Monthly Report - Aljazira Capital
Monthly Report
April 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | March 2018
Please read Disclaimer on the back
TASI ended the month at 7,870.87 points, a 6.1%MoM increase compared to February 2018 .Total value traded stood at SAR 87.55bn. Basic Materials and Banks sectors accounted for 57.6% of the total value traded. Food & Beverages and Materials were the best performing sectors, showing an increase of 12.2%MoM and 8.5%MoM respectively. While Commercial Services and REITs sectors were the worst performers showing a decline of 3.5%MoM and 2.8%MoM respectively. TASI index rose 8.9%YTD, while Dubai index declined 7.8%YTD.
TASI Movement During March
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
8,000
6.00
7,900
5.50 5.00
7,800
4.50
7,700
4.00
TASI started the month at 7,418.80 points and closed at 7,870.87 with an average daily value traded of SAR 4.17bn compared to SAR 3.39bn in February.
7,600 3.50 7,500
3.00
7,400
2.50 8-Mar-17
15-Mar-17
22-Mar-17
Value Traded(bn)-RHS
2.00
Real Estate
REITs
Utilities
Telecom
Insurance
Banks
Pharma & Bio Tech
Healthcare
Food & Beverages
Food & Staples
Retailing
Media
Consumer Services
Consumer Durables
Source:Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
Transportation
Commercial Service
Materials
Capital Goods
Energy
TASI
Sectors Performance 26.0% 23.0% 20.0% 17.0% 14.0% 11.0% 8.0% 5.0% 2.0% -1.0% -4.0% -7.0% -10.0% -13.0%
29-Mar-17
Closing Price - LHS
Diversified Financials
7,300 1-Mar-17
TASI increased 452.1 points (up 8.9%YTD). Media and Food & Stables sectors showed the highest YTD increase of 25.1% and 17.3% respectively. On other hand, REITs and Real Estate were the worst performing sectors recording a decline of 10.1% and 9.6% respectively.
YTD
MoM Performance
Value Traded per Sector (%)
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00%
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Others
Retailing
Energy
Capital Goods
Consumer Services
Food & Beverages
Insurance
Real Estate
Telecommunication Services
1
Banks
0.00%
Materials
5.00%
Basic Materials and Banks registered the highest traded values among the sectors, accounting for 30.31% and 27.28%, respectively, of total value traded in March. On the other hand, Pharma and Consumer Durables were the lowest, accounting for 0.10% and 0.42% respectively.
Monthly Report
April 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | March 2018
Please read Disclaimer on the back
GCC Market Performance
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
10.0%
On a Monthly basis, TASI was the best performing index, rising 6.1%MoM. Oman index was the worst performing index, a decline of 4.6%MoM.
8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%
TASI
Dubai (DFMGI)
Abu dahbi
Qatar
Monthly
Kuwait
Bahrain
Oman
YTD
Top/Worst Performing Companies
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
35.00%
15.00%
Companies with lowest PE
MALATH INSURANCE
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
10.00
8.22
8.24
8.37
8.52
8.55
AL-BABTAIN
Gulf Union
UCA
Saudi Electric.
Arabian Shield
9.00
WAFRAH
Salama
DERAYAH REIT
Al RAJHI REIT
Alujain
Budget Saudi
Petrochem
-25.00%
Dar Al Arkan
SSP
-5.00%
8.71
9.12
9.31
9.52
9.57
9.81
9.87
9.95
9.96
Buruj had the lowest P/E of 6.95x, followed by Al Babtain at 8.22x and Gulf Union at 8.24.
8.00 7.00
6.95
6.00
2
© All rights reserved
Trade Union
ARNB
SPIMACO
Zamil Indust
WALAA
ALTAYYAR
Solidarity
SAICO
saib
Buruj
5.00 4.00
SSP was the best performing stock in March recording an increase of 37.65%MoM followed by Dar AlArkan which showed an increase of 28.35%MoM. On the other hand, Malath Insurance was the worst performing stock recording a 17.46%MoM decline, followed by Wafrah which showed a decline of 15.68%MoM.
