Planalytics TMAI Wheat Yield Forecast 05222015
Green Produced in collaboration with TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc.
Wheat Yield Forecast Period 5: May 20, 2015 This is the fifth round of ASD, state, and national-level Winter Wheat Crop Yield Forecasts for 2015. These forecasts were generated using seven consecutive biweekly normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) composite images covering the conterminous U.S. at 1-km pixel resolution. The NDVI composites are generated at EROS Data Center using data acquired by the AVHRR sensor on the NOAA-19 satellite during the period from February 10 – May 18, 2015. Models were constructed using 26 years (1989-2014) of historical EROS AVHRR NDVI data and corresponding USDA final estimated crop yield data. All trend yields are 26-year linear projections corresponding with the period of record for the satellite database.
YIELD (BU/AC)
Region
Avg. Harv. Acres (2005-2014)
AL AZ AR CA CO DE FL GA ID IL IN IA KS KY LA MD MI MN MS MO MT NE NV NJ NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA SC SD TN TX UT VA WA WV WI WY
151,100 5,300 464,000 316,500 2,133,000 64,800 11,800 226,200 735,000 756,000 387,500 19,300 8,720,000 391,500 201,000 183,000 583,000 39,900 243,800 757,500 2,145,000 1,555,000 8,800 26,300 166,000 98,500 603,000 417,500 777,500 3,645,000 767,000 155,000 178,300 1,389,000 330,000 2,710,000 121,000 219,000 1,708,000 5,900 265,000 129,200
US
% of U.S. Production Trend Yield Production Rank (1989-2014) (2005-2014)
0.64% 0.03% 1.67% 1.66% 4.69% 0.29% 0.04% 0.76% 3.91% 3.10% 1.72% 0.06% 21.53% 1.73% 0.74% 0.80% 2.74% 0.13% 0.93% 2.57% 5.83% 4.34% 0.06% 0.09% 0.33% 0.40% 2.20% 1.30% 3.43% 6.93% 3.08% 0.61% 0.59% 4.23% 1.34% 5.49% 0.37% 0.93% 7.24% 0.02% 1.16% 0.26%
33,810,200 100.00%
Last Year's Yield (2014)
TMAI/KARS Forecast (3/25/15)
TMAI/KARS Forecast (4/8/15)
TMAI/KARS Forecast (4/22/15)
TMAI/KARS USDA TMAI/KARS Forecast Forecast Forecast (5/6/15) (5/12/15) (5/20/15)
28 41 18 19 6 34 40 26 9 11 17 38 1 16 27 25 13 36 24 14 4 7 39 37 33 31 15 21 10 3 12 29 30 8 20 5 32 23 2 42 22 35
67.2 82.9 60.3 80.1 33.4 71.3 50.4 53.3 84.3 66.3 71.9 54 39.7 71.8 62.4 69.6 78.1 51.7 63.2 56 41.6 45.2 106.3 55.7 31.6 64.7 56.7 50.9 71.6 29.3 59.4 63.1 51 49.6 65.8 30.6 48.4 66.5 66.5 60.8 71.3 30.6
69 100 63 80 38 72 39 49 80 67 76 49 28 71 62 70 74 49 58 58 41 49 110 53 28 63 58 49 74 17 55 65 52 55 66 30 50 68 52 64 65 38
63.9 81.9 58.1 87.6 35.2 65.7 43.6 48.8 84.2 62.2 66.6 49.4 36.8 67.8 54.1 64.8 74.9 51.7 58 52.1 43.8 43.8 102.5 50.8 31.3 62.5 52.6 50.9 66.7 26.8 61.3 61.3 48.1 49.3 63 30 48.1 61.7 67.6 57.2 68.5 32
64.2 83.4 57.9 84.9 34.5 64.8 44.2 48.6 84.7 62.5 66.5 51.2 35.4 67.1 54.6 63.7 75.3 52.9 57.7 52.7 44.4 43 104.1 49.6 32.3 61.6 51.6 52.5 67 26.2 60.6 60.7 47.9 47.8 62.7 30.7 48.7 61.2 66.3 56.7 71.1 32.9
64.8 85.1 59.6 87.1 34.7 66 45.7 49.5 84.4 63.5 67.8 51.3 34.7 67.8 56.4 65.3 76.7 53.2 58.9 54.4 44.3 42.5 106.6 50.5 33.5 61.8 52 53.3 67.9 25.8 60.2 60.9 48.3 46.9 64.2 31 48.4 62.7 66.1 56.1 72.7 33.3
67.1 84.1 60.2 85.6 34.4 67 46.4 51.5 83 64.7 69.6 52.1 34.2 69.8 57.3 66.3 76.5 53.3 59.3 55.6 43.3 42 104 50.7 34 61.7 54.2 52.9 68.4 26.5 59 61.5 49.7 44.3 65.7 32 47.5 63.8 65.1 56.2 72.3 32.6
----61 70 37 ----53 81 67 74 --32 70 --64 76 --57 60 41 40 ------64 56 51 70 29 56 65 52 44 69 35 --71 63 --71 ---
