2015 0112 Planalytics FlashWeather
LAST WEEK: January 4, 2014 – January 10, 2015 (Retail Week 49 / January Week 1)
‘Ol Man Winter Kicked Out Baby New Year! The Coldest Start to January in 5 Years in the U.S. and Coldest Since 2004 in Canada Drove Winter Categories. Snowfall Picked Up Across North America.
Retail Foot Traffic WDD (Actuals for last 6 weeks. Outlook for next 2 weeks.)
2015
2014 Change Normal
2015
2014 Change Normal
Aspen, CO
27.0
14.8
12.2
20.9
Brownsville, TX
2.89
0.08
2.81
0.20
Jackson, WY
24.8
15.2
9.6
17.1
Pensacola, FL
2.76
1.04
1.72
1.01
Grand Junction, CO
28.2
19.7
8.6
22.7
Bellingham, WA
2.56
1.24
1.32
1.19
+4.0%
Las Vegas, NV
54.2
48.4
5.8
48.2
Los Angeles, CA
0.59
0.00
0.59
0.96
+3.0%
Taos, NM
28.1
22.6
5.5
25.6
Missoula, MT
0.79
0.21
0.58
0.19
+2.0%
Brownsville, TX
50.7
60.2
-9.5
62.7
Hartford, CT
0.34
2.20
-1.86
0.78
+1.0% +0.7%
Columbus, OH
16.2
26.2
-10.0
33.0
Charlotte, NC
0.25
2.43
-2.18
0.83
+0.0%
Columbia, SC
0.48
2.77
-2.29
0.77
28.7
Little Rock, AR
0.00
2.30
-2.30
0.78
Caribou, ME
2.7
15.7
-13.0
17.0
Memphis, TN
0.00
2.52
-2.52
0.90
Canada Summary and Callouts
• Last year Canada had its coldest start to January since 2008 with above average rain, and below normal snow. • Coldest Start to January Since 2004. It was a bitter cold week in Canada as most major markets trended colder than LY and normal, supporting demand for seasonal categories. Toronto had its coldest start to January since 1996, Edmonton since 1998, and Montreal since 2004. Conversely, Vancouver was warmest since 2011. • Snowfall Increased vs LY. Snowfall was the most to start January since 2000 and was almost 100% greater than last year. Quebec City had its most snow since 2000. Need based snow removal categories increased. • Rainfall Lagged Last Year, but Still Above Normal. Rainfall was 16% below last year, although still above normal. Calgary had its wettest start to January in over 50 years while Montreal was wettest since 2010. MEAN TEMPERATURE (°C) Period of Record: Jan 4 2015 to Jan 10 2015 City
2015
PRECIPITATION (mm) Period of Record: Jan 4 2015 to Jan 10 2015
2014 Change Normal
City
2015
2014 Change Normal
Vancouver
5.6
4.2
1.4
4.1
Calgary
22
1
21
3
Winnipeg
-22.7
-21.2
-1.4
-13.6
Montreal
39
31
8
24
Toronto
-10.3
-7.7
-2.6
-2.4
Edmonton
3
2
2
5
Montreal
-12.1
-7.6
-4.5
-5.7
Winnipeg
2
3
0
4
Ottawa
-14.4
-8.4
-5.9
-6.6
Ottawa
19
28
-10
17
Quebec City
-17.8
-11.1
-6.7
-8.4
Toronto
11
32
-20
12
Calgary
-12.5
-5.7
-6.8
-5.6
Vancouver
63
106
-43
41
Edmonton
-21.5
-12.4
-9.1
-11.0
Quebec City
22
121
-99
20
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
-0.4%
-1.0%
-0.9%
-2.0%
24-Jan
14.4
-11.6
17-Jan
-10.1
27.1
+0.5% +0.2%
10-Jan
7.8
15.5
+1.7% +1.1%
3-Jan
-2.3
Billings, MT
+5.1%
+5.0%
27-Dec
Bismarck, ND
+6.0%
20-Dec
City
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
6-Dec
City
PRECIPITATION (Inches) Period of Record: Jan 4 2015 to Jan 10 2015
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
13-Dec
MEAN TEMPERATURE (°F) Period of Record: Jan 4 2015 to Jan 10 2015
Compared to the Same Week Last Year
Temperature
• Weekend Review: Much of North America enjoyed moderating temperatures against the week’s frigid conditions. While the East Coast states enjoyed a dry weekend, moisture streaming north and east from Texas brought a mix of rain, ice pellets, and freezing rain over a large area stretching into the lower Midwest. Travel was tricky in the worst hit areas. A Pacific storm brought widespread rain and mountain snow to the western states. With the exception of British Columbia, most of Canada was seasonably cold and dry. • Last year, temperatures were the coldest since 2010, with above average rain and near normal snowfall. • Arctic Air Roared Back into the East. Nationally, last week was the coldest start to January in 5 years driven by bitter cold in eastern regions. The Mid-Atlantic region had its coldest start to January since 1996, the East North Central since 1999, and New England since 2004. The frigid temperatures extended through many major markets including NYC, Chicago, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh which were all coldest since 1988. Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Indianapolis, and Minneapolis were coldest since 1999. The extreme cold temperatures helped continue to drive post-holiday demand for Winter apparel and need based purchases such as warm drinks, heaters, and blankets. • January Warmed Up in the West. While the East was cold, western regions trended warmer than LY. The Mountain and Pacific regions had their warmest start to January since 2012. San Diego was warmest since 1986, Las Vegas since 2003, and Sacramento and Salt Lake City since 2006. • Snowfall was on the Rise. Snowfall across the U.S. was 9% greater than last year although near normal. The East North Central region had its snowiest start to January since 1999, the West North Central since 2010, the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions since 2011. NYC had its most snowfall to start January since 1991; Minneapolis since 1999, and Baltimore since 2003. Snow cover across the U.S. increased 25% just compared to the prior week. Demand for snow shovels, ice melt, and wiper blades increased to LY. • Rainfall Dropped Off. Although snowfall was on the rise, rainfall was 59% below last year, well below normal, and the least to begin January in 3 years. All regions had less rain than LY except for the Mountain region. The East South Central region was driest since 2011.
Precipitation
U.S. Summary and Callouts
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product/category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather.
ICE MELT North America +41% Minneapolis +200% Philadelphia +66% Toronto +21% Salt Lake City -66%
THERMALS North America +7% New York City +25% Cleveland +8% Oklahoma City +3% Charlotte -4%
HEATERS North America +6% Boston +20% Seattle +13% Chicago +9% Miami -19%
SPORTS DRINKS North America -5% St. Louis +16% Los Angeles +2% Baltimore -10% Minneapolis -27%
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
THIS WEEK: January 11, 2015 – January 17, 2015 (Retail Week 50 / January Week 2)
While Temperatures Will Moderate, Colder Conditions to Last Year Should Aid Winter Businesses. A Stormy East Will Receive a Mix of Wintry Precipitation. Canada Colder Than Last Year. Precipitation vs. LY
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
Ice
Snow
• Last year, temperatures in the U.S. were the warmest since 2006, and the driest since 2009 with well below normal rainfall and snow. Canada was warmest in over 50 years, and had its most rainfall since 2006, but well below average snow. • Early Week Winter Storm to Disrupt Traffic in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic. A disturbance that brought periods of ice to the lower Plains and Midwest over the weekend is taking aim at the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast early week. Expect a mix of snow, ice pellets, and freezing rain for the major East Coast cities on Monday. While amounts are not expected to be heavy, it should be enough in many locations to disrupt travel. The storm is expected to quickly move offshore by Tuesday. • Arctic Air to Retreat…But Slowly. Following the early week Winter storm, another cold surge will bring more below normal temperatures to the Midwest, Northeast, and points north into Canada. Expect continued heavy Lake Effect snow much of the week adding to the totals of recent days. Late week, expect temperatures to moderate as the Arctic chill finally loses its grip. Despite the milder trend, colder temperatures to a warm week last year should provide a favorable environment to drive demand for cold weather clearance items. • Tracking a Late Week Storm in the East. We are watching the potential later in the week for more ice pellets or freezing rain across the higher elevations of the Carolinas. At this time all guidance suggests that the system will push out to sea. As we move into the Martin Luther King Jr. weekend, please watch for your daily Snow and Ice Alerts for the latest updates. • Western Regions Warmer, But Remaining Stormy. Another storm system is expected to move through the western states early-mid week, bringing rain to lower elevations and mountain snow to the Rockies. After a short break, conditions will turn stormy again for the upcoming weekend with coastal rain and mountain snow beginning in the Pacific Northwest. • Canada Colder Against a Very Mild Week Last Year. As a result, expect higher demand for winter apparel, heaters, and hot beverages.
