Ananda Development - Global Alliance Partners
Ananda Development Outperform (17E TP Bt5.50)
Company Update
Close Bt4.82
Property Development November 25, 2016
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Continuing to grow next year Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.429
0.571
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐4.4%
‐3.7%
Reuters / Bloomberg
ANAN.BK/ANAN TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
3,333.00
Par (Bt)
0.10
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m) Foreign limit / actual (%)
16.00/451.00 49.00/8.85
52 week High / Low (Bt)
5.40/3.16
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
17,038.00
NVDR (%) Estimated free float (%)
3.19 44.52
Beta
1.31
URL
www.ananda.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Worarat Powpaka Analyst, no. 17992 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6248
Maintain Outperform We maintain ANAN’s 2017E TP at Bt5.5 and our Outperform rating. We still like ANAN as our top pick on projected earnings growth of 13.3% in 2016E and 33.4% in 2017E, driven by potential realization of significant contributions from its condos and joint venture condos, which will start to generate positive shared income in 2017E. ANAN raised 2016E presales target by 5% Although ANAN postponed three project launches worth Bt2.5bn to 1Q17E from 4Q16E, the company raised the 2016E presales target by 5% to Bt22bn along with its actual 10M16 presales, which were Bt21.2bn, increasing 4.8% YoY and securing 94.5% of its new 2016E target. The first month take‐up rate of the new 9M16 condo launches of the two “Unio” brands (price starting at Bt1mn) were 40% (2015: 26%), while the “Ideo” and “Venio” brands (mid‐to‐ high segments, located close to mass transit stations) were 55% (2015: 43%). Meanwhile, ANAN launched three new projects in Oct‐16, all of which were JV condos, namely, Ideo Sukhumvit 93 (Bt6.2bn, 60% sold), Ideo Mobi Sukhumvit 66 (Bt2.4bn, 30% sold) and Ideo Phaholyothin‐Chatuchak (Bt2.5bn, 30% sold). The take‐up rates of the last two projects are low, as they have had soft sales during the mourning period. ANAN has one or two more years (depending on the completion schedule) to sell the projects before they are ready to be transferred. ANAN’S 2017E presales target to rise 35% YoY ANAN plans to launch 17 projects with a total value of Bt36bn (+74% YoY) in 2017E from eight projects worth Bt20.7bn in 2016E. They comprise 10 condo projects (including seven JV condos) worth Bt28.8bn and seven housing projects worth Bt7.1bn. ANAN targets 2017E presales at Bt29.8bn (+35% YoY). We estimate that around 43% of the presales value will be from new launches and the rest will be from current unsold projects worth Bt26.8bn as of 3Q16. Maintain 2016‐17E net profit growth of 13.3% and 33.4%, respectively ANAN’s 9M16 net profit was 44% of our 2016E net profit at Bt1.37bn (+13.3% YoY), which we maintain as net profit should peak in 4Q16E from the continuing transfers of condo backlog of Bt2.16bn from ANAN and Bt2.2bn from JVs. In addition, 2017E net profit will grow by 33.4% YoY as ANAN and the JV company have 10 newly completed condos (Bt27bn, 64% sold) to be transferred in the period. To