FlashWeather 2015 0831
Precipitation vs. Last Year
Temperature vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
North American Summary • Last year, both the U.S. and Canada had their coolest final week of August since 2010, with below normal rainfall. Hurricane Cristobal impacted Puerto Rico and threatened the U.S. mainland, although it remained offshore. • Weekend Review: Warmth returned to the Northeast while cooler temperatures covered the Southeast. Tropical Storm Erika dissipated as it approached the U.S. mainland; however, her remnants brought flood threats to Florida and the South Atlantic region. Much needed precipitation, along with cooler temperatures, arrived in the Pacific Northwest. • Cool Aid. Cool conditions for many markets in the eastern half of the U.S. spurred transitional purchases. The East North Central region had its coolest end to August since 1987; the West South Central region since 1992. Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Indianapolis, and Kansas City were all coolest since 1987. The East South Central and West South Central regions were both coolest since 2009. Houston had its coolest end to August since 2001, Oklahoma City since 2002. • The West Not Ready to Fall in Line. Warm conditions blanketed the West, prompting consumers to demand summer clearance over new fall arrivals. The Pacific region experienced its warmest close to August in over 55 years. San Diego was warmest for the week since 1981, Los Angeles since 1996, and Sacramento since 2008. • Dry Conditions Lifted Foot Traffic. Nationally, the U.S. had its driest close to August since 2000, ideal for outdoor activities. Minneapolis had its driest end to August since 1974. New Orleans was driest since 2002, Buffalo since 2007, Boston since 2008, and Cincinnati since 2010. Conversely, Orlando had its wettest end to August since 2002, Charlotte since 2008. • Tropical Activity Surrounded the 10-Year Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. Tropical Storm Erika brought flooding and destructive winds to the Caribbean. Erika dissipated on Saturday before making landfall, although her threat drove purchasing of emergency preparedness items. Hurricane Fred also formed in the eastern Atlantic. In the Pacific basin, Hurricane Ignacio joined Hurricanes Jimena and Kilo. Each storm reached category 4 status, although impacts to businesses have been limited. This marks the first time in recorded history that three major hurricanes were simultaneously active in the Pacific. • Regional Trends in Canada. As a whole, Canada ended the week warmer and wetter than both last year and normal, although the East and BC were cool and the Prairies were warm. Cooler conditions benefitted fall categories across Ontario. Toronto had its coolest close to August since 1989 and driest since 2007. Ottawa was coolest since 2009.
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD)* Category Notables HOT COFFEE North America New Orleans Chicago Boston Los Angeles
OUTERWEAR +1% +17% +9% +1% -2%
North America Cincinnati Toronto Seattle San Diego
FANS +1% +37% +6% +1% -27%
North America New York City San Francisco Miami St. Louis
HOME CENTER TRAFFIC -5% +16% +14% - 7% - 31%
North America Indianapolis Portland, OR Houston Charlotte
+0.6% +6.2% +1.5% +1.2% -1.2%
* WDDs represent the change in demand vs. LY based purely on changes in weather.
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
Temperature vs. Last Year
Precipitation vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Pools: +4%
Lawn Tools (Canada): +5%
More Favorable
Temperature vs. Last Year
Less Favorable
Precipitation vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Sport Drinks: +6%
More Favorable
Fleece (Canada): -9%
• This week last year, Labor Day fell on Sept. 1 in week 4 of August, and was warmer than normal and the driest since 2009. The U.S. had a warmer than normal week with above normal rain. In Canada, Labour Day was the warmest since 1999, and the driest since 2012. Overall, the week in Canada was warmer and wetter than normal. • A Western Cool Down. Temperatures will drop below normal and LY. The Southern Tier of the U.S. will also trend cooler than LY throughout the week. • Warming Northern Plains and Great Lakes. These regions will trend warmer than normal and LY. • Tropical Rain in the Southeast. Remnants of Tropical Storm Erika will bring heavy rainfall to the southeastern U.S. in the beginning of the week. Flash flooding is likely across the region. • Welcomed Rain in the Northwest. Much needed rain will fall from the Pacific Northwest to the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains. While doing little to alleviate drought conditions, the rain will help firefighting efforts. • Labor Day Weekend. The Northeast and Great Lakes will be warm for the weekend, with the Central Plains trending cooler and wetter. The Southeast will also see showers. • Active Tropics. In the Atlantic, Fred has strengthened to a Hurricane, although no landfall impacts are expected this week. In the Pacific, Hurricanes Kilo and Ignacio will skirt Hawaii with limited impacts. • Warmer Prairies & East; Cooler Western Canada. BC will see the coolest and wettest conditions for the week.
• Next week last year, many markets saw record low temperatures and even some localized snowfall. Overall the U.S. was cooler and wetter than normal. Canada had its coolest week 2 of September since 1986 with early season snowfall in the West, and above normal rain. • Cooling, but Still Warmer Than Last Year. A shot of cooler air will move eastward across the U.S., dropping temperatures back below normal briefly through the week. By the weekend, nearly all markets are expected to again be warmer than LY. Despite the cooler readings through the week, overall temperatures will be warmer than LY for almost all areas of the country. Warmer conditions will also return to the West. • Rain O’er Me. Rain and thunderstorms will move across the central and eastern U.S. at the beginning of the week and again later in the week. Some light rain will continue across the Pacific Northwest while the remainder of the West is dry. • Atlantic Hurricane Season Peaks. Next week marks the peak of the hurricane season. Watch for continued alerts and updates during this active period. • Canada Remains Warm. Most markets in Canada will trend warmer than LY, challenging demand for fall merchandise. Showers will move through the Prairies and Ontario, as well as BC.
