Monthly Report - Aljazira Capital
Monthly Report
January 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | December 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
TASI ended the month at 7,226.32 points, a 3.2% increase MoM compared to November 2017 .Total value traded stood at SAR 87.41bn. Basic Materials and Real Estate Mgmt & Dev’t sectors accounted for 51.4% of the total value traded. Capital Goods and Media were the best performing sectors, showing an increase of 10.2%MoM and 8.8%MoM respectively. While Utilities and Food & Beverages sectors were the worst performers showing a decline of 11.6% and 2.7% MoM respectively.
TASI Movement During December
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
7,300
5.50
7,250
5.00
7,200
4.50
7,150
4.00
7,100
3.50
7,050
3.00
10-Dec-17
17-Dec-17
24-Dec-17
Value Traded(bn)-RHS
REITs
Insurance
Pharma & Bio Tech
Healthcare
Food & Beverages
Consumer Services
10.0%
TASI
20.0%
Consumer Durables
Materials
40.0% 30.0%
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
Commercial Service
50.0%
2.50
Closing Price - LHS
Sectors Performance 60.0%
31-Dec-17
Telecom
7,000 3-Dec-17
MoM Performance
YTD
Value Traded per Sector (%)
Real Estate
Utilities
Diversified Financials
Food & Staples
Retailing
Media
Transportation
Capital Goods
Energy
-20.0%
Banks
0.0% -10.0% -30.0%
25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00%
Pharma, Biotech & Life Science
Consumer Durables & Apparel
Food & Staples Retailing
Retailing
Diversified Financials
REITs
Health Care Equipment & Svc
Media
Transportation
Energy
Utilities
Consumer Services
Food & Beverages
Telecommunication Services
Capital Goods
Insurance
Banks
Real Estate Mgmt & Dev't
Commercial & Professional Svc
1
Materials
5.00%
© All rights reserved
TASI increased 222.3 points (up 3.2%MoM). Media and Retailing sectors showed the highest YTD increase of 51.1% and 14.7% respectively. On other hand, Pharma & Bio Tech and Consumer Services were the worst performing sectors recording a decline of 26.2% and 23.7% respectively.
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
30.00%
0.00%
TASI started the month at 7003.97 points and closed at 7226.32 with an average daily value traded of SAR 4.16bn compared to 3.43bn in November.
Basic Materials and Real Estate were the highest traded sectors, accounting for 27.35% and 24.02%, respectively, of total value traded in December. On the other hand, Consumer Durables and Pharma were the lowest, accounting for 0.60% and 0.13% respectively.
Monthly Report
January 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | December 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
GCC Market Performance
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
On a Monthly basis, Qatar was the best performing index, rising 10.5%MoM. Dubai index was the worst performer recording a decline of 1.5% MoM. On A YTD basis, Qatar was the worst performing index, showed a decline of 18.3%YTD. On the other hand, Kuwait was the best performer, rising 11.5%YTD.
15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0%
TASI
Dubai (DFMGI)
Abu dahbi
Qatar
Kuwait
Monthly
Bahrain
Oman
YTD
Top/Worst Performing Companies (December 2017)
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
55.0% 45.0% 35.0% 25.0% 15.0% 5.0%
Companies with lowest PE
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
10.00
7.91
8.07
BJAZ
7.00
7.54
7.86
Gulf Union
8.00
AL-BABTAIN
9.00
Enaya
Saudi Electric.
AlHokair
Mouwasat
Herfy Foods
ALJOUF
Najran cement
Yanbu cement
Dar Al Arkan
CHEMANOL
-5.0% -15.0%
8.27
8.44
8.45
8.50
8.54
8.84
8.88
9.03
9.21
9.57
Buruj had the lowest P/E of 6.57x by the end of December, followed by Arabian Shield at 7.54x and AL-BABTAIN at 7.86x.
6.57
6.00
2
© All rights reserved
Samba
WALAA
ALTAYYAR
UCA
Trade Union
Saudi Electric.
Solidarity
ARNB
SAICO
saib
Arabian Shield
Buruj
5.00 4.00
Dar Al Arkan was the best performing stock in December recording an increase of 51.3%MoM followed by Yanbu Cement which showed increase of 33.9%MoM. On the other hand, Enaya was the worst performing stock recording a 13.9% decline, followed by Saudi Electric which showed a decline of 12.3%MoM.