Monthly Report
April 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | March 2018
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Economic Data SAIBOR
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
2.500
3-month and 6-month SAIBOR ended the month at 2.270% and 2.449% respectively. The 3-month and 6-month SAIBOR showed a MoM increase of 18.5% and 15.8% respectively.
2.400 2.300 2.200 2.100 2.000 1.900 1.800 1.700
Feb-18
Jan-18
Dec-17
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
1.600
SAIBOR 6M
SAIBOR 3M
Inflation Rate
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
3.10% 2.60%
Saudi Arabia inflation rate stood at 2.9% at the end of February, a decrease from 3.0% in January.
2.10% 1.60% 1.10% 0.60% 0.10% -0.40% -0.90% Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Deposits & loans
Feb-18
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
5.5%
90%
4.0%
88%
2.5%
86%
1.0%
84%
Changes in Loans(LHS)
Changes In Deposits(LHS)
Feb-18
Nov-17
Aug-17
May-17
Feb-17
Nov-16
Aug-16
May-16
Feb-16
Nov-15
Aug-15
May-15
Feb-15
Nov-14
Aug-14
May-14
Feb-14
Nov-13
78%
Aug-13
80%
-3.5%
May-13
82%
-2.0%
Feb-13
-0.5%
ADR(RHS)
Change in Loans by Maturity (%)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
45.0%
16.0% 13.0%
30.0%
10.0% 7.0%
15.0%
4.0% 1.0%
0.0%
Less than 1 Year (%) -LHS
3
© All rights reserved
1 to 3 year (%) -LHS
Above 3 year (%) -LHS
Feb-18
Dec-17
Oct-17
Aug-17
Jun-17
Apr-17
Feb-17
Dec-16
Oct-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
-2.0% -15.0%
Deposits showed a decline of SAR 8.7bn (0.54%MoM), while loans showed an increase of SAR 0.50bn (0.04%MoM) by the end of February.
-5.0%
Total loan YoY Growth (%) -RHS
Total loans showed a decline of 0.6%YoY in February. The loans of maturity above 3 years showed a decline of 4.6%YoY. While, loans of maturity of 1-3 years and lonas of maturity less than 1 year showed an increase of 4.8%YoY and 0.1%YoY respectively.
Monthly Report
April 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | March 2018
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Other Deposits (LHS)
Feb-18
Oct-17
Feb-17
Feb-14
Time & Savings Deposits (LHS)
POS (Point of Sale)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital 74.0
19.0
64.0
17.0
54.0
SAR (Million)
21.0
Sales(bn) (LHS)
4
No. of Transactions (mn) (RHS)
Feb-18
Dec-17
Oct-17
Aug-17
Jun-17
Apr-17
Feb-17
Dec-16
Oct-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
24.0
Oct-15
11.0
Aug-15
34.0
Jun-15
13.0
Apr-15
44.0
Feb-15
15.0
© All rights reserved
Demand deposits showed a decline of SAR 16.55bn (1.6%MoM) in February, while Time & Saving deposits showed an increase of SAR 0.53bn 0.1%MoM. In addition, government deposits showed a decline of 2.2% MoM.
Government Deposits ( includes all types of deposits)(RHS)
SAR ('000)
Demand Deposit (LHS)
Jun-17
650
Oct-16
-60,000
Jun-16
850
Feb-16
-35,000
Oct-15
1050
Jun-15
-10,000
Feb-15
1250
Oct-14
15,000
Jun-14
1450
Oct-13
40,000
Jun-13
1650
SAR ('000)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
65,000
Feb-13
SAR (Million)
Change in Demand - Time and Saving Deposits
Point of sale showed a decline of 6.4%MoM in February and stood at SAR 15.4bn, with total number of transactions standing at 67.7mn (down 3.9%).
