FlashWeather 2015 0406
LAST WEEK: March 29, 2015 – April 4, 2015 (Retail Week 9 / March Week 5) Eggcellent! The Warmest End to March Since 2012 and Driest in 20 Years Supported Seasonal Demand as Well as Foot Traffic Into Retailers and Restaurants. Severe Weather Continued in the Southern Plains.
PRECIPITATION (Inches) Period of Record: Mar 29 2015 to Apr 4 2015
Retail Foot Traffic WDD (Actuals for last 6 weeks. Outlook for next 2 weeks.)
City
2015
2014 Change Normal
2015
2014 Change Normal
Bismarck, ND
44.4
29.0
15.4
37.8
Birmingham, AL
1.83
0.34
1.49
1.62
Pierre, SD
48.8
33.3
15.4
42.3
Atlanta, GA
1.26
0.00
1.26
1.06
+2.0%
Billings, MT
48.4
35.3
13.2
41.8
Omaha, NE
1.10
0.19
0.91
0.66
+1.0%
Des Moines, IA
55.4
43.6
11.8
49.9
Little Rock, AR
0.96
0.09
0.87
1.18
Las Vegas, NV
70.9
59.2
11.7
64.2
Charleston, WV
1.92
1.14
0.78
0.87
Pittsburgh, PA
44.0
47.9
-3.9
48.0
Indianapolis, IN
0.46
2.50
-2.04
0.92
Richmond, VA
55.1
59.0
-4.0
56.5
Portland, ME
0.19
2.67
-2.48
1.28
Charlotte, NC
57.3
62.9
-5.6
59.0
Boston, MA
0.42
3.16
-2.74
1.54
Charleston, SC
62.0
67.7
-5.7
65.0
Harrisburg, PA
0.43
3.31
-2.88
1.01
Raleigh, NC
55.4
61.5
-6.1
59.0
St. Louis, MO
0.93
4.83
-3.90
0.99
• Last year was the coldest 5th week of March since 2007 with the most rainfall since 2009. Snowfall was well above normal and the most since 2007. Easter Sunday was the warmest since 2011 with below normal rain. • Warmer Than LY, but Cooler Than Normal. It was the warmest end to March since 2012, driven by the West. Calgary was warmest since 2004, Edmonton since 2010. Cool conditions were focused in the East. Quebec City had its coldest final week of March since 1969 and Halifax was coldest since 1984. • Cold and Dry Easter. Good Friday was colder and drier than LY and normal. Easter Sunday was the coldest since 2008 and driest since 2010. • Rain and Snow Were Less Than LY and Normal. Rain and snowfall totals were limited for most markets. Exceptions included Quebec City which had its wettest end to March since 2010; Edmonton since 2012. MEAN TEMPERATURE (°C) PRECIPITATION (mm) Period of Record: Mar 29 2015 to Apr 4 2015 Period of Record: Mar 29 2015 to Apr 4 2015 2015
2014 Change Normal
City
2015
2014 Change Normal
Edmonton
2.8
-7.3
10.1
-0.7
Edmonton
15
2
13
2
Calgary
5.0
-3.3
8.3
0.9
Vancouver
27
21
6
23
Winnipeg
0.7
-6.1
6.8
0.0
Quebec City
23
19
4
20
Vancouver
9.1
8.1
1.0
7.4
Winnipeg
5
6
-1
10
Toronto
3.4
2.9
0.5
5.0
Toronto
10
15
-5
18
Ottawa
1.2
1.4
-0.1
4.0
Calgary
1
6
-5
5
Montreal
1.1
1.4
-0.3
4.3
Montreal
19
33
-14
20
Quebec City
-4.5
-1.8
-2.7
1.4
Ottawa
10
26
-15
22
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
+2.7% +2.4% +2.2%
+3.0%
+1.9%
+0.6% +0.3%
+0.0%
-1.0% -2.0%
18-Apr
4-Apr
28-Mar
11-Apr
-2.0%
-2.5%
21-Mar
-3.0%
14-Mar
Canada Summary and Callouts
City
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
28-Feb
City
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
7-Mar
MEAN TEMPERATURE (°F) Period of Record: Mar 29 2015 to Apr 4 2015
Compared to the Same Week Last Year
Temperature
• Holiday Weekend Review: The holiday weekend began with the warmest Good Friday since 2011. A volatile storm system moved into the Northeast on Saturday, leaving snow in the eastern Great Lakes and New England. Heavy rain and thunderstorms moved across the Deep South. Temperatures in the Midwest and Northeast were near normal. Cooler than normal temperatures blanketed the West Coast, while warmer than normal temperatures returned to the Great Plains. Wetter and cooler than normal conditions moved into the Pacific Northwest over the weekend. • Easter Recap. Easter Sunday was the coldest since 2008 with below normal rain. • Last year the U.S. had its warmest end to March since 2012 with the most rainfall since 2011. Snowfall exceeded normal levels due to a mid-week storm in the upper Midwest, Rockies, and interior Northeast. The Easter holiday weekend last year (4/18 – 4/20) was mostly warm and dry, but began with record cold in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic for Good Friday. Easter Sunday was the warmest since 2011 with below normal rain. • Warmth Focused in the Central and Western Regions. Last week was the warmest final week of March since 2012, driven by the western two-thirds of the U.S. The central regions had their warmest final week of March since 