TPC Power Holding AWS
TPC Power Holding Underperform (16E TP Bt18.80)
Company Update
Close Bt17.70
mai ‐ Resources December 16, 2015
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Seeking outbound growth as domestic slows down Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.120
0.638
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐25%
‐32.6%
Reuters / Bloomberg
TPCH.BK/TPCH TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
401.20
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
7.00/198.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/0.00
52 week High / Low (Bt)
27.00/13.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
5,448.00
NVDR (%)
1.97
Estimated free float (%)
31.23
Beta
1.95
URL
www.tpcpower.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 3B (Established)
Anapat Wanuschaiyapruk Analyst, no 57076 [email protected] 66 (0) 2-624‐6289
Uncertain growth prospects…downgrade to Underperform The company views that the domestic renewable energy industry will not see large capacity expansion over the next few years due to the faster‐ than‐expected development of the sector, which is similar to our view. TPCH is now starting to seek growth outside Thailand and we think this might not be easy. All projects on hand are going according to the plan with some delays. We fine‐tune our forecasts to reflect the change in the COD of projects in the pipeline. NP decreases from Bt44mn to Bt37mn in 15E and from Bt308mn to Bt174mn in 16E. We keep our 16E TP unchanged but cut the rating to Underperform due to the unfavorable growth outlook. Softer view on domestic business leads to a hunt for outbound growth TPCH has signed an MOU with a partner in Cambodia to develop a 90MW biomass power plant project. The project will be divided into three phases, 30MW each, and use energy crop for biomass feed, which will be planted on the partnership’s land. Although this provides potential growth, some risk is entailed, such as regulations and the source of funding. Apart from that, the company also has 80MW hydropower projects but they are still under study. Domestic growth is uncertain Domestic growth will come from both M&A and bidding for new projects. The company said that it is doing due diligence on two projects that would add 20MW to its capacity. The projects are under the Adder system, which indicates they will have IRR lower than 16% (CRB’s level). There is also risk of PPA being recalled as the regulator is now trying to clear undeveloped projects. Regarding FiT bidding, ERC has already finished the second round of hearings and we hope the bidding will not be postponed again. However, we expect fierce competition and consequently low project IRR, which provides unattractive upside. Fine‐tune net profit forecasts and downgrade to Underperform The COD of the third power plant will be delayed by two months (expected around the end of Jan’16). The fourth project will start operation in mid‐16E, five months later than we expected. We fine‐tune our net profit forecasts accordingly, but maintain the 16E TP at Bt18.80/share (includes 106MW in the pipeline). However, due to the unfavorable growth outlook, we downgrade TPCH to Underperform. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt)
2014 258 28 0.09 80.0% 0.00 4.87
2015E 303 37 0.09 2.8% 0.01 5.69
2016E 662 174 0.43 369.1% 0.09 6.21
2017E 1,885 535 1.33 207.5% 0.40 7.30
2018E 2,459 688 1.71 28.4% 0.69 8.17
FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 196.7 73.61 3.63 0.0% 2.5% ‐18%
2015E 191.3 58.48 3.11 0.1% 2.1% 1%
2016E 40.77 21.42 2.85 0.5% 9.7% 101%
2017E 13.26 6.65 2.42 2.3% 27.0% 114%
2018E 10.32 5.29 2.17 3.9% 31.1% 87%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: TPCH’s projects in the pipeline
MW 120
COD of PPG and SGP Total capacity 20MW
100
COD of MGP Capacity 9.9MW
80 60
COD of TSG Capacity 9.9MW
COD of MWE Capacity 9.9MW
60
60
30 10
10
38
38
0
7
7
7
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q16
1Q17
83
83
83
83
53
53
53
53
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
30
20 10
106
40
40 20
COD of PTG phase 2 Capacity 23MW
COD of PTG phase 1 Capacity 23MW
16
20
20
27
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
Equity MW
68
2Q18
Consolidated
Source: TPCH, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: Electricity production of CRB (million kWh)
Figure 3: Revenue of CRB (Bt’mn)
Source: TPCH
Source: TPCH
Figure 4: Electricity production of MWE (kWh)
Source: TPCH
Figure 5: TPCH’s installed capacity plan
Source: TPCH
