5% 0.2% 18.5% 25.2% ‐6.7% 25.2%
2016E 11,621 4,524 5,486 238 358 174 1,848 1,809 1.69 38.9% 47.2% 15.9% 1.91 7.31 0.82 8.2% 17.57 10.0%
YTD %YoY (% of 2016E) ‐6.7% 76.6% ‐11.3% 80.0% ‐5.0% 76.9% 22.8% 64.8% 17.0% 69.8% 13.4% 73.6% ‐12.9% 93.4% ‐24.1% 84.5% ‐12.9% 93.4% ‐2.0% 0.8% ‐1.1%
6.3%
Figure 2: PER and EV/EBITDA band
Source: THCOM and KT Zmico Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068