TPC Power Holding
TPC Power Holding Sell (15E TP Bt17.25)
Company Update
Close Bt22.80
MAI‐ Resources February 20, 2015
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Result in line, ready for growth
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.290
0.810
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐31%
3.7%
Reuters / Bloomberg
TPCH.BK/TPCH TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
400.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
9.00/280.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/0.00
52 week High / Low (Bt)
27.00/13.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
24,831.00
NVDR (%)
0.02
Estimated free float (%)
45
Beta
2.49
URL
www.tpcpower.co.th
CGR
‐
Looking forward to the first phase of growth The bottom line missed our estimate slightly by Bt1.5mn. Operationally, the CRB power plant is running at high capacity, which creates good prospects for the next projects. However, TPCH is now trading at a very high level due to investor expectations. Our TP is revised to Bt17.25; Sell. Results missed due to underestimated interest expenses TPCH reported net profit of Bt28.5mn vs. our forecast of Bt30mn. Our estimate exceeded the actual result mainly due to underestimating interest expenses by Bt3mn. Overall, there was no major surprise. Six power plants lined up and more aggressive target There are now three power plants under construction. TPCH expects to COD one in 2Q15 and another in 4Q15. The last power plant of this phase will COD in 1Q16. Moreover, TPCH recently signed contracts with TPOLY to construct two power plants that are expected to COD in 2H16. Expects to add another 50MW by 2019 Another five projects with capacity of 10MW each will be added by 2019 and all of them are in the southern provinces. They are still in the early stage of development but we believe that their chances are good. Lower interest rates The 2nd ‐ 4th projects will receive interest rates 25bps less than the first project and the 5th ‐ 7th projects will get a further discount of 25bps. This will have a positive impact to earnings by 1% and WACC by 20bps ‐ 30bps. TP raised by Bt0.55 to Bt17.25 with Sell recommendation The TP revision was made on the adjustment of WACC. However, the new TP is still 24% below the market price, which already reflects the completion of the Pattani project even though it is still in the early stage of development. Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
Revenues (Btmn)
258
427
1,135
1,672
3,360
Net profit (Btmn)
28
80
337
497
1,104
0.09
0.20
0.84
1.24
2.75 122.1%
EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%)
Anapat Wanuschaiyapruk Analyst, no 57076 [email protected] 66 (0) 2-624‐6236
80.0%
122.6%
318.8%
47.6%
Dividend (Bt)
0.00
0.02
0.17
0.37
1.10
BV (Bt)
4.87
5.80
6.71
7.60
9.59
FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
PER (x)
253.3
113.8
27.17
18.41
253.3
EV/EBITDA (x)
76.91
38.48
11.34
7.59
76.91
PBV (x)
4.68
3.93
3.40
3.00
4.68
Dividend yield (%)
0.0%
0.1%
0.7%
1.6%
0.0%
ROE (%)
2.5%
4.6%
17.8%
23.5%
2.5%
Net gearing (%)
‐18%
9%
45%
110%
‐18%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 5
Earnings missed by Bt1.5mn, no major surprise Our revenue forecast was 1.3% higher while our GPM was 1.2% lower. The actual gross profit came out Bt1mn higher than our forecast. We underestimated interest expenses by around Bt3mn, which made our earnings forecast Bt1.5mn higher than the actual result. CRB power plant is running at very high capacity factor of 92% The fist power plant (10MW) is running at an average energy output of 6.2 million units per month or around 74.4 million units per year, about 2% below our estimate. However, a capacity factor of 92% is very high and this has set a good standard for the next projects that are lining up to COD over the next two years. Six projects in pipeline and more aggressive target Projects on hand will be handled at a faster pace. Two power plants will start COD in 2015 and three in 2016. Three projects are already under construction while the other two have just signed construction contracts with TPOLY. The last project is Pattani Green, which is still in the early stage of development and should start operation in 2017. The status of projects is as outlined in Figure 1 below. Figure 1: Projects status
Permission Period
Construction Period
COD
CRB
3Q13 (Already COD)
MWE
2Q15
