flashweather 05262015
Precipitation vs Last Year
Temperature vs Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
North American Summary • Last year, the U.S. trended warmer than normal. It was the driest 3rd week of May since 2002. Rain across the Southern Plains helped drought stricken areas, and severe weather continued with over 650 confirmed reports. In Canada, temperatures trended slightly warmer than normal with the least rainfall for the 3rd week of May since 2010. • Holiday Weekend Review: The holiday weekend trended cooler and wetter than normal. Warmer than normal conditions were focused along the East and West Coasts. Cool temperatures and rainfall were prominent throughout the Central Plains, Rockies, and Southwest. Severe weather included tornadoes, flooding, and high winds, particularly in Texas and Oklahoma. Memorial Day was warmer than normal although cooler than LY. It was the wettest since 2004 driven by the heavy rain in the South Central region. • Coolest 3rd Week of May Since 2011. Cool temperatures were focused in the Central regions, limiting year-over-year demand for summer categories such as swimwear, pool toys, and cold drinks. • Record Rain in the Plains. It was an extremely wet week in the Central Plains with the South Central region having its wettest 3rd week of May in over 55 years. The focus of the rain was in Oklahoma and Texas. Oklahoma City has now received over 17 inches of rain this May, making it the wettest month ever recorded in this market. In addition to demand spikes for rainwear and wiper blades, flooding and severe weather drove need-based purchasing of sump pumps and cleanup categories. • Water Skiing Weather Along the East Coast. Coastal locations had a mostly warm and dry week. The strongest warmth compared to last year was along the entire East Coast. Driest conditions were centered in New England. It was an ideal week for outdoor categories including camping, swimming, and cycling as well as consumables such as suncare and bagged ice. • Snow Skiing Weather in Some High Elevations. Several markets had frost while a few had freezing temperatures and even snowfall last week. Snowfall was focused in the higher elevations of the Rockies and the interior Northeast. • Canada was Coolest Since 2009 and Driest Since 2010. Toronto and Winnipeg had their coolest 3rd week of May since 2008. Warmth was in the West as Vancouver was warmest since 1993. Rainfall was 35% less than LY and well below normal, supporting traffic into many businesses and restaurants.
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD*) Category Notables. GRILLING & PROPANE North America Boston Miami Dallas Denver
+1% +12% +5% -7% -21%
SLEEVELESS TOPS North America Toronto Philadelphia San Diego Atlanta
-1% +10% +7% -3% -11%
MASS MERCHANDISE STORE TRAFFIC
BAGGED ICE North America Baltimore Orlando New Orleans San Francisco
-3% +7% +5% -15% -17%
North America Chicago New York City Houston Los Angeles
-0.2% +0.4% +0.5% -2.3% -0.7%
* WDDs represent the change in demand vs. LY based purely on changes in weather.
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
Temperature vs. LY
Precipitation vs. LY
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Pest Control: +5%
Shorts (Canada): +21%
More Favorable
Temperature vs. LY
Less Favorable
Precipitation vs. LY
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Water Toys: -5%
More Favorable
Air Conditioners (Canada): -14%
Less Favorable
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
• Last year, the U.S. had the warmest final week of May since 2002 with near normal rainfall. Canada saw near normal conditions. Memorial Day was warmer and drier than the prior year, and the warmest for the Pacific region since 1995. • Heat in the East and West. Expect strong demand for seasonal categories as the East and West Coasts trend warmer than normal and LY, with the strongest variances in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Pacific Northwest regions. Early week temperatures in California will lag LY. By week’s end, the entire West Coast should be hotter than LY and normal, lifting seasonal demand. • Continued Cool in the Plains and Southwest. The Plains and Desert Southwest remain cooler than normal and much cooler than LY, providing challenging comparisons for seasonal apparel and consumables. • Unsettled Weather East of the Rockies. Heavy rain, flooding, and severe thunderstorms are expected both early and late week in the Plains, continuing to drive need-based purchasing of cleanup categories. Expect showers and thunderstorms from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast mid-week. Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain will move into the Midwest by the end of the week, lifting demand for wiper blades, rain gear, and lawn/growing categories. • Warmth in Canada. Major Canadian markets will trend above normal, with warmer than LY conditions from the central Prairies westward, and Ottawa eastward. Wetter than LY conditions encompass Ontario and Quebec.
