monthly technical report - Aljazira Capital

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MONTHLY TECHNICAL REPORT March 01, 2015

The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the market, equities and commodities subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, no information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial and legal advice.

MONTHLY REPORT SAUDITECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY March 01, 2015 23 November 2014

TADAWUL: MONTHLY CHART – LONG-TERM VIEW

TADAWUL: DAILY CHART – SHORT-TERM VIEW

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Trend Overview: On the monthly charts, the index is still moving in uptrend since Q1-

On the Daily charts, the TASI is still trading above its upward sloping trend line, and

2009. The movement was ended in a bullish candlestick formation and above the

ended in a bearish small body candlestick formation, suggesting a strong resistance at

previous month’s candle, suggesting consolidation at current level. The monthly RSI

9340, which represents a historical bottom and the 10-day SMA resistance. The daily

has turned up above the (50) level, supporting this observation and indicating a mid-

RSI has turned flat and attempts to breach the negative divergence, suggesting the

term rise. Furthermore, it ended above the 20-month SMA for the first time since Nov-

index could start to positively reverse in the near term.

2014

Estimation: In the coming month, the index could face resistance at 9,650 and 10,230. Conversely, it could find support at 8,700 and 8,150.

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Estimation: The index could penetrate 9,350 and rise toward the last wave of the main corrective (B) wave 9,450 and 9,677 if it sustains above 9,350. in contrast, breakout below 9220 could end the mid-term upward path.

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MONTHLY REPORT SAUDITECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY March 01, 2015 23 November 2014

3004: NORTHERN REGION CEMENT COMPANY : BUY

TECHNICAL SUMMARY 

The stock ended at SAR 23.13



On the weekly charts, the stock ended in a bullish candlestick formation above

the

previous

two

tops,

suggesting

continued

rebound.

consolidation above the 20-week SMA supports the above observation.

in addition, The daily RSI has turned flat and attempts to breach the (50) level.



Traders could consider buying above SAR 23.15, with a stop loss of weekly close below SAR 22.80 and a target price of SAR 25.50. R1

R2

S1

S2

23.26

24.11

22.40

21.55

1150: ALINMA BANK : BUY 

The stock ended at SAR 23.31



On the weekly charts, the stock forms a bullish candlestick formation above the previous candle’s high, suggesting continued rebound. The RSI has turned up, supporting this observation and indicating a nearterm rise. It breached the downward sloping trend line, implying midterm bullishness is intact.



Traders could consider buying above SAR 23.30, with a stop loss of weekly close below SAR22.70 for a target price of SAR25.20

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R1

R2

S1

S2

24.39

25.75

23.03

21.68

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MONTHLY REPORT SAUDITECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY March 01, 2015 23 November 2014

4001: ABDULLAH AL OTHAIM MARKETS COMPANY : SELL

TECHNICAL SUMMARY 

The stock ended at SAR 104.62



On the weekly charts, it has break down the short upward sloping trend channel on the main sideway trend, suggesting the stock could decline in the coming sessions. The stock ended in a bearish candlestick

formation below the previous week close. The weekly RSI has also turned down corroborating the bearish bias on the stock.



Traders could consider selling below SAR106.50, with a target price of SAR98.25 R1

R2

S1

S2

107.23

112.14

102.32

97.42

4005: NATIONAL MEDICAL CARE COMPANY : BUY 

The stock ended at SAR 61.91



On the weekly charts, the stock is moving above the upward sloping trend line, and a bounce from here could result in near-term gains. The stock penetrated the 20-week SMA and ended in a bullish candlestick formation, indicating continued rebound. Furthermore, consolidation above SAR 60 (100% Fibo) supports the above observation.



Traders could consider buying above SAR61.90, with a stop loss of weekly close below SAR60.00 for a target price of SAR66.30

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R1

R2

S1

S2

63.42

67.46

59.39

55.36

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MONTHLY REPORT SAUDITECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY March 01, 2015 23 November 2014

2330: ADVANCED PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY : BUY

TECHNICAL SUMMARY 

The stock ended at SAR 47.02



On the weekly charts, it bounced back after taking support at the 38.2% retracement of the rise experienced in December 2014, indicating a rebound from current levels. it ended in a bullish candlestick formation,

indicating optimism and further upside potential in the near term. Furthermore, the stock is trading above the 10-week SMA, suggesting a positive near-term trend. 

Traders could consider buying above SAR46.50, with a stop loss of weekly close below SAR45.65 for a target price of SAR 51.75. R1

R2

S1

S2

49.61

52.88

46.34

43.07

2350: SAUDI KAYAN PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY : BUY 

The stock ended at SAR 12.65



On the weekly charts, the stock ended above the 20-week SMA and It forms a bullish candlestick formation, supporting the bullish bias on the

stock. The positive slope of the short-term indicates a rebound from current levels and further upside potential.