Monthly Report
April 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | March 2018
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Commodities Prices Oil Prices (USD) *
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
71
8 7
66
6
61
5 4
56
Brent and WTI showed an increase of 6.8%MoM and 5.4%MoM respectively, and closed at $70.3 and $64.9 respectively.
3
51
2
46
1
41
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Spread(RHS)
Oct-17
Brent(LHS)
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
0
Feb-18
WTI(LHS)
Gold & Silver (% Monthly change)
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
Changes in Gold Price(LHS)
Changes in Silver Price(LHS)
Copper
Gold and Silver showed an increase of 0.5%MoM and a decline of 0.3%MoM respectively, and closed the month at $1325.48 and $16.37 respectively.
Mar-18
Dec-17
Sep-17
Jun-17
Mar-17
Dec-16
Sep-16
Jun-16
Mar-16
Dec-15
Sep-15
Jun-15
50
Mar-15
55
-15.0%
Dec-14
60
-10.0%
Sep-14
65
-5.0%
Jun-14
70
0.0%
Mar-14
5.0%
Dec-13
75
Sep-13
80
10.0%
Jun-13
85
15.0%
Mar-13
20.0%
G/S Price (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
3.4
3.2
Copper showed a decline of 3.4%MoM and ended the month at 3.0255 USD/lb.
USD/Ib
3
2.8
2.6
2.4 Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Steel **
Jan-18
Mar-18
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
870
Steel showed an increase of 6.7%MoM and ended the month at 859 USD/ton.
820
USD/Ton
770 720 670 620 570 Mar-17
5
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
* May 2018 contract for Brent, April 2017 contract for WTI ** HRC1 Index
© All rights reserved
Monthly Report
April 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | March 2018
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Exchange Rate Dollar Index
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
104 102
Dollar Index showed a decline of 0.7%MoM by the end of March and stood at 89.97 points.
100 98 96 94 92 90
EUR/USD
Feb-18
Jan-18
Dec-17
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
86
May-17
88
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
1.28 1.25
Euro appreciated against the Dollar by 1.1%MoM and stood at 1.2324 EUR/USD.
1.22 1.19 1.16 1.13 1.1
USD/YUAN
Feb-18
Jan-18
Dec-17
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
1.04
Mar-17
1.07
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
7.000 6.900 6.800
YUAN appreciated by 0.9%MoM against the Dollar and stood at 6.276 YUAN/USD.
6.700 6.600 6.500 6.400
USD/YEN
Feb-18
Jan-18
Dec-17
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
6.200
Mar-17
6.300
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
116
YEN appreciated by 0.4%MoM against the Dollar and stood at 106.28 YEN/USD.
114 112 110 108
6
© All rights reserved
Feb-18
Jan-18
Dec-17
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
104
Mar-17
106
RESEARCH DIVISION
Head of Research
RESEARCH DIVISION
BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION
Talha Nazar
Sultan Al Kadi, CAIA
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran
+966 11 2256250 [email protected]
+966 11 2256374 [email protected]
Analyst
Analyst
Waleed Al-jubayr
Muhanad Al-Odan
+966 11 2256146 [email protected]
+966 11 2256115 [email protected]
General Manager – Brokerage Services &
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment
sales
brokerage
Centers
Alaa Al-Yousef
Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Mansour Hamad Al-shuaibi
+966 11 2256060 [email protected]
+966 11 2256277 [email protected]
AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
+966 11 2256248 [email protected]
+966 12 6618443 [email protected]
Central Region
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
Abdullah Al-Rahit
+966 11 2256364 [email protected]
+966 16 3617547 [email protected]
AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1.