Less Favorable
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
Temperature vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
North American Summary • Last year, both the U.S. and Canada had their coolest final week of August since 2010, with below normal rainfall. Hurricane Cristobal impacted Puerto Rico and threatened the U.S. mainland, although it remained offshore. • Weekend Review: Warmth returned to the Northeast while cooler temperatures covered the Southeast. Tropical Storm Erika dissipated as it approached the U.S. mainland; however, her remnants brought flood threats to Florida and the South Atlantic region. Much needed precipitation, along with cooler temperatures, arrived in the Pacific Northwest. • Cool Aid. Cool conditions for many markets in the eastern half of the U.S. spurred transitional purchases. The East North Central region had its coolest end to August since 1987; the West South Central region since 1992. Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Indianapolis, and Kansas City were all coolest since 1987. The East South Central and West South Central regions were both coolest since 2009. Houston had its coolest end to August since 2001, Oklahoma City since 2002. • The West Not Ready to Fall in Line. Warm conditions blanketed the West, prompting consumers to demand summer clearance over new fall arrivals. The Pacific region experienced its warmest close to August in over 55 years. San Diego was warmest for the week since 1981, Los Angeles since 1996, and Sacramento since 2008. • Dry Conditions Lifted Foot Traffic. Nationally, the U.S. had its driest close to August since 2000, ideal for outdoor activities. Minneapolis had its driest end to August since 1974. New Orleans was driest since 2002, Buffalo since 2007, Boston since 2008, and Cincinnati since 2010. Conversely, Orlando had its wettest end to August since 2002, Charlotte since 2008. • Tropical Activity Surrounded the 10-Year Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. Tropical Storm Erika brought flooding and destructive winds to the Caribbean. Erika dissipated on Saturday before making landfall, although her threat drove purchasing of emergency preparedness items. Hurricane Fred also formed in the eastern Atlantic. In the Pacific basin, Hurricane Ignacio joined Hurricanes Jimena and Kilo. Each storm reached category 4 status, although impacts to businesses have been limited. This marks the first time in recorded history that three major hurricanes were simultaneously active in the Pacific. • Regional Trends in Canada. As a whole, Canada ended the week warmer and wetter than both last year and normal, although the East and BC were cool and the Prairies were warm. Cooler conditions benefitted fall categories across Ontario. Toronto had its coolest close to August since 1989 and driest since 2007. Ottawa was coolest since 2009.
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD)* Category Notables HOT COFFEE North America New Orleans Chicago Boston Los Angeles
OUTERWEAR +1% +17% +9% +1% -2%
North America Cincinnati Toronto Seattle San Diego
FANS +1% +37% +6% +1% -27%
North America New York City San Francisco Miami St. Louis
HOME CENTER TRAFFIC -5% +16% +14% - 7% - 31%
North America Indianapolis Portland, OR Houston Charlotte
+0.6% +6.2% +1.5% +1.2% -1.2%
* WDDs represent the change in demand vs. LY based purely on changes in weather.
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
Temperature vs. Last Year
Precipitation vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Pools: +4%
Lawn Tools (Canada): +5%
More Favorable
Temperature vs. Last Year
Less Favorable
Precipitation vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Sport Drinks: +6%
More Favorable
Fleece (Canada): -9%
• This week last year, Labor Day fell on Sept. 1 in week 4 of August, and was warmer than normal and the driest since 2009. The U.S. had a warmer than normal week with above normal rain. In Canada, Labour Day was the warmest since 1999, and the driest since 2012. Overall, the week in Canada was warmer and wetter than normal. • A Western Cool Down. Temperatures will drop below normal and LY. The Southern Tier of the U.S. will also trend cooler than LY throughout the week. • Warming Northern Plains and Great Lakes. These regions will trend warmer than normal and LY. • Tropical Rain in the Southeast. Remnants of Tropical Storm Erika will bring heavy rainfall to the southeastern U.S. in the beginning of the week. Flash flooding is likely across the region. • Welcomed Rain in the Northwest. Much needed rain will fall from the Pacific Northwest to the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains. While doing little to alleviate drought conditions, the rain will help firefighting efforts. • Labor Day Weekend. The Northeast and Great Lakes will be warm for the weekend, with the Central Plains trending cooler and wetter. The Southeast will also see showers. • Active Tropics. In the Atlantic, Fred has strengthened to a Hurricane, although no landfall impacts are expected this week. In the Pacific, Hurricanes Kilo and Ignacio will skirt Hawaii with limited impacts. • Warmer Prairies & East; Cooler Western Canada. BC will see the coolest and wettest conditions for the week.
• Next week last year, many markets saw record low temperatures and even some localized snowfall. Overall the U.S. was cooler and wetter than normal. Canada had its coolest week 2 of September since 1986 with early season snowfall in the West, and above normal rain. • Cooling, but Still Warmer Than Last Year. A shot of cooler air will move eastward across the U.S., dropping temperatures back below normal briefly through the week. By the weekend, nearly all markets are expected to again be warmer than LY. Despite the cooler readings through the week, overall temperatures will be warmer than LY for almost all areas of the country. Warmer conditions will also return to the West. • Rain O’er Me. Rain and thunderstorms will move across the central and eastern U.S. at the beginning of the week and again later in the week. Some light rain will continue across the Pacific Northwest while the remainder of the West is dry. • Atlantic Hurricane Season Peaks. Next week marks the peak of the hurricane season. Watch for continued alerts and updates during this active period. • Canada Remains Warm. Most markets in Canada will trend warmer than LY, challenging demand for fall merchandise. Showers will move through the Prairies and Ontario, as well as BC.
Less Favorable
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
