Demand Summary
USDA Grain Supply/Demand Summary Matt Zeller • [email protected] August 12, 2015
August-15 U.S. Corn Supply/Demand (mb) Aug Aug July USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 95.4 90.6 88.9 Harvested 87.5 83.1 81.1 Yield 158.1 171.0 166.8
Aug USDA 15/16 88.9 81.1 168.8
Carryin Production Imports Supply
821 13829 36 14686
1232 14216 30 15477
1779 13530 25 15334
1772 13686 30 15488
Feed Exports Ethanol Other Ind Demand
5036 1917 5134 1367 13454
5300 1850 5200 1355 13705
5275 1875 5225 1360 13735
Carryout CO/Use
1232 0.092
1772 0.129
Price range
$4.46
$3.65 $3.75 $0.00
World Corn Supply/Demand (mmt) Aug Aug July Aug USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
137.18 990.78
174.97 1006.24
193.95 987.11
197.42 985.61
1127.96
1181.21
1181.06
1183.03
5300 1850 5250 1375 13775
573.74
596.92
609.46
605.55
952.99
983.79
991.10
987.94
1599 0.116
1713 0.124
174.97 0.184
197.42 0.201
189.95 0.192
195.09 0.197
$3.45 $4.05
$3.35 $3.95
U.S. Soybean Supply/Demand (mb) Aug Aug July USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 76.8 83.7 85.1 Harvested 76.3 83.1 84.4 Yield 44.0 47.8 46.0
Aug USDA 15/16 84.3 83.5 46.9
BRZ Prod: 14/15 ARG Prod: 14/15
82.0; +2.0 26.5; +1.5
World Soybean Supply/Demand (mmt) Aug Aug July Aug USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
Carryin Production Imports Supply
141 3358 72 3570
92 3969 30 4091
255 3885 30 4170
240 3916 30 4186
56.15 283.25
62.73 319.36
81.68 318.92
80.57 320.05
339.40
382.09
400.60
400.62
Crush Exports Seed Residual Demand
1734 1647 97 0 3478
1845 1825 98 83 3851
1840 1775 92 38 3745
1860 1725 92 40 3717
241.18
258.34
268.08
271.61
275.31
296.93
306.23
309.86
Carryout CO/Use
92 0.026
240 0.062
425 0.113
470 0.126
62.73 0.228
80.57 0.271
91.80 0.300
86.88 0.280
Price range
$13.00
$10.05
$8.50 $10.00
$8.40 $9.90
Brazil Prod: 14/15 Argentina Prod: 14/15
94.5; unch 60.8; +0.8
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. The FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc.
FCStone Market Intelligence Grain SD Report.xls
2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 100 West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.intlfcstone.com 1-800-422-3087
USDA Grain Supply/Demand Summary Matt Zeller • [email protected]
August 12, 2015
August-15 U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand (mb) Aug Aug July USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 56.2 56.8 56.1 Harvested 45.3 46.4 48.5 Yield 47.1 43.7 44.3
Aug USDA 15/16 56.1 48.5 44.1
Carryin Production Imports Supply
718 2135 169 3021
590 2026 144 2760
753 2148 130 3031
753 2136 125 3014
Food Exports Seed Feed/Res Demand
955 1176 77 223 2431
958 854 81 115 2008
967 950 72 200 2189
Carryout CO/Use
590 0.243
753 0.375
Price range
$6.87
$5.99
World Wheat Supply/Demand (mmt) Aug Aug July Aug USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
177.02 715.11
193.35 725.25
212.06 721.96
209.66 726.55
892.13
918.60
934.02
936.21
967 925 72 200 2164
698.78
708.94
714.20
714.74
842 0.385
850 0.393
193.35 0.277
209.66 0.296
219.81 0.308
221.47 0.310
$4.75 $5.75
$4.65 $5.55
AUS Prod: 15/16 CAN Prod: 15/16
26.0; unch 26.5; -1.0
Summary: higher yields! Corn: old-crop stocks fall by a slim 7 million bushels with industrial corn usage up in both marketing seasons. 2015/16 acreage steady with yields up 2.0 bushels per acre, production up 156 mbu. On demand side, feed and ethanol usage each rise 25 mbu though exports fall 25 mbu. Overall carryout up a whopping 114 mbu to 1713 mln bu, nearly 300 mbu above the average trade guess. World 2015/16 carryin rises on a combined 3.5 million tonne gain for Argentina and Brazil corn output; global production does all 1.5 MMT for 2015/16 with the U.S. gains (+4 MMT) combined with increases in Brazil (+2.0 MMT) and the FSU/UKR, though cancelled out by losses in the E.U. (-3.5 MMT this month) and China (-4 MMT). Overall global carryout up over 5 MMT for 2015/16.
