weathercall na loy15
July 2017
Issued: July 31, 2017
Western Warmth Drove Seasonal Demand. Cooler East Aided Outdoor Activities. Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) Category Notables Wiper Blades
USA +5%
Lawn Fertilizers
USA +5%
Favorable
Iced Beverages
USA -2%
Shorts
Unfavorable
CAN +3%
WDDs represent the estimated % change in demand of the product / category based purely on the year-over-year changes in weather.
Consumer Impact
Weather Notables
• A cooler trend to LY in eastern and southern markets aided consumers’ ability to tackle outdoor home improvement projects and lawn/garden maintenance, as extreme summer heat can force consumers inside, curtailing these activities. Weather drove a national sales gain of $512 million for DIY/Home Centers vs. last July. Demand for outdoor lawn and garden categories saw a 27% lift along the Gulf Coast, and demand for lawn mowers was up 15% YOY in the Northeast.
• July 2017 in the U.S. averaged slightly cooler than LY, although warmer vs. normal. Conditions were wettest since 2013 driven by precipitation in the East and Southwest.
• Nationally, favorable weather added $79 million to Apparel Store sales compared to LY. A much warmer YOY trend in the West resulted in strong comps for summer apparel and consumables. Demand for shorts was up 10% in Portland, OR, and 3% in San Diego. • A cooler trend in the East challenged YOY demand for heat driven categories with suncare down 9% in Houston and down 11% in Detroit. Although averaging cooler than LY for the month, the Northeast experienced a late month heat wave, which led to surging demand for summer consumables. • Increased precipitation in eastern markets depressed restaurant traffic levels for the month, with weather bringing a $506 million decline to restaurants vs. last July. Conditions dampened traffic by 3% to 6% in markets such as Jacksonville, Charleston, Baltimore, and Boston.
• Slightly cooler than LY conditions were focused in the East and South. Coolest anomalies were felt in the New England region which had its coolest July since 2009. • Warmer vs. LY readings were confined to the West. The Mountain region was warmest for July since 2003, the West North Central region since 2012, and the Pacific region since 2014. • The East North Central region was wettest since 2011; the West South Central region since 2013. The Northeast, MidAtlantic, and South Atlantic regions were all wettest since 2014. • Canada recorded its coolest July since 2009, with all major markets cooler vs. LY. Nationally, it was driest since 2012, with wetter weather vs. LY focused in the East. July Temperature vs. LY
July Precipitation vs. LY
• Independence Day (7/4/2017) in the U.S. was warmest since 2012 and driest since 2014.
Retail Traffic WDD by Segment
Weather Impacted Foot Traffic
Estimated impact of weather on foot traffic by retail segment
Estimated impact of weather on foot traffic at
Apparel Outlets Home Centers Fashion Apparel Restaurants
+0.7% +0.6% +0.2% -1.0%
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc.
+1.5%
AutoZone, Inc..
+1.0%
American Eagle Outfitters
+0.1%
Ruby Tuesday, Inc.
-1.1%
From the Board Room “Warmth across western markets aided retailers working to move through summer goods. While seasonal demand lagged in the East, the cooler trend benefited consumers looking to get outside and work on summer projects.” — Scott Bernhardt, President Planalytics © 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
July Temperature & Precipitation Notables United States Cooler vs. LY; Wettest Since 2013 Canada Coolest Since 2009; Driest Since 2012 2009-Boston, Halifax, Montreal; 2013Coolest Since Orlando; 2014-Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, New York City, Memphis, New Orleans 55+ Years-Miami, Salt Lake City; 2006-Los Warmest Since Angeles, Sacramento; 2007-Calgary; 2012Denver, Kansas City, Oklahoma City, St. Louis 2003-Orlando; 2004-Cincinnati; 2005Wettest Since Baltimore; 2009-Boston, New York City, Ottawa; 2010-Houston; 2011-Chicago 2005-Calgary; 2009-Raleigh; 2010Driest Since Richmond, Vancouver; 2012-St. Louis Click To View Weekly Detail > www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
Issued: July 31, 2017
Western Warmth Drove Seasonal Demand. Cooler East Aided Outdoor Activities. Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) Category Notables Wiper Blades
USA +5%
Lawn Fertilizers
USA +5%
Favorable
Iced Beverages
USA -2%
Shorts
Unfavorable
CAN +3%
WDDs represent the estimated % change in demand of the product / category based purely on the year-over-year changes in weather.