Temperature vs. LY
This Week Outlook & Callouts
Light Medium Heavy
Ice
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category UNITED STATES Snow Removal +74%
CANADA Sweaters +22%
Auto Wiper Blades +22%
Ice Melt
+15%
Outerwear
Winter Boots
+13%
+6%
NEXT WEEK: January 18, 2015 – January 24, 2015 (Retail Week 51 / January Week 3)
Pattern Change to Bring a Milder Trend to Most of North America, Disrupting the Recent Seasonal Demand Boost. Anticipate a Stormy Week, Although Wintry Weather Potential is More Limited.
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Precipitation vs LY
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
Ice
Snow
• Next week last year was the coldest 3rd week of January in the U.S. since 2008 with the least rainfall in over 50 years, although above normal snowfall. In Canada, it was the warmest week 3 since 2010. Rain and snowfall were below normal. • Arctic Air Pushing Out as a Milder Trend Moves Into the Interior and East. The stubborn Arctic chill will finally exit and be replaced with temperatures to trend above normal and last year. The recent momentum for cold weather items such as outerwear, gloves, electric blankets, and soup will diminish. • Active Storm Pattern Expected to Bring Mix of Rain, Snow, and Ice. The pattern will support fast-moving Pacific storms. Early week, expect a stormy interior with snow and ice confined to the Northern Tier and Canada. This system will move slowly to the east, making for a wet period for eastern regions by mid-week. While Wintry precipitation should be more confined versus recent trends, we’ll continue to track scenarios as we get closer. Still, the heavy rain expected should improve demand for rainwear, wiper blades, and sump pumps. • A Colder Trend Expected West. While moderation is likely for the eastern twothirds of North America, the western states and provinces will see a colder surge. This should help to restart demand for Winter categories in those regions. • Week to End Stormy for Most. The pattern will continue to promote stormy weather across the U.S. While the timing of individual systems is not clear, periods of rain, snow, and ice are likely for most areas, specifically in eastern regions. Wintry conditions are anticipated to be focused in the Northern Tier. • Canada Trends Similar to the U.S. Expect a warmer, but stormier East. Wintry weather is likely, and should help demand for snow and ice removal as well as winter boots. Colder temperatures to last year in western provinces should aid clearance of cold weather apparel categories.
Temperature vs LY
Next Week Outlook & Callouts
Light Medium Heavy
Ice
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category UNITED STATES Hats & Gloves -13%
CANADA Fleece -3% www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
‘Ol Man Winter Kicked Out Baby New Year! The Coldest Start to January in 5 Years in the U.S. and Coldest Since 2004 in Canada Drove Winter Categories. Snowfall Picked Up Across North America.
Retail Foot Traffic WDD (Actuals for last 6 weeks. Outlook for next 2 weeks.)
2015
2014 Change Normal
2015
2014 Change Normal
Aspen, CO
27.0
14.8
12.2
20.9
Brownsville, TX
2.89
0.08
2.81
0.20
Jackson, WY
24.8
15.2
9.6
17.1
Pensacola, FL
2.76
1.04
1.72
1.01
Grand Junction, CO
28.2
19.7
8.6
22.7
Bellingham, WA
2.56
1.24
1.32
1.19
+4.0%
Las Vegas, NV
54.2
48.4
5.8
48.2
Los Angeles, CA
0.59
0.00
0.59
0.96
+3.0%
Taos, NM
28.1
22.6
5.5
25.6
Missoula, MT
0.79
0.21
0.58
0.19
+2.0%
Brownsville, TX
50.7
60.2
-9.5
62.7
Hartford, CT
0.34
2.20
-1.86
0.78
+1.0% +0.7%
Columbus, OH
16.2
26.2
-10.0
33.0
Charlotte, NC
0.25
2.43
-2.18
0.83
+0.0%
Columbia, SC
0.48
2.77
-2.29
0.77
28.7
Little Rock, AR
0.00
2.30
-2.30
0.78
Caribou, ME
2.7
15.7
-13.0
17.0
Memphis, TN
0.00
2.52
-2.52
0.90
Canada Summary and Callouts
