flashweather na j0j17
LAST WEEK: September 17, 2017 - September 23, 2017 (Retail Week 34/ September Week 4)
Summer-like Warmth Stifled Fall Demand Across Eastern North America. The West Kept it Cool. Jose Was a Nuisance to the New England Coast. Maria Devastated Puerto Rico. Precipitation vs. Last Year
Temperature vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) Category Notables Thermals
USA +2%
Exterior Paint
Favorable
USA +1%
Fashion Apparel Traffic USA +0.5%
Lawn Tools
Unfavorable
CAN +1%
WDDs represent the estimated % change in demand of the product / category based purely on the year-over-year changes in weather.
Weekend Review
Above normal warmth continued across the eastern half of North America with record warm temperatures in parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. Cooler temperatures persisted in the West and expanded into the Northern Plains. Showers and storms were focused in central areas; the West and East were dry. Canada remained split, with much above normal warmth in eastern Canada and cooler temperatures in the West. Showers fell throughout the Prairies and far western Canada. Sat., Sat.9/23 1/28
Sun., Sun.9/24 1/29 Temperature vs. LY
Weekly Summary
• Strong Warmth in the Plains, Midwest, and East. While temperatures rose above normal and LY for many east of the Rockies, nationally, temperatures trended cooler than a record warm LY. Late week, several record high temperatures were broken in the Midwest and Great Lakes. Temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s were common in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic to end the week. The East North Central region was warmest for the week in 55+ years, the West North Central and Mid-Atlantic regions were 2nd warmest. The warm conditions limited demand for seasonal categories. • Fall in the West. Cooler than normal and LY temperatures persisted in the West. The Pacific and Mountain regions were coolest since 2013. Warmer temperatures arrived late week in the Pacific Northwest. The cooler temperatures aided demand for fall goods. • Rain & Mountain Snow in the West & Plains. The Plains had showers and thunderstorms throughout the week. Rain and high elevation snow fell across the Rockies and the Pacific Northwest. The rest of the U.S. was dry. • Hurricane Jose Wasn’t a Threat, Maria Devastated Puerto Rico. Hurricane Jose sat off the New England coast for several days. The storm brought gusty winds and higher surf, but never made U.S. landfall. Hurricane Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico as a Category 4 major hurricane, knocking power out to the entire island. • Canada Followed Suit. Similar to the U.S., eastern Canada was much warmer than normal and LY and led the country to its warmest September week 4 in 55+ years. Western Canada remained cool. Early week, showers fell early in the West. Rain and even a few thunderstorms were common in the Prairies throughout the week. • Last year, the U.S. had its warmest 4th week of September in over 55 years and was drier than normal. Canada was warmer and drier than normal.
Temperature & Precipitation Notables United States Precipitation vs. LY
Canada Coolest Since Warmest Since Wettest Since Driest Since
© 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Cooler Than LY, Warmer Than Normal; Driest Since 1990 Warmest in 55+ Years; Driest Since 2015 1986-Riverside; 1996-Calgary, 2007-Edmonton, Salt Lake City; 2011-Los Angeles 55+ Years-Chicago, Detroit, Minneapolis, Montreal, St. Louis, Quebec City, Toronto 55+ Years-Edmonton; 1986-Portland,OR; 2001-Miami; 2005-LA; 2010-Kansas City 2012-Orlando; 2013-Baltimore; 2014-Atlanta, Minneapolis; 2015-Halifax, NYC www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
September 24, 2017 - September 30, 2017 (Retail Week 35/ September Week 5)
Hurricane Maria Flirts With North Carolina Coast. The Calendar Says Fall, but the East Says Summer. The West Warms Again. Cooler Air Takes Aim at Central U.S. Eastern Canada Warms. Temperature vs. Last Year
Precipitation vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Fleece
USA -8%
More Favorable
Boots
CAN -20%
Less Favorable
• Not Again! Maria Comes Close. Hurricane Maria is expected to continue its northwesterly track towards North Carolina, but should stay parallel to the coast before moving further out to sea. Despite not making landfall, many in the Outer Banks of North Carolina and along the coast of Virginia will see tropical storm force winds, high surf, and likely coastal flooding. Continue to monitor your daily Planalytics Tropical Alerts for the latest information. • Is This Really September? Much like the prior week, the East will continue to see August-like temperatures with highs in the 80s and even some 90s early in the week. Temperatures will begin to cool late in the week. • Cool in the West and Plains. The West will start out cooler than LY, but warm by the end of the week. The middle of the country will see temperatures below normal and LY, especially late week. • Dry in the West and East, Wet in the Plains. As the cooler air moves from west to east across the Rockies and Plains, expect showers and thunderstorms from Texas to Minnesota. Showers are likely late week in the Northeast. • Canada Resembles the U.S. Eastern Canada starts warmer than normal and LY, cooling off late week. Western Canada warms late in the week. Expect showers mid-week in the Prairies, late in the East. • Last year, the U.S. trended warmer and wetter than normal to end September. Canada had temperatures much warmer than normal with near normal rainfall.
