March 2015 Weathercall NA
March 2015 Issued: April 6, 2015
Spring Fever! A Glimpse of Spring Throughout North America Supported Seasonal Purchasing. Record Warmth in the West Continued to Drive Spring Demand. Winter Weather Hung on Across the Northeast. March temperatures in the U.S. were the warmest since the record March of 2012, with all regions trending warmer than last year. Rainfall was the least since 2013 and below normal. Snowfall was the least since 2012 and well below normal. In Canada, temperatures were the warmest since 2013, although near normal. Rain and snowfall were the least since 2013.
March 2015 vs. March 2014
Weather’s Impact “Seasonal businesses continued to flourish in the West, driven by record warmth. The Northeast had to deal with a few more punches from Ol’ Man Winter; however, there were glimpses of Spring towards the end of the month which aided seasonal categories,” said Scott Bernhardt, President of Planalytics.
Temperature Callouts • All U.S. regions trended warmer than last year. The Pacific region had its warmest March in over 55 year and the Mountain region was the warmest since 2007. o LA, Sacramento, San Diego, Phoenix, and Orlando were all warmest in 55+ years. o Seattle, Portland, OR, Salt Lake City, Las Vegas, and Miami were each 2nd warmest in 55+ years. • Conversely in the East, Boston had its coldest March since 1984; Philadelphia since 2005. • The West was also best in Canada for spring product demand. Vancouver had its warmest March since 1992; Edmonton and Calgary since 2010.
Precipitation and Snowfall Callouts • Despite U.S. snowfall trending 35% below LY and well below normal, NYC had its most March snowfall in 55+ years. Philadelphia had its snowiest March since 1993, and Nashville since 1996. o Conversely, the Mountain region had its least March snowfall since 1961. • Rainfall in the U.S. was 14% below last year and less than normal. The West North Central region was driest since 2005, however the West South Central had its 2nd wettest March in over 55 years. • Canada had its least March snowfall since 2013. Calgary and Ottawa were least since 2010. • Rainfall in Canada was below both last year and normal. Montreal was driest since 2006. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Hotter
Colder
Mean Temperature Trends for March 2015 Temp vs City Temp vs LY Normal Notable Orlando +5.5F +6.0F Warmest in 55+ years Phoenix +4.0F +5.7F Warmest in 55+ years Los Angeles +2.9F +5.8F Warmest in 55+ years San Francisco +1.4F +5.2F Warmest in 55+ years Vancouver +1.1C +1.6C Warmest since 1992 Boston -0.5F -5.0F Coldest since 1984
Precipitation
• A Step in the Right Direction. o Despite the first week of the month trending coldest since 1996, all regions of the U.S. trended warmest since the record March of 2012 during weeks 2 through 5. • Orlando was warmest since 1973 during week 2 and warmest in 55 years during week 3. Tampa had its warmest March week 2 in 55+ years; New Orleans week 3 in 30+ years. o Conversely, Baltimore, Dallas, and San Antonio had their coldest March week 1 in over 55 years. Boston had its coldest week 3 since 1993, and coldest week 4 since 1974. Buffalo, Cleveland, and Chicago each had their coldest March week 4 since 1983. • The West was Feelin’ Hot, Hot, Hot. o The West continued to be best for spring demand as the Pacific region was warmest in over 55 years during weeks 2-4 and the Mountain region saw record warmth during week 3. • Weeks 2-5 each trended warmest in 55+ years for San Diego, while Los Angeles had record warmth during weeks 2 and 3. Las Vegas and Salt Lake City experienced record warmth during week 3, Seattle and San Francisco during week 4, and Phoenix during week 5. • Canada also trended warmer than LY during all 5 weeks. Calgary had its warmest March week 2 in 55+ years, Vancouver warmest week 3 in 20 years and week 4 in over 55 years. • Luck of the Irish Didn’t Stick Around for the Easter Bunny. o St. Patrick's Day (March 17) in the U.S. was warmest since 2012 and dry, while Canada was colder and drier than normal. Easter (April 5) in the U.S. trended coldest since 2009, and wetter than Easter LY (April 20), although drier than normal boding well for restaurant traffic and outdoor activities. Easter in Canada was the coldest since 2008 and the driest since 2010. • Boston Wins Another Title. o Boston topped its all-time seasonal snowfall record during the 2nd week of March as seasonal snowfall totals topped 110 inches. o Winter continued during March week 1 with the West South Central having its most snowfall in 55+ years, East South Central in 45 years, and Mid-Atlantic in 10 years. • Philly, NYC, DC, and Baltimore all broke daily records set over 12 years ago during week 1. • NYC set a daily snowfall record (4.6”) on the 1st day of spring (March 20). • Chicago had its most March week 4 snowfall since 1983; Minneapolis most since 1996. • Severe Weather Hit the Snooze Button. o The severe weather season got off to its latest season start since 1970. Events kicked in during weeks 4 and 5, which combined for over 30 tornado and 500 hail reports, supporting purchases of emergency preparedness product and demand for clean-up items.