Traders could consider buying above SAR12.60, with a stop loss of weekly close below SAR12.45 for a target price of SAR14.00

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R1

R2

S1

S2

13.05

14.00

12.10

11.20

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MONTHLY REPORT SAUDITECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY March 01, 2015 23 November 2014

COMMODITY ANALYSIS: BRENT OIL MAY RISE TO $72.13 IN H2-2015

TECHNICAL SUMMARY 

The index ended at $62.58



On the Monthly charts, the price is moving in the last corrective wave (C) of a three-wave cycle (A), (B) and (C).



The index found support near the 200% Fibonacci

projection

($48.58)

and

ended in a bullish candlestick above the previous month, indicating a mid-term rebound. 

RSI has started rising to breakout the oversold level, supporting the optimistic view on the commodity. The last tow bullish candlestick formation indicates a likely pause in the strong downtrend.



The index ended in a weekly bullish candlestick

pattern,

suggesting

optimism and further upside potential toward $63.40 - $67.70 in the near term and could decline to $53.80 before going again to $72.13 at the H2-2015.

Source: Bloomberg

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MONTHLY REPORT SAUDITECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY March 01, 2015 23 November 2014

COMMODITY ANALYSIS: BRENT OIL MAY RISE TO $63.40 – $67.70 IN THE NEAR TERM.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY 

The index ended at $62.58



On the Daily charts, the price is moving at the end of the first bullish wave (1) of the five-waves cycle (1), (2), (3), (4)

and (5). 

The near term uptrend remains intact for the index. It ended in a daily close above the previous seasons, indicating a short-term gains.



The RSI in buy mode corroborates the bullish bias, suggesting optimism and further upside potential toward $63.40 $67.70 in the near term.



On the Other side, Any breakout below $59.10 could open the way towards the next support at $53.80.

Source: Bloomberg

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MONTHLY REPORT SAUDITECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY March 01, 2015 23 November 2014

COMMODITY ANALYSIS: SPOT GOLD TO DECLINE INTO A RANGE OF 1180.50 – 956.70 IN 2015

TECHNICAL SUMMARY 

The index ended at $1213.18



On the Weekly charts, the price is moving in the first wave (A) of a threewave cycle that developed from Sep-

2011 high of $1921. A detailed study on the structure of the wave (A) suggests a maximum fall toward $956.70 

On the daily chart, the index found support at the upward sloping trend line, and a bounce from here could

result in near-term gains at maximum $1235, and then is likely to resume declining toward the first target of $1180.50. 

breakout above $1290 could take the index higher in the medium term and

defeat the scenario outlined in the chart.

Source: Bloomberg

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MONTHLY REPORT SAUDITECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY March 01, 2015 23 November 2014

COMMODITY ANALYSIS: DOLLAR INDEX TO RISE TO 99.73 IN MEDIUM-TERM.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY 

The index ended at 95.29



On the Monthly charts, the price is moving in the second corrective wave ((B)) that developed from March 2008

low of 70.96. A detailed study on the structure of the uncompleted

wave

((B)) shows upward breakout from the combinations “double

of

threes“,

corrective suggesting

patterns further

upside toward 99.73 in the Mid-term.



The monthly RSI is moving above the overbought level (70), supporting the cautious view on the index. However, the short-term moving average 10month SMA crosses the longer-term average 20-month SMA from below, supporting the bullish bias on the index.



Despite above, the index ended in a monthly Bearish tweezers top pattern, suggesting to re-test the level of 93.97 in the short-term before any further upside..

Source: Bloomberg

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SAUDI TECHNICAL WEEKLY 23 November 2014

AGM - Head of Research

Senior Analyst

Analyst

Abdullah Alawi

Syed Taimure Akhtar

Sultan Al Kadi

+966 11 2256250

+966 11 2256146

+966 11 2256374

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

Senior Analyst

Analyst

Talha Nazar

Jassim Al-Jubran

+966 11 2256115

+966 11 2256248

[email protected]

[email protected]

General Manager - Brokerage Division

AGM - Head of International and Institutional Brokerage

Regional Manager - West and South Regions

Ala’a Al-Yousef +966 11 2256000

Luay Jawad Al-Motawa

+966 12 6618400

[email protected]

+966 11 2256277

[email protected]

Research Division

[email protected]

Brokerage And Investment Centers Division

Abdullah Al-Misbahi

Sales And Investment Centers Central Region

Area Manager - Qassim & Eastern Province

AGM - Head of Institutional Brokerage

Manager

Abdullah Al-Rahit

Samer Al-Jaouni

Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa

+966 16 3617547

+966 11 2256364

[email protected]

+966 11 225 6352 [email protected]

[email protected]

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SAUDI TECHNICAL WEEKLY 23 November 2014

Disclaimer The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by AlJazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but AlJazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.

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