flashweather na k0b17
October 15, 2017 – October 21, 2017 (Retail Week 38/ October Week 3)
Colder Temperatures vs. LY Aided YOY Seasonal Demand in the Eastern U.S. Heavy Rain Fell in the Pacific Northwest. Near Record Warmth in Canada Challenged Fall Purchasing. Precipitation vs. Last Year
Temperature vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) Category Notables Outerwear
USA +10%
Soup
USA +2%
Favorable
Sporting Goods Traffic USA +1.3%
Ice Melt
Unfavorable
CAN -29%
WDDs represent the estimated % change in demand of the product / category based purely on the year-over-year changes in weather.
Weekend Review
The eastern half of North America saw above normal and LY temperatures with near-record warmth in the upper Midwest and southeast Canada. Colder than normal and LY conditions spread across the Intermountain West and along the West Coast. The Pacific Northwest had showers and high elevation snow. Heavy showers and thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley, including several tornadoes in Oklahoma.
Sat., 10/21 Sat. 1/28
Sun., Sun.10/22 1/29 Temperature vs. LY
Weekly Summary
• Cold Start, Warm Finish in the East. A burst of cold air swept across the East early week but temperatures quickly rebounded to near-record warmth. The West North Central region had its warmest October week 3 since 1971. Nationally, it was the third warmest October week 3 in 55+ years although still short of last year’s record warmth. • Colder Across the West. An autumn feel continued to dominate the western U.S., although there was a slight warming trend during the middle of the week. Both the Pacific and West South Central regions were coldest since 2013, the Mountain region since 2015, promoting YOY opportunity for seasonal goods. • Needed Rain in the West. Heavy rain and mountain snow fell in the Northwest. Over 4 inches of rain was reported in Seattle and nearly 3 inches in Portland, OR. Light rain extended into northern California, aiding efforts to gain control of the remaining wildfires. The Pacific region had its wettest October week 3 since the record year of 2004. • Storms Bookended the Week East of the Rockies. A storm system produced rain and thunderstorms from the Plains to the East Coast early in the week. Another system developed over the Plains and Mississippi Valley to end the week. • Canada: Warm Prairies, Colder West. Temperatures were above LY and normal from the Prairies to portions of the East leading the country to its 2nd warmest October week 2 in over 55 years, warmest since 1963. Colder conditions ruled the West. Heavy rain and mountain snow fell in the western provinces much of the week. • Last year, it was the warmest October week 3 in the U.S. in more than 55 years and the wettest since 2009. Canada had its warmest 3rd week of October since 1963, driven by the eastern half of the country. It was the wettest October week 3 in over 55 years.
Temperature & Precipitation Notables United States Precipitation vs. LY
Canada Coldest Since Warmest Since Wettest Since Driest Since
© 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Warmer Than Normal, Colder Than LY; Driest Since 2013 Warmest Since 1963; Driest Since 2015 2012-Portland, OR; 2013-Dallas, Oklahoma City, San Francisco, Seattle, Vancouver 55+ Years-Miami, Tampa; 1963-Minneapolis, Winnipeg; 1965-Los Angeles 55+ Years-Portland, OR; 1986-Oklahoma City; 2001-Tampa; 2003-Seatlle 1973-Cleveland; 2000-Buffalo; 2004-Halifax; 2010-Miami; 2013-Montreal www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
October 22, 2017 - October 28, 2017 (Retail Week 39/ October Week 4)
Retail October to End on a ‘Spooktacular’ Colder vs. LY Note for Most, Aiding Seasonal Demand. Storms Expected for Most; Drier in the West. Regional Trends in Canada. Temperature vs. Last Year
Precipitation vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Snow
Ice
Light Medium Heavy
CANADA CANADA
UNITED UNITEDSTATES STATES
Rainwear Fleece
Ice
+36% +5%
Boots Hats & Gloves
-18% -17%
• Warm Start, Colder Finish. Warmer than normal and LY temperatures are expected early in the week over the eastern third of the U.S. keeping demand for cold weather categories at bay. However, a surge of colder air will overspread the area mid-week and into the upcoming pre-Halloween weekend. With the exception of the Northeast and West Coast, colder vs. LY readings will help to shift the demand trend. • Severe Soaker. The large storm system that brought the severe weather this past weekend in the Plains is expected to move slowly eastward affecting all eastern regions through mid-week. Considerable rainfall with the possibility for severe storms will drive need-based demand for rainwear, wiper blades, and related categories. Another round of storms will push out of the Rockies into the Plains late week into the weekend. • Canada: Colder West, Warmer East. The week ahead is likely to feature regional differences. A surge of colder than LY temperatures is expected later in the week in the Prairies and western provinces, aiding demand for cold weather apparel, heaters, and other seasonal categories. Conversely, Quebec, Ontario, and the Maritimes will be warmer. Anticipate a stormy week coast to coast. • Last year, the U.S. trended warmest for the final week of October in 55+ years, driven by interior regions. Conditions were drier than normal. Canada had its coldest end to October since 2013. Rainfall was near average, but the least since 2011.
