LPN Development - Global Alliance Partners
L.P.N. Development Sell (17E TP Bt10.00) Company Update
Close Bt12.90
Earnings upgrade /Earnings downgrade /Overview unchanged
Property Development January 11, 2017
Challenging to boost presales this year Price Performance (%) Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.558
1.171
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
1.4%
6.7%
Reuters / Bloomberg
LPN.BK/ LPN TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,475.70
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
19.00/535.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
39.00/24.07
52 week High / Low (Bt)
16.00/9.80
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
7,652.00 4.83
Estimated free float (%)
75.51
Beta
0.71
URL
www.lpn.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Worarat Powpaka Analyst, no. 17992 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6248
Level 2 (Declared)
Maintain Sell with the 17E TP at Bt10 We maintain a sell rating for LPN with the 17E TP at Bt10. LPN’s current share price has risen from the bottom at Bt9.8, mainly on the market expectation for better presales of new 2017E launches. However destocking LPN’s projects available for sales worth Bt13bn, which are in the low‐end segment, will remain a burden as its target group is still experiencing a financial source problem. Meanwhile, the new launches, which are focusing more on high‐end projects, will cause LPN to incur more marketing and promotional expenses to push its presales and transfers this year. Succeeded in selling out Lumpini Place Rama 4‐Ratchada but insignificant revenue LPN has succeeded with a joint leasehold condo project with Crown Property Bureau (CPB), namely, Lumpini Place Rama 4‐Ratchada (Bt300mn, 193 units), which was sold out on the first day of the launch. However, LPN will realize revenue from the project of around B10mn per year as it is leasing land from CPB for 30 years. Launching more projects in 2017E LPN ended 2016E with presales of around Bt8.5bn, declining 41.5% YoY from 2015. This resulted from the limited purchasing power of LPN’s low‐ end income group. In 2017E, LPN will adapt its strategy to target the mid‐ to‐high income segments and plans to launch 10‐12 projects with a total value of Bt17‐20bn. In Jan‐17, LPN is starting with five project launches worth Bt5.8bn. These comprise three Lumpini Ville brand projects (average price of Bt1.2‐1.5mn per unit) and one Lumpini Place brand project (average price of Bt1.5mn per unit), which are all low‐rise condos, with revenue expected to be realized by end‐2017E. Another Lumpini Suite brand project, namely, Lumpini Suite Phetchaburi‐Makkasan (average price of Bt3.62mn per unit), will be finished by end‐2018E. Maintain 2016‐17E net profit We maintain our view that 2016‐17E net profit will decline 3.4% and 20.8% YoY, respectively, as most of LPN’s ready‐to‐move projects and condos to be finished in 2017E worth around Bt13bn are still in the low‐ end segments, which are struggling with banks’ tightening of housing loan approvals. Hence, we expect LPN to have more marketing and promotional expenses to drive its presales for existing projects and new projects as well as transfers in 2017E.
Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Core EPS (Bt) Core EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) Normalized PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2013 14,347 2,329 1.58 4.5 1.58 6.2 0.84 6.52 2013 8.2 8.2 7.7 2.0 6.5 25.7 42.6
2014 12,867 2,021 1.37 (13.2) 1.37 (13.2) 0.80 7.05 2014 9.4 9.4 9.4 1.8 6.2 20.2 52.4
2015 16,627 2,413 1.64 19.4 1.64 19.4 0.90 7.85 2015 7.9 7.9 7.4 1.6 7.0 22.0 37.9
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2016E 15,313 2,332 1.58 (3.4) 1.57 (4.0) 0.85 8.53 2016E 8.2 8.2 7.3 1.5 6.6 19.3 20.1
2017E 13,338 1,847 1.25 (20.8) 1.25 (20.3) 0.63 8.93 2017E 10.3 10.3 9.3 1.4 4.9 14.3 24.5
Figure 1: Quarterly presales
Figure 2: Condo completion schedule
16,000
Btmn 12,000
14,000
10,000
Btmn
12,000
8,000
10,000
6,000
8,000 6,000
4,000
4,000
2,000
2,000
Source: LPN, KT ZMICO Research
2016
2015
4Q16
3Q16
2Q16
1Q16
4Q15
3Q15
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
‐
‐ 1Q152Q153Q154Q151Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q173Q174Q17
Source: LPN, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 14,347 (9,657) 4,690 (1,779) 2,990 37 2,953 (12) 42 2,954 (625) 0 0 0 2,329 1.58 1.58 2,329 1.58 0.84
2014 12,867 (8,704) 4,163 (1,679) 2,600 39 2,561 (21) 78 2,555 (534) 0 0 0 2,021 1.37 1.37 2,021 1.37 0.80
