Demand Summary
USDA Grain Supply/Demand Summary Matt Zeller • [email protected] July 10, 2015
July-15 U.S. Corn Supply/Demand (mb) July July June USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 95.4 90.6 89.2 Harvested 87.5 83.1 81.7 Yield 158.1 171.0 166.8
July USDA 15/16 88.9 81.1 166.8
Carryin Production Imports Supply
821 13829 36 14686
1232 14216 27 15474
1876 13630 25 15531
1779 13530 25 15334
Feed Exports Ethanol Other Ind Demand
5036 1917 5134 1367 13454
5300 1850 5200 1346 13696
5300 1900 5200 1360 13760
Carryout CO/Use
1232 0.092
1779 0.130
Price range
$4.46
$3.60 $3.80 $0.00
World Corn Supply/Demand (mmt) July July June July USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
137.18 990.69
174.73 1001.74
197.01 989.30
193.95 987.11
1127.87
1176.47
1186.31
1181.06
5275 1875 5225 1360 13735
573.82
597.52
610.32
609.46
953.14
982.51
991.12
991.10
1771 0.129
1599 0.116
174.73 0.183
193.95 0.197
195.19 0.197
189.95 0.192
$3.20 $3.80
$3.45 $4.05
U.S. Soybean Supply/Demand (mb) July July June USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 76.8 83.7 84.6 Harvested 76.3 83.1 83.7 Yield 44.0 47.8 46.0
July USDA 15/16 85.1 84.4 46.0
BRZ Prod: 14/15 ARG Prod: 14/15
82.0; +1.0 25.0; unch
World Soybean Supply/Demand (mmt) July July June July USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
Carryin Production Imports Supply
141 3358 72 3570
92 3969 30 4091
330 3850 30 4210
255 3885 30 4170
56.35 283.24
62.73 318.60
83.70 317.58
81.68 318.92
339.59
381.33
401.28
400.60
Crush Exports Seed Residual Demand
1734 1647 97 0 3478
1830 1825 99 82 3836
1830 1775 92 38 3735
1840 1775 92 38 3745
241.26
257.50
267.79
268.08
275.25
296.07
305.64
306.23
Carryout CO/Use
92 0.026
255 0.066
475 0.127
425 0.113
62.73 0.228
81.68 0.276
93.22 0.305
91.80 0.300
Price range
$13.00
$10.05
$8.25 $9.75
$8.50 $10.00
Brazil Prod: 14/15 Argentina Prod: 14/15
94.5; unch 60.0; +0.5
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. The FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc.
FCStone Market Intelligence Grain SD Report.xls
2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 100 West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.intlfcstone.com 1-800-422-3087
USDA Grain Supply/Demand Summary Matt Zeller • [email protected]
July 10, 2015
July-15 U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand (mb) July July June USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 56.2 56.8 55.4 Harvested 45.3 46.4 48.0 Yield 47.1 43.7 44.2
July USDA 15/16 56.1 48.5 44.3
Carryin Production Imports Supply
718 2135 169 3021
590 2026 144 2760
712 2121 140 2973
753 2148 130 3031
Food Exports Seed Feed/Res Demand
952 1176 77 226 2431
960 855 81 111 2007
967 925 72 195 2159
Carryout CO/Use
590 0.243
753 0.375
Price range
$6.87
$5.99
World Wheat Supply/Demand (mmt) July July June July USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
177.12 715.11
193.52 725.92
200.41 721.55
212.06 721.96
892.23
919.44
921.96
934.02
967 950 72 200 2189
698.72
707.38
719.56
714.20
814 0.377
842 0.385
193.52 0.277
212.06 0.300
202.40 0.281
219.81 0.308
$4.40 $5.40
$4.75 $5.75
AUS Prod: 15/16 CAN Prod: 15/16
26.0; unch 27.5; -1.5
Summary: USDA punting on both yield and acreage right now Corn: old-crop usage soars after June 30th stocks report, with feed up 50 million bushels, and exports and ethanol usage categories gain 25 mbu each. Overall old-crop carryout drops by 97 mbu. Government leaves yields unchanged this month, with production down 100 mbu after incorporating June acreage decline. However, 25 mbu cuts in feed and export usage take out a 25 mbu gain in '15/16 ethanol demand to leave overall corn carryout down 172 mbu to 1599 mbu, still well above average trade guess. World carryout for 2014/15 loses 3 MMT on reduced old-crop production; overall carryout for '15/16 is down 5.2 MMT, with new crops in both U.S. and E.U. down around 2 MMT. Brazil output up 2 MMT in '15/16, however.