Beans: old-crop crush rises another 15 mbu with carryout following suit. New-crop acreage falls by 800-900k but that's offset by a surprise yield increase (+0.9 bpa), to leave production up 31 mbu overall. On demand side, crush is bumped by 20 mbu in '15/16 as well, though exports retreat 50 mbu. Overall new-crop carryout up 45 mbu to 470 mbu, versus 300 mbu average guess! World carryin for '15/16 falls 1.1 MMT but production rises 1.1 MMT (mostly on the US), but a large global demand increase moves overall stocks 5 MMT lower this month.
Wheat: small revisions only on the old-crop demand numbers. For 2015/16, acreage unchanged with yields down 0.2 bpa leaves production down 12 mbu. Wheat imports lose 5 mbu while exports lose 25 mbu; overall new-crop carryout is up 8 mbu this month, just a hair below average estimate. World wheat carryin for '15/16 falls 2.1 MMT, but overall stocks rise 1.7 MMT as global production is up 4.6 MMT this month - Canadian wheat output loses a million tonnes but the FSU crop is up 5+ MMT.
Results: bearish disaster as USDA exceeds any and all yield estimates this month - ending stocks remain stout despite pretty optimistic demand numbers across the board.
FCStone Market Intelligence Grain SD Report.xls
2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 100 West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.intlfcstone.com 1-800-422-3087
August-15 U.S. Corn Supply/Demand (mb) Aug Aug July USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 95.4 90.6 88.9 Harvested 87.5 83.1 81.1 Yield 158.1 171.0 166.8
Aug USDA 15/16 88.9 81.1 168.8
Carryin Production Imports Supply
821 13829 36 14686
1232 14216 30 15477
1779 13530 25 15334
1772 13686 30 15488
Feed Exports Ethanol Other Ind Demand
5036 1917 5134 1367 13454
5300 1850 5200 1355 13705
5275 1875 5225 1360 13735
Carryout CO/Use
1232 0.092
1772 0.129
Price range
$4.46
$3.65 $3.75 $0.00
World Corn Supply/Demand (mmt) Aug Aug July Aug USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
137.18 990.78
174.97 1006.24
193.95 987.11
197.42 985.61
1127.96
1181.21
1181.06
1183.03
5300 1850 5250 1375 13775
573.74
596.92
609.46
605.55
952.99
983.79
991.10
987.94
1599 0.116
1713 0.124
174.97 0.184
197.42 0.201
189.95 0.192
195.09 0.197
$3.45 $4.05
$3.35 $3.95
U.S. Soybean Supply/Demand (mb) Aug Aug July USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 76.8 83.7 85.1 Harvested 76.3 83.1 84.4 Yield 44.0 47.8 46.0
Aug USDA 15/16 84.3 83.5 46.9
BRZ Prod: 14/15 ARG Prod: 14/15
82.0; +2.0 26.5; +1.5
World Soybean Supply/Demand (mmt) Aug Aug July Aug USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
Carryin Production Imports Supply
141 3358 72 3570
92 3969 30 4091
255 3885 30 4170
240 3916 30 4186
56.15 283.25
62.73 319.36
81.68 318.92
80.57 320.05
339.40
382.09
400.60
400.62
Crush Exports Seed Residual Demand
1734 1647 97 0 3478
1845 1825 98 83 3851
1840 1775 92 38 3745
1860 1725 92 40 3717
241.18
258.34
268.08
271.61
275.31
296.93
306.23
309.86
Carryout CO/Use
92 0.026
240 0.062
425 0.113
470 0.126
62.73 0.228
80.57 0.271
91.80 0.300
86.88 0.280
Price range
$13.00
$10.05
$8.50 $10.00
$8.40 $9.90
Brazil Prod: 14/15 Argentina Prod: 14/15
94.5; unch 60.8; +0.8
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. The FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc.