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Gain (loss) from affiliates Extra Items Non‐controlling Net profit Reported EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories Investment PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Accounts payable Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Non‐cash adjustment Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 180 (95) 85 (41) 44 (22) 23 (23) 16 16 (0) 0 0 (6) 10 0.05 10 0.05 0.00
2014 258 (119) 139 (45) 95 (27) 67 (28) 4 43 7 0 0 (21) 28 0.09 28 0.09 0.00
2015E 303 (127) 176 (57) 119 (32) 87 (26) 3 64 0 0 0 (26) 37 0.09 37 0.09 0.01
2016E 662 (267) 395 (70) 325 (74) 251 (87) 0 163 0 50 0 (39) 174 0.43 174 0.43 0.09
2013 279 14 0 0 718 172 1,183 74 20 413 525 311 658 1,183
2014 1,372 55 0 0 1,406 248 3,082 174 24 842 1,134 400 1,948 3,082
2015E 1,808 83 0 92 2,014 248 4,245 119 26 1,720 1,961 401 2,284 4,245
2016E 631 109 0 142 4,649 248 5,780 193 44 2,955 3,288 401 2,492 5,780
2013 24 16 22 (26) 36 (131) (6) (136) 48 381 0 (60) 369 268 (100) (0.36)
2014 50 5 27 (0) 82 (844) (8) (852) 526 1,140 0 197 1,864 1,093 (770) (2.48)
2015E 64 0 32 (25) 71 (732) 0 (732) 824 4 (10) 279 1,097 436 (661) (1.65)
2016E 213 (50) 74 (8) 230 (2,710) 0 (2,710) 1,310 0 (32) 26 1,304 (1,176) (2,480) (6.18)
2013 0.0% ‐580% ‐350% 47.2% 24.5% 12.6% 5.4% 5.4% 1.7%
2014 43.3% 113.8% 80.0% 53.9% 36.6% 26.1% 11.0% 11.0% ‐15.4%
2015E 17.5% 25.9% 2.8% 58.0% 39.2% 28.6% 12.2% 12.2% 0.0%
2016E 118.2% 173.0% 369.1% 59.6% 49.1% 37.9% 26.3% 26.3% 0.0%
2017E 1,885 (765) 1,120 (74) 1,046 (166) 881 (137) 0 743 0 65 0 (272) 535 1.33 535 1.33 0.40
2017E 473 310 0 178 5,784 248 6,992 319 146 3,503 4,063 401 2,929 6,992
2018E 2,459 (1,065) 1,394 (80) 1,315 (218) 1,097 (168) 0 929 0 59 0 (301) 688 1.71 688 1.71 0.69 2018E 561 404 0 194 5,566 248 6,973 542 194 2,865 3,696 401 3,277 6,973
2017E 808 (65) 166 (99) 810 (1,300) 28 (1,272) 673 0 (98) (272) 303 (159) (462) (1.15)
2018E 988 (59) 218 (46) 1,101 0 43 43 (415) 0 (340) (301) (1,056) 88 1,144 2.85
2017E 184.7% 222.1% 207.5% 59.4% 55.5% 46.7% 28.4% 28.4% 0.0%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
2018E 30.5% 25.6% 28.4% 56.7% 53.5% 44.6% 28.0% 28.0% 0.0%
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, KBS, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, CPI . KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, PLE, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY, TFG, EARTH. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of SCI, SR, J, TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Company Update
Close Bt17.70
mai ‐ Resources December 16, 2015
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Seeking outbound growth as domestic slows down Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.120
0.638
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐25%
‐32.6%
Reuters / Bloomberg
TPCH.BK/TPCH TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
401.20
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
7.00/198.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/0.00
52 week High / Low (Bt)
27.00/13.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
5,448.00
NVDR (%)
1.97
Estimated free float (%)
31.23
Beta
1.95
URL
www.tpcpower.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 3B (Established)
Anapat Wanuschaiyapruk Analyst, no 57076 [email protected] 66 (0) 2-624‐6289
Uncertain growth prospects…downgrade to Underperform The company views that the domestic renewable energy industry will not see large capacity expansion over the next few years due to the faster‐ than‐expected development of the sector, which is similar to our view. TPCH is now starting to seek growth outside Thailand and we think this might not be easy. All projects on hand are going according to the plan with some delays. We fine‐tune our forecasts to reflect the change in the COD of projects in the pipeline. NP decreases from Bt44mn to Bt37mn in 15E and from Bt308mn to Bt174mn in 16E. We keep our 16E TP unchanged but cut the rating to Underperform due to the unfavorable growth outlook. Softer view on domestic business leads to a hunt for outbound growth TPCH has signed an MOU with a partner in Cambodia to develop a 90MW biomass power plant project. The project will be divided into three phases, 30MW each, and use energy crop for biomass feed, which will be planted on the partnership’s land. Although this provides potential growth, some risk is entailed, such as regulations and the source of funding. Apart from that, the company also has 80MW hydropower projects but they are still under study. Domestic growth is uncertain Domestic growth will come from both M&A and bidding for new projects. The company said that it is doing due diligence on two projects that would add 20MW to its capacity. The projects are under the Adder system, which indicates they will have IRR lower than 16% (CRB’s level). There is also risk of PPA being recalled as the