invest in a mixed‐used project to generate recurring income ANAN is investing in a 30‐year land lease site located on Ratchadapisek road with a value of Bt2.08bn. The company is studying the project concept, which will be mixed‐used real estate including retail, residential or a hotel with gross floor area of 50,000 sq.m. The construction will begin in 2017E and the official operating period will be 1Q20. ANAN expects the new projects to generate more recurring income in the future. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Core EPS (Bt) Core EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt)
2013 9,173 812 0.24 N.M. 0.24 N.M. 0.05 1.76
2014 10,328 1,301 0.39 60.3 0.36 46.8 0.10 2.07
2015 10,740 1,207 0.36 (7.3) 0.36 1.3 0.10 2.62
2016E 11,706 1,367 0.41 13.3 0.41 13.3 0.11 3.19
2017E 12,677 1,823 0.55 33.4 0.55 33.4 0.14 3.56
FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) Normalized PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2013 19.8 19.8 13.1 2.7 1.0 14.8 36.5
2014 12.3 13.5 10.4 2.3 2.0 20.3 74.8
2015 13.3 13.3 9.8 1.8 2.1 15.4 70.6
2016E 11.7 11.7 11.5 1.5 2.3 14.1 76.5
2017E 8.8 8.8 10.0 1.4 2.8 16.2 57.6
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: Quarterly earnings review
FY Ended 31 Dec
3Q15
2Q16
3Q16
% YoY
% QoQ
9M16
% YoY
2016E
% YoY
Revenue from Project sales Total revenue Gross profit
2,251 2,601 994
2,528 2,835 996
2,358 2,835 979
4.8 9.0 (1.5)
(6.7) 0.0 (1.7)
7,065 8,199 2,908
51.9 52.0 34.6
10,179 11,706 4,181
6.1 9.0 0.5
YTD (% 2016E) 69.4 70.0 69.6
EBITDA
448
440
524
16.9
18.9
1,329
44.4
2,103
(7.5)
63.2
Interest expense
(54)
(75)
(98)
79.6
30.0
(241)
29.8
(337)
32.8
71.7
Profit and Loss (Btmn)
Other income
48
14
99
106.3
589.2
152
(0.7)
234
11.2
64.8
Income tax
(80)
(85)
(90)
12
5.2
(222)
128.5
(365)
7.0
60.9
Gn (Ls) from affiliates
(152)
(91)
(105)
(30.9)
15.2
(304)
(8.6)
(91)
(81)
333.4
Net profit (loss)
161
210
250
55.0
18.9
608
98.3
1,367
13.3
44.5
Core net profit (loss)
161
210
250
55.0
18.9
608
98.3
1,367
13.3
44.5
Reported EPS (THB)
0.05
0.05
0.07
55.0
36.7
0.17
83.6
0.41
13.3
41.2
Core EPS (THB)
0.05
0.05
0.07
55.0
36.7
0.17
83.6
0.41
13.3
41.2
Gross margin‐ Project sales (%)
36.9
34.8
34.7
35.3
35.5
Gross margin ‐ overall (%)
38.2
35.1
34.5
35.5
35.7
EBITDA margin (%)
17.2
15.5
18.5
16.2
18.0
Net margin (%)
6.2
7.4
8.8
7.4
11.7
Current ratio (x)
3.9
1.7
1.6
1.6
2.1
Interest coverage (x)
7.9
5.6
5.1
5.2
5.9
Debt / equity (x)
1.7
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.5
2.97
3.19
10.6
14.1
BVPS (Bt)
2.35
2.94
2.97
ROE (%)
13.0
10.8
10.6
Source: ANAN, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: Presales
Figure 3: Distribution of backlog as of (30 Sep 16)
Btmn
Btmn
10M16
4Q16
3Q16
2Q16
1Q16
4Q15
3Q15
Condo
10M15
Low rise
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 ‐
10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2016 CD‐Anan
Source: ANAN, KT ZMICO Research
2017 CD Anan's Backlog in JV
Source: ANAN, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
2018 Housing‐Anan
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 9,173 (5,741) 3,432 (2,136) 1,391 186 1,205 (112) 149 1,024 (213) 0 0 (94) 812 0.24 0.24 812 0.24 0.05