2012. Dallas and Oklahoma City were warmest since 2001. Further west, Phoenix and Seattle were each warmest in over 55 years, while LA was the warmest since 1988, supporting demand for spring apparel. • A Cooler Week Than LY For Much of the East Coast. While the western U.S. was warm, the Northeast, MidAtlantic, and South Atlantic regions were all colder than LY. Cooler markets included Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Atlanta, all of which experienced soft demand for seasonal categories compared to LY. • Driest End to March in 20 Years. Rainfall was 51% below last year and well below normal. In a week where the Governor of California made water conservation mandatory throughout the state, the Pacific region had its driest end to March since 2008. The Mountain region was driest since 1966. • Severe Weather Continued in the South. Last week, there were 500 severe weather reports, including over 20 tornadoes and 250 accounts of hail. Severe weather was focused in the South Central region, and supported demand for emergency preparedness as well as clean-up items as the season continued to ramp up.
Precipitation
U.S. Summary and Callouts
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product/category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather.
LAWN FERTILIZER North America +9% Detroit +9% Baltimore +5% Seattle +5% Atlanta -6%
SANDALS North America +8% Las Vegas +27% New Orleans +16% Toronto +12% New York City +3%
SUNGLASSES North America +4% San Francisco +23% St. Louis +9% Dallas +3% Pittsburgh -6%
RESTAURANT TRAFFIC North America +2% Sacramento +14% Los Angeles +10% Chicago +3% Charlotte -3%
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
THIS WEEK: April 5, 2015 – April 11, 2015 (Retail Week 10 / April Week 1)
Play Ball! April’s Opening Week is a Hit for Many Markets in Need of Warmer Temperatures. The West Will Cool Down and Receive Some Welcomed Rain. Canada Remains Cool.
Temperature
• This week last year, the U.S. had the warmest first week of retail April since 2002, driven by record heat in the West. Rainfall was near normal while snowfall was well below normal. Canada was warmer than normal with above normal rainfall but below normal snowfall. • Spring Temperatures Becoming More Widespread. Very warm spring temperatures will extend from the Central and Southern Plains to the East Coast. High temperatures will rise into the 70s and 80s across these regions. Most of the area will also be warmer to much warmer than last year and normal, aiding demand for spring apparel, cold drinks, and lawn care businesses. • The Southeast and Texas Stay Warm. The Southeast and Texas will experience warmth, with most markets reaching the high 70s mid-week, trending above last year and normal. • A Cooler Start for the North. Cooler air will hold on across Canada and the far northern U.S. into New England for much of the week and then gradually warm up from west to east. Expect 30s and 40s early week then 40s and 50s for late week. By Thursday and Friday, temperatures across the region will flip from cooler to warmer than last year, bolstering seasonal demand leading into the weekend. • Western Regions Cool Down. The long spell of unseasonably warm weather will end this week as temperatures cooler than normal and last year push through the West and out into the Great Plains. Highs will slip into the 60s and 70s across California while mid 40s to low 60s overspread the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West. • Rain From Sea to Shining Sea. A pair of storm systems will cause heavy showers from the central U.S. into the East. Temperatures remain cold enough across the north to turn rain to snow from the Northern Plains to northern New England. Meanwhile, periods of rain are expected to move ashore in the West with rain reaching as far south as the Los Angeles basin. While welcomed, the rain will have little impact on the long-term drought in the West. • Sever Weather Potential. As severe weather season ramps up, the greatest threats are from the Plains to the Mid-South for mid to late week. • Canada Dry (and Cool). Spring temperatures hold off as western Canada cools down and eastern markets remain colder than LY. Despite cooler temperatures, conditions will trend drier than LY and normal, supporting foot traffic.