2015 16,627 (11,476) 5,151 (2,066) 3,167 47 3,120 (11) 35 3,121 (707) 0 0 0 2,413 1.64 1.64 2,413 1.64 0.90
2016E 15,313 (10,536) 4,777 (1,875) 2,973 46 2,927 (7) 25 2,941 (609) 0 16 0 2,332 1.58 1.58 2,316 1.57 0.85
2017E 13,338 (9,391) 3,947 (1,629) 2,390 48 2,343 (15) 24 2,338 (491) 0 0 0 1,847 1.25 1.25 1,847 1.25 0.63
2013 1,192 130 3,500 1,189 11,203 17,420 5,148 140 7,794 1,476 9,626 17,420
2014 1,113 232 4,957 1,702 11,522 19,784 4,986 1,583 9,375 1,476 10,408 19,784
2015 758 140 5,589 2,003 10,703 19,625 2,934 2,209 8,044 1,476 11,581 19,625
2016E 514 214 8,082 2,046 7,093 18,341 1,128 1,910 5,755 1,476 12,586 18,341
2017E 500 187 5,145 2,088 11,102 19,366 1,798 1,930 6,187 1,476 13,178 19,366
2013 2,329 (392) 37 (3,212) (1,238) (12) 0 (12) 2,439 0 (1,165) 0 1,274 24 (904) (0.61)
2014 2,021 (279) 39 (1,847) (66) (52) (66) (118) 1,279 0 (1,239) 0 40 (144) 12 0.01
2015 2,413 (191) 47 379 2,647 (322) 66 (256) (1,444) 0 (1,240) 0 (2,684) (292) 2,556 1.73
2016E 2,332 22 46 844 3,244 (49) 0 (49) (2,860) 0 (1,328) 749 (3,440) (245) 3,174 2.15
2017E 1,847 23 48 (1,313) 604 (49) 0 (49) 1,285 0 (1,254) (600) (569) (14) 533 0.36
2013 7.7 5.4 4.5 32.7 20.8 20.6 16.2 16.2 21.2
2014 (10.3) (13.0) (13.2) 32.4 20.2 19.9 15.7 15.7 20.9
2015 29.2 21.8 19.4 31.0 19.0 18.8 14.5 14.5 22.7
2016E (7.9) (6.1) (3.4) 31.2 19.4 19.1 15.2 15.1 20.7
2017E (12.9) (19.6) (20.8) 29.6 17.9 17.6 13.8 13.8 21.0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068
Close Bt12.90
Earnings upgrade /Earnings downgrade /Overview unchanged
Property Development January 11, 2017
Challenging to boost presales this year Price Performance (%) Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.558
1.171
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
1.4%
6.7%
Reuters / Bloomberg
LPN.BK/ LPN TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,475.70
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
19.00/535.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
39.00/24.07
52 week High / Low (Bt)
16.00/9.80
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
7,652.00 4.83
Estimated free float (%)
75.51
Beta
0.71
URL
www.lpn.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Worarat Powpaka Analyst, no. 17992 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6248
Level 2 (Declared)
Maintain Sell with the 17E TP at Bt10 We maintain a sell rating for LPN with the 17E TP at Bt10. LPN’s current share price has risen from the bottom at Bt9.8, mainly on the market expectation for better presales of new 2017E launches. However destocking LPN’s projects available for sales worth Bt13bn, which are in the low‐end segment, will remain a burden as its target group is still experiencing a financial source problem. Meanwhile, the new launches, which are focusing more on high‐end projects, will cause LPN to incur more marketing and promotional expenses to push its presales and transfers this year. Succeeded in selling out Lumpini Place Rama 4‐Ratchada but insignificant revenue LPN has succeeded with a joint leasehold condo project with Crown Property Bureau (CPB), namely, Lumpini Place Rama 4‐Ratchada (Bt300mn, 193 units), which was sold out on the first day of the launch. However, LPN will realize revenue from the project of around B10mn per year as it is leasing land from CPB for 30 years. Launching more projects in 2017E LPN ended 2016E with presales of around Bt8.5bn, declining 41.5% YoY from 2015. This resulted from the limited purchasing power of LPN’s low‐ end income group. In 2017E, LPN will adapt its strategy to target the mid‐ to‐high income segments and plans to launch 10‐12 projects with a total value of Bt17‐20bn. In Jan‐17, LPN is starting with five project launches worth Bt5.8bn. These comprise three Lumpini Ville brand projects (average price of Bt1.2‐1.5mn per unit) and one Lumpini Place brand project (average price of Bt1.5mn per unit), which are all low‐rise condos, with revenue expected to be realized by end‐2017E. Another Lumpini Suite brand project, namely, Lumpini Suite Phetchaburi‐Makkasan (average price of Bt3.62mn per unit), will be finished by end‐2018E. Maintain 2016‐17E net profit We maintain our view that 2016‐17E net profit will decline 3.4% and 20.8% YoY, respectively, as most of LPN’s ready‐to‐move projects and condos to be finished in 2017E worth around Bt13bn are still in the low‐ end segments, which are struggling with banks’ tightening of housing loan approvals. Hence, we expect LPN to have more marketing and promotional expenses to drive its presales for existing projects and new projects as well as transfers in 2017E.
Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Core EPS (Bt) Core EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) Normalized PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2013 14,347 2,329 1.58 4.5 1.58 6.2 0.84 6.52 2013 8.2 8.2 7.7 2.0 6.5 25.7 42.6
2014 12,867 2,021 1.37 (13.2) 1.37 (13.2) 0.80 7.05 2014 9.4 9.4 9.4 1.8 6.2 20.2 52.4
2015 16,627 2,413 1.64 19.4 1.64 19.4 0.90 7.85 2015 7.9 7.9 7.4 1.6 7.0 22.0 37.9
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2016E 15,313 2,332 1.58 (3.4) 1.57 (4.0) 0.85 8.53 2016E 8.2 8.2 7.3 1.5 6.6 19.3 20.1
2017E 13,338 1,847 1.25 (20.8) 1.25 (20.3) 0.63 8.93 2017E 10.3 10.3 9.3 1.4 4.9 14.3 24.5
Figure 1: Quarterly presales
Figure 2: Condo completion schedule
16,000
Btmn 12,000
14,000
10,000
Btmn
12,000
8,000
10,000
6,000
8,000 6,000
4,000
4,000
2,000
2,000
Source: LPN, KT ZMICO Research
2016
2015
4Q16
3Q16
2Q16
1Q16
4Q15
3Q15
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
‐
‐ 1Q152Q153Q154Q151Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q173Q174Q17
Source: LPN, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 14,347 (9,657) 4,690 (1,779) 2,990 37 2,953 (12) 42 2,954 (625) 0 0 0 2,329 1.58 1.58 2,329 1.58 0.84
2014 12,867 (8,704) 4,163 (1,679) 2,600 39 2,561 (21) 78 2,555 (534) 0 0 0 2,021 1.37 1.37 2,021 1.37 0.80
2015 16,627 (11,476) 5,151 (2,066) 3,167 47 3,120 (11) 35 3,121 (707) 0 0 0 2,413 1.64 1.64 2,413 1.64 0.90
2016E 15,313 (10,536) 4,777 (1,875) 2,973 46 2,927 (7) 25 2,941 (609) 0 16 0 2,332 1.58 1.58 2,316 1.57 0.85
2017E 13,338 (9,391) 3,947 (1,629) 2,390 48 2,343 (15) 24 2,338 (491) 0 0 0 1,847 1.25 1.25 1,847 1.25 0.63
2013 1,192 130 3,500 1,189 11,203 17,420 5,148 140 7,794 1,476 9,626 17,420
2014 1,113 232 4,957 1,702 11,522 19,784 4,986 1,583 9,375 1,476 10,408 19,784
2015 758 140 5,589 2,003 10,703 19,625 2,934 2,209 8,044 1,476 11,581 19,625
2016E 514 214 8,082 2,046 7,093 18,341 1,128 1,910 5,755 1,476 12,586 18,341
2017E 500 187 5,145 2,088 11,102 19,366 1,798 1,930 6,187 1,476 13,178 19,366
2013 2,329 (392) 37 (3,212) (1,238) (12) 0 (12) 2,439 0 (1,165) 0 1,274 24 (904) (0.61)
2014 2,021 (279) 39 (1,847) (66) (52) (66) (118) 1,279 0 (1,239) 0 40 (144) 12 0.01
2015 2,413 (191) 47 379 2,647 (322) 66 (256) (1,444) 0 (1,240) 0 (2,684) (292) 2,556 1.73
2016E 2,332 22 46 844 3,244 (49) 0 (49) (2,860) 0 (1,328) 749 (3,440) (245) 3,174 2.15
2017E 1,847 23 48 (1,313) 604 (49) 0 (49) 1,285 0 (1,254) (600) (569) (14) 533 0.36
2013 7.7 5.4 4.5 32.7 20.8 20.6 16.2 16.2 21.2
2014 (10.3) (13.0) (13.2) 32.4 20.2 19.9 15.7 15.7 20.9
2015 29.2 21.8 19.4 31.0 19.0 18.8 14.5 14.5 22.7
2016E (7.9) (6.1) (3.4) 31.2 19.4 19.1 15.2 15.1 20.7
2017E (12.9) (19.6) (20.8) 29.6 17.9 17.6 13.8 13.8 21.0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
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KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068