2014 10,328 (6,402) 3,927 (2,059) 2,037 62 1,974 (227) 114 1,596 (294) 0 110 (293) 1,301 0.39 0.39 1,192 0.36 0.10
2015 10,740 (6,582) 4,159 (2,166) 2,273 70 2,203 (254) 211 1,547 (341) 0 0 (477) 1,207 0.36 0.36 1,207 0.36 0.10
2016E 11,706 (7,525) 4,181 (2,413) 2,103 101 2,002 (337) 234 1,732 (365) 0 0 (91) 1,367 0.41 0.41 1,367 0.41 0.11
2017E 12,677 (8,130) 4,548 (2,573) 2,288 104 2,185 (323) 210 2,216 (392) 0 0 254 1,823 0.55 0.55 1,823 0.55 0.14
2013 2,309 351 1 660 8,541 12,482 2,904 1,552 6,603 333 5,879 12,482
2014 2,477 28 10 664 11,730 17,088 1,012 6,636 10,175 333 6,913 17,088
2015 2,573 142 7 778 13,420 20,471 2,712 6,023 11,743 333 8,727 20,471
2016E 4,526 117 8 1,204 13,855 26,455 5,750 6,910 15,826 333 10,629 26,455
2017E 2,325 127 8 1,168 14,289 24,511 2,691 6,475 12,629 333 11,882 24,511
2013 812 5,856 186 (7,392) (538) (1,070) 121 (949) 1,960 0 0 (223) 1,737 250 (1,627) (0.49)
2014 1,301 6,889 62 (9,691) (1,439) (1,080) (573) (1,652) 3,880 0 (267) (354) 3,260 168 (2,968) (0.89)
2015 1,207 7,317 70 (7,452) 1,142 (1,837) (360) (2,197) 1,993 0 (351) (500) 1,142 86 (1,343) (0.40)
2016E 1,367 7,773 101 (27) 9,214 (1,739) (1,903) (3,642) (50) 0 (360) (3,210) (3,620) 1,952 7,479 2.24
2017E 1,823 8,431 104 1,221 11,579 (1,860) 389 (1,472) (895) 0 (395) (11,017) (12,307) (2,200) 9,233 2.77
2013 79.8 186.2 n.m. 37.4 15.2 13.1 8.8 8.8 20.8
2014 12.6 46.4 60.3 38.0 19.7 19.1 12.6 11.5 18.5
2015 4.0 11.6 (7.3) 38.7 21.2 20.5 11.2 11.2 22.0
2016E 9.0 (7.5) 13.3 35.7 18.0 17.1 11.7 11.7 20.0
2017E 8.3 8.8 33.4 35.9 18.1 17.2 14.4 14.4 20.0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, M‐CHAI, TFD, CI, NUSA, TFG.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068
Company Update
Close Bt4.82
Property Development November 25, 2016
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Continuing to grow next year Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.429
0.571
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐4.4%
‐3.7%
Reuters / Bloomberg
ANAN.BK/ANAN TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
3,333.00
Par (Bt)
0.10
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m) Foreign limit / actual (%)
16.00/451.00 49.00/8.85
52 week High / Low (Bt)
5.40/3.16
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
17,038.00
NVDR (%) Estimated free float (%)
3.19 44.52
Beta
1.31
URL
www.ananda.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Worarat Powpaka Analyst, no. 17992 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6248
Maintain Outperform We maintain ANAN’s 2017E TP at Bt5.5 and our Outperform rating. We still like ANAN as our top pick on projected earnings growth of 13.3% in 2016E and 33.4% in 2017E, driven by potential realization of significant contributions from its condos and joint venture condos, which will start to generate positive shared income in 2017E. ANAN raised 2016E presales target by 5% Although ANAN postponed three project launches worth Bt2.5bn to 1Q17E from 4Q16E, the company raised the 2016E presales target by 5% to Bt22bn along with its actual 10M16 presales, which were Bt21.2bn, increasing 4.8% YoY and securing 94.5% of its new 2016E target. The first month take‐up rate of the new 9M16 condo launches of the two “Unio” brands (price starting at