66.9 83.2 61 82.4 34.7 67.6 46.4 52 82.1 65.8 71.4 51.8 34.6 70.2 57.2 66.1 77 52.5 59.1 59 42.4 41.5 102.3 51.7 34 62.5 54.9 52 69.2 28 57.7 62.8 50.8 44.4 67.2 33.3 47.4 64.9 64.6 56.1 71.6 31.7
---
47.4
42.6
45.4
44.9
44.9
44.8
43.5
44
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
TMAI/KARS USDA TMAI/KARS Forecast Forecast Forecast (6/3/15) (6/10/15) (6/17/15)
TMAI/KARS USDA USDA Forecast Forecast Forecast (7/1/15) (7/10/15) (8/12/15)
USDA Small Grains Summary (9/30/15)
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Green Produced in collaboration with TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc.
Wheat Yield Forecast Period 5: May 20, 2015 TOP 10 WINTER WHEAT STATES
YIELD (bu/ac)
CHANGE vs LAST FCST
CHANGE vs TREND
Kansas
34.6
+0.4
5.1 below
Washington
64.6
-0.5
1.9 below
Oklahoma
28.0
+1.5
1.3 below
Montana
42.4
-0.9
0.8 above
Texas
33.3
+1.3
2.7 above
Colorado
34.7
+0.3
1.3 above
Nebraska
41.5
-0.5
3.7 below
South Dakota
44.4
+0.1
5.2 below
Idaho
82.1
-0.9
2.2 below
Ohio
69.2
+0.8
2.4 below
U.S.
44.0
-0.8
3.4 below
OBSERVATIONS •Planalytics satellite Greenness-based estimate for the US winter wheat crop declined 0.8 bu/ac from our previous forecast released two weeks ago, and now sits at 44.0 bu/ac. This value is 3.4 bu/ac below the trend yield of 47.4 bu/ac. Our current projection is 0.9 bu/ac lower than the 10-year US average (44.9) and 1.9 bu/ac lower than the 5-year average (45.9). •The USDA released their first survey-based winter wheat crop yield forecasts last week, with the US estimate coming in at 43.5 bu/ac. Our current US estimate is just 0.5 bu/ac above USDA, reflecting good agreement on the overall status of the crop •After witnessing a steady decline of KS winter wheat crop potential all Spring due to drought, winterkill, and disease, for the first time this season we saw our KS forecast increase by 0.4 bu/ac. This crop recovery is due entirely to the recent widespread and abundant precipitation, with most of the state receiving 2+” over the last two weeks. •According to the UNL Drought Monitor, drought conditions (along with winter wheat yield prospects) for TX and OK have improved greatly with the wet weather pattern that has been anchored over the area since mid-April. However, with the crop near the finish line, now the biggest concern for the TX & OK winter wheat crops is getting a break from the rain so that the crop can dry out and be harvested. SUMMARY For the most part, our forecasts are in good agreement with the USDA May projections and current crop conditions. While abundant rainfall over the last month has greatly improved drought conditions in TX & OK, winter wheat prospects are beginning to take a downturn as fields reach maturity but wet conditions keep the combines out of the fields and allow the crop to deteriorate. The near-term weather outlook suggests no clear break from the rain for the Southern Great Plains, with the up-trending winter wheat market already reacting to the situation. An improving KS crop could be in the same boat if the rainy pattern persists into June. Sub-par winter wheat conditions in NE & SD have stabilized with the recent rain. Precipitation is most needed with the PNW and MT-ID crops, but the outlook is not exceptionally promising. Recent dryness has winter wheat fields developing smoothly in the Midwest, the Ohio River basin, and the South, with favorable conditions generally expected to continue across these regions through the end of the month.