• Last year, the U.S. had its 3rd warmest start to June in over 50 years. Warmth was focused in the East with cooler temperatures in the West. Conditions trended drier than normal, except for record rain in the West North Central. Canada saw its warmest start to June since 2006, and its driest start since 2009. • East Begins Cool and Wet, But Warms Up Late Week. The East begins the week slightly cooler than normal and LY, but the heat returns by mid-week. The greatest opportunity for seasonal demand is in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions. Showers and thunderstorms are likely early and late in the week from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast. • West Coast Remains Warm. Most of the West Coast will be warmer than LY and normal. Further inland, the Southwest will continue to trend cooler than LY, resulting in challenging comps. • Southern Plains Cool and Dry. Temperatures will remain below normal and LY, with some early week warmth for the Northern Plains. The Southern Plains finally gets a reprieve from the torrential rainfall, helping to aid ongoing clean-up efforts. Showers and thunderstorms are expected in the Central and Northern Plains. • Canada Cool in the East, Warmer West. The Prairies westward will be warmer than LY while Ontario and much of the East will be cooler. Wetter than normal and LY conditions are expected for most major markets. www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
Temperature vs Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
North American Summary • Last year, the U.S. trended warmer than normal. It was the driest 3rd week of May since 2002. Rain across the Southern Plains helped drought stricken areas, and severe weather continued with over 650 confirmed reports. In Canada, temperatures trended slightly warmer than normal with the least rainfall for the 3rd week of May since 2010. • Holiday Weekend Review: The holiday weekend trended cooler and wetter than normal. Warmer than normal conditions were focused along the East and West Coasts. Cool temperatures and rainfall were prominent throughout the Central Plains, Rockies, and Southwest. Severe weather included tornadoes, flooding, and high winds, particularly in Texas and Oklahoma. Memorial Day was warmer than normal although cooler than LY. It was the wettest since 2004 driven by the heavy rain in the South Central region. • Coolest 3rd Week of May Since 2011. Cool temperatures were focused in the Central regions, limiting year-over-year demand for summer categories such as swimwear, pool toys, and cold drinks. • Record Rain in the Plains. It was an extremely wet week in the Central Plains with the South Central region having its wettest 3rd week of May in over 55 years. The focus of the rain was in Oklahoma and Texas. Oklahoma City has now received over 17 inches of rain this May, making it the wettest month ever recorded in this market. In addition to demand spikes for rainwear and wiper blades, flooding and severe weather drove need-based purchasing of sump pumps and cleanup categories. • Water Skiing Weather Along the East Coast. Coastal locations had a mostly warm and dry week. The strongest warmth compared to last year was along the entire East Coast. Driest conditions were centered in New England. It was an ideal week for outdoor categories including camping, swimming, and cycling as well as consumables such as suncare and bagged ice. • Snow Skiing Weather in Some High Elevations. Several markets had frost while a few had freezing temperatures and even snowfall last week. Snowfall was focused in the higher elevations of the Rockies and the interior Northeast. • Canada was Coolest Since 2009 and Driest Since 2010. Toronto and Winnipeg had their coolest 3rd week of May since 2008. Warmth was in the West as Vancouver was warmest since 1993. Rainfall was 35% less than LY and well below normal, supporting traffic into many businesses and restaurants.
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD*) Category Notables. GRILLING & PROPANE North America Boston Miami Dallas Denver
+1% +12% +5% -7% -21%
SLEEVELESS TOPS North America Toronto Philadelphia San Diego Atlanta
-1% +10% +7% -3% -11%
MASS MERCHANDISE STORE TRAFFIC
BAGGED ICE North America Baltimore Orlando New Orleans San Francisco
-3% +7% +5% -15% -17%
North America Chicago New York City Houston Los Angeles
-0.2% +0.4% +0.5% -2.3% -0.7%
* WDDs represent the change in demand vs. LY based purely on changes in weather.
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
Temperature vs. LY
Precipitation vs. LY
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Pest Control: +5%
Shorts (Canada): +21%
More Favorable
Temperature vs. LY
Less Favorable
Precipitation vs. LY
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Water Toys: -5%
More Favorable
Air Conditioners (Canada): -14%
Less Favorable
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
• Last year, the U.S. had the warmest final week of May since 2002 with near normal rainfall. Canada saw near normal conditions. Memorial Day was warmer and drier than the prior year, and the warmest for the Pacific region since 1995. • Heat in the East and West. Expect strong demand for seasonal categories as the East and West Coasts trend warmer than normal and LY, with the strongest variances in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Pacific Northwest regions. Early week temperatures in California will lag LY. By week’s end, the entire West Coast should be hotter than LY and normal, lifting seasonal demand. • Continued Cool in the Plains and Southwest. The Plains and Desert Southwest remain cooler than normal and much cooler than LY, providing challenging comparisons for seasonal apparel and consumables. • Unsettled Weather East of the Rockies. Heavy rain, flooding, and severe thunderstorms are expected both early and late week in the Plains, continuing to drive need-based purchasing of cleanup categories. Expect showers and thunderstorms from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast mid-week. Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain will move into the Midwest by the end of the week, lifting demand for wiper blades, rain gear, and lawn/growing categories. • Warmth in Canada. Major Canadian markets will trend above normal, with warmer than LY conditions from the central Prairies westward, and Ottawa eastward. Wetter than LY conditions encompass Ontario and Quebec.
• Last year, the U.S. had its 3rd warmest start to June in over 50 years. Warmth was focused in the East with cooler temperatures in the West. Conditions trended drier than normal, except for record rain in the West North Central. Canada saw its warmest start to June since 2006, and its driest start since 2009. • East Begins Cool and Wet, But Warms Up Late Week. The East begins the week slightly cooler than normal and LY, but the heat returns by mid-week. The greatest opportunity for seasonal demand is in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions. Showers and thunderstorms are likely early and late in the week from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast. • West Coast Remains Warm. Most of the West Coast will be warmer than LY and normal. Further inland, the Southwest will continue to trend cooler than LY, resulting in challenging comps. • Southern Plains Cool and Dry. Temperatures will remain below normal and LY, with some early week warmth for the Northern Plains. The Southern Plains finally gets a reprieve from the torrential rainfall, helping to aid ongoing clean-up efforts. Showers and thunderstorms are expected in the Central and Northern Plains. • Canada Cool in the East, Warmer West. The Prairies westward will be warmer than LY while Ontario and much of the East will be cooler. Wetter than normal and LY conditions are expected for most major markets. www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