RATING TERMINOLOGY
Analyst
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
Disclaimer The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
Asset Management | Brokerage | Corporate Finance | Custody | Advisory Head Office: King Fahad Road, P.O. Box: 20438, Riyadh 11455, Saudi Arabia، Tel: 011 2256000 - Fax: 011 2256068
Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), license No. 07076-37
April 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | March 2018
Please read Disclaimer on the back
TASI ended the month at 7,870.87 points, a 6.1%MoM increase compared to February 2018 .Total value traded stood at SAR 87.55bn. Basic Materials and Banks sectors accounted for 57.6% of the total value traded. Food & Beverages and Materials were the best performing sectors, showing an increase of 12.2%MoM and 8.5%MoM respectively. While Commercial Services and REITs sectors were the worst performers showing a decline of 3.5%MoM and 2.8%MoM respectively. TASI index rose 8.9%YTD, while Dubai index declined 7.8%YTD.
TASI Movement During March
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
8,000
6.00
7,900
5.50 5.00
7,800
4.50
7,700
4.00
TASI started the month at 7,418.80 points and closed at 7,870.87 with an average daily value traded of SAR 4.17bn compared to SAR 3.39bn in February.
7,600 3.50 7,500
3.00
7,400
2.50 8-Mar-17
15-Mar-17
22-Mar-17
Value Traded(bn)-RHS
2.00
Real Estate
REITs
Utilities
Telecom
Insurance
Banks
Pharma & Bio Tech
Healthcare
Food & Beverages
Food & Staples
Retailing
Media
Consumer Services
Consumer Durables
Source:Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
Transportation
Commercial Service
Materials
Capital Goods
Energy
TASI
Sectors Performance 26.0% 23.0% 20.0% 17.0% 14.0% 11.0% 8.0% 5.0% 2.0% -1.0% -4.0% -7.0% -10.0% -13.0%
29-Mar-17
Closing Price - LHS
Diversified Financials
7,300 1-Mar-17
TASI increased 452.1 points (up 8.9%YTD). Media and Food & Stables sectors showed the highest YTD increase of 25.1% and 17.3% respectively. On other hand, REITs and Real Estate were the worst performing sectors recording a decline of 10.1% and 9.6% respectively.
YTD
MoM Performance
Value Traded per Sector (%)
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00%
© All rights reserved
Others
Retailing
Energy
Capital Goods
Consumer Services
Food & Beverages
Insurance
Real Estate
Telecommunication Services
1
Banks
0.00%
Materials
5.00%
Basic Materials and Banks registered the highest traded values among the sectors, accounting for 30.31% and 27.28%, respectively, of total value traded in March. On the other hand, Pharma and Consumer Durables were the lowest, accounting for 0.10% and 0.42% respectively.
Monthly Report
April 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | March 2018
Please read Disclaimer on the back
GCC Market Performance
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
10.0%
On a Monthly basis, TASI was the best performing index, rising 6.1%MoM. Oman index was the worst performing index, a decline of 4.6%MoM.
8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%
TASI
Dubai (DFMGI)
Abu dahbi
Qatar
Monthly
Kuwait
Bahrain
Oman
YTD
Top/Worst Performing Companies
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
35.00%
15.00%
Companies with lowest PE
MALATH INSURANCE
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
10.00
8.22
8.24
8.37
8.52
8.55
AL-BABTAIN
Gulf Union
UCA
Saudi Electric.
Arabian Shield
9.00
WAFRAH
Salama
DERAYAH REIT
Al RAJHI REIT
Alujain
Budget Saudi
Petrochem
-25.00%
Dar Al Arkan
SSP
-5.00%
8.71
9.12
9.31
9.52
9.57
9.81
9.87
9.95
9.96
Buruj had the lowest P/E of 6.95x, followed by Al Babtain at 8.22x and Gulf Union at 8.24.