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
MAP 1: Mid-MAY Compared to Previous Forecast
MAP 2: Mid-MAY Compared to 2014 Final Yield
MAP 3: Mid-May Compared to Trend Yield
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Wheat Yield Forecast Period 5: May 20, 2015 This is the fifth round of ASD, state, and national-level Winter Wheat Crop Yield Forecasts for 2015. These forecasts were generated using seven consecutive biweekly normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) composite images covering the conterminous U.S. at 1-km pixel resolution. The NDVI composites are generated at EROS Data Center using data acquired by the AVHRR sensor on the NOAA-19 satellite during the period from February 10 – May 18, 2015. Models were constructed using 26 years (1989-2014) of historical EROS AVHRR NDVI data and corresponding USDA final estimated crop yield data. All trend yields are 26-year linear projections corresponding with the period of record for the satellite database.
YIELD (BU/AC)
Region
Avg. Harv. Acres (2005-2014)
AL AZ AR CA CO DE FL GA ID IL IN IA KS KY LA MD MI MN MS MO MT NE NV NJ NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA SC SD TN TX UT VA WA WV WI WY
151,100 5,300 464,000 316,500 2,133,000 64,800 11,800 226,200 735,000 756,000 387,500 19,300 8,720,000 391,500 201,000 183,000 583,000 39,900 243,800 757,500 2,145,000 1,555,000 8,800 26,300 166,000 98,500 603,000 417,500 777,500 3,645,000 767,000 155,000 178,300 1,389,000 330,000 2,710,000 121,000 219,000 1,708,000 5,900 265,000 129,200
US
% of U.S. Production Trend Yield Production Rank (1989-2014) (2005-2014)
0.64% 0.03% 1.67% 1.66% 4.69% 0.29% 0.04% 0.76% 3.91% 3.10% 1.72% 0.06% 21.53% 1.73% 0.74% 0.80% 2.74% 0.13% 0.93% 2.57% 5.83% 4.34% 0.06% 0.09% 0.33% 0.40% 2.20% 1.30% 3.43% 6.93% 3.08% 0.61% 0.59% 4.23% 1.34% 5.49% 0.37% 0.93% 7.24% 0.02% 1.16% 0.26%
33,810,200 100.00%
Last Year's Yield (2014)
TMAI/KARS Forecast (3/25/15)
TMAI/KARS Forecast (4/8/15)
TMAI/KARS Forecast (4/22/15)
TMAI/KARS USDA TMAI/KARS Forecast Forecast Forecast (5/6/15) (5/12/15) (5/20/15)
28 41 18 19 6 34 40 26 9 11 17 38 1 16 27 25 13 36 24 14 4 7 39 37 33 31 15 21 10 3 12 29 30 8 20 5 32 23 2 42 22 35
67.2 82.9 60.3 80.1 33.4 71.3 50.4 53.3 84.3 66.3 71.9 54 39.7 71.8 62.4 69.6 78.1 51.7 63.2 56 41.6 45.2 106.3 55.7 31.6 64.7 56.7 50.9 71.6 29.3 59.4 63.1 51 49.6 65.8 30.6 48.4 66.5 66.5 60.8 71.3 30.6
69 100 63 80 38 72 39 49 80 67 76 49 28 71 62 70 74 49 58 58 41 49 110 53 28 63 58 49 74 17 55 65 52 55 66 30 50 68 52 64 65 38
63.9 81.9 58.1 87.6 35.2 65.7 43.6 48.8 84.2 62.2 66.6 49.4 36.8 67.8 54.1 64.8 74.9 51.7 58 52.1 43.8 43.8 102.5 50.8 31.3 62.5 52.6 50.9 66.7 26.8 61.3 61.3 48.1 49.3 63 30 48.1 61.7 67.6 57.2 68.5 32
64.2 83.4 57.9 84.9 34.5 64.8 44.2 48.6 84.7 62.5 66.5 51.2 35.4 67.1 54.6 63.7 75.3 52.9 57.7 52.7 44.4 43 104.1 49.6 32.3 61.6 51.6 52.5 67 26.2 60.6 60.7 47.9 47.8 62.7 30.7 48.7 61.2 66.3 56.7 71.1 32.9
64.8 85.1 59.6 87.1 34.7 66 45.7 49.5 84.4 63.5 67.8 51.3 34.7 67.8 56.4 65.3 76.7 53.2 58.9 54.4 44.3 42.5 106.6 50.5 33.5 61.8 52 53.3 67.9 25.8 60.2 60.9 48.3 46.9 64.2 31 48.4 62.7 66.1 56.1 72.7 33.3
67.1 84.1 60.2 85.6 34.4 67 46.4 51.5 83 64.7 69.6 52.1 34.2 69.8 57.3 66.3 76.5 53.3 59.3 55.6 43.3 42 104 50.7 34 61.7 54.2 52.9 68.4 26.5 59 61.5 49.7 44.3 65.7 32 47.5 63.8 65.1 56.2 72.3 32.6
----61 70 37 ----53 81 67 74 --32 70 --64 76 --57 60 41 40 ------64 56 51 70 29 56 65 52 44 69 35 --71 63 --71 ---
66.9 83.2 61 82.4 34.7 67.6 46.4 52 82.1 65.8 71.4 51.8 34.6 70.2 57.2 66.1 77 52.5 59.1 59 42.4 41.5 102.3 51.7 34 62.5 54.9 52 69.2 28 57.7 62.8 50.8 44.4 67.2 33.3 47.4 64.9 64.6 56.1 71.6 31.7