Bt1mn) were 40% (2015: 26%), while the “Ideo” and “Venio” brands (mid‐to‐ high segments, located close to mass transit stations) were 55% (2015: 43%). Meanwhile, ANAN launched three new projects in Oct‐16, all of which were JV condos, namely, Ideo Sukhumvit 93 (Bt6.2bn, 60% sold), Ideo Mobi Sukhumvit 66 (Bt2.4bn, 30% sold) and Ideo Phaholyothin‐Chatuchak (Bt2.5bn, 30% sold). The take‐up rates of the last two projects are low, as they have had soft sales during the mourning period. ANAN has one or two more years (depending on the completion schedule) to sell the projects before they are ready to be transferred. ANAN’S 2017E presales target to rise 35% YoY ANAN plans to launch 17 projects with a total value of Bt36bn (+74% YoY) in 2017E from eight projects worth Bt20.7bn in 2016E. They comprise 10 condo projects (including seven JV condos) worth Bt28.8bn and seven housing projects worth Bt7.1bn. ANAN targets 2017E presales at Bt29.8bn (+35% YoY). We estimate that around 43% of the presales value will be from new launches and the rest will be from current unsold projects worth Bt26.8bn as of 3Q16. Maintain 2016‐17E net profit growth of 13.3% and 33.4%, respectively ANAN’s 9M16 net profit was 44% of our 2016E net profit at Bt1.37bn (+13.3% YoY), which we maintain as net profit should peak in 4Q16E from the continuing transfers of condo backlog of Bt2.16bn from ANAN and Bt2.2bn from JVs. In addition, 2017E net profit will grow by 33.4% YoY as ANAN and the JV company have 10 newly completed condos (Bt27bn, 64% sold) to be transferred in the period. To invest in a mixed‐used project to generate recurring income ANAN is investing in a 30‐year land lease site located on Ratchadapisek road with a value of Bt2.08bn. The company is studying the project concept, which will be mixed‐used real estate including retail, residential or a hotel with gross floor area of 50,000 sq.m. The construction will begin in 2017E and the official operating period will be 1Q20. ANAN expects the new projects to generate more recurring income in the future. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Core EPS (Bt) Core EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt)
2013 9,173 812 0.24 N.M. 0.24 N.M. 0.05 1.76
2014 10,328 1,301 0.39 60.3 0.36 46.8 0.10 2.07
2015 10,740 1,207 0.36 (7.3) 0.36 1.3 0.10 2.62
2016E 11,706 1,367 0.41 13.3 0.41 13.3 0.11 3.19
2017E 12,677 1,823 0.55 33.4 0.55 33.4 0.14 3.56
FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) Normalized PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2013 19.8 19.8 13.1 2.7 1.0 14.8 36.5
2014 12.3 13.5 10.4 2.3 2.0 20.3 74.8
2015 13.3 13.3 9.8 1.8 2.1 15.4 70.6
2016E 11.7 11.7 11.5 1.5 2.3 14.1 76.5
2017E 8.8 8.8 10.0 1.4 2.8 16.2 57.6
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: Quarterly earnings review
FY Ended 31 Dec
3Q15
2Q16
3Q16
% YoY
% QoQ
9M16
% YoY
2016E
% YoY
Revenue from Project sales Total revenue Gross profit
2,251 2,601 994
2,528 2,835 996
2,358 2,835 979
4.8 9.0 (1.5)
(6.7) 0.0 (1.7)
7,065 8,199 2,908
51.9 52.0 34.6
10,179 11,706 4,181
6.1 9.0 0.5
YTD (% 2016E) 69.4 70.0 69.6
EBITDA
448
440
524
16.9
18.9
1,329
44.4
2,103
(7.5)
63.2
Interest expense
(54)
(75)
(98)
79.6
30.0
(241)
29.8
(337)
32.8
71.7