• Last year Canada had its coldest start to January since 2008 with above average rain, and below normal snow. • Coldest Start to January Since 2004. It was a bitter cold week in Canada as most major markets trended colder than LY and normal, supporting demand for seasonal categories. Toronto had its coldest start to January since 1996, Edmonton since 1998, and Montreal since 2004. Conversely, Vancouver was warmest since 2011. • Snowfall Increased vs LY. Snowfall was the most to start January since 2000 and was almost 100% greater than last year. Quebec City had its most snow since 2000. Need based snow removal categories increased. • Rainfall Lagged Last Year, but Still Above Normal. Rainfall was 16% below last year, although still above normal. Calgary had its wettest start to January in over 50 years while Montreal was wettest since 2010. MEAN TEMPERATURE (°C) Period of Record: Jan 4 2015 to Jan 10 2015 City
2015
PRECIPITATION (mm) Period of Record: Jan 4 2015 to Jan 10 2015
2014 Change Normal
City
2015
2014 Change Normal
Vancouver
5.6
4.2
1.4
4.1
Calgary
22
1
21
3
Winnipeg
-22.7
-21.2
-1.4
-13.6
Montreal
39
31
8
24
Toronto
-10.3
-7.7
-2.6
-2.4
Edmonton
3
2
2
5
Montreal
-12.1
-7.6
-4.5
-5.7
Winnipeg
2
3
0
4
Ottawa
-14.4
-8.4
-5.9
-6.6
Ottawa
19
28
-10
17
Quebec City
-17.8
-11.1
-6.7
-8.4
Toronto
11
32
-20
12
Calgary
-12.5
-5.7
-6.8
-5.6
Vancouver
63
106
-43
41
Edmonton
-21.5
-12.4
-9.1
-11.0
Quebec City
22
121
-99
20
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
-0.4%
-1.0%
-0.9%
-2.0%
24-Jan
14.4
-11.6
17-Jan
-10.1
27.1
+0.5% +0.2%
10-Jan
7.8
15.5
+1.7% +1.1%
3-Jan
-2.3
Billings, MT
+5.1%
+5.0%
27-Dec
Bismarck, ND
+6.0%
20-Dec
City
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
6-Dec
City
PRECIPITATION (Inches) Period of Record: Jan 4 2015 to Jan 10 2015
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
13-Dec
MEAN TEMPERATURE (°F) Period of Record: Jan 4 2015 to Jan 10 2015
Compared to the Same Week Last Year
Temperature
• Weekend Review: Much of North America enjoyed moderating temperatures against the week’s frigid conditions. While the East Coast states enjoyed a dry weekend, moisture streaming north and east from Texas brought a mix of rain, ice pellets, and freezing rain over a large area stretching into the lower Midwest. Travel was tricky in the worst hit areas. A Pacific storm brought widespread rain and mountain snow to the western states. With the exception of British Columbia, most of Canada was seasonably cold and dry. • Last year, temperatures were the coldest since 2010, with above average rain and near normal snowfall. • Arctic Air Roared Back into the East. Nationally, last week was the coldest start to January in 5 years driven by bitter cold in eastern regions. The Mid-Atlantic region had its coldest start to January since 1996, the East North Central since 1999, and New England since 2004. The frigid temperatures extended through many major markets including NYC, Chicago, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh which were all coldest since 1988. Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Indianapolis, and Minneapolis were coldest since 1999. The extreme cold temperatures helped continue to drive post-holiday demand for Winter apparel and need based purchases such as warm drinks, heaters, and blankets. • January Warmed Up in the West. While the East was cold, western regions trended warmer than LY. The Mountain and Pacific regions had their warmest start to January since 2012. San Diego was warmest since 1986, Las Vegas since 2003, and Sacramento and Salt Lake City since 2006. • Snowfall was on the Rise. Snowfall across the U.S. was 9% greater than last year although near normal. The East North Central region had its snowiest start to January since 1999, the West North Central since 2010, the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions since 2011. NYC had its most snowfall to start January since 1991; Minneapolis since 1999, and Baltimore since 2003. Snow cover across the U.S. increased 25% just compared to the prior week. Demand for snow shovels, ice melt, and wiper blades increased to LY. • Rainfall Dropped Off. Although snowfall was on the rise, rainfall was 59% below last year, well below normal, and the least to begin January in 3 years. All regions had less rain than LY except for the Mountain region. The East South Central region was driest since 2011.
Precipitation
U.S. Summary and Callouts
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product/category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather.