Beans: old-crop crush and exports rise once again this month, up 15 mbu each this time, with "residual" usage for the 2014 crop up 44 mbu, or about half a bushel per acre yield miss. Overall old-crop carryout down a sharp 75 mbu to just 255 mbu, over 30 mbu below the trade's expectation. New-crop production up 35 mbu on the June 30 acreage increase, despite yields being left unchanged this month. New-crop crush gains 10 mbu this month. All this leaves overall '15/16 stocks down 50 mbu, still at 425 mbu. World '14/15 carryout loses 2 MMT but U.S. production increase is factored in to '15/16 table - overall global stocks down 1.4 MMT then.
Wheat: old-crop feed and residual usage loses 49 mbu this month, translating to a 41 mbu stocks gain following the 6/30 report. New-crop acreage and yield up slightly, resulting in a 27 mbu production increase which matched the trade estimate. '15/16 imports down 10 mbu, with exports up 25 mbu and feed/residual up 5 mbu. Overall newcrop carryout rises 28 mbu, still nearly 20 mbu below expectations though. World balance tables thrown into chaos by Chinese demand cuts throughout - overall global stocks up a whopping 17.4 million tonnes this month.
Results: trade not buying these yield numbers, waiting for possible acreage changes next month too. Soybean stocks just continue to tighten...
FCStone Market Intelligence Grain SD Report.xls
2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 100 West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.intlfcstone.com 1-800-422-3087
July-15 U.S. Corn Supply/Demand (mb) July July June USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 95.4 90.6 89.2 Harvested 87.5 83.1 81.7 Yield 158.1 171.0 166.8
July USDA 15/16 88.9 81.1 166.8
Carryin Production Imports Supply
821 13829 36 14686
1232 14216 27 15474
1876 13630 25 15531
1779 13530 25 15334
Feed Exports Ethanol Other Ind Demand
5036 1917 5134 1367 13454
5300 1850 5200 1346 13696
5300 1900 5200 1360 13760
Carryout CO/Use
1232 0.092
1779 0.130
Price range
$4.46
$3.60 $3.80 $0.00
World Corn Supply/Demand (mmt) July July June July USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
137.18 990.69
174.73 1001.74
197.01 989.30
193.95 987.11
1127.87
1176.47
1186.31
1181.06
5275 1875 5225 1360 13735
573.82
597.52
610.32
609.46
953.14
982.51
991.12
991.10
1771 0.129
1599 0.116
174.73 0.183
193.95 0.197
195.19 0.197
189.95 0.192
$3.20 $3.80
$3.45 $4.05
U.S. Soybean Supply/Demand (mb) July July June USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 76.8 83.7 84.6 Harvested 76.3 83.1 83.7 Yield 44.0 47.8 46.0
July USDA 15/16 85.1 84.4 46.0
BRZ Prod: 14/15 ARG Prod: 14/15
82.0; +1.0 25.0; unch
World Soybean Supply/Demand (mmt) July July June July USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
Carryin Production Imports Supply
141 3358 72 3570
92 3969 30 4091
330 3850 30 4210
255 3885 30 4170
56.35 283.24
62.73 318.60
83.70 317.58
81.68 318.92
339.59
381.33
401.28
400.60
Crush Exports Seed Residual Demand
1734 1647 97 0 3478
1830 1825 99 82 3836
1830 1775 92 38 3735
1840 1775 92 38 3745
241.26
257.50
267.79
268.08
275.25
296.07
305.64
306.23
Carryout CO/Use
92 0.026
255 0.066
475 0.127
425 0.113
62.73 0.228
81.68 0.276
93.22 0.305
91.80 0.300
Price range
$13.00
$10.05
$8.25 $9.75
$8.50 $10.00
Brazil Prod: 14/15 Argentina Prod: 14/15
94.5; unch 60.0; +0.5
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. The FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc.