Precipitation
This Week Outlook & Callouts
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
(Maps compare to the same week last year)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Pest Control: +3%
Fishing Gear: +2%
Tees: +2%
Lawn Tools (Canada): -18%
More Favorable Similar Less Favorable
NEXT WEEK: April 12, 2015 – April 18, 2015 (Retail Week 11 / April Week 2)
After a Taxing Winter, Many Warm Returns! Warmer Temperatures Will Envelop Most of the U.S. and Canada, Supporting Seasonal Businesses. April Showers and Severe Weather Threats Continue.
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
Precipitation
• The U.S had its coolest 2nd week of April since 2009 with above normal rainfall. Snowfall was well above normal, driven by the East North Central and Northeast regions. Canada was the coldest since 2000, and the wettest since 1999. Note that this was also the run-up week to Easter. • Spring Sales to Soar. It's time to put winter in the rear view mirror for good as spring warmth will burst forth across the continent. Areas near the West Coast will be a bit cooler than LY, but the rest of North America will average above to well above last year and normal providing ideal conditions for a lift in demand of seasonal items. • More Rain From the West to the Plains. A storm will bring rain and mountain snow to the western U.S. while rain and thunderstorms will develop over the central U.S. early in the week. Rain will expand into the Northeast late in the week. • Canada Warms up Too! Temperatures will be warmer than last year and normal for most Canadians which will drive demand for spring categories. The exception will be along the west coast of Canada where temperatures will trend slightly below LY and normal throughout the week.
Temperature
Next Week Outlook & Callouts
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
(Maps compare to the same week last year)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Pool Chemicals: +11%
Tees (Canada): +19%
More Favorable Similar Less Favorable
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
PRECIPITATION (Inches) Period of Record: Mar 29 2015 to Apr 4 2015
Retail Foot Traffic WDD (Actuals for last 6 weeks. Outlook for next 2 weeks.)
City
2015
2014 Change Normal
2015
2014 Change Normal
Bismarck, ND
44.4
29.0
15.4
37.8
Birmingham, AL
1.83
0.34
1.49
1.62
Pierre, SD
48.8
33.3
15.4
42.3
Atlanta, GA
1.26
0.00
1.26
1.06
+2.0%
Billings, MT
48.4
35.3
13.2
41.8
Omaha, NE
1.10
0.19
0.91
0.66
+1.0%
Des Moines, IA
55.4
43.6
11.8
49.9
Little Rock, AR
0.96
0.09
0.87
1.18
Las Vegas, NV
70.9
59.2
11.7
64.2
Charleston, WV
1.92
1.14
0.78
0.87
Pittsburgh, PA
44.0
47.9
-3.9
48.0
Indianapolis, IN
0.46
2.50
-2.04
0.92
Richmond, VA
55.1
59.0
-4.0
56.5
Portland, ME
0.19
2.67
-2.48
1.28
Charlotte, NC
57.3
62.9
-5.6
59.0
Boston, MA
0.42
3.16
-2.74
1.54
Charleston, SC
62.0
67.7
-5.7
65.0
Harrisburg, PA
0.43
3.31
-2.88
1.01
Raleigh, NC
55.4
61.5
-6.1
59.0
St. Louis, MO
0.93
4.83
-3.90
0.99
• Last year was the coldest 5th week of March since 2007 with the most rainfall since 2009. Snowfall was well above normal and the most since 2007. Easter Sunday was the warmest since 2011 with below normal rain. • Warmer Than LY, but Cooler Than Normal. It was the warmest end to March since 2012, driven by the West. Calgary was warmest since 2004, Edmonton since 2010. Cool conditions were focused in the East. Quebec City had its coldest final week of March since 1969 and Halifax was coldest since 1984. • Cold and Dry Easter. Good Friday was colder and drier than LY and normal. Easter Sunday was the coldest since 2008 and driest since 2010. • Rain and Snow Were Less Than LY and Normal. Rain and snowfall totals were limited for most markets. Exceptions included Quebec City which had its wettest end to March since 2010; Edmonton since 2012. MEAN TEMPERATURE (°C) PRECIPITATION (mm) Period of Record: Mar 29 2015 to Apr 4 2015 Period of Record: Mar 29 2015 to Apr 4 2015 2015
