FlashWeather NA 2016 0425
Precipitation vs. Last Year
Temperature vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
North American Summary • Last year, temperatures in the U.S. trended cooler than normal, particularly in New England and the Great Lakes. It was the wettest week 3 of April since 1979. Canada was coolest since 2011. Rainfall was much above normal and the most since 2012. • Weekend Review: After lingering showers along the East Coast early Saturday, the weather dried out for the remainder of the weekend. Temperatures trended above normal and LY for most in North America, primarily in the East. Combined with dry weather, demand for outdoor categories was robust. While cooler in the West against the recent heat, it was still warmer than LY for most. Scattered showers fell across the Intermountain West and extended north into western Canada and east through the Northern Plains and upper Midwest. Hot and dry weather in the South supported early demand for summer categories. • Put the Top Down on the ‘Little Red Corvette.’ Spring temperatures were in full swing as the U.S. had its warmest week 3 of April since 1990. Warmth supported demand for spring categories including lawn & garden, apparel, and consumables such as allergy relief, suncare, and cold drinks. All regions trended warmer than LY. Of particular note, the Pacific region had its warmest week 3 of April in over 55 years. San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, and Portland, OR were all warmest in over 55 years. LA was warmest since 1997. Further east, NYC, St. Louis, and Cincinnati were all warmest since 1990. Cooler temperatures to LY were focused in Florida, Texas, the Gulf Coast, and the Rockies. • No ‘Purple Rain.’ The week trended drier than LY for many markets supporting traffic into retailers, restaurants, and home centers. Buffalo had its driest week 3 of April in over 55 years. Seattle was driest since 1987, Nashville since 1999, St. Louis since 2006, and Boston and Cleveland since 2008. • Houston Flooding: More Than a ‘Kiss’ of Rain. While most of the country was drier than LY, Houston experienced its wettest 3rd week of April in over 55 years. Severe flooding occurred when over 9 inches of rain fell on April 18th, making it the second most rainfall recorded on any day of Houston’s history. Up to 20 inches fell in select locations around the city. Clean-up efforts continue and demand for need-based items soared throughout the week. Elsewhere in the South Central region, Oklahoma City had its wettest week 3 in over 55 years and Dallas was wettest since 1962. • Warmth in Canada a ‘Sign O’ The Times.’ All major markets in Canada trended warmer than LY, driving demand for spring categories. Vancouver had its warmest week 3 of April in over 55 years. Calgary was warmest since 1980, Toronto since 2008, Montreal since 2010. Rainfall was the least for week 3 of April since 2010. Halifax was driest since 1997; Toronto since 2010.
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD)* Category Notables SHORT SLEEVE SHIRTS North America Toronto Chicago Baltimore Denver
+12% +36% +22% +17% -8%
GRASS SEED North America Minneapolis Portland, OR Philadelphia Orlando
ALLERGY RELIEF +11% +55% +19% +11% -11%
North America Los Angeles Boston Cleveland Miami
+9% +20% +16% +12% - 2%
APPAREL STORE TRAFFIC North America Seattle New York City Detroit Houston
+6.1% +16.6% +14.4% +12.4% -4.8%
* WDDs represent the change in demand vs. LY based purely on changes in weather.
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
Temperature vs. Last Year
Precipitation vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Lawn Mowers: +18%
Tee Shirts (Canada): -9%
More Favorable
Temperature vs. Last Year
Less Favorable
• Last year, temperatures in the U.S were near normal for the final week of the month. Rainfall was the least since 1992. Canada trended slightly warmer than normal, with below normal rainfall. • Heat in the East, Less in the West. The week ahead from the Plains to the East Coast will feel quite spring-like with 70s expanding east and 80s in southern regions. Warm weather categories should see strong demand trends as we end the month. The South will have heat index readings exceeding 90˚F, driving demand increases for air conditioners, fans, and cold beverages. Cooler temperatures in the West will replace the recent heat. • A Final Round of “April Showers.” After a recent dry trend for most, expect a return to widespread wetness. Showers across the West and in the northern states early week will push into the Midwest and Northeast. • Severe Weather Threats Continue. Through mid-week, there are threats of a strong outbreak of severe weather from the Midwest through the Plains, particularly in Oklahoma City. High winds, large hail, and tornadoes will drive demand for generators, pumps, canned goods, and other emergency supplies. Late week, Pacific moisture is expected for California and the Southwest with more severe weather for the Plains. • Spring Disappears in Canada. While many in the lower 48 will be basking in above normal (and last year) temperatures, shoppers in Canada will be less fortunate. A cooler trend is expected along with periods of rain (and snow), curtailing demand for most seasonal items.