regulator is now trying to clear undeveloped projects. Regarding FiT bidding, ERC has already finished the second round of hearings and we hope the bidding will not be postponed again. However, we expect fierce competition and consequently low project IRR, which provides unattractive upside. Fine‐tune net profit forecasts and downgrade to Underperform The COD of the third power plant will be delayed by two months (expected around the end of Jan’16). The fourth project will start operation in mid‐16E, five months later than we expected. We fine‐tune our net profit forecasts accordingly, but maintain the 16E TP at Bt18.80/share (includes 106MW in the pipeline). However, due to the unfavorable growth outlook, we downgrade TPCH to Underperform. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt)
2014 258 28 0.09 80.0% 0.00 4.87
2015E 303 37 0.09 2.8% 0.01 5.69
2016E 662 174 0.43 369.1% 0.09 6.21
2017E 1,885 535 1.33 207.5% 0.40 7.30
2018E 2,459 688 1.71 28.4% 0.69 8.17
FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 196.7 73.61 3.63 0.0% 2.5% ‐18%
2015E 191.3 58.48 3.11 0.1% 2.1% 1%
2016E 40.77 21.42 2.85 0.5% 9.7% 101%
2017E 13.26 6.65 2.42 2.3% 27.0% 114%
2018E 10.32 5.29 2.17 3.9% 31.1% 87%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: TPCH’s projects in the pipeline
MW 120
COD of PPG and SGP Total capacity 20MW
100
COD of MGP Capacity 9.9MW
80 60
COD of TSG Capacity 9.9MW
COD of MWE Capacity 9.9MW
60
60
30 10
10
38
38
0
7
7
7
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q16
1Q17
83
83
83
83
53
53
53
53
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
30
20 10
106
40
40 20
COD of PTG phase 2 Capacity 23MW
COD of PTG phase 1 Capacity 23MW
16
20
20
27
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
Equity MW
68
2Q18
Consolidated
Source: TPCH, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: Electricity production of CRB (million kWh)
Figure 3: Revenue of CRB (Bt’mn)
Source: TPCH
Source: TPCH
Figure 4: Electricity production of MWE (kWh)
Source: TPCH
Figure 5: TPCH’s installed capacity plan
Source: TPCH
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Gain (loss) from affiliates Extra Items Non‐controlling Net profit Reported EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories Investment PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Accounts payable Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Non‐cash adjustment Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 180 (95) 85 (41) 44 (22) 23 (23) 16 16 (0) 0 0 (6) 10 0.05 10 0.05 0.00
2014 258 (119) 139 (45) 95 (27) 67 (28) 4 43 7 0 0 (21) 28 0.09 28 0.09 0.00
2015E 303 (127) 176 (57) 119 (32) 87 (26) 3 64 0 0 0 (26) 37 0.09 37 0.09 0.01
2016E 662 (267) 395 (70) 325 (74) 251 (87) 0 163 0 50 0 (39) 174 0.43 174 0.43 0.09
2013 279 14 0 0 718 172 1,183 74 20 413 525 311 658 1,183
2014 1,372 55 0 0 1,406 248 3,082 174 24 842 1,134 400 1,948 3,082
2015E 1,808 83 0 92 2,014 248 4,245 119 26 1,720 1,961 401 2,284 4,245
2016E 631 109 0 142 4,649 248 5,780 193 44 2,955 3,288 401 2,492 5,780
2013 24 16 22 (26) 36 (131) (6) (136) 48 381 0 (60) 369 268 (100) (0.36)
2014 50 5 27 (0) 82 (844) (8) (852) 526 1,140 0 197 1,864 1,093 (770) (2.48)
2015E 64 0 32 (25) 71 (732) 0 (732) 824 4 (10) 279 1,097 436 (661) (1.65)
2016E 213 (50) 74 (8) 230 (2,710) 0 (2,710) 1,310 0 (32) 26 1,304 (1,176) (2,480) (6.18)
2013 0.0% ‐580% ‐350% 47.2% 24.5% 12.6% 5.4% 5.4% 1.7%
2014 43.3% 113.8% 80.0% 53.9% 36.6% 26.1% 11.0% 11.0% ‐15.4%
2015E 17.5% 25.9% 2.8% 58.0% 39.2% 28.6% 12.2% 12.2% 0.0%
2016E 118.2% 173.0% 369.1% 59.6% 49.1% 37.9% 26.3% 26.3% 0.0%
2017E 1,885 (765) 1,120 (74) 1,046 (166) 881 (137) 0 743 0 65 0 (272) 535 1.33 535 1.33 0.40
2017E 473 310 0 178 5,784 248 6,992 319 146 3,503 4,063 401 2,929 6,992
2018E 2,459 (1,065) 1,394 (80) 1,315 (218) 1,097 (168) 0 929 0 59 0 (301) 688 1.71 688 1.71 0.69 2018E 561 404 0 194 5,566 248 6,973 542 194 2,865 3,696 401 3,277 6,973
2017E 808 (65) 166 (99) 810 (1,300) 28 (1,272) 673 0 (98) (272) 303 (159) (462) (1.15)
2018E 988 (59) 218 (46) 1,101 0 43 43 (415) 0 (340) (301) (1,056) 88 1,144 2.85
2017E 184.7% 222.1% 207.5% 59.4% 55.5% 46.7% 28.4% 28.4% 0.0%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
2018E 30.5% 25.6% 28.4% 56.7% 53.5% 44.6% 28.0% 28.0% 0.0%
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, KBS, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, CPI . KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, PLE, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY, TFG, EARTH. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of SCI, SR, J, TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
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nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