October 2, 2017 - October 7, 2017 (Retail Week 36/ October Week 1)
Cooler Temperatures Make a Brief Return to the Eastern U.S. to Begin October. The West Starts Warm, Ends Cool. Showers Likely Central and East. Eastern Canada to Trend Cooler Than LY. Temperature vs. Last Year
Precipitation vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Blankets
USA +3%
More Favorable
Hats & Gloves
CAN -4%
• Cool Start for the East, Warm Finish. Temperatures are expected to begin much cooler than LY east of the Mississippi River. However, warmer temperatures versus normal will return by the end of the week. • Warmth in the Heartland. Despite starting cooler than LY and normal, summer-like temperatures will make their way back by the middle of the week. • The West Cools Late. The West will begin the week warmer than LY, but cooler temperatures will arrive late week, especially in the Pacific Northwest. • Unsettled East of the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected in the Intermountain West, Plains, and East. Planalytics will continue to monitor the Caribbean for potential tropical development. • Cool in Eastern Canada. Cooler than LY temperatures will persist in eastern Canada, despite being warmer than normal. The Prairies will remain warm. • Last year, the U.S. kicked off October with warmer than normal temperatures. Nationally, it was the wettest start to October since 2009, driven in part by Hurricane Matthew impacting the Southeast with heavy rain and flooding. Canada was warmest and wettest since 2011.
Less Favorable
© 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
Summer-like Warmth Stifled Fall Demand Across Eastern North America. The West Kept it Cool. Jose Was a Nuisance to the New England Coast. Maria Devastated Puerto Rico. Precipitation vs. Last Year
Temperature vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) Category Notables Thermals
USA +2%
Exterior Paint
Favorable
USA +1%
Fashion Apparel Traffic USA +0.5%
Lawn Tools
Unfavorable
CAN +1%
WDDs represent the estimated % change in demand of the product / category based purely on the year-over-year changes in weather.
Weekend Review
Above normal warmth continued across the eastern half of North America with record warm temperatures in parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. Cooler temperatures persisted in the West and expanded into the Northern Plains. Showers and storms were focused in central areas; the West and East were dry. Canada remained split, with much above normal warmth in eastern Canada and cooler temperatures in the West. Showers fell throughout the Prairies and far western Canada. Sat., Sat.9/23 1/28
Sun., Sun.9/24 1/29 Temperature vs. LY
Weekly Summary
• Strong Warmth in the Plains, Midwest, and East. While temperatures rose above normal and LY for many east of the Rockies, nationally, temperatures trended cooler than a record warm LY. Late week, several record high temperatures were broken in the Midwest and Great Lakes. Temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s were common in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic to end the week. The East North Central region was warmest for the week in 55+ years, the West North Central and Mid-Atlantic regions were 2nd warmest. The warm conditions limited demand for seasonal categories. • Fall in the West. Cooler than normal and LY temperatures persisted in the West. The Pacific and Mountain regions were coolest since 2013. Warmer temperatures arrived late week in the Pacific Northwest. The cooler temperatures aided demand for fall goods. • Rain & Mountain Snow in the West & Plains. The Plains had showers and thunderstorms throughout the week. Rain and high elevation snow fell across the Rockies and the Pacific Northwest. The rest of the U.S. was dry. • Hurricane Jose Wasn’t a Threat, Maria Devastated Puerto Rico. Hurricane Jose sat off the New England coast for several days. The storm brought gusty winds and higher surf, but never made U.S. landfall. Hurricane Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico as a Category 4 major hurricane, knocking power out to the entire island. • Canada Followed Suit. Similar to the U.S., eastern Canada was much warmer than normal and LY and led the country to its warmest September week 4 in 55+ years. Western Canada remained cool. Early week, showers fell early in the West. Rain and even a few thunderstorms were common in the Prairies throughout the week. • Last year, the U.S. had its warmest 4th week of September in over 55 years and was drier than normal. Canada was warmer and drier than normal.