Precipitation vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Sandals: -9%
Lawn Tools (Canada): -11%
More Favorable
Less Favorable
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
• Last year, it was the warmest start to May in the U.S. since 2007, driven by the eastern half of the country. Rainfall was near normal and severe weather was active in the Southern and Central Plains. Mother's Day was warmest since 2004. Canada was warmer than normal with below normal rainfall and the warmest Mother's Day since 1961. • Difficult Comp! Temperatures from the Plains to the East are expected to cool down to near normal through the week. However, against strong heat last year, expect demand for most warm weather categories to lag considerably including apparel, lawn care, and auto appearance. • Return to the Warm, Warm West. In the West, after a cooler period, a warmer trend is expected to reestablish, boosting seasonal demand as a result. • Storms a-Plenty. Frequent storms will bring periods of showers during the week, wettest from the Plains to the East Coast as well as in the Northwest. • Mother’s Day Weekend. Mom’s special weekend will have near normal temperatures for most, with the strongest warmth expected in the West. • Regional Trends for Canada. Expect a warmer week from the Prairies to the West. Eastern provinces will be cooler to a very warm week LY. Interior locations will be dry, while coastal provinces will be wetter. www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
Temperature vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
North American Summary • Last year, temperatures in the U.S. trended cooler than normal, particularly in New England and the Great Lakes. It was the wettest week 3 of April since 1979. Canada was coolest since 2011. Rainfall was much above normal and the most since 2012. • Weekend Review: After lingering showers along the East Coast early Saturday, the weather dried out for the remainder of the weekend. Temperatures trended above normal and LY for most in North America, primarily in the East. Combined with dry weather, demand for outdoor categories was robust. While cooler in the West against the recent heat, it was still warmer than LY for most. Scattered showers fell across the Intermountain West and extended north into western Canada and east through the Northern Plains and upper Midwest. Hot and dry weather in the South supported early demand for summer categories. • Put the Top Down on the ‘Little Red Corvette.’ Spring temperatures were in full swing as the U.S. had its warmest week 3 of April since 1990. Warmth supported demand for spring categories including lawn & garden, apparel, and consumables such as allergy relief, suncare, and cold drinks. All regions trended warmer than LY. Of particular note, the Pacific region had its warmest week 3 of April in over 55 years. San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, and Portland, OR were all warmest in over 55 years. LA was warmest since 1997. Further east, NYC, St. Louis, and Cincinnati were all warmest since 1990. Cooler temperatures to LY were focused in Florida, Texas, the Gulf Coast, and the Rockies. • No ‘Purple Rain.’ The week trended drier than LY for many markets supporting traffic into retailers, restaurants, and home centers. Buffalo had its driest week 3 of April in over 55 years. Seattle was driest since 1987, Nashville since 1999, St. Louis since 2006, and Boston and Cleveland since 2008. • Houston Flooding: More Than a ‘Kiss’ of Rain. While most of the country was drier than LY, Houston experienced its wettest 3rd week of April in over 55 years. Severe flooding occurred when over 9 inches of rain fell on April 18th, making it the second most rainfall recorded on any day of Houston’s history. Up to 20 inches fell in select locations around the city. Clean-up efforts continue and demand for need-based items soared throughout the week. Elsewhere in the South Central region, Oklahoma City had its wettest week 3 in over 55 years and Dallas was wettest since 1962. • Warmth in Canada a ‘Sign O’ The Times.’ All major markets in Canada trended warmer than LY, driving demand for spring categories. Vancouver had its warmest week 3 of April in over 55 years. Calgary was warmest since 1980, Toronto since 2008, Montreal since 2010. Rainfall was the least for week 3 of April since 2010. Halifax was driest since 1997; Toronto since 2010.
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD)* Category Notables SHORT SLEEVE SHIRTS North America Toronto Chicago Baltimore Denver
+12% +36% +22% +17% -8%
GRASS SEED North America Minneapolis Portland, OR Philadelphia Orlando
ALLERGY RELIEF +11% +55% +19% +11% -11%
North America Los Angeles Boston Cleveland Miami
+9% +20% +16% +12% - 2%
APPAREL STORE TRAFFIC North America Seattle New York City Detroit Houston
+6.1% +16.6% +14.4% +12.4% -4.8%
* WDDs represent the change in demand vs. LY based purely on changes in weather.
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
Temperature vs. Last Year
Precipitation vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Lawn Mowers: +18%
Tee Shirts (Canada): -9%
More Favorable
Temperature vs. Last Year
Less Favorable
• Last year, temperatures in the U.S were near normal for the final week of the month. Rainfall was the least since 1992. Canada trended slightly warmer than normal, with below normal rainfall. • Heat in the East, Less in the West. The week ahead from the Plains to the East Coast will feel quite spring-like with 70s expanding east and 80s in southern regions. Warm weather categories should see strong demand trends as we end the month. The South will have heat index readings exceeding 90˚F, driving demand increases for air conditioners, fans, and cold beverages. Cooler temperatures in the West will replace the recent heat. • A Final Round of “April Showers.” After a recent dry trend for most, expect a return to widespread wetness. Showers across the West and in the northern states early week will push into the Midwest and Northeast. • Severe Weather Threats Continue. Through mid-week, there are threats of a strong outbreak of severe weather from the Midwest through the Plains, particularly in Oklahoma City. High winds, large hail, and tornadoes will drive demand for generators, pumps, canned goods, and other emergency supplies. Late week, Pacific moisture is expected for California and the Southwest with more severe weather for the Plains. • Spring Disappears in Canada. While many in the lower 48 will be basking in above normal (and last year) temperatures, shoppers in Canada will be less fortunate. A cooler trend is expected along with periods of rain (and snow), curtailing demand for most seasonal items.
Precipitation vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Sandals: -9%
Lawn Tools (Canada): -11%
More Favorable
Less Favorable
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
• Last year, it was the warmest start to May in the U.S. since 2007, driven by the eastern half of the country. Rainfall was near normal and severe weather was active in the Southern and Central Plains. Mother's Day was warmest since 2004. Canada was warmer than normal with below normal rainfall and the warmest Mother's Day since 1961. • Difficult Comp! Temperatures from the Plains to the East are expected to cool down to near normal through the week. However, against strong heat last year, expect demand for most warm weather categories to lag considerably including apparel, lawn care, and auto appearance. • Return to the Warm, Warm West. In the West, after a cooler period, a warmer trend is expected to reestablish, boosting seasonal demand as a result. • Storms a-Plenty. Frequent storms will bring periods of showers during the week, wettest from the Plains to the East Coast as well as in the Northwest. • Mother’s Day Weekend. Mom’s special weekend will have near normal temperatures for most, with the strongest warmth expected in the West. • Regional Trends for Canada. Expect a warmer week from the Prairies to the West. Eastern provinces will be cooler to a very warm week LY. Interior locations will be dry, while coastal provinces will be wetter. www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