MGP
4Q15
TSG
1Q16
PGP
3Q16
SGP
4Q16
PTG
2Q17 0%
20%
40%
Source: TPCH, KT ZMICO Research
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
TPCH is also eyeing to add another five projects with total capacity of 50MW focusing on the southern region. The expansion pace has been faster than what management had previously guided. Now TPCH is aiming for 150MW in three years and 200MW in five years, which is two years earlier. Figure 2: Expansion plan
Source: TPCH, KT ZMICO Research
Lower interest rates for new projects CRB has received an interest rate of MLR – 1.25%. However, new projects will have more favorable loan conditions. The three projects under construction (MWE, MGP, and TSG) will REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 5
have interest rates of MLR – 1.5% while the next three projects (PGP, SGP, and PTG) will get a further discount of 25bps, or at MLR – 1.75%. This positively impacts the bottom line by 1% and we reduce projects’ WACC accordingly by 20bps for MWE, MGP, and TSG and by 30bps for PGP, SGP, and PTG. Figure 3: Forecast revision Earnings Earnings to TPCH
2015 New Old 113 112 80 80
Source: TPCH, KT ZMICO Research
% 1% 1%
New 440 337
2016 Old 435 333
% 1% 1%
New 694 497
2017 Old 687 492
2018 New Old 1,633 1,617 1,104 1,093
% 1% 1%
% 1% 1%
New TP at Bt17.25 is still 27% below current market price The current market price is now trading beyond the completion of PTG. We value PTG using a high discount rate at 11.7% (compared to 8.7% – 9% for other projects) to reflect its completion risk as the project still needs EHIA approval and PPA from the regulator. Once there is certainty regarding the permission process, we will raise the 2015E TP further by Bt2 to Bt19.75, which is still 17% below the current market price. The current price is trading at 2015E PER and PEG of 118x and 0.87x, respectively. We expect earnings CAGR of 135% from 2015E – 2018E. Announcements of new projects will serve as a series of short‐term catalysts.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 5
FINANCIAL TABLE
PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Gain (loss) from affiliates Extra Items Non‐controlling Net profit Reported EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories Investment PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Accounts payable Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Non‐cash adjustment Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 180 (95) 85 (41) 44 (22) 23 (23) 16 16 (0) 0 0 (6) 10 0.05 10 0.05 0.00
2014E 258 (119) 139 (45) 95 (27) 67 (28) 4 43 7 0 0 (21) 28 0.09 28 0.09 0.00
2015E 427 (188) 238 (49) 189 (41) 148 (35) 0 113 0 0 0 (32) 80 0.20 80 0.20 0.02
2016E 1,135 (436) 699 (58) 641 (102) 539 (99) 0 440 0 0 0 (104) 337 0.84 337 0.84 0.17
2013 279 14 0 0 718 172 1,183 74 20 413 525 311 658 1,183
2014E 1,372 55 0 0 1,406 248 3,082 174 24 842 1,134 400 1,948 3,082
2015E 1,850 110 0 0 2,327 248 4,535 140 44 1,930 2,209 401 2,326 4,535
2016E 1,219 187 0 0 3,635 248 5,288 224 72 2,205 2,596 401 2,692 5,289
2013 24 16 22 (26) 36 (131) (6) (136) 48 381 0 (60) 369 268 (100) (0.25)
2014E 50 5 27 (0) 82 (844) (8) (852) 526 1,140 0 197 1,864 1,093 (770) (1.93)
2015E 113 0 41 (34) 120 (962) 0 (962) 1,054 4 (11) 273 1,319 478 (842) (2.10)
2016E 440 0 102 (49) 493 (1,410) 0 (1,410) 360 0 (36) (39) 286 (631) (917) (2.29)
2013 0.0% ‐580% ‐350% 47.2% 24.5% 12.6% 5.4% 5.4% 1.7%
2014E 43.3% 113.8% 80.0% 53.9% 36.6% 26.1% 11.0% 11.0% ‐15.4%
2015E 65.2% 99.9% 122.6% 55.8% 44.3% 34.6% 18.8% 18.8% 0.0%
2016E 166.0% 239.4% 318.8% 61.6% 56.5% 47.5% 29.7% 29.7% 0.0%
2017E 1,672 (637) 1,035 (78) 958 (145) 813 (118) 0 694 0 0 0 (197) 497 1.24 497 1.24 0.37
2017E 639 275 0 0 6,090 248 7,251 349 106 3,651 4,201 401 3,050 7,252
2018E 3,360 (1,210) 2,149 (78) 2,071 (243) 1,828 (195) 0 1,633 0 0 0 (530) 1,104 2.75 1,104 2.75 1.10 2018E 1,150 552 0 0 5,846 248 7,796 553 202 3,097 3,947 401 3,849 7,796
2017E 694 0 145 (54) 785 (2,600) 0 (2,600) 1,570 0 (138) (197) 1,235 (580) (1,815) (4.52)
2018E 1,633 0 243 (182) 1,695 0 0 0 (349) 0 (305) (530) (1,184) 511 1,695 4.22
2017E 47.3% 49.3% 47.6% 61.9% 57.3% 48.6% 29.7% 29.7% 0.0%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 5
2018E 100.9% 116.3% 122.1% 64.0% 61.6% 54.4% 32.8% 32.8% 0.0%
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 5
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Company Update
Close Bt22.80
