flashweather na 02092015
LAST WEEK: February 1, 2015 – February 7, 2015 (Retail Week 1 / February Week 1)
Retail Spring Began With Warmth Focused in the West. The Midwest, New England, and Eastern Canada Remained Stuck in Winter With Cold and Snow. It was a Wet Week in the Pacific Northwest.
0.8
35.0
27.9
Seattle, WA
3.33
0.20
3.13
0.75
41.9
8.8
33.2
28.0
North Bend, OR
5.56
2.87
2.69
1.46
Casper, WY
36.6
4.2
32.4
24.1
Portland, OR
2.83
0.64
2.19
0.83
Missoula, MT
36.0
5.3
30.7
26.8
Medford, OR
2.60
0.54
2.06
0.40
Goodland, KS
38.9
9.1
29.8
28.5
Tampa, FL
1.88
0.30
1.58
0.90
Charleston, SC
46.0
54.9
-8.9
50.9
Knoxville, TN
0.65
2.58
-1.93
1.03
Boston, MA
19.8
29.6
-9.8
31.1
Little Rock, AR
0.55
2.49
-1.94
0.75
Portland, ME
12.7
22.5
-9.9
24.7
Birmingham, AL
0.29
2.30
-2.01
1.31
Caribou, ME
-1.3
10.9
-12.2
12.2
Nashville, TN
0.74
3.74
-3.00
0.94
Burlington, VT
7.4
20.2
-12.9
22.2
Memphis, TN
0.72
4.50
-3.78
1.03
Canada Summary and Callouts
• Last year was the coldest start to February since 1985, with both rainfall and snow below normal. • Mild Temperatures Focused in the West, Cold in the East. Nationally, temperatures were milder than last year although still colder than normal. Vancouver was warmest since 1963. Conversely, eastern Canada trended colder with Quebec City recording its coldest start to February in over 55 years. Ottawa was coldest since 1985, and Montreal was coldest since 1993, supporting Winter clearance and heating categories. • Snowfall the Most Since 1982. Snowfall across Canada was well above last year and above normal. Quebec City had its most snow since 2001, Edmonton since 2007, and Montreal since 2011. • A Wet Week. Nationally, rainfall was the most to begin February in over 55 years. Edmonton was wettest since 2005. Vancouver was wettest since 2006. MEAN TEMPERATURE (°C) Period of Record: Feb 1 2015 to Feb 7 2015 City Vancouver
2015
PRECIPITATION (mm) Period of Record: Feb 1 2015 to Feb 7 2015
2014 Change Normal
City
2015
2014 Change Normal
8.6
-1.8
10.4
4.5
Vancouver
64
0
64
Calgary
-10.1
-18.4
8.3
-5.5
Edmonton
11
2
9
2
Edmonton
-16.8
-20.7
3.9
-10.8
Montreal
18
11
7
15
Winnipeg
-17.6
-20.3
2.7
-16.0
Ottawa
12
6
5
11
Toronto
-9.3
-10.6
1.3
-4.9
Toronto
20
17
3
11
Ottawa
-15.5
-11.2
-4.3
-8.4
Quebec City
9
8
2
17
Montreal
-15.3
-10.4
-4.9
-8.1
Winnipeg
3
2
2
2
Quebec City
-21.2
-13.0
-8.2
-10.9
Calgary
3
3
0
2
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
23
+4.0% +3.0% +3.4% +3.5% +2.0% +2.0% +0.7% +1.0% +0.0% +0.0% -1.0% -0.5% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -4.6% -6.0% 21-Feb
35.8
Denver, CO
14-Feb
Billings, MT
Retail Foot Traffic WDD (Actuals for last 6 weeks. Outlook for next 2 weeks.)