2014 Change Normal
City
2015
2014 Change Normal
Edmonton
2.8
-7.3
10.1
-0.7
Edmonton
15
2
13
2
Calgary
5.0
-3.3
8.3
0.9
Vancouver
27
21
6
23
Winnipeg
0.7
-6.1
6.8
0.0
Quebec City
23
19
4
20
Vancouver
9.1
8.1
1.0
7.4
Winnipeg
5
6
-1
10
Toronto
3.4
2.9
0.5
5.0
Toronto
10
15
-5
18
Ottawa
1.2
1.4
-0.1
4.0
Calgary
1
6
-5
5
Montreal
1.1
1.4
-0.3
4.3
Montreal
19
33
-14
20
Quebec City
-4.5
-1.8
-2.7
1.4
Ottawa
10
26
-15
22
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
+2.7% +2.4% +2.2%
+3.0%
+1.9%
+0.6% +0.3%
+0.0%
-1.0% -2.0%
18-Apr
4-Apr
28-Mar
11-Apr
-2.0%
-2.5%
21-Mar
-3.0%
14-Mar
Canada Summary and Callouts
City
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
28-Feb
City
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
7-Mar
MEAN TEMPERATURE (°F) Period of Record: Mar 29 2015 to Apr 4 2015
Compared to the Same Week Last Year
Temperature
• Holiday Weekend Review: The holiday weekend began with the warmest Good Friday since 2011. A volatile storm system moved into the Northeast on Saturday, leaving snow in the eastern Great Lakes and New England. Heavy rain and thunderstorms moved across the Deep South. Temperatures in the Midwest and Northeast were near normal. Cooler than normal temperatures blanketed the West Coast, while warmer than normal temperatures returned to the Great Plains. Wetter and cooler than normal conditions moved into the Pacific Northwest over the weekend. • Easter Recap. Easter Sunday was the coldest since 2008 with below normal rain. • Last year the U.S. had its warmest end to March since 2012 with the most rainfall since 2011. Snowfall exceeded normal levels due to a mid-week storm in the upper Midwest, Rockies, and interior Northeast. The Easter holiday weekend last year (4/18 – 4/20) was mostly warm and dry, but began with record cold in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic for Good Friday. Easter Sunday was the warmest since 2011 with below normal rain. • Warmth Focused in the Central and Western Regions. Last week was the warmest final week of March since 2012, driven by the western two-thirds of the U.S. The central regions had their warmest final week of March since 2012. Dallas and Oklahoma City were warmest since 2001. Further west, Phoenix and Seattle were each warmest in over 55 years, while LA was the warmest since 1988, supporting demand for spring apparel. • A Cooler Week Than LY For Much of the East Coast. While the western U.S. was warm, the Northeast, MidAtlantic, and South Atlantic regions were all colder than LY. Cooler markets included Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Atlanta, all of which experienced soft demand for seasonal categories compared to LY. • Driest End to March in 20 Years. Rainfall was 51% below last year and well below normal. In a week where the Governor of California made water conservation mandatory throughout the state, the Pacific region had its driest end to March since 2008. The Mountain region was driest since 1966. • Severe Weather Continued in the South. Last week, there were 500 severe weather reports, including over 20 tornadoes and 250 accounts of hail. Severe weather was focused in the South Central region, and supported demand for emergency preparedness as well as clean-up items as the season continued to ramp up.
Precipitation
U.S. Summary and Callouts
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product/category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather.