MAI‐ Resources February 20, 2015
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Result in line, ready for growth
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.290
0.810
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐31%
3.7%
Reuters / Bloomberg
TPCH.BK/TPCH TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
400.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
9.00/280.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/0.00
52 week High / Low (Bt)
27.00/13.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
24,831.00
NVDR (%)
0.02
Estimated free float (%)
45
Beta
2.49
URL
www.tpcpower.co.th
CGR
‐
Looking forward to the first phase of growth The bottom line missed our estimate slightly by Bt1.5mn. Operationally, the CRB power plant is running at high capacity, which creates good prospects for the next projects. However, TPCH is now trading at a very high level due to investor expectations. Our TP is revised to Bt17.25; Sell. Results missed due to underestimated interest expenses TPCH reported net profit of Bt28.5mn vs. our forecast of Bt30mn. Our estimate exceeded the actual result mainly due to underestimating interest expenses by Bt3mn. Overall, there was no major surprise. Six power plants lined up and more aggressive target There are now three power plants under construction. TPCH expects to COD one in 2Q15 and another in 4Q15. The last power plant of this phase will COD in 1Q16. Moreover, TPCH recently signed contracts with TPOLY to construct two power plants that are expected to COD in 2H16. Expects to add another 50MW by 2019 Another five projects with capacity of 10MW each will be added by 2019 and all of them are in the southern provinces. They are still in the early stage of development but we believe that their chances are good. Lower interest rates The 2nd ‐ 4th projects will receive interest rates 25bps less than the first project and the 5th ‐ 7th projects will get a further discount of 25bps. This will have a positive impact to earnings by 1% and WACC by 20bps ‐ 30bps. TP raised by Bt0.55 to Bt17.25 with Sell recommendation The TP revision was made on the adjustment of WACC. However, the new TP is still 24% below the market price, which already reflects the completion of the Pattani project even though it is still in the early stage of development. Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
Revenues (Btmn)
258
427
1,135
1,672
3,360
Net profit (Btmn)
28
80
337
497
1,104
0.09
0.20
0.84
1.24
2.75 122.1%
EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%)
Anapat Wanuschaiyapruk Analyst, no 57076 [email protected] 66 (0) 2-624‐6236
80.0%
122.6%
318.8%
47.6%
Dividend (Bt)
0.00
0.02
0.17
0.37
1.10
BV (Bt)
4.87
5.80
6.71
7.60
9.59
FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
PER (x)
253.3
113.8
27.17
18.41
253.3
EV/EBITDA (x)
76.91
38.48
11.34
7.59
76.91
PBV (x)
4.68
3.93
3.40
3.00
4.68
Dividend yield (%)
0.0%
0.1%
0.7%
1.6%
0.0%
ROE (%)
2.5%
4.6%
17.8%
23.5%
2.5%
Net gearing (%)
‐18%
9%
45%
110%
‐18%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 5
Earnings missed by Bt1.5mn, no major surprise Our revenue forecast was 1.3% higher while our GPM was 1.2% lower. The actual gross profit came out Bt1mn higher than our forecast. We underestimated interest expenses by around Bt3mn, which made our earnings forecast Bt1.5mn higher than the actual result. CRB power plant is running at very high capacity factor of 92% The fist power plant (10MW) is running at an average energy output of 6.2 million units per month or around 74.4 million units per year, about 2% below our estimate. However, a capacity factor of 92% is very high and this has set a good standard for the next projects that are lining up to COD over the next two years. Six projects in pipeline and more aggressive target Projects on hand will be handled at a faster pace. Two power plants will start COD in 2015 and three in 2016. Three projects are already under construction while the other two have just signed construction contracts with TPOLY. The last project is Pattani Green, which is still in the early stage of development and should start operation in 2017. The status of projects is as outlined in Figure 1 below. Figure 1: Projects status
Permission Period
Construction Period
COD
CRB
3Q13 (Already COD)
MWE
2Q15
MGP
4Q15
TSG
1Q16
PGP
3Q16
SGP
4Q16
PTG
2Q17 0%
20%
40%
Source: TPCH, KT ZMICO Research