8.00 7.00
6.95
6.00
2
© All rights reserved
Trade Union
ARNB
SPIMACO
Zamil Indust
WALAA
ALTAYYAR
Solidarity
SAICO
saib
Buruj
5.00 4.00
SSP was the best performing stock in March recording an increase of 37.65%MoM followed by Dar AlArkan which showed an increase of 28.35%MoM. On the other hand, Malath Insurance was the worst performing stock recording a 17.46%MoM decline, followed by Wafrah which showed a decline of 15.68%MoM.
Monthly Report
April 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | March 2018
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Economic Data SAIBOR
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
2.500
3-month and 6-month SAIBOR ended the month at 2.270% and 2.449% respectively. The 3-month and 6-month SAIBOR showed a MoM increase of 18.5% and 15.8% respectively.
2.400 2.300 2.200 2.100 2.000 1.900 1.800 1.700
Feb-18
Jan-18
Dec-17
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
1.600
SAIBOR 6M
SAIBOR 3M
Inflation Rate
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
3.10% 2.60%
Saudi Arabia inflation rate stood at 2.9% at the end of February, a decrease from 3.0% in January.
2.10% 1.60% 1.10% 0.60% 0.10% -0.40% -0.90% Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Deposits & loans
Feb-18
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
5.5%
90%
4.0%
88%
2.5%
86%
1.0%
84%
Changes in Loans(LHS)
Changes In Deposits(LHS)
Feb-18
Nov-17
Aug-17
May-17
Feb-17
Nov-16
Aug-16
May-16
Feb-16
Nov-15
Aug-15
May-15
Feb-15
Nov-14
Aug-14
May-14
Feb-14
Nov-13
78%
Aug-13
80%
-3.5%
May-13
82%
-2.0%
Feb-13
-0.5%
ADR(RHS)
Change in Loans by Maturity (%)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
45.0%
16.0% 13.0%
30.0%
10.0% 7.0%
15.0%
4.0% 1.0%
0.0%
Less than 1 Year (%) -LHS
3
© All rights reserved
1 to 3 year (%) -LHS
Above 3 year (%) -LHS
Feb-18
Dec-17
Oct-17
Aug-17
Jun-17
Apr-17
Feb-17
Dec-16
Oct-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
-2.0% -15.0%
Deposits showed a decline of SAR 8.7bn (0.54%MoM), while loans showed an increase of SAR 0.50bn (0.04%MoM) by the end of February.
-5.0%
Total loan YoY Growth (%) -RHS
Total loans showed a decline of 0.6%YoY in February. The loans of maturity above 3 years showed a decline of 4.6%YoY. While, loans of maturity of 1-3 years and lonas of maturity less than 1 year showed an increase of 4.8%YoY and 0.1%YoY respectively.
Monthly Report
April 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | March 2018
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Other Deposits (LHS)
Feb-18
Oct-17
Feb-17
Feb-14
Time & Savings Deposits (LHS)
POS (Point of Sale)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital 74.0
19.0
64.0
17.0
54.0
SAR (Million)
21.0
Sales(bn) (LHS)
4
No. of Transactions (mn) (RHS)
Feb-18
Dec-17
Oct-17
Aug-17
Jun-17
Apr-17
Feb-17
Dec-16
Oct-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
24.0
Oct-15
11.0
Aug-15
34.0
Jun-15
13.0
Apr-15
44.0
Feb-15
15.0
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Demand deposits showed a decline of SAR 16.55bn (1.6%MoM) in February, while Time & Saving deposits showed an increase of SAR 0.53bn 0.1%MoM. In addition, government deposits showed a decline of 2.2% MoM.
Government Deposits ( includes all types of deposits)(RHS)
SAR ('000)
Demand Deposit (LHS)
Jun-17
650
Oct-16
-60,000
Jun-16
850
Feb-16
-35,000
Oct-15
1050
Jun-15
-10,000
Feb-15
1250
Oct-14
15,000
Jun-14
1450
Oct-13
40,000
Jun-13
1650
SAR ('000)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
65,000
Feb-13
SAR (Million)
Change in Demand - Time and Saving Deposits
Point of sale showed a decline of 6.4%MoM in February and stood at SAR 15.4bn, with total number of transactions standing at 67.7mn (down 3.9%).