Temperature
Significant Weather Events
Wetter
Drier
City New York City Philadelphia Little Rock Oklahoma City Cleveland Ottawa
Snowfall Trends for March 2015 Snowfall Total Snowfall vs LY Notable 17.3 in +16.9 in Snowiest in 55+ years 12.0 in +3.5 in Snowiest since 1993 6.4 in +4.8 in Snowiest since 1971 4.2 in +2.7 in Snowiest since 1995 0.6 in -14.2 in Least snow since 1961 240.5 mm -119.9 mm Least snow since 2010
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product / category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather.
Grass Seed Lawn Fertilizer Sandals Flea & Tick Control Sports Drinks Fleece
+12% +9% +8% +7% +6% -7%
Retail Traffic WDD by Segment
Estimated impact of weather on foot traffic by retail segment.
Softlines Restaurants Home Centers General Merchandise Indoor Entertainment
+1.9% +1.6% +1.1% +0.3% -2.1%
Weather was favorable for foot traffic at Gap Inc. (+8%), Panera Bread Co. (+7%), Advance Auto Parts (+2%), and Costco (+2%). www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
Spring Fever! A Glimpse of Spring Throughout North America Supported Seasonal Purchasing. Record Warmth in the West Continued to Drive Spring Demand. Winter Weather Hung on Across the Northeast. March temperatures in the U.S. were the warmest since the record March of 2012, with all regions trending warmer than last year. Rainfall was the least since 2013 and below normal. Snowfall was the least since 2012 and well below normal. In Canada, temperatures were the warmest since 2013, although near normal. Rain and snowfall were the least since 2013.
March 2015 vs. March 2014
Weather’s Impact “Seasonal businesses continued to flourish in the West, driven by record warmth. The Northeast had to deal with a few more punches from Ol’ Man Winter; however, there were glimpses of Spring towards the end of the month which aided seasonal categories,” said Scott Bernhardt, President of Planalytics.
Temperature Callouts • All U.S. regions trended warmer than last year. The Pacific region had its warmest March in over 55 year and the Mountain region was the warmest since 2007. o LA, Sacramento, San Diego, Phoenix, and Orlando were all warmest in 55+ years. o Seattle, Portland, OR, Salt Lake City, Las Vegas, and Miami were each 2nd warmest in 55+ years. • Conversely in the East, Boston had its coldest March since 1984; Philadelphia since 2005. • The West was also best in Canada for spring product demand. Vancouver had its warmest March since 1992; Edmonton and Calgary since 2010.
