Singer Thailand Buy (16E TP Bt14.90)
Company Update
Close Bt11.50
Commerce
Earnings upgrade/ Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
November 16, 2015
Disappointing 3Q15 earnings Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY15
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.943
1.157
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐29%
‐17.9%
Reuters / Bloomberg
FY16
SINGER.BK/SINGER TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
270.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
3.00/86.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/1.27
52 week High / Low (Bt)
16.30/10.40
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
1,246.00
NVDR (%)
5.70
Estimated free float (%)
59.97
Beta
0.97
URL
www.singerthai.co.th
CGR
Level 2 (Declared)
Anti‐corruption
Waraporn Wiboonkanarak Analyst, no. 2482
[email protected] Earnings downgrade, but BUY maintained We view that SINGER will benefit from the government’s new stimulus package aimed at helping rural consumers who have been hard hit by the sluggish economy and low farm prices. However, we cut the 2015E‐ 2016E NP to reflect the weaker‐than‐expected 3Q15 results. We also roll our 2016E target price to Bt14.90 (GGM model). Thus, our BUY rating is maintained. Disappointing 3Q15 earnings SINGER posted a net profit of only Bt11mn (EPS: Bt0.04) in 3Q15, decreasing 77%YoY and 81%QoQ on a lower top line. Total revenue fell 12%YoY to Bt793mn mainly due to 12%YoY lower product sales on most products. This included mobile handset sales in the amount of Bt22mn, representing 3% of product sales. SINGER’s stricter credit approvals, particularly for high‐value commercial products, dragged the interest from hire purchase contract sales down by 13%YoY. The higher proportion of home appliance sales (55% of total sales from 41%) pushed the gross margin down to 51.4% (flat QoQ). Its NPLs ratio increased to 6.8% from 6.1% in 2Q15. Focused strategy We expect that the government’s recent new stimulus package directly targeting the rural economy may shore up spending sentiment albeit at a slower pace given high household debts and SINGER’s stricter credit approval policy. SINGER continues to adjust its strategy in a bid to increase sales. Apart from developing the existing products to serve customers’ needs, service‐fee based revenue on top of its commercial products is expanding. SINGER has introduced a direct payment system in a bid for cost savings and a reduction of fraud risk. 2015E‐2016E earnings forecasts downgraded With the lower‐than‐expected NP in 3Q15 and the expected slow pace of recovery, we trimmed the 2015E‐2016E earnings forecasts by 29% and 11%, respectively. This is mainly due to a lower sales forecast in combination with higher SG&A expenses.
Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2013 3,627 321 1.19 42% 0.45 5.30 2013 15.50 12.71 3.47 2.4% 24.4% 65.9%
2014 3,427 241 0.89 ‐25% 0.53 5.84 2014 14.20 11.12 2.17 4.2% 16.0% 48.6%
2015E 3,458 180 0.67 ‐26% 0.40 5.98 2015E 17.27 11.54 1.92 3.5% 11.3% 22.4%
66 (0) 2624‐6273 REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
2016E 3,746 258 0.95 43% 0.57 6.53 2016E 12.05 8.63 1.76 5.0% 15.2% 18.8%
2017E 4,184 324 1.20 26% 0.48 7.16 2017E 9.59 6.67 1.61 4.2% 17.5% 4.9%
Figure 1: Earnings review Profit and Loss Statement (Btmn) Fiscal Year‐Ended Dec. 3Q14 Revenue 889 Gross profit 478 SG&A (405) EBITDA 80 Interest expense (15) Other income 1 Income tax (12) 47 Net profit (loss) Normalized profit (loss) 47 Reported EPS (Bt) 0.17 Gross margin 53.7% EBITDA margin 9.0% Net margin 5.3% Current ratio (x) 2.56 Interest coverage (x) 4.99 Debt to equity (x) 1.22 BVPS 5.66 ROE 17.8%
2Q15 981 505 (430) 87 (13) 5 (13) 55 55 0.21 51.4% 8.9% 5.7% 2.03 6.43 1.24 5.70 11.6%
3Q15 793 408 (385) 33 (13) 3 (3) 11 11 0.04 51.4% 4.1% 1.3% 1.52 2.04 1.25 5.74 9.0%
%QoQ ‐19.2% ‐19.2% ‐10.4% ‐62.4% 1.7% ‐44.8% ‐79.1% ‐80.9% ‐80.9% ‐80.9%
%YoY ‐10.7% ‐14.6% ‐4.9% ‐59.1% ‐13.1% 323.9% ‐77.4% ‐77.4% ‐77.4% ‐77.4%
9M15 2,639 1,370 (1,205) 198 (39) 11 (26) 114 114 0.42 51.9% 7.5% 4.3% 1.52 4.59 1.25 1.4% 5.74 9.0%
0.7%
%YoY ‐4.4% ‐8.4% 0.6% ‐39.0% ‐13.1% 60.7% ‐41.1% ‐47.4% ‐47.4% ‐47.4%
2015E 3,458 1,811 (1,549) 301 (54) 12 (39) 180 180 0.67 52.4% 8.7% 5.2% 2.50 5.05 1.00 1.4% 5.98 11.3%
YTD %YoY (%2015E) 0.9% 76.3% 0.1% 75.7% 5.3% 77.8% ‐20.4% 66.0% ‐7.2% 71.9% ‐6.1% 98.5% ‐22.6% 65.5% ‐25.5% 63.4% ‐25.5% 63.4% ‐25.5% 63.4%
2.3%
Source: The Company and KT Zmico Research
Figure 2: Earnings revision Ended Dec Revenue (Btmn) EBITDA (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) % growth Core profit (Btmn) % growth Core EPS (Bt) Core EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) SG&A exp to sales (%)
Previous 3,608 397 252 4.6% 252 4.6% 0.93 4.6% 52.4% 42.5%
2015E New 3,458 301 180 ‐25.5% 180 ‐25.5% 0.67 ‐25.5% 52.4% 44.8%
%chg ‐4.1% ‐24.3% ‐28.8% ‐30.1% ‐28.8% ‐30.1% ‐28.8% ‐30.1% ‐0.1% 2.3%
Previous 3,930 437 289 14.4% 289 14.4% 1.07 14.4% 52.1% 42.3%
2016E New 3,746 398 258 43.3% 258 43.3% 0.95 43.3% 52.0% 42.7%
%chg ‐4.7% ‐8.9% ‐10.8% 28.9% ‐10.8% 28.9% ‐10.8% 28.9% ‐0.1% 0.4%
Source: KT Zmico Research Figure 3: PER and PBV band
PBV (x) 6.0
30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00
+3 S.D.
5.0
PER (x) +2.0SD
+2 S.D.
4.0
+1.0SD
3.0
+1 S.D.
2.0
Average
10.00 5.00
‐0.5SD
‐
1.0
(5.00)
‐0.5SD
(10.00)
Source: KT Zmico Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Sep‐15
Sep‐14
Aug‐13
Aug‐12
Jul‐10
Aug‐11
Jul‐09
Apr‐08
Apr‐07
Mar‐06
Feb‐05
Jan‐04
Jan‐03
Sep‐15
Sep‐14
Aug‐13
Aug‐12
Jul‐10
Aug‐11
Jul‐09
Apr‐08
Apr‐07
Mar‐06
Jan‐04
Feb‐05
Jan‐03
Jan‐02
(15.00)
Jan‐02
0.0
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, KBS, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, CPI . KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, PLE, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY, TFG, BRR. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of SCI, SR, J, TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.