LAWN FERTILIZER North America +9% Detroit +9% Baltimore +5% Seattle +5% Atlanta -6%
SANDALS North America +8% Las Vegas +27% New Orleans +16% Toronto +12% New York City +3%
SUNGLASSES North America +4% San Francisco +23% St. Louis +9% Dallas +3% Pittsburgh -6%
RESTAURANT TRAFFIC North America +2% Sacramento +14% Los Angeles +10% Chicago +3% Charlotte -3%
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
THIS WEEK: April 5, 2015 – April 11, 2015 (Retail Week 10 / April Week 1)
Play Ball! April’s Opening Week is a Hit for Many Markets in Need of Warmer Temperatures. The West Will Cool Down and Receive Some Welcomed Rain. Canada Remains Cool.
Temperature
• This week last year, the U.S. had the warmest first week of retail April since 2002, driven by record heat in the West. Rainfall was near normal while snowfall was well below normal. Canada was warmer than normal with above normal rainfall but below normal snowfall. • Spring Temperatures Becoming More Widespread. Very warm spring temperatures will extend from the Central and Southern Plains to the East Coast. High temperatures will rise into the 70s and 80s across these regions. Most of the area will also be warmer to much warmer than last year and normal, aiding demand for spring apparel, cold drinks, and lawn care businesses. • The Southeast and Texas Stay Warm. The Southeast and Texas will experience warmth, with most markets reaching the high 70s mid-week, trending above last year and normal. • A Cooler Start for the North. Cooler air will hold on across Canada and the far northern U.S. into New England for much of the week and then gradually warm up from west to east. Expect 30s and 40s early week then 40s and 50s for late week. By Thursday and Friday, temperatures across the region will flip from cooler to warmer than last year, bolstering seasonal demand leading into the weekend. • Western Regions Cool Down. The long spell of unseasonably warm weather will end this week as temperatures cooler than normal and last year push through the West and out into the Great Plains. Highs will slip into the 60s and 70s across California while mid 40s to low 60s overspread the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West. • Rain From Sea to Shining Sea. A pair of storm systems will cause heavy showers from the central U.S. into the East. Temperatures remain cold enough across the north to turn rain to snow from the Northern Plains to northern New England. Meanwhile, periods of rain are expected to move ashore in the West with rain reaching as far south as the Los Angeles basin. While welcomed, the rain will have little impact on the long-term drought in the West. • Sever Weather Potential. As severe weather season ramps up, the greatest threats are from the Plains to the Mid-South for mid to late week. • Canada Dry (and Cool). Spring temperatures hold off as western Canada cools down and eastern markets remain colder than LY. Despite cooler temperatures, conditions will trend drier than LY and normal, supporting foot traffic.
Precipitation
This Week Outlook & Callouts
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
(Maps compare to the same week last year)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Pest Control: +3%
Fishing Gear: +2%
Tees: +2%
Lawn Tools (Canada): -18%
More Favorable Similar Less Favorable
NEXT WEEK: April 12, 2015 – April 18, 2015 (Retail Week 11 / April Week 2)
After a Taxing Winter, Many Warm Returns! Warmer Temperatures Will Envelop Most of the U.S. and Canada, Supporting Seasonal Businesses. April Showers and Severe Weather Threats Continue.
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
Precipitation
• The U.S had its coolest 2nd week of April since 2009 with above normal rainfall. Snowfall was well above normal, driven by the East North Central and Northeast regions. Canada was the coldest since 2000, and the wettest since 1999. Note that this was also the run-up week to Easter. • Spring Sales to Soar. It's time to put winter in the rear view mirror for good as spring warmth will burst forth across the continent. Areas near the West Coast will be a bit cooler than LY, but the rest of North America will average above to well above last year and normal providing ideal conditions for a lift in demand of seasonal items. • More Rain From the West to the Plains. A storm will bring rain and mountain snow to the western U.S. while rain and thunderstorms will develop over the central U.S. early in the week. Rain will expand into the Northeast late in the week. • Canada Warms up Too! Temperatures will be warmer than last year and normal for most Canadians which will drive demand for spring categories. The exception will be along the west coast of Canada where temperatures will trend slightly below LY and normal throughout the week.
Temperature
Next Week Outlook & Callouts
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
(Maps compare to the same week last year)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Pool Chemicals: +11%
Tees (Canada): +19%
More Favorable Similar Less Favorable
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
