Planalytics GreenReport 04092015
Green Produced in collaboration with TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc. Issued: April 9, 2015
Vegetation Index Greenness Map Period 14: March 24 – April 6, 2015 GREENNESS VALUES
40°F 40°F 50°F
3
50°F
Low Biomass
1 2
2015 2012
High Biomass
Water Clouds/Snow
1) Due to the ongoing dryness and warmth that has been occurring across the Western Corn Belt this spring, some folks have been comparing this year’s start to the season with 2012. Not so fast…
weeks, but there is a significant difference as you travel east of the Mississippi: case in point… the distance between extreme northern IL and extreme southern IL, not to mention the distance between Lansing, MI and Louisville, KY. With this setup, the Northwest Corn Belt is poised for early planting…and the eastern belt is likely headed to a “normal” start or later for some.
Note the position of the 2012 50°F soil temperature contour across the entire Corn Belt (dashed red line). In early April 2012 the contour was positioned across southern MI, then just north of Rockford, IL, across southern 2) The dashed green line across the southern MN, and finally across the southern half of ND. U.S. from west central TX up into MO and then At the start of April 2015, the dashed black line east across KY depicts the western and representing 50°F is positioned along the northern extent of the onset of Greenness. lower Ohio River Valley, south of Cairo, IL South and east of this line is where deciduous before it follows the Missouri Valley up through vegetation is showing signs of greening up…or MO, eastern NE, and then across SD. developing. Meanwhile, a very wet March and early April has most of these same “green” No doubt there will be early planting in the areas far behind their five year average corn Plains states and even IA and MN in coming planting progress. Specifically… TX is at 37%
planted against 50% for both last year and the five year average. LA is at 67% planted versus 89% last year, and 93% five year average; MS is at 34% planted versus 39% last year, and 57% five year average; AR is at 27% planted versus 24% last year and a 43% five year average; AL is at 16% planted versus 26% last year and 32% five year average. Bottom line: any early planting in the Northwest Corn Belt is being offset somewhat by the late planting in the South… quite unlike 2012. 3) The onset of Greenness (dashed green line) shows vegetation’s response to prolonged warmer temperatures across CA, OR, and WA. However, the ongoing and intensifying drought remains the underlying problem for agriculture out West.
7 Day Forecast Above normal temperatures (see temperature graphic to the right) are expected to prevail across the Midwest and Deep South over the next week. This suggests that soil temperatures will become even more favorable for planting (and emergence) of corn… at least in those areas where producers can access their fields!.
High Temperatures vs. Normal April 8 – 14, 2015
The 7 day forecasted rainfall of 3 to 5+ inches is projected from eastern TX across the Deep South and up into the Middle Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys. This will create even more planting delays for these areas. Severe thunderstorms and local deluges of rainfall will also be on the upswing. Meanwhile, the Western Corn Belt states receive some beneficial rainfall while also seeing 4 to 5 days of suitable weather for field work between precipitation events. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Forecast Rainfall (Inches) April 9 – 15, 2015
Green Produced in collaboration with TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc.
Vegetation Index Greenness Map Period 14: March 24 – April 6, 2015 COMPARED TO NORMAL
COMPARED TO LAST WEEK
DIFFERENCE IN PLANT BIOMASS (NDVI) VALUES Increased Greenness
Little or no change
Decreased Greenness
Compared to Last Week
Water Snow/ Clouds
Compared to Normal
FINALLY… signs of spring in our weekly comparison. The large area of increased Greenness in the Southeast shows deciduous vegetation and grasses responding to favorable soil temperatures and adequate to surplus moisture. The main problem here is that it has been too wet for planting and other field work.
Decreased Greenness compared to the 26 year average blankets northwest Mexico and much of southern California. And it is all drought related. Look for these areas to get worse as the drought intensifies. Water restrictions for CA could further add to future pockets of decreased Greenness.
Between March 25th and the 31st, high temperatures climbed into the 90s and low 100s across northwest Mexico. At the same time, high temperatures for much of CA were in the upper 70s and upper 80s, except for some 90s in the Desert South. The decreased Greenness week-to-week is vegetation’s response to this temperature pattern as well as the intensification of the drought.
The pockets of decreased Greenness in central KS and the TX Panhandle show where a combination of drought and winter kill has portions of the winter wheat crop and range grasses in trouble. Also, note the areas of increased Greenness across the eastern portions of TX and OK. These areas are showing better than average conditions in the vegetation. The Drought Monitor issued on April 7th (below left) also depicts how quickly the vegetation goes from “no problems” to Exceptional Drought (D-4) as you move from east to west across TX..
Snow occurred in the CO Rockies as well as northern ND this past week. This may be sending mixed signals on the NDVI values, however. Increased Greenness could be the result of pre-storm accumulation values… or melting of existing snow. Drought Monitor April 7, 2015
Pockets of decreased Greenness along the Ohio Valley and lower Mississippi Valley pinpoint late planted areas and the absence of emerged crops that are normally present at this time of year.. . .