Monthly Report
January 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | December 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Economic Data SAIBOR
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
2.500
3-month and 6-month SAIBOR ended the month at 1.896% and 2.088% respectively. The 3-month and 6-month SAIBOR showed an increase of 4.3% and 1.2% respectively.
2.350 2.200 2.050 1.900 1.750 1.600 Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Inflation Rate
Dec-17
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
2.60%
Saudi Arabia inflation rate stood at 0.1% at the end of November, an increase from (–0.2%) in October.
2.10% 1.60% 1.10% 0.60% 0.10% -0.40% -0.90% Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Deposits & loans
Nov-17
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
5.5%
90%
4.0%
88%
2.5%
86%
1.0%
84%
Changes in Loans(LHS)
Changes In Deposits(LHS)
Nov-17
Aug-17
May-17
Feb-17
Nov-16
Aug-16
May-16
Feb-16
Nov-15
Aug-15
May-15
Feb-15
Nov-14
Aug-14
May-14
Feb-14
Nov-13
78%
Aug-13
-3.5%
May-13
80%
Feb-13
82%
-2.0%
Nov-12
-0.5%
ADR(RHS)
Change in Loans by Maturity (%)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital 16.0%
45.0%
13.0% 10.0%
30.0%
7.0%
15.0%
4.0% 1.0%
0.0%
Less than 1 Year (%) -LHS
3
© All rights reserved
1 to 3 year (%) -LHS
Above 3 year (%) -LHS
Nov-17
Sep-17
Jul-17
May-17
Mar-17
Jan-17
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
-2.0%
Nov-14
-15.0%
Deposits showed a decline of SAR 1.22bn (-0.1%MoM), while loans showed a decline of SAR 3.19bn(-0.2%MoM) by end of November.
-5.0%
Tota loan YoY Growth (%) -RHS
Total loans showed a decline of (-1.0% YoY), the highest decline was for loans with maturity of less than 1 year which showed a decline of (-2.9%YoY), while loans of maturity above 3 year showed an increase of 2.5%YoY.
Monthly Report
January 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | December 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Change in Demand - Time and Saving Deposits
40,000
1500
15,000
1300
-10,000
1100
-35,000
900
-60,000 Nov-12 Mar-13
Jul-13
Demand Deposit (LHS)
Nov-13 Mar-14
Jul-14
Nov-14 Mar-15
Time & Savings Deposits (LHS)
Jul-15
Nov-15 Mar-16
Other Deposits (LHS)
Jul-16
Nov-16 Mar-17
Jul-17
Nov-17
Government Deposits ( includes all types of deposits)(RHS)
POS (Point of Sale)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital 69.0
20.0
64.0
18.0
59.0 54.0
16.0
SAR (Million)
49.0 44.0
14.0
39.0 34.0
10.0
24.0
© All rights reserved
No. of Transactions (mn) (RHS)
Nov-17
Sep-17
Jul-17
May-17
Mar-17
Jan-17
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
29.0
Jan-15
Nov-14
12.0
Sales(bn) (LHS)
4
Demand deposits showed an increase of SAR 3.3bn (0.3%MoM), while Time & Saving deposits showed a decrease of SAR 12.1bn (-2.7%MoM). On the other hand, government deposits showed a decline of (-2.7% MoM).
700
SAR ('000)
SAR (Million)
1700
SAR ('000)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
65,000
Point of Sales showed an increase of (2.4% MoM) and stood at SAR 16.8bn, with total number of transactions standing at 66.0mn (up 2.7%).
Monthly Report
January 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | December 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Commodities Prices Oil Prices (USD) *
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
68
8 7
63
6
58
5 4
53
3
48
2
43 38
Brent and WTI showed an increase of 5.2%MoM and 5.3%MoM respectively, and closed at $66.87 and $60.42 respectively.
1 Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17 Spread(RHS)
Jun-17
Jul-17 Brent(LHS)
Aug-17
Sep-17 WTI(LHS)
Gold & Silver (% Monthly change)
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
0
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
20.0%
85
15.0%
80
10.0%
75
5.0%
70
0.0%
65
-5.0%
60
-10.0%
55
-15.0%
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Changes in Gold Price(LHS) Changes in Silver Price(LHS)
Copper
Oct-17
Nov-17
G/S Price (RHS)
Gold and Silver showed an increase of 2.2%MoM and 3.0%MoM respectively, and closed the month at $1302.8 and $16.9 respectively.
50
Dec-17
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
3.4 3.2
Copper showed an increase of 8.7%MoM and ended the month at 3.301USD/lb.