Consumer Impact
Weather Notables
• A cooler trend to LY in eastern and southern markets aided consumers’ ability to tackle outdoor home improvement projects and lawn/garden maintenance, as extreme summer heat can force consumers inside, curtailing these activities. Weather drove a national sales gain of $512 million for DIY/Home Centers vs. last July. Demand for outdoor lawn and garden categories saw a 27% lift along the Gulf Coast, and demand for lawn mowers was up 15% YOY in the Northeast.
• July 2017 in the U.S. averaged slightly cooler than LY, although warmer vs. normal. Conditions were wettest since 2013 driven by precipitation in the East and Southwest.
• Nationally, favorable weather added $79 million to Apparel Store sales compared to LY. A much warmer YOY trend in the West resulted in strong comps for summer apparel and consumables. Demand for shorts was up 10% in Portland, OR, and 3% in San Diego. • A cooler trend in the East challenged YOY demand for heat driven categories with suncare down 9% in Houston and down 11% in Detroit. Although averaging cooler than LY for the month, the Northeast experienced a late month heat wave, which led to surging demand for summer consumables. • Increased precipitation in eastern markets depressed restaurant traffic levels for the month, with weather bringing a $506 million decline to restaurants vs. last July. Conditions dampened traffic by 3% to 6% in markets such as Jacksonville, Charleston, Baltimore, and Boston.
• Slightly cooler than LY conditions were focused in the East and South. Coolest anomalies were felt in the New England region which had its coolest July since 2009. • Warmer vs. LY readings were confined to the West. The Mountain region was warmest for July since 2003, the West North Central region since 2012, and the Pacific region since 2014. • The East North Central region was wettest since 2011; the West South Central region since 2013. The Northeast, MidAtlantic, and South Atlantic regions were all wettest since 2014. • Canada recorded its coolest July since 2009, with all major markets cooler vs. LY. Nationally, it was driest since 2012, with wetter weather vs. LY focused in the East. July Temperature vs. LY
July Precipitation vs. LY
• Independence Day (7/4/2017) in the U.S. was warmest since 2012 and driest since 2014.
Retail Traffic WDD by Segment
Weather Impacted Foot Traffic
Estimated impact of weather on foot traffic by retail segment
Estimated impact of weather on foot traffic at
Apparel Outlets Home Centers Fashion Apparel Restaurants
+0.7% +0.6% +0.2% -1.0%
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc.
+1.5%
AutoZone, Inc..
+1.0%
American Eagle Outfitters
+0.1%
Ruby Tuesday, Inc.
-1.1%
From the Board Room “Warmth across western markets aided retailers working to move through summer goods. While seasonal demand lagged in the East, the cooler trend benefited consumers looking to get outside and work on summer projects.” — Scott Bernhardt, President Planalytics © 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
July Temperature & Precipitation Notables United States Cooler vs. LY; Wettest Since 2013 Canada Coolest Since 2009; Driest Since 2012 2009-Boston, Halifax, Montreal; 2013Coolest Since Orlando; 2014-Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, New York City, Memphis, New Orleans 55+ Years-Miami, Salt Lake City; 2006-Los Warmest Since Angeles, Sacramento; 2007-Calgary; 2012Denver, Kansas City, Oklahoma City, St. Louis 2003-Orlando; 2004-Cincinnati; 2005Wettest Since Baltimore; 2009-Boston, New York City, Ottawa; 2010-Houston; 2011-Chicago 2005-Calgary; 2009-Raleigh; 2010Driest Since Richmond, Vancouver; 2012-St. Louis Click To View Weekly Detail > www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