ICE MELT North America +41% Minneapolis +200% Philadelphia +66% Toronto +21% Salt Lake City -66%
THERMALS North America +7% New York City +25% Cleveland +8% Oklahoma City +3% Charlotte -4%
HEATERS North America +6% Boston +20% Seattle +13% Chicago +9% Miami -19%
SPORTS DRINKS North America -5% St. Louis +16% Los Angeles +2% Baltimore -10% Minneapolis -27%
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
THIS WEEK: January 11, 2015 – January 17, 2015 (Retail Week 50 / January Week 2)
While Temperatures Will Moderate, Colder Conditions to Last Year Should Aid Winter Businesses. A Stormy East Will Receive a Mix of Wintry Precipitation. Canada Colder Than Last Year. Precipitation vs. LY
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
Ice
Snow
• Last year, temperatures in the U.S. were the warmest since 2006, and the driest since 2009 with well below normal rainfall and snow. Canada was warmest in over 50 years, and had its most rainfall since 2006, but well below average snow. • Early Week Winter Storm to Disrupt Traffic in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic. A disturbance that brought periods of ice to the lower Plains and Midwest over the weekend is taking aim at the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast early week. Expect a mix of snow, ice pellets, and freezing rain for the major East Coast cities on Monday. While amounts are not expected to be heavy, it should be enough in many locations to disrupt travel. The storm is expected to quickly move offshore by Tuesday. • Arctic Air to Retreat…But Slowly. Following the early week Winter storm, another cold surge will bring more below normal temperatures to the Midwest, Northeast, and points north into Canada. Expect continued heavy Lake Effect snow much of the week adding to the totals of recent days. Late week, expect temperatures to moderate as the Arctic chill finally loses its grip. Despite the milder trend, colder temperatures to a warm week last year should provide a favorable environment to drive demand for cold weather clearance items. • Tracking a Late Week Storm in the East. We are watching the potential later in the week for more ice pellets or freezing rain across the higher elevations of the Carolinas. At this time all guidance suggests that the system will push out to sea. As we move into the Martin Luther King Jr. weekend, please watch for your daily Snow and Ice Alerts for the latest updates. • Western Regions Warmer, But Remaining Stormy. Another storm system is expected to move through the western states early-mid week, bringing rain to lower elevations and mountain snow to the Rockies. After a short break, conditions will turn stormy again for the upcoming weekend with coastal rain and mountain snow beginning in the Pacific Northwest. • Canada Colder Against a Very Mild Week Last Year. As a result, expect higher demand for winter apparel, heaters, and hot beverages.
Temperature vs. LY
This Week Outlook & Callouts
Light Medium Heavy
Ice
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category UNITED STATES Snow Removal +74%
CANADA Sweaters +22%
Auto Wiper Blades +22%
Ice Melt
+15%
Outerwear
Winter Boots
+13%
+6%
NEXT WEEK: January 18, 2015 – January 24, 2015 (Retail Week 51 / January Week 3)
Pattern Change to Bring a Milder Trend to Most of North America, Disrupting the Recent Seasonal Demand Boost. Anticipate a Stormy Week, Although Wintry Weather Potential is More Limited.
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Precipitation vs LY
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
Ice
Snow
• Next week last year was the coldest 3rd week of January in the U.S. since 2008 with the least rainfall in over 50 years, although above normal snowfall. In Canada, it was the warmest week 3 since 2010. Rain and snowfall were below normal. • Arctic Air Pushing Out as a Milder Trend Moves Into the Interior and East. The stubborn Arctic chill will finally exit and be replaced with temperatures to trend above normal and last year. The recent momentum for cold weather items such as outerwear, gloves, electric blankets, and soup will diminish. • Active Storm Pattern Expected to Bring Mix of Rain, Snow, and Ice. The pattern will support fast-moving Pacific storms. Early week, expect a stormy interior with snow and ice confined to the Northern Tier and Canada. This system will move slowly to the east, making for a wet period for eastern regions by mid-week. While Wintry precipitation should be more confined versus recent trends, we’ll continue to track scenarios as we get closer. Still, the heavy rain expected should improve demand for rainwear, wiper blades, and sump pumps. • A Colder Trend Expected West. While moderation is likely for the eastern twothirds of North America, the western states and provinces will see a colder surge. This should help to restart demand for Winter categories in those regions. • Week to End Stormy for Most. The pattern will continue to promote stormy weather across the U.S. While the timing of individual systems is not clear, periods of rain, snow, and ice are likely for most areas, specifically in eastern regions. Wintry conditions are anticipated to be focused in the Northern Tier. • Canada Trends Similar to the U.S. Expect a warmer, but stormier East. Wintry weather is likely, and should help demand for snow and ice removal as well as winter boots. Colder temperatures to last year in western provinces should aid clearance of cold weather apparel categories.
Temperature vs LY
Next Week Outlook & Callouts
Light Medium Heavy
Ice
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category UNITED STATES Hats & Gloves -13%
CANADA Fleece -3% www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