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
TPCH is also eyeing to add another five projects with total capacity of 50MW focusing on the southern region. The expansion pace has been faster than what management had previously guided. Now TPCH is aiming for 150MW in three years and 200MW in five years, which is two years earlier. Figure 2: Expansion plan
Source: TPCH, KT ZMICO Research
Lower interest rates for new projects CRB has received an interest rate of MLR – 1.25%. However, new projects will have more favorable loan conditions. The three projects under construction (MWE, MGP, and TSG) will REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 5
have interest rates of MLR – 1.5% while the next three projects (PGP, SGP, and PTG) will get a further discount of 25bps, or at MLR – 1.75%. This positively impacts the bottom line by 1% and we reduce projects’ WACC accordingly by 20bps for MWE, MGP, and TSG and by 30bps for PGP, SGP, and PTG. Figure 3: Forecast revision Earnings Earnings to TPCH
2015 New Old 113 112 80 80
Source: TPCH, KT ZMICO Research
% 1% 1%
New 440 337
2016 Old 435 333
% 1% 1%
New 694 497
2017 Old 687 492
2018 New Old 1,633 1,617 1,104 1,093
% 1% 1%
% 1% 1%
New TP at Bt17.25 is still 27% below current market price The current market price is now trading beyond the completion of PTG. We value PTG using a high discount rate at 11.7% (compared to 8.7% – 9% for other projects) to reflect its completion risk as the project still needs EHIA approval and PPA from the regulator. Once there is certainty regarding the permission process, we will raise the 2015E TP further by Bt2 to Bt19.75, which is still 17% below the current market price. The current price is trading at 2015E PER and PEG of 118x and 0.87x, respectively. We expect earnings CAGR of 135% from 2015E – 2018E. Announcements of new projects will serve as a series of short‐term catalysts.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 5
FINANCIAL TABLE
PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Gain (loss) from affiliates Extra Items Non‐controlling Net profit Reported EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories Investment PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Accounts payable Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Non‐cash adjustment Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 180 (95) 85 (41) 44 (22) 23 (23) 16 16 (0) 0 0 (6) 10 0.05 10 0.05 0.00
2014E 258 (119) 139 (45) 95 (27) 67 (28) 4 43 7 0 0 (21) 28 0.09 28 0.09 0.00
2015E 427 (188) 238 (49) 189 (41) 148 (35) 0 113 0 0 0 (32) 80 0.20 80 0.20 0.02
2016E 1,135 (436) 699 (58) 641 (102) 539 (99) 0 440 0 0 0 (104) 337 0.84 337 0.84 0.17
2013 279 14 0 0 718 172 1,183 74 20 413 525 311 658 1,183
2014E 1,372 55 0 0 1,406 248 3,082 174 24 842 1,134 400 1,948 3,082
2015E 1,850 110 0 0 2,327 248 4,535 140 44 1,930 2,209 401 2,326 4,535
2016E 1,219 187 0 0 3,635 248 5,288 224 72 2,205 2,596 401 2,692 5,289
2013 24 16 22 (26) 36 (131) (6) (136) 48 381 0 (60) 369 268 (100) (0.25)
2014E 50 5 27 (0) 82 (844) (8) (852) 526 1,140 0 197 1,864 1,093 (770) (1.93)
2015E 113 0 41 (34) 120 (962) 0 (962) 1,054 4 (11) 273 1,319 478 (842) (2.10)
2016E 440 0 102 (49) 493 (1,410) 0 (1,410) 360 0 (36) (39) 286 (631) (917) (2.29)
2013 0.0% ‐580% ‐350% 47.2% 24.5% 12.6% 5.4% 5.4% 1.7%
2014E 43.3% 113.8% 80.0% 53.9% 36.6% 26.1% 11.0% 11.0% ‐15.4%
2015E 65.2% 99.9% 122.6% 55.8% 44.3% 34.6% 18.8% 18.8% 0.0%
2016E 166.0% 239.4% 318.8% 61.6% 56.5% 47.5% 29.7% 29.7% 0.0%
2017E 1,672 (637) 1,035 (78) 958 (145) 813 (118) 0 694 0 0 0 (197) 497 1.24 497 1.24 0.37
2017E 639 275 0 0 6,090 248 7,251 349 106 3,651 4,201 401 3,050 7,252
2018E 3,360 (1,210) 2,149 (78) 2,071 (243) 1,828 (195) 0 1,633 0 0 0 (530) 1,104 2.75 1,104 2.75 1.10 2018E 1,150 552 0 0 5,846 248 7,796 553 202 3,097 3,947 401 3,849 7,796
2017E 694 0 145 (54) 785 (2,600) 0 (2,600) 1,570 0 (138) (197) 1,235 (580) (1,815) (4.52)
2018E 1,633 0 243 (182) 1,695 0 0 0 (349) 0 (305) (530) (1,184) 511 1,695 4.22
2017E 47.3% 49.3% 47.6% 61.9% 57.3% 48.6% 29.7% 29.7% 0.0%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 5
2018E 100.9% 116.3% 122.1% 64.0% 61.6% 54.4% 32.8% 32.8% 0.0%
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 5
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
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nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