USD/Ib
3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Steel **
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
670.0 660.0
Steel showed an increase of 5.2%MoM and ended the month at 662.0 USD/ton.
650.0 640.0
USD/Ton
630.0 620.0 610.0 600.0 590.0 580.0 570.0 Dec-16
5
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
* February 2018 contract for Brent, January 2018 contract for WTI ** HRC1 Index
© All rights reserved
Monthly Report
January 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | December 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Exchange Rate Dollar Index
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
104 102
Dollar Index showed a decrease of (-1.0%MoM) by the end of December and stood at 92.12 points.
100 98 96 94 92 90
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
EUR/USD
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-16
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
1.23
Euro appreciated against the Dollar by 0.8%MoM and stood at 1.201EUR/USD.
1.19
1.15
1.11
1.07
1.03
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
USD/YUAN
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-16
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
6.950
YUAN appreciated by 1.5%MoM against the Dollar and stood at 6.507YUAN/USD.
6.850 6.750 6.650 6.550 6.450
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
USD/YEN
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-16
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
118
YEN depreciated by (0.1%MoM)against the Dollar and stood at 112.69YEN/USD.
116 114 112 110 108 106
6
Dec-16
Jan-17
© All rights reserved
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-16
RESEARCH DIVISION
Head of Research
RESEARCH DIVISION
BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION
Talha Nazar
Sultan Al Kadi, CAIA
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran
+966 11 2256250 [email protected]
+966 11 2256374 [email protected]
Analyst
Analyst
Waleed Al-jubayr
Muhanad Al-Odan
+966 11 2256146 [email protected]
+966 11 2256115 [email protected]
General Manager – Brokerage Services &
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment
sales
brokerage
Centers
Alaa Al-Yousef
Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Mansour Hamad Al-shuaibi
+966 11 2256060 [email protected]
+966 11 2256277 [email protected]
AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
+966 11 2256248 [email protected]
+966 12 6618443 [email protected]
Central Region
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
Abdullah Al-Rahit
+966 11 2256364 [email protected]
+966 16 3617547 [email protected]
AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1.
RATING TERMINOLOGY
Analyst
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
Disclaimer The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
Asset Management | Brokerage | Corporate Finance | Custody | Advisory Head Office: King Fahad Road, P.O. Box: 20438, Riyadh 11455, Saudi Arabia، Tel: 011 2256000 - Fax: 011 2256068
Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), license No. 07076-37
January 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | December 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
TASI ended the month at 7,226.32 points, a 3.2% increase MoM compared to November 2017 .Total value traded stood at SAR 87.41bn. Basic Materials and Real Estate Mgmt & Dev’t sectors accounted for 51.4% of the total value traded. Capital Goods and Media were the best performing sectors, showing an increase of 10.2%MoM and 8.8%MoM respectively. While Utilities and Food & Beverages sectors were the worst performers showing a decline of 11.6% and 2.7% MoM respectively.
TASI Movement During December
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
7,300
5.50
7,250
5.00
7,200
4.50
7,150
4.00
7,100
3.50
7,050
3.00
10-Dec-17
17-Dec-17
24-Dec-17
Value Traded(bn)-RHS
REITs
Insurance
Pharma & Bio Tech
Healthcare
Food & Beverages
Consumer Services
10.0%
TASI
20.0%
Consumer Durables
Materials
40.0% 30.0%
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
Commercial Service
50.0%
2.50
Closing Price - LHS
Sectors Performance 60.0%
31-Dec-17
Telecom
7,000 3-Dec-17
MoM Performance
YTD
Value Traded per Sector (%)
Real Estate
Utilities
Diversified Financials
Food & Staples
Retailing
Media
Transportation
Capital Goods
Energy
-20.0%
Banks
0.0% -10.0% -30.0%
25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00%
Pharma, Biotech & Life Science
Consumer Durables & Apparel
Food & Staples Retailing
Retailing
Diversified Financials
REITs
Health Care Equipment & Svc
Media
Transportation
Energy
Utilities
Consumer Services
Food & Beverages
Telecommunication Services
Capital Goods
Insurance
Banks
Real Estate Mgmt & Dev't
Commercial & Professional Svc
1
Materials
5.00%
© All rights reserved
TASI increased 222.3 points (up 3.2%MoM). Media and Retailing sectors showed the highest YTD increase of 51.1% and 14.7% respectively. On other hand, Pharma & Bio Tech and Consumer Services were the worst performing sectors recording a decline of 26.2% and 23.7% respectively.
