Property Development Industry Update
Neutral
April 10, 2015
Take‐up rates fell as leading developers held back launches
Share data (Property Development) SET index
1,545.11
Sector index
292.74
52‐week high
326.12
52‐week low
252.23
Market capitalization (Bt m)
997,679.17
% of market cap
6.88
Avg daily turnover (m shares)
3,840.34
Beta
1.44
Sector Performance (%) Absolute Relative
1M
3M
12M
‐1.48
‐1.42
10.09
‐2.36
‐2.41
‐0.11
Wasu Mattanapotchanart Analyst, no 44357
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6268
Unit presales dropped in Bangkok, but listed developers made a comeback with high‐end condos Bangkok’s residential market hit a low point in terms of both new launches and unit presales in 1Q15 on the back of the low season of launches by big players. Despite the low season, big developers saw a small rebound in 1Q15 presales from the slowdown in 4Q14. We believe that stronger presales lie ahead as firms become much more active in launching new projects, and we remain confident in our 8.6% growth for 15E presales. Maintain Neutral with SPALI as our top pick. Quiet market in 1Q15, but… 1Q15 new launches in Bangkok totaled only 22,193 units, down from 26,717 units in 1Q14 and 29,488 units in 4Q14. This is because listed developers rarely launched new projects during the quarter, except a few super‐luxury condos. The take‐up rate of the new launches was also low at 21.0% in 1Q15 (1Q14: 45.5%, 4Q14: 31.9%). …listed developers’ 1Q15 presales rose both YoY and QoQ We have received presales data from 10 developers under our coverage, and they had combined 1Q15 presales of Bt52.7bn (+53.1% YoY, +2.3% QoQ). Despite minimal new launches, these firms managed to grow the value of presales on the back of i.) solid presales of existing projects and ii.) well‐received soft launches of luxury condos (e.g., Saladaeng One, Q Sukhumvit, Ashton Chula – Silom and Ashton Residence 41). Developers to be more active with launches in 2Q15 Except QH (Buy, Bt4.74 TP), which soft‐launched Q Sukhumvit (Bt9.7bn) in 1Q15, all developers are expected to be more active with their launches, starting in 2Q15. Also, most developers will have back‐loaded launches toward 2H15. Bright presales prospects ahead; household debt only a threat to low‐end market Despite being the low season, 1Q15 presales for listed developers turned out to be strong, and we expect further improvement going forward, making our forecast of 8.6% growth achievable. Although the latest household debt figure increased further to 85.9% in 4Q14, we see this mainly as a risk to the very low‐end market (Bt290k
QH
Ashton Chula ‐ Silom
8,700
65.4%
Bt208k
ANAN
Ashton Residence 41
1,800
100.0%
Bt235k
ANAN
Saladaeng One
3,700
22.7%
>Bt290k
SC
Source: Company data, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 5
Figure 5: Quarterly presales by company
Low‐rise properties
High‐rise properties
1Q15
YoY
QoQ
YoY
QoQ
YoY
QoQ
LH
5,708
‐13.0%
3.5%
‐15.7%
10.7%
0.0%
‐19.9%
PS
12,761
55.7%
64.5%
37.0%
30.6%
110.2%
232.5%
LPN
3,650
7.7%
‐5.1%
33.3%
33.3%
8.2%
‐10.3%
SPALI
3,200
‐20.0%
‐42.0%
‐12.0%
‐15.2%
‐29.3%
‐60.3%
QH
4,800
12.7%
‐0.8%
9.1%
‐15.5%
25.0%
106.5%
SIRI
3,214
1325.9%
‐59.8%
34.4%
40.6%
n.a.
9700%
AP
4,645
114.6%
‐10.5%
31.3%
10.4%
‐687.3%
‐36.3%
SC
2,700
130.6%
12.3%
45.1%
‐23.7%
723.3%
164.7%
PF
2,725
16.0%
‐6.0%
35.6%
14.7%
‐11.9%
‐32.6%
ANAN
9,355
336.7%
67.4%
Total
52,758
53.1%
2.3%
‐8.7%
14.6%
497.1%
73.0%
Source: Company data, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 6: Take‐up rate of new launches in Bangkok
Figure 7: Take‐up rate of new CD launches in Bangkok
Source: AREA, KT ZMICO Research
Source: AREA, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 8: Take‐up rate of new SDH launches in Bangkok
Figure 9: Take‐up rate of new TH launches in Bangkok
Source: AREA, KT ZMICO Research
Source: AREA, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 5
Figure 10: Peer comparison
Ticker Price TP (Local) LH TB Equity 9.75 10.30 PS TB Equity 30.0 35.00 SPALI TB Equity 22.0 28.25 QH TB Equity 3.84 4.74 LPN TB Equity 18.4 23.70 SIRI TB Equity 1.92 1.97 AP TB Equity 7.35 7.60 SC TB Equity 3.88 3.92 PF TB Equity 1.09 1.17 ANAN TB Equity 3.82 4.28 AVERAGE
Rating Mkt Cap (US$m) Underperform 3,504 Underperform 2,056 Buy 1,160 Buy 1,084 Buy 834 Outperform 842 Outperform 711 Outperform 443 Sell 194 Underperform 391
Norm. profit growth (%) 14 15E 16E 24.0 ‐20.7 10.5 14.3 11.2 7.7 55.4 19.7 ‐2.0 4.1 8.8 18.6 ‐14.7 53.3 13.0 38.8 ‐50.2 ‐93.2 18.1 7.7 8.6 ‐320.8 ‐985.2 ‐189.5 1161.1 59.2 18.4 54.8 ‐21.9 84.0
Norm. PER (x) 14 15E 16E 11.9 15.0 13.6 10.0 8.9 8.3 7.7 6.4 6.5 10.6 9.7 8.2 13.0 8.5 7.5 7.0 7.3 7.2 8.5 7.9 7.3 8.9 7.9 7.2 19.3 16.2 13.7 10.0 13.2 7.2 10.7 10.1 8.7
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 5
Yield (%) 14 15E 6.7 4.0 3.4 3.4 5.0 5.5 1.8 1.6 4.6 5.9 6.6 6.6 3.7 4.2 5.7 5.1 0.7 0.7 2.5 1.9 4.1 3.9
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market return over six months period because of specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to below market return over six months period because of specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 5
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