Monthly Report
April 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | March 2018
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Commodities Prices Oil Prices (USD) *
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
71
8 7
66
6
61
5 4
56
Brent and WTI showed an increase of 6.8%MoM and 5.4%MoM respectively, and closed at $70.3 and $64.9 respectively.
3
51
2
46
1
41
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Spread(RHS)
Oct-17
Brent(LHS)
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
0
Feb-18
WTI(LHS)
Gold & Silver (% Monthly change)
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
Changes in Gold Price(LHS)
Changes in Silver Price(LHS)
Copper
Gold and Silver showed an increase of 0.5%MoM and a decline of 0.3%MoM respectively, and closed the month at $1325.48 and $16.37 respectively.
Mar-18
Dec-17
Sep-17
Jun-17
Mar-17
Dec-16
Sep-16
Jun-16
Mar-16
Dec-15
Sep-15
Jun-15
50
Mar-15
55
-15.0%
Dec-14
60
-10.0%
Sep-14
65
-5.0%
Jun-14
70
0.0%
Mar-14
5.0%
Dec-13
75
Sep-13
80
10.0%
Jun-13
85
15.0%
Mar-13
20.0%
G/S Price (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
3.4
3.2
Copper showed a decline of 3.4%MoM and ended the month at 3.0255 USD/lb.
USD/Ib
3
2.8
2.6
2.4 Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Steel **
Jan-18
Mar-18
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
870
Steel showed an increase of 6.7%MoM and ended the month at 859 USD/ton.
820
USD/Ton
770 720 670 620 570 Mar-17
5
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
* May 2018 contract for Brent, April 2017 contract for WTI ** HRC1 Index
© All rights reserved
Monthly Report
April 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | March 2018
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Exchange Rate Dollar Index
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
104 102
Dollar Index showed a decline of 0.7%MoM by the end of March and stood at 89.97 points.
100 98 96 94 92 90
EUR/USD
Feb-18
Jan-18
Dec-17
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
86
May-17
88
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
1.28 1.25
Euro appreciated against the Dollar by 1.1%MoM and stood at 1.2324 EUR/USD.
1.22 1.19 1.16 1.13 1.1
USD/YUAN
Feb-18
Jan-18
Dec-17
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
1.04
Mar-17
1.07
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
7.000 6.900 6.800
YUAN appreciated by 0.9%MoM against the Dollar and stood at 6.276 YUAN/USD.
6.700 6.600 6.500 6.400
USD/YEN
Feb-18
Jan-18
Dec-17
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
6.200
Mar-17
6.300
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
116
YEN appreciated by 0.4%MoM against the Dollar and stood at 106.28 YEN/USD.
114 112 110 108
6
© All rights reserved
Feb-18
Jan-18
Dec-17
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
104
Mar-17
106
RESEARCH DIVISION
Head of Research
RESEARCH DIVISION
BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION
Talha Nazar
Sultan Al Kadi, CAIA
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran
+966 11 2256250 [email protected]
+966 11 2256374 [email protected]
Analyst
Analyst
Waleed Al-jubayr
Muhanad Al-Odan
+966 11 2256146 [email protected]
+966 11 2256115 [email protected]
General Manager – Brokerage Services &
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment
sales
brokerage
Centers
Alaa Al-Yousef
Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Mansour Hamad Al-shuaibi
+966 11 2256060 [email protected]
+966 11 2256277 [email protected]
AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
+966 11 2256248 [email protected]
+966 12 6618443 [email protected]
Central Region
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
Abdullah Al-Rahit
+966 11 2256364 [email protected]
+966 16 3617547 [email protected]
AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1.
RATING TERMINOLOGY
Analyst
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
Disclaimer The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
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