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
30.00%
0.00%
TASI started the month at 7003.97 points and closed at 7226.32 with an average daily value traded of SAR 4.16bn compared to 3.43bn in November.
Basic Materials and Real Estate were the highest traded sectors, accounting for 27.35% and 24.02%, respectively, of total value traded in December. On the other hand, Consumer Durables and Pharma were the lowest, accounting for 0.60% and 0.13% respectively.
Monthly Report
January 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | December 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
GCC Market Performance
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
On a Monthly basis, Qatar was the best performing index, rising 10.5%MoM. Dubai index was the worst performer recording a decline of 1.5% MoM. On A YTD basis, Qatar was the worst performing index, showed a decline of 18.3%YTD. On the other hand, Kuwait was the best performer, rising 11.5%YTD.
15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0%
TASI
Dubai (DFMGI)
Abu dahbi
Qatar
Kuwait
Monthly
Bahrain
Oman
YTD
Top/Worst Performing Companies (December 2017)
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
55.0% 45.0% 35.0% 25.0% 15.0% 5.0%
Companies with lowest PE
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
10.00
7.91
8.07
BJAZ
7.00
7.54
7.86
Gulf Union
8.00
AL-BABTAIN
9.00
Enaya
Saudi Electric.
AlHokair
Mouwasat
Herfy Foods
ALJOUF
Najran cement
Yanbu cement
Dar Al Arkan
CHEMANOL
-5.0% -15.0%
8.27
8.44
8.45
8.50
8.54
8.84
8.88
9.03
9.21
9.57
Buruj had the lowest P/E of 6.57x by the end of December, followed by Arabian Shield at 7.54x and AL-BABTAIN at 7.86x.
6.57
6.00
2
© All rights reserved
Samba
WALAA
ALTAYYAR
UCA
Trade Union
Saudi Electric.
Solidarity
ARNB
SAICO
saib
Arabian Shield
Buruj
5.00 4.00
Dar Al Arkan was the best performing stock in December recording an increase of 51.3%MoM followed by Yanbu Cement which showed increase of 33.9%MoM. On the other hand, Enaya was the worst performing stock recording a 13.9% decline, followed by Saudi Electric which showed a decline of 12.3%MoM.
Monthly Report
January 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | December 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Economic Data SAIBOR
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
2.500
3-month and 6-month SAIBOR ended the month at 1.896% and 2.088% respectively. The 3-month and 6-month SAIBOR showed an increase of 4.3% and 1.2% respectively.
2.350 2.200 2.050 1.900 1.750 1.600 Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Inflation Rate
Dec-17
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
2.60%
Saudi Arabia inflation rate stood at 0.1% at the end of November, an increase from (–0.2%) in October.
2.10% 1.60% 1.10% 0.60% 0.10% -0.40% -0.90% Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Deposits & loans
Nov-17
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
5.5%
90%
4.0%
88%
2.5%
86%
1.0%
84%
Changes in Loans(LHS)
Changes In Deposits(LHS)
Nov-17
Aug-17
May-17
Feb-17
Nov-16
Aug-16
May-16
Feb-16
Nov-15
Aug-15
May-15
Feb-15
Nov-14
Aug-14
May-14
Feb-14
Nov-13
78%
Aug-13
-3.5%
May-13
80%
Feb-13
82%
-2.0%
Nov-12
-0.5%
ADR(RHS)
Change in Loans by Maturity (%)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital 16.0%
45.0%
13.0% 10.0%
30.0%
7.0%
15.0%
4.0% 1.0%
0.0%
Less than 1 Year (%) -LHS
3
© All rights reserved
1 to 3 year (%) -LHS
Above 3 year (%) -LHS
Nov-17
Sep-17
Jul-17
May-17
Mar-17
Jan-17
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
-2.0%
Nov-14
-15.0%
Deposits showed a decline of SAR 1.22bn (-0.1%MoM), while loans showed a decline of SAR 3.19bn(-0.2%MoM) by end of November.
-5.0%
Tota loan YoY Growth (%) -RHS
Total loans showed a decline of (-1.0% YoY), the highest decline was for loans with maturity of less than 1 year which showed a decline of (-2.9%YoY), while loans of maturity above 3 year showed an increase of 2.5%YoY.