---
47.4
42.6
45.4
44.9
44.9
44.8
43.5
44
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
TMAI/KARS USDA TMAI/KARS Forecast Forecast Forecast (6/3/15) (6/10/15) (6/17/15)
TMAI/KARS USDA USDA Forecast Forecast Forecast (7/1/15) (7/10/15) (8/12/15)
USDA Small Grains Summary (9/30/15)
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Green Produced in collaboration with TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc.
Wheat Yield Forecast Period 5: May 20, 2015 TOP 10 WINTER WHEAT STATES
YIELD (bu/ac)
CHANGE vs LAST FCST
CHANGE vs TREND
Kansas
34.6
+0.4
5.1 below
Washington
64.6
-0.5
1.9 below
Oklahoma
28.0
+1.5
1.3 below
Montana
42.4
-0.9
0.8 above
Texas
33.3
+1.3
2.7 above
Colorado
34.7
+0.3
1.3 above
Nebraska
41.5
-0.5
3.7 below
South Dakota
44.4
+0.1
5.2 below
Idaho
82.1
-0.9
2.2 below
Ohio
69.2
+0.8
2.4 below
U.S.
44.0
-0.8
3.4 below
OBSERVATIONS •Planalytics satellite Greenness-based estimate for the US winter wheat crop declined 0.8 bu/ac from our previous forecast released two weeks ago, and now sits at 44.0 bu/ac. This value is 3.4 bu/ac below the trend yield of 47.4 bu/ac. Our current projection is 0.9 bu/ac lower than the 10-year US average (44.9) and 1.9 bu/ac lower than the 5-year average (45.9). •The USDA released their first survey-based winter wheat crop yield forecasts last week, with the US estimate coming in at 43.5 bu/ac. Our current US estimate is just 0.5 bu/ac above USDA, reflecting good agreement on the overall status of the crop •After witnessing a steady decline of KS winter wheat crop potential all Spring due to drought, winterkill, and disease, for the first time this season we saw our KS forecast increase by 0.4 bu/ac. This crop recovery is due entirely to the recent widespread and abundant precipitation, with most of the state receiving 2+” over the last two weeks. •According to the UNL Drought Monitor, drought conditions (along with winter wheat yield prospects) for TX and OK have improved greatly with the wet weather pattern that has been anchored over the area since mid-April. However, with the crop near the finish line, now the biggest concern for the TX & OK winter wheat crops is getting a break from the rain so that the crop can dry out and be harvested. SUMMARY For the most part, our forecasts are in good agreement with the USDA May projections and current crop conditions. While abundant rainfall over the last month has greatly improved drought conditions in TX & OK, winter wheat prospects are beginning to take a downturn as fields reach maturity but wet conditions keep the combines out of the fields and allow the crop to deteriorate. The near-term weather outlook suggests no clear break from the rain for the Southern Great Plains, with the up-trending winter wheat market already reacting to the situation. An improving KS crop could be in the same boat if the rainy pattern persists into June. Sub-par winter wheat conditions in NE & SD have stabilized with the recent rain. Precipitation is most needed with the PNW and MT-ID crops, but the outlook is not exceptionally promising. Recent dryness has winter wheat fields developing smoothly in the Midwest, the Ohio River basin, and the South, with favorable conditions generally expected to continue across these regions through the end of the month.
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
MAP 1: Mid-MAY Compared to Previous Forecast
MAP 2: Mid-MAY Compared to 2014 Final Yield
MAP 3: Mid-May Compared to Trend Yield
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