7-Feb
2014 Change Normal
31-Jan
2015
24-Jan
City
17-Jan
2014 Change Normal
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
10-Jan
2015
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
3-Jan
City
Compared to the Same Week Last Year
Temperature
• Weekend Review: Mild conditions continued to dominate much of the country. Colder than normal temperatures were limited to parts of the Northeast and Southeast. Much needed rain, as well as snow in the higher elevations, fell across northern California. A Winter storm moved across the Great Lakes late Saturday before traveling into the Northeast on Sunday. Snowfall amounts were moderate to heavy for most markets. An area of disruptive ice impacted New York City and the surrounding suburbs. • Last year, the U.S. had its coldest start to February in over 20 years, with well above normal rainfall. Treacherous ice and snow storms stretched from the Plains through New England. • Wanna Get Warm? Look to the West! The Mountain region was warmest since 1963. The Pacific region was warmest since 1995. Salt Lake City had its warmest start to February in over 55 years. Las Vegas and San Francisco were warmest since 1963. Portland, OR and San Diego were warmest since 1995, Sacramento since 1996, and Seattle since 1998. Warm conditions continued to support demand for early Spring merchandise. • Ol’ Man Winter Refused to let go of the East. The New England region had its coldest start to February since 1985. The Mid-Atlantic region was coldest since 2007. Boston was coldest since 1985, while NYC and Buffalo were coldest since 2007. Cold conditions supported demand for Winter clearance items. • Snow Continued in the Northern Tier. The Mid-Atlantic region had its snowiest start to February since 2010, and the East North Central region since 2011. Buffalo (23.1 in.), Detroit (19 in.), and Cleveland (12.9 in.) all had the most snow to start February in over 55 years. Chicago (19.9 in.) had its most snowfall to start February since the Groundhog Day storm of 2011. Boston (17.9 in.) had its most snowfall since 2013. Demand for snow removal categories and need-based emergency items was strong. The active storm track across the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast provided snowfall totals that were above normal, but still below LY. • Heavy Rain in the Northwest. While rainfall across the U.S. was below last year, it was still above normal. The Pacific region was wettest since 1998. Seattle and Portland, OR were wettest since 2006. Tampa was also wettest since 2006, and Cleveland had its most rainfall to begin February since 2008. MEAN TEMPERATURE (°F) PRECIPITATION (Inches) Period of Record: Feb 1 2015 to Feb 7 2015 Period of Record: Feb 1 2015 to Feb 7 2015
Precipitation
U.S. Summary and Callouts
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product/category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather.
ICE MELT North America +20% Boston +88% Chicago +31% Toronto -10% Salt Lake City -84%
BICYCLES North America +15% Denver +195% Kansas City +99% San Diego +43% Miami -9%
CAPRIS North America +14% Seattle +130% St. Louis +31% Houston +19% New York City -28%
ALLERGY RELIEF North America +5% Dallas +10% Los Angeles +7% Detroit -1% Orlando -5%
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
THIS WEEK: February 8, 2015 – February 14, 2015 (Retail Week 2 / February Week 2)
Mild Temperatures Begin the Week for Most. Cold Air Filters Into the East by Valentine’s Day. Multiple Storms Bring More Wintry Weather to the Northeast and Eastern Canada. Precipitation vs. LY
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
Ice
Snow
• This week last year, the U.S. had its coldest 2nd week of February since 2011, most rain since 2003, and most snowfall since 2007. A major storm dumped snow and ice throughout the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast regions. Valentine’s Day temperatures were cold, but warmer than normal. Canada had its coldest 2nd week of February since 2003, the most rain since 2008, and slightly below normal snowfall. Valentine’s Day in Canada was cold, but warmer than normal. • Milder Start to the Week. Much of the country will enjoy relatively mild temperatures for the first half of the week. High temperatures will push into the 60s and even 70s for the Western Plains and Deep South while the Southwest will reach the low 80s. The Northern Tier states will be in the 20s and 30s. Temperatures will be much warmer than last year and normal. Consumers in the Southern Tier will begin to think of Spring purchases like tees and patio furniture. • Snow and Ice Continue in the North and East. A storm system will intensify as it moves across the northeastern U.S. early in the week bringing a mix of rain, ice, and snow to the Mid-Atlantic and more heavy snow to New England. • A Second Storm Brings in the Chill. A second storm will bring heavy rain and mountain snow from the northwest to northern California early in the week before drier conditions set up. The storm will generate light snow along the U.S.Canadian border as it tracks across the middle of the continent before it intensifies near the East Coast. By the end of the week, the Northeast will potentially receive another significant Winter storm with heavy snow and high winds. These two storms will continue to drive Winter demand for ice melt and snow removal. • Expect an Arctic Outbreak for Love Birds in the East on Valentine's Day. Arctic air will move from Canada into the central and eastern U.S. from Thursday into the weekend. Temperatures will drop well below normal and last year. Western areas will remain warmer than normal and last year with the warmth quickly rebounding back out into the Plains and northward into the Canadian Prairies. • Canada Cold in the East, Warm in the West. Markets in Eastern Ontario and Quebec will be colder than last year while western provinces will be milder than last year. Precipitation will be strongest near the Great Lakes and in the West.