Precipitation and Snowfall Callouts • Despite U.S. snowfall trending 35% below LY and well below normal, NYC had its most March snowfall in 55+ years. Philadelphia had its snowiest March since 1993, and Nashville since 1996. o Conversely, the Mountain region had its least March snowfall since 1961. • Rainfall in the U.S. was 14% below last year and less than normal. The West North Central region was driest since 2005, however the West South Central had its 2nd wettest March in over 55 years. • Canada had its least March snowfall since 2013. Calgary and Ottawa were least since 2010. • Rainfall in Canada was below both last year and normal. Montreal was driest since 2006. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Hotter
Colder
Mean Temperature Trends for March 2015 Temp vs City Temp vs LY Normal Notable Orlando +5.5F +6.0F Warmest in 55+ years Phoenix +4.0F +5.7F Warmest in 55+ years Los Angeles +2.9F +5.8F Warmest in 55+ years San Francisco +1.4F +5.2F Warmest in 55+ years Vancouver +1.1C +1.6C Warmest since 1992 Boston -0.5F -5.0F Coldest since 1984
Precipitation
• A Step in the Right Direction. o Despite the first week of the month trending coldest since 1996, all regions of the U.S. trended warmest since the record March of 2012 during weeks 2 through 5. • Orlando was warmest since 1973 during week 2 and warmest in 55 years during week 3. Tampa had its warmest March week 2 in 55+ years; New Orleans week 3 in 30+ years. o Conversely, Baltimore, Dallas, and San Antonio had their coldest March week 1 in over 55 years. Boston had its coldest week 3 since 1993, and coldest week 4 since 1974. Buffalo, Cleveland, and Chicago each had their coldest March week 4 since 1983. • The West was Feelin’ Hot, Hot, Hot. o The West continued to be best for spring demand as the Pacific region was warmest in over 55 years during weeks 2-4 and the Mountain region saw record warmth during week 3. • Weeks 2-5 each trended warmest in 55+ years for San Diego, while Los Angeles had record warmth during weeks 2 and 3. Las Vegas and Salt Lake City experienced record warmth during week 3, Seattle and San Francisco during week 4, and Phoenix during week 5. • Canada also trended warmer than LY during all 5 weeks. Calgary had its warmest March week 2 in 55+ years, Vancouver warmest week 3 in 20 years and week 4 in over 55 years. • Luck of the Irish Didn’t Stick Around for the Easter Bunny. o St. Patrick's Day (March 17) in the U.S. was warmest since 2012 and dry, while Canada was colder and drier than normal. Easter (April 5) in the U.S. trended coldest since 2009, and wetter than Easter LY (April 20), although drier than normal boding well for restaurant traffic and outdoor activities. Easter in Canada was the coldest since 2008 and the driest since 2010. • Boston Wins Another Title. o Boston topped its all-time seasonal snowfall record during the 2nd week of March as seasonal snowfall totals topped 110 inches. o Winter continued during March week 1 with the West South Central having its most snowfall in 55+ years, East South Central in 45 years, and Mid-Atlantic in 10 years. • Philly, NYC, DC, and Baltimore all broke daily records set over 12 years ago during week 1. • NYC set a daily snowfall record (4.6”) on the 1st day of spring (March 20). • Chicago had its most March week 4 snowfall since 1983; Minneapolis most since 1996. • Severe Weather Hit the Snooze Button. o The severe weather season got off to its latest season start since 1970. Events kicked in during weeks 4 and 5, which combined for over 30 tornado and 500 hail reports, supporting purchases of emergency preparedness product and demand for clean-up items.
Temperature
Significant Weather Events
Wetter
Drier
City New York City Philadelphia Little Rock Oklahoma City Cleveland Ottawa
Snowfall Trends for March 2015 Snowfall Total Snowfall vs LY Notable 17.3 in +16.9 in Snowiest in 55+ years 12.0 in +3.5 in Snowiest since 1993 6.4 in +4.8 in Snowiest since 1971 4.2 in +2.7 in Snowiest since 1995 0.6 in -14.2 in Least snow since 1961 240.5 mm -119.9 mm Least snow since 2010
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product / category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather.
Grass Seed Lawn Fertilizer Sandals Flea & Tick Control Sports Drinks Fleece
+12% +9% +8% +7% +6% -7%
Retail Traffic WDD by Segment
Estimated impact of weather on foot traffic by retail segment.
Softlines Restaurants Home Centers General Merchandise Indoor Entertainment
+1.9% +1.6% +1.1% +0.3% -2.1%
Weather was favorable for foot traffic at Gap Inc. (+8%), Panera Bread Co. (+7%), Advance Auto Parts (+2%), and Costco (+2%). www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