FCStone Market Intelligence Grain SD Report.xls
2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 100 West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.intlfcstone.com 1-800-422-3087
USDA Grain Supply/Demand Summary Matt Zeller • [email protected]
August 12, 2015
August-15 U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand (mb) Aug Aug July USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 56.2 56.8 56.1 Harvested 45.3 46.4 48.5 Yield 47.1 43.7 44.3
Aug USDA 15/16 56.1 48.5 44.1
Carryin Production Imports Supply
718 2135 169 3021
590 2026 144 2760
753 2148 130 3031
753 2136 125 3014
Food Exports Seed Feed/Res Demand
955 1176 77 223 2431
958 854 81 115 2008
967 950 72 200 2189
Carryout CO/Use
590 0.243
753 0.375
Price range
$6.87
$5.99
World Wheat Supply/Demand (mmt) Aug Aug July Aug USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
177.02 715.11
193.35 725.25
212.06 721.96
209.66 726.55
892.13
918.60
934.02
936.21
967 925 72 200 2164
698.78
708.94
714.20
714.74
842 0.385
850 0.393
193.35 0.277
209.66 0.296
219.81 0.308
221.47 0.310
$4.75 $5.75
$4.65 $5.55
AUS Prod: 15/16 CAN Prod: 15/16
26.0; unch 26.5; -1.0
Summary: higher yields! Corn: old-crop stocks fall by a slim 7 million bushels with industrial corn usage up in both marketing seasons. 2015/16 acreage steady with yields up 2.0 bushels per acre, production up 156 mbu. On demand side, feed and ethanol usage each rise 25 mbu though exports fall 25 mbu. Overall carryout up a whopping 114 mbu to 1713 mln bu, nearly 300 mbu above the average trade guess. World 2015/16 carryin rises on a combined 3.5 million tonne gain for Argentina and Brazil corn output; global production does all 1.5 MMT for 2015/16 with the U.S. gains (+4 MMT) combined with increases in Brazil (+2.0 MMT) and the FSU/UKR, though cancelled out by losses in the E.U. (-3.5 MMT this month) and China (-4 MMT). Overall global carryout up over 5 MMT for 2015/16.
Beans: old-crop crush rises another 15 mbu with carryout following suit. New-crop acreage falls by 800-900k but that's offset by a surprise yield increase (+0.9 bpa), to leave production up 31 mbu overall. On demand side, crush is bumped by 20 mbu in '15/16 as well, though exports retreat 50 mbu. Overall new-crop carryout up 45 mbu to 470 mbu, versus 300 mbu average guess! World carryin for '15/16 falls 1.1 MMT but production rises 1.1 MMT (mostly on the US), but a large global demand increase moves overall stocks 5 MMT lower this month.
Wheat: small revisions only on the old-crop demand numbers. For 2015/16, acreage unchanged with yields down 0.2 bpa leaves production down 12 mbu. Wheat imports lose 5 mbu while exports lose 25 mbu; overall new-crop carryout is up 8 mbu this month, just a hair below average estimate. World wheat carryin for '15/16 falls 2.1 MMT, but overall stocks rise 1.7 MMT as global production is up 4.6 MMT this month - Canadian wheat output loses a million tonnes but the FSU crop is up 5+ MMT.
Results: bearish disaster as USDA exceeds any and all yield estimates this month - ending stocks remain stout despite pretty optimistic demand numbers across the board.
FCStone Market Intelligence Grain SD Report.xls
2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 100 West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.intlfcstone.com 1-800-422-3087