Temperature vs. LY
This Week Outlook & Callouts
Light Medium Heavy
Ice
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category UNITED STATES Tee Shirts +10%
Ice Melt
Restaurant Traffic
Boots
+4%
Sweaters
+3%
Blankets
+2% - 10%
CANADA +26%
NEXT WEEK: February 15, 2015 – February 21, 2015 (Retail Week 3 / February Week 3)
The West Will Enjoy Unseasonably Warm Temperatures, Driving Early Spring Purchasing. Winter Conditions Persist in the East, With More Storm Threats. Canada to Trend Colder Than LY.
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Precipitation vs LY
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
Ice
Snow
• Last year, temperatures in the U.S. trended the warmest in 3 years with near normal rain and slightly above normal snowfall. President’s Day was the warmest since 2005 coupled with above normal snowfall in the Midwest. Temperatures in Canada trended slightly warmer than normal with the most rainfall since 1997. Snowfall was above normal. • President’s Day Outlook. President’s Day (February 16th) in the U.S. is expected to trend colder than last year and normal in the East. In the West, temperatures are expected to trend warmer than last year and normal. • For the Week as a Whole: The Winter Chill Persists Across the East. Frigid conditions hold on across the eastern U.S. as temperatures remain well below normal and last year from Texas and the Plains to the East Coast. • Still More Winter Storm Threats. The threat of snow and ice will be strongest next week from the Central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic region. Look to your daily snow and ice alerts with details specific to your business. • Warmth in the West Will Drive Spring Purchasing. The western third of the U.S. will remain warmer than normal and last year through much of the week. The warmer temperatures will once again expand out into the Plains during the second half of the week. Rain and mountain snow will return to the West Coast to end the week. • Canada Will Experience Shifting Temperatures. Canada will begin the week with temperatures colder than last year and normal throughout the country. Warmer temperatures will only envelop the western half of the country starting Thursday through the weekend, giving consumers in that area a nice break from the Winter conditions.
Temperature vs LY
Next Week Outlook & Callouts
Light Medium Heavy
Ice
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category UNITED STATES Fleece +13%
CANADA Hats & Gloves
+6%
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
Retail Spring Began With Warmth Focused in the West. The Midwest, New England, and Eastern Canada Remained Stuck in Winter With Cold and Snow. It was a Wet Week in the Pacific Northwest.
0.8
35.0
27.9
Seattle, WA
3.33
0.20
3.13
0.75
41.9
8.8
33.2
28.0
North Bend, OR
5.56
2.87
2.69
1.46
Casper, WY
36.6
4.2
32.4
24.1
Portland, OR
2.83
0.64
2.19
0.83
Missoula, MT
36.0
5.3
30.7
26.8
Medford, OR
2.60
0.54
2.06
0.40
Goodland, KS
38.9
9.1
29.8
28.5
Tampa, FL
1.88
0.30
1.58
0.90
Charleston, SC
46.0
54.9
-8.9
50.9
Knoxville, TN
0.65
2.58
-1.93
1.03
Boston, MA
19.8
29.6
-9.8
31.1
Little Rock, AR
0.55
2.49
-1.94
0.75
Portland, ME
12.7
22.5
-9.9
24.7
Birmingham, AL
0.29
2.30
-2.01
1.31
Caribou, ME
-1.3
10.9
-12.2
12.2
Nashville, TN
0.74
3.74
-3.00
0.94
Burlington, VT
7.4
20.2
-12.9
22.2
Memphis, TN
0.72
4.50
-3.78
1.03
Canada Summary and Callouts
• Last year was the coldest start to February since 1985, with both rainfall and snow below normal. • Mild Temperatures Focused in the West, Cold in the East. Nationally, temperatures were milder than last year although still colder than normal. Vancouver was warmest since 1963. Conversely, eastern Canada trended colder with Quebec City recording its coldest start to February in over 55 years. Ottawa was coldest since 1985, and Montreal was coldest since 1993, supporting Winter clearance and heating categories. • Snowfall the Most Since 1982. Snowfall across Canada was well above last year and above normal. Quebec City had its most snow since 2001, Edmonton since 2007, and Montreal since 2011. • A Wet Week. Nationally, rainfall was the most to begin February in over 55 years. Edmonton was wettest since 2005. Vancouver was wettest since 2006. MEAN TEMPERATURE (°C) Period of Record: Feb 1 2015 to Feb 7 2015 City Vancouver