Profit and Loss (Btmn)
Other income
48
14
99
106.3
589.2
152
(0.7)
234
11.2
64.8
Income tax
(80)
(85)
(90)
12
5.2
(222)
128.5
(365)
7.0
60.9
Gn (Ls) from affiliates
(152)
(91)
(105)
(30.9)
15.2
(304)
(8.6)
(91)
(81)
333.4
Net profit (loss)
161
210
250
55.0
18.9
608
98.3
1,367
13.3
44.5
Core net profit (loss)
161
210
250
55.0
18.9
608
98.3
1,367
13.3
44.5
Reported EPS (THB)
0.05
0.05
0.07
55.0
36.7
0.17
83.6
0.41
13.3
41.2
Core EPS (THB)
0.05
0.05
0.07
55.0
36.7
0.17
83.6
0.41
13.3
41.2
Gross margin‐ Project sales (%)
36.9
34.8
34.7
35.3
35.5
Gross margin ‐ overall (%)
38.2
35.1
34.5
35.5
35.7
EBITDA margin (%)
17.2
15.5
18.5
16.2
18.0
Net margin (%)
6.2
7.4
8.8
7.4
11.7
Current ratio (x)
3.9
1.7
1.6
1.6
2.1
Interest coverage (x)
7.9
5.6
5.1
5.2
5.9
Debt / equity (x)
1.7
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.5
2.97
3.19
10.6
14.1
BVPS (Bt)
2.35
2.94
2.97
ROE (%)
13.0
10.8
10.6
Source: ANAN, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: Presales
Figure 3: Distribution of backlog as of (30 Sep 16)
Btmn
Btmn
10M16
4Q16
3Q16
2Q16
1Q16
4Q15
3Q15
Condo
10M15
Low rise
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 ‐
10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2016 CD‐Anan
Source: ANAN, KT ZMICO Research
2017 CD Anan's Backlog in JV
Source: ANAN, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
2018 Housing‐Anan
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 9,173 (5,741) 3,432 (2,136) 1,391 186 1,205 (112) 149 1,024 (213) 0 0 (94) 812 0.24 0.24 812 0.24 0.05
2014 10,328 (6,402) 3,927 (2,059) 2,037 62 1,974 (227) 114 1,596 (294) 0 110 (293) 1,301 0.39 0.39 1,192 0.36 0.10
2015 10,740 (6,582) 4,159 (2,166) 2,273 70 2,203 (254) 211 1,547 (341) 0 0 (477) 1,207 0.36 0.36 1,207 0.36 0.10
2016E 11,706 (7,525) 4,181 (2,413) 2,103 101 2,002 (337) 234 1,732 (365) 0 0 (91) 1,367 0.41 0.41 1,367 0.41 0.11
2017E 12,677 (8,130) 4,548 (2,573) 2,288 104 2,185 (323) 210 2,216 (392) 0 0 254 1,823 0.55 0.55 1,823 0.55 0.14
2013 2,309 351 1 660 8,541 12,482 2,904 1,552 6,603 333 5,879 12,482
2014 2,477 28 10 664 11,730 17,088 1,012 6,636 10,175 333 6,913 17,088
2015 2,573 142 7 778 13,420 20,471 2,712 6,023 11,743 333 8,727 20,471
2016E 4,526 117 8 1,204 13,855 26,455 5,750 6,910 15,826 333 10,629 26,455
2017E 2,325 127 8 1,168 14,289 24,511 2,691 6,475 12,629 333 11,882 24,511
2013 812 5,856 186 (7,392) (538) (1,070) 121 (949) 1,960 0 0 (223) 1,737 250 (1,627) (0.49)
2014 1,301 6,889 62 (9,691) (1,439) (1,080) (573) (1,652) 3,880 0 (267) (354) 3,260 168 (2,968) (0.89)
2015 1,207 7,317 70 (7,452) 1,142 (1,837) (360) (2,197) 1,993 0 (351) (500) 1,142 86 (1,343) (0.40)
2016E 1,367 7,773 101 (27) 9,214 (1,739) (1,903) (3,642) (50) 0 (360) (3,210) (3,620) 1,952 7,479 2.24
2017E 1,823 8,431 104 1,221 11,579 (1,860) 389 (1,472) (895) 0 (395) (11,017) (12,307) (2,200) 9,233 2.77
2013 79.8 186.2 n.m. 37.4 15.2 13.1 8.8 8.8 20.8
2014 12.6 46.4 60.3 38.0 19.7 19.1 12.6 11.5 18.5
2015 4.0 11.6 (7.3) 38.7 21.2 20.5 11.2 11.2 22.0
2016E 9.0 (7.5) 13.3 35.7 18.0 17.1 11.7 11.7 20.0
2017E 8.3 8.8 33.4 35.9 18.1 17.2 14.4 14.4 20.0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, M‐CHAI, TFD, CI, NUSA, TFG.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068