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Vegetation Index Greenness Map Period 14: March 24 – April 6, 2015 GREENNESS VALUES
40°F 40°F 50°F
3
50°F
Low Biomass
1 2
2015 2012
High Biomass
Water Clouds/Snow
1) Due to the ongoing dryness and warmth that has been occurring across the Western Corn Belt this spring, some folks have been comparing this year’s start to the season with 2012. Not so fast…
weeks, but there is a significant difference as you travel east of the Mississippi: case in point… the distance between extreme northern IL and extreme southern IL, not to mention the distance between Lansing, MI and Louisville, KY. With this setup, the Northwest Corn Belt is poised for early planting…and the eastern belt is likely headed to a “normal” start or later for some.
Note the position of the 2012 50°F soil temperature contour across the entire Corn Belt (dashed red line). In early April 2012 the contour was positioned across southern MI, then just north of Rockford, IL, across southern 2) The dashed green line across the southern MN, and finally across the southern half of ND. U.S. from west central TX up into MO and then At the start of April 2015, the dashed black line east across KY depicts the western and representing 50°F is positioned along the northern extent of the onset of Greenness. lower Ohio River Valley, south of Cairo, IL South and east of this line is where deciduous before it follows the Missouri Valley up through vegetation is showing signs of greening up…or MO, eastern NE, and then across SD. developing. Meanwhile, a very wet March and early April has most of these same “green” No doubt there will be early planting in the areas far behind their five year average corn Plains states and even IA and MN in coming planting progress. Specifically… TX is at 37%
planted against 50% for both last year and the five year average. LA is at 67% planted versus 89% last year, and 93% five year average; MS is at 34% planted versus 39% last year, and 57% five year average; AR is at 27% planted versus 24% last year and a 43% five year average; AL is at 16% planted versus 26% last year and 32% five year average. Bottom line: any early planting in the Northwest Corn Belt is being offset somewhat by the late planting in the South… quite unlike 2012. 3) The onset of Greenness (dashed green line) shows vegetation’s response to prolonged warmer temperatures across CA, OR, and WA. However, the ongoing and intensifying drought remains the underlying problem for agriculture out West.
7 Day Forecast Above normal temperatures (see temperature graphic to the right) are expected to prevail across the Midwest and Deep South over the next week. This suggests that soil temperatures will become even more favorable for planting (and emergence) of corn… at least in those areas where producers can access their fields!.
High Temperatures vs. Normal April 8 – 14, 2015
The 7 day forecasted rainfall of 3 to 5+ inches is projected from eastern TX across the Deep South and up into the Middle Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys. This will create even more planting delays for these areas. Severe thunderstorms and local deluges of rainfall will also be on the upswing. Meanwhile, the Western Corn Belt states receive some beneficial rainfall while also seeing 4 to 5 days of suitable weather for field work between precipitation events. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Forecast Rainfall (Inches) April 9 – 15, 2015
Green Produced in collaboration with TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc.
Vegetation Index Greenness Map Period 14: March 24 – April 6, 2015 COMPARED TO NORMAL
COMPARED TO LAST WEEK
DIFFERENCE IN PLANT BIOMASS (NDVI) VALUES Increased Greenness
Little or no change
Decreased Greenness
Compared to Last Week
Water Snow/ Clouds
Compared to Normal
FINALLY… signs of spring in our weekly comparison. The large area of increased Greenness in the Southeast shows deciduous vegetation and grasses responding to favorable soil temperatures and adequate to surplus moisture. The main problem here is that it has been too wet for planting and other field work.
Decreased Greenness compared to the 26 year average blankets northwest Mexico and much of southern California. And it is all drought related. Look for these areas to get worse as the drought intensifies. Water restrictions for CA could further add to future pockets of decreased Greenness.
Between March 25th and the 31st, high temperatures climbed into the 90s and low 100s across northwest Mexico. At the same time, high temperatures for much of CA were in the upper 70s and upper 80s, except for some 90s in the Desert South. The decreased Greenness week-to-week is vegetation’s response to this temperature pattern as well as the intensification of the drought.
The pockets of decreased Greenness in central KS and the TX Panhandle show where a combination of drought and winter kill has portions of the winter wheat crop and range grasses in trouble. Also, note the areas of increased Greenness across the eastern portions of TX and OK. These areas are showing better than average conditions in the vegetation. The Drought Monitor issued on April 7th (below left) also depicts how quickly the vegetation goes from “no problems” to Exceptional Drought (D-4) as you move from east to west across TX..
Snow occurred in the CO Rockies as well as northern ND this past week. This may be sending mixed signals on the NDVI values, however. Increased Greenness could be the result of pre-storm accumulation values… or melting of existing snow. Drought Monitor April 7, 2015
Pockets of decreased Greenness along the Ohio Valley and lower Mississippi Valley pinpoint late planted areas and the absence of emerged crops that are normally present at this time of year.. . .
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