2015
PRECIPITATION (mm) Period of Record: Feb 1 2015 to Feb 7 2015
2014 Change Normal
City
2015
2014 Change Normal
8.6
-1.8
10.4
4.5
Vancouver
64
0
64
Calgary
-10.1
-18.4
8.3
-5.5
Edmonton
11
2
9
2
Edmonton
-16.8
-20.7
3.9
-10.8
Montreal
18
11
7
15
Winnipeg
-17.6
-20.3
2.7
-16.0
Ottawa
12
6
5
11
Toronto
-9.3
-10.6
1.3
-4.9
Toronto
20
17
3
11
Ottawa
-15.5
-11.2
-4.3
-8.4
Quebec City
9
8
2
17
Montreal
-15.3
-10.4
-4.9
-8.1
Winnipeg
3
2
2
2
Quebec City
-21.2
-13.0
-8.2
-10.9
Calgary
3
3
0
2
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
23
+4.0% +3.0% +3.4% +3.5% +2.0% +2.0% +0.7% +1.0% +0.0% +0.0% -1.0% -0.5% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -4.6% -6.0% 21-Feb
35.8
Denver, CO
14-Feb
Billings, MT
Retail Foot Traffic WDD (Actuals for last 6 weeks. Outlook for next 2 weeks.)
7-Feb
2014 Change Normal
31-Jan
2015
24-Jan
City
17-Jan
2014 Change Normal
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
10-Jan
2015
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
3-Jan
City
Compared to the Same Week Last Year
Temperature
• Weekend Review: Mild conditions continued to dominate much of the country. Colder than normal temperatures were limited to parts of the Northeast and Southeast. Much needed rain, as well as snow in the higher elevations, fell across northern California. A Winter storm moved across the Great Lakes late Saturday before traveling into the Northeast on Sunday. Snowfall amounts were moderate to heavy for most markets. An area of disruptive ice impacted New York City and the surrounding suburbs. • Last year, the U.S. had its coldest start to February in over 20 years, with well above normal rainfall. Treacherous ice and snow storms stretched from the Plains through New England. • Wanna Get Warm? Look to the West! The Mountain region was warmest since 1963. The Pacific region was warmest since 1995. Salt Lake City had its warmest start to February in over 55 years. Las Vegas and San Francisco were warmest since 1963. Portland, OR and San Diego were warmest since 1995, Sacramento since 1996, and Seattle since 1998. Warm conditions continued to support demand for early Spring merchandise. • Ol’ Man Winter Refused to let go of the East. The New England region had its coldest start to February since 1985. The Mid-Atlantic region was coldest since 2007. Boston was coldest since 1985, while NYC and Buffalo were coldest since 2007. Cold conditions supported demand for Winter clearance items. • Snow Continued in the Northern Tier. The Mid-Atlantic region had its snowiest start to February since 2010, and the East North Central region since 2011. Buffalo (23.1 in.), Detroit (19 in.), and Cleveland (12.9 in.) all had the most snow to start February in over 55 years. Chicago (19.9 in.) had its most snowfall to start February since the Groundhog Day storm of 2011. Boston (17.9 in.) had its most snowfall since 2013. Demand for snow removal categories and need-based emergency items was strong. The active storm track across the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast provided snowfall totals that were above normal, but still below LY. • Heavy Rain in the Northwest. While rainfall across the U.S. was below last year, it was still above normal. The Pacific region was wettest since 1998. Seattle and Portland, OR were wettest since 2006. Tampa was also wettest since 2006, and Cleveland had its most rainfall to begin February since 2008. MEAN TEMPERATURE (°F) PRECIPITATION (Inches) Period of Record: Feb 1 2015 to Feb 7 2015 Period of Record: Feb 1 2015 to Feb 7 2015
Precipitation
U.S. Summary and Callouts
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product/category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather.