Temperature & Precipitation Notables United States Precipitation vs. LY
Canada Coolest Since Warmest Since Wettest Since Driest Since
© 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Cooler Than LY, Warmer Than Normal; Driest Since 1990 Warmest in 55+ Years; Driest Since 2015 1986-Riverside; 1996-Calgary, 2007-Edmonton, Salt Lake City; 2011-Los Angeles 55+ Years-Chicago, Detroit, Minneapolis, Montreal, St. Louis, Quebec City, Toronto 55+ Years-Edmonton; 1986-Portland,OR; 2001-Miami; 2005-LA; 2010-Kansas City 2012-Orlando; 2013-Baltimore; 2014-Atlanta, Minneapolis; 2015-Halifax, NYC www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
September 24, 2017 - September 30, 2017 (Retail Week 35/ September Week 5)
Hurricane Maria Flirts With North Carolina Coast. The Calendar Says Fall, but the East Says Summer. The West Warms Again. Cooler Air Takes Aim at Central U.S. Eastern Canada Warms. Temperature vs. Last Year
Precipitation vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Fleece
USA -8%
More Favorable
Boots
CAN -20%
Less Favorable
• Not Again! Maria Comes Close. Hurricane Maria is expected to continue its northwesterly track towards North Carolina, but should stay parallel to the coast before moving further out to sea. Despite not making landfall, many in the Outer Banks of North Carolina and along the coast of Virginia will see tropical storm force winds, high surf, and likely coastal flooding. Continue to monitor your daily Planalytics Tropical Alerts for the latest information. • Is This Really September? Much like the prior week, the East will continue to see August-like temperatures with highs in the 80s and even some 90s early in the week. Temperatures will begin to cool late in the week. • Cool in the West and Plains. The West will start out cooler than LY, but warm by the end of the week. The middle of the country will see temperatures below normal and LY, especially late week. • Dry in the West and East, Wet in the Plains. As the cooler air moves from west to east across the Rockies and Plains, expect showers and thunderstorms from Texas to Minnesota. Showers are likely late week in the Northeast. • Canada Resembles the U.S. Eastern Canada starts warmer than normal and LY, cooling off late week. Western Canada warms late in the week. Expect showers mid-week in the Prairies, late in the East. • Last year, the U.S. trended warmer and wetter than normal to end September. Canada had temperatures much warmer than normal with near normal rainfall.
October 2, 2017 - October 7, 2017 (Retail Week 36/ October Week 1)
Cooler Temperatures Make a Brief Return to the Eastern U.S. to Begin October. The West Starts Warm, Ends Cool. Showers Likely Central and East. Eastern Canada to Trend Cooler Than LY. Temperature vs. Last Year
Precipitation vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Blankets
USA +3%
More Favorable
Hats & Gloves
CAN -4%
• Cool Start for the East, Warm Finish. Temperatures are expected to begin much cooler than LY east of the Mississippi River. However, warmer temperatures versus normal will return by the end of the week. • Warmth in the Heartland. Despite starting cooler than LY and normal, summer-like temperatures will make their way back by the middle of the week. • The West Cools Late. The West will begin the week warmer than LY, but cooler temperatures will arrive late week, especially in the Pacific Northwest. • Unsettled East of the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected in the Intermountain West, Plains, and East. Planalytics will continue to monitor the Caribbean for potential tropical development. • Cool in Eastern Canada. Cooler than LY temperatures will persist in eastern Canada, despite being warmer than normal. The Prairies will remain warm. • Last year, the U.S. kicked off October with warmer than normal temperatures. Nationally, it was the wettest start to October since 2009, driven in part by Hurricane Matthew impacting the Southeast with heavy rain and flooding. Canada was warmest and wettest since 2011.
Less Favorable
© 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