Monthly Report
January 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | December 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Change in Demand - Time and Saving Deposits
40,000
1500
15,000
1300
-10,000
1100
-35,000
900
-60,000 Nov-12 Mar-13
Jul-13
Demand Deposit (LHS)
Nov-13 Mar-14
Jul-14
Nov-14 Mar-15
Time & Savings Deposits (LHS)
Jul-15
Nov-15 Mar-16
Other Deposits (LHS)
Jul-16
Nov-16 Mar-17
Jul-17
Nov-17
Government Deposits ( includes all types of deposits)(RHS)
POS (Point of Sale)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital 69.0
20.0
64.0
18.0
59.0 54.0
16.0
SAR (Million)
49.0 44.0
14.0
39.0 34.0
10.0
24.0
© All rights reserved
No. of Transactions (mn) (RHS)
Nov-17
Sep-17
Jul-17
May-17
Mar-17
Jan-17
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
29.0
Jan-15
Nov-14
12.0
Sales(bn) (LHS)
4
Demand deposits showed an increase of SAR 3.3bn (0.3%MoM), while Time & Saving deposits showed a decrease of SAR 12.1bn (-2.7%MoM). On the other hand, government deposits showed a decline of (-2.7% MoM).
700
SAR ('000)
SAR (Million)
1700
SAR ('000)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
65,000
Point of Sales showed an increase of (2.4% MoM) and stood at SAR 16.8bn, with total number of transactions standing at 66.0mn (up 2.7%).
Monthly Report
January 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | December 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Commodities Prices Oil Prices (USD) *
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
68
8 7
63
6
58
5 4
53
3
48
2
43 38
Brent and WTI showed an increase of 5.2%MoM and 5.3%MoM respectively, and closed at $66.87 and $60.42 respectively.
1 Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17 Spread(RHS)
Jun-17
Jul-17 Brent(LHS)
Aug-17
Sep-17 WTI(LHS)
Gold & Silver (% Monthly change)
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
0
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
20.0%
85
15.0%
80
10.0%
75
5.0%
70
0.0%
65
-5.0%
60
-10.0%
55
-15.0%
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Changes in Gold Price(LHS) Changes in Silver Price(LHS)
Copper
Oct-17
Nov-17
G/S Price (RHS)
Gold and Silver showed an increase of 2.2%MoM and 3.0%MoM respectively, and closed the month at $1302.8 and $16.9 respectively.
50
Dec-17
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
3.4 3.2
Copper showed an increase of 8.7%MoM and ended the month at 3.301USD/lb.
USD/Ib
3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Steel **
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
670.0 660.0
Steel showed an increase of 5.2%MoM and ended the month at 662.0 USD/ton.
650.0 640.0
USD/Ton
630.0 620.0 610.0 600.0 590.0 580.0 570.0 Dec-16
5
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
* February 2018 contract for Brent, January 2018 contract for WTI ** HRC1 Index
© All rights reserved
Monthly Report
January 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | December 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Exchange Rate Dollar Index
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
104 102
Dollar Index showed a decrease of (-1.0%MoM) by the end of December and stood at 92.12 points.
100 98 96 94 92 90
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
EUR/USD
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-16
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
1.23
Euro appreciated against the Dollar by 0.8%MoM and stood at 1.201EUR/USD.
1.19
1.15
1.11
1.07
1.03
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
USD/YUAN
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-16
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
6.950
YUAN appreciated by 1.5%MoM against the Dollar and stood at 6.507YUAN/USD.
6.850 6.750 6.650 6.550 6.450
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
USD/YEN
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-16
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
118
YEN depreciated by (0.1%MoM)against the Dollar and stood at 112.69YEN/USD.
116 114 112 110 108 106
6
Dec-16
Jan-17
© All rights reserved
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-16
RESEARCH DIVISION
Head of Research
RESEARCH DIVISION
BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION
Talha Nazar
Sultan Al Kadi, CAIA
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran
+966 11 2256250 [email protected]
+966 11 2256374 [email protected]
Analyst
Analyst
Waleed Al-jubayr
Muhanad Al-Odan
+966 11 2256146 [email protected]
+966 11 2256115 [email protected]
General Manager – Brokerage Services &
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment
sales
brokerage
Centers
Alaa Al-Yousef
Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Mansour Hamad Al-shuaibi
+966 11 2256060 [email protected]
+966 11 2256277 [email protected]
AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
+966 11 2256248 [email protected]
+966 12 6618443 [email protected]
Central Region
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
Abdullah Al-Rahit
+966 11 2256364 [email protected]
+966 16 3617547 [email protected]
AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1.
RATING TERMINOLOGY
Analyst
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
Disclaimer The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
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Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), license No. 07076-37