FCStone Market Intelligence Grain SD Report.xls
2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 100 West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.intlfcstone.com 1-800-422-3087
USDA Grain Supply/Demand Summary Matt Zeller • [email protected]
July 10, 2015
July-15 U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand (mb) July July June USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 56.2 56.8 55.4 Harvested 45.3 46.4 48.0 Yield 47.1 43.7 44.2
July USDA 15/16 56.1 48.5 44.3
Carryin Production Imports Supply
718 2135 169 3021
590 2026 144 2760
712 2121 140 2973
753 2148 130 3031
Food Exports Seed Feed/Res Demand
952 1176 77 226 2431
960 855 81 111 2007
967 925 72 195 2159
Carryout CO/Use
590 0.243
753 0.375
Price range
$6.87
$5.99
World Wheat Supply/Demand (mmt) July July June July USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
177.12 715.11
193.52 725.92
200.41 721.55
212.06 721.96
892.23
919.44
921.96
934.02
967 950 72 200 2189
698.72
707.38
719.56
714.20
814 0.377
842 0.385
193.52 0.277
212.06 0.300
202.40 0.281
219.81 0.308
$4.40 $5.40
$4.75 $5.75
AUS Prod: 15/16 CAN Prod: 15/16
26.0; unch 27.5; -1.5
Summary: USDA punting on both yield and acreage right now Corn: old-crop usage soars after June 30th stocks report, with feed up 50 million bushels, and exports and ethanol usage categories gain 25 mbu each. Overall old-crop carryout drops by 97 mbu. Government leaves yields unchanged this month, with production down 100 mbu after incorporating June acreage decline. However, 25 mbu cuts in feed and export usage take out a 25 mbu gain in '15/16 ethanol demand to leave overall corn carryout down 172 mbu to 1599 mbu, still well above average trade guess. World carryout for 2014/15 loses 3 MMT on reduced old-crop production; overall carryout for '15/16 is down 5.2 MMT, with new crops in both U.S. and E.U. down around 2 MMT. Brazil output up 2 MMT in '15/16, however.
Beans: old-crop crush and exports rise once again this month, up 15 mbu each this time, with "residual" usage for the 2014 crop up 44 mbu, or about half a bushel per acre yield miss. Overall old-crop carryout down a sharp 75 mbu to just 255 mbu, over 30 mbu below the trade's expectation. New-crop production up 35 mbu on the June 30 acreage increase, despite yields being left unchanged this month. New-crop crush gains 10 mbu this month. All this leaves overall '15/16 stocks down 50 mbu, still at 425 mbu. World '14/15 carryout loses 2 MMT but U.S. production increase is factored in to '15/16 table - overall global stocks down 1.4 MMT then.
Wheat: old-crop feed and residual usage loses 49 mbu this month, translating to a 41 mbu stocks gain following the 6/30 report. New-crop acreage and yield up slightly, resulting in a 27 mbu production increase which matched the trade estimate. '15/16 imports down 10 mbu, with exports up 25 mbu and feed/residual up 5 mbu. Overall newcrop carryout rises 28 mbu, still nearly 20 mbu below expectations though. World balance tables thrown into chaos by Chinese demand cuts throughout - overall global stocks up a whopping 17.4 million tonnes this month.
Results: trade not buying these yield numbers, waiting for possible acreage changes next month too. Soybean stocks just continue to tighten...
FCStone Market Intelligence Grain SD Report.xls
2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 100 West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.intlfcstone.com 1-800-422-3087