ICE MELT North America +20% Boston +88% Chicago +31% Toronto -10% Salt Lake City -84%
BICYCLES North America +15% Denver +195% Kansas City +99% San Diego +43% Miami -9%
CAPRIS North America +14% Seattle +130% St. Louis +31% Houston +19% New York City -28%
ALLERGY RELIEF North America +5% Dallas +10% Los Angeles +7% Detroit -1% Orlando -5%
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
THIS WEEK: February 8, 2015 – February 14, 2015 (Retail Week 2 / February Week 2)
Mild Temperatures Begin the Week for Most. Cold Air Filters Into the East by Valentine’s Day. Multiple Storms Bring More Wintry Weather to the Northeast and Eastern Canada. Precipitation vs. LY
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
Ice
Snow
• This week last year, the U.S. had its coldest 2nd week of February since 2011, most rain since 2003, and most snowfall since 2007. A major storm dumped snow and ice throughout the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast regions. Valentine’s Day temperatures were cold, but warmer than normal. Canada had its coldest 2nd week of February since 2003, the most rain since 2008, and slightly below normal snowfall. Valentine’s Day in Canada was cold, but warmer than normal. • Milder Start to the Week. Much of the country will enjoy relatively mild temperatures for the first half of the week. High temperatures will push into the 60s and even 70s for the Western Plains and Deep South while the Southwest will reach the low 80s. The Northern Tier states will be in the 20s and 30s. Temperatures will be much warmer than last year and normal. Consumers in the Southern Tier will begin to think of Spring purchases like tees and patio furniture. • Snow and Ice Continue in the North and East. A storm system will intensify as it moves across the northeastern U.S. early in the week bringing a mix of rain, ice, and snow to the Mid-Atlantic and more heavy snow to New England. • A Second Storm Brings in the Chill. A second storm will bring heavy rain and mountain snow from the northwest to northern California early in the week before drier conditions set up. The storm will generate light snow along the U.S.Canadian border as it tracks across the middle of the continent before it intensifies near the East Coast. By the end of the week, the Northeast will potentially receive another significant Winter storm with heavy snow and high winds. These two storms will continue to drive Winter demand for ice melt and snow removal. • Expect an Arctic Outbreak for Love Birds in the East on Valentine's Day. Arctic air will move from Canada into the central and eastern U.S. from Thursday into the weekend. Temperatures will drop well below normal and last year. Western areas will remain warmer than normal and last year with the warmth quickly rebounding back out into the Plains and northward into the Canadian Prairies. • Canada Cold in the East, Warm in the West. Markets in Eastern Ontario and Quebec will be colder than last year while western provinces will be milder than last year. Precipitation will be strongest near the Great Lakes and in the West.
Temperature vs. LY
This Week Outlook & Callouts
Light Medium Heavy
Ice
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category UNITED STATES Tee Shirts +10%
Ice Melt
Restaurant Traffic
Boots
+4%
Sweaters
+3%
Blankets
+2% - 10%
CANADA +26%
NEXT WEEK: February 15, 2015 – February 21, 2015 (Retail Week 3 / February Week 3)
The West Will Enjoy Unseasonably Warm Temperatures, Driving Early Spring Purchasing. Winter Conditions Persist in the East, With More Storm Threats. Canada to Trend Colder Than LY.
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Precipitation vs LY
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
Ice
Snow
• Last year, temperatures in the U.S. trended the warmest in 3 years with near normal rain and slightly above normal snowfall. President’s Day was the warmest since 2005 coupled with above normal snowfall in the Midwest. Temperatures in Canada trended slightly warmer than normal with the most rainfall since 1997. Snowfall was above normal. • President’s Day Outlook. President’s Day (February 16th) in the U.S. is expected to trend colder than last year and normal in the East. In the West, temperatures are expected to trend warmer than last year and normal. • For the Week as a Whole: The Winter Chill Persists Across the East. Frigid conditions hold on across the eastern U.S. as temperatures remain well below normal and last year from Texas and the Plains to the East Coast. • Still More Winter Storm Threats. The threat of snow and ice will be strongest next week from the Central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic region. Look to your daily snow and ice alerts with details specific to your business. • Warmth in the West Will Drive Spring Purchasing. The western third of the U.S. will remain warmer than normal and last year through much of the week. The warmer temperatures will once again expand out into the Plains during the second half of the week. Rain and mountain snow will return to the West Coast to end the week. • Canada Will Experience Shifting Temperatures. Canada will begin the week with temperatures colder than last year and normal throughout the country. Warmer temperatures will only envelop the western half of the country starting Thursday through the weekend, giving consumers in that area a nice break from the Winter conditions.
Temperature vs LY
Next Week Outlook & Callouts
Light Medium Heavy
Ice
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category UNITED STATES Fleece +13%
CANADA Hats & Gloves
+6%
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