October 28, 2017 - November 4, 2017 (Retail Week 40/ November Week 1)
Brrrrr ..ing on the Cold! Expect a Much ‘Ghouler’ Start to Retail November, Lifting Demand Trends. Stormy Plains to East Coast, Wintry for Some. Chilly Canadian Comfort. Temperature vs. Last Year
Precipitation vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Snow
Ice
Light Medium Heavy
UNITED UNITEDSTATES STATES
Heating
+29%
Ice
CANADA UNITED STATES Boots +4%
© 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
• Continuing Cold. The colder temperatures ending retail October are likely to continue into November. In fact, expect a reinforcement of colder readings, particularly vs. LY for nearly all U.S. regions, providing a more robust demand tailwind for all manner of seasonal categories. Areas of frost and freeze will be common in northern and interior regions. Only New England and the Southwest will trend less cold. • Trick or Treat? Most Halloween ‘tricksters’ will be treated to a dry and seasonal evening, allowing for ‘maximum candy flow’. • O’ (Colder) Canada. Temperature trends will extend further north as well, the coldest readings focused in the West and Prairies. Periods of wintry weather are expected with the cold. Eastern provinces will be relatively warmer and may also have a wetter Halloween evening. • Last year, the U.S. had its warmest first week of November in over 55 years, driven by interior and western regions. It was drier than normal. Halloween was the warmest since 1974 in the U.S. with less than normal rainfall. Canada had temperatures well above normal but below normal rainfall. Halloween in Canada was the coldest since 2010 while rainfall was less than normal.
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
Colder Temperatures vs. LY Aided YOY Seasonal Demand in the Eastern U.S. Heavy Rain Fell in the Pacific Northwest. Near Record Warmth in Canada Challenged Fall Purchasing. Precipitation vs. Last Year
Temperature vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) Category Notables Outerwear
USA +10%
Soup
USA +2%
Favorable
Sporting Goods Traffic USA +1.3%
Ice Melt
Unfavorable
CAN -29%
WDDs represent the estimated % change in demand of the product / category based purely on the year-over-year changes in weather.
Weekend Review
The eastern half of North America saw above normal and LY temperatures with near-record warmth in the upper Midwest and southeast Canada. Colder than normal and LY conditions spread across the Intermountain West and along the West Coast. The Pacific Northwest had showers and high elevation snow. Heavy showers and thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley, including several tornadoes in Oklahoma.
Sat., 10/21 Sat. 1/28
Sun., Sun.10/22 1/29 Temperature vs. LY
Weekly Summary
• Cold Start, Warm Finish in the East. A burst of cold air swept across the East early week but temperatures quickly rebounded to near-record warmth. The West North Central region had its warmest October week 3 since 1971. Nationally, it was the third warmest October week 3 in 55+ years although still short of last year’s record warmth. • Colder Across the West. An autumn feel continued to dominate the western U.S., although there was a slight warming trend during the middle of the week. Both the Pacific and West South Central regions were coldest since 2013, the Mountain region since 2015, promoting YOY opportunity for seasonal goods. • Needed Rain in the West. Heavy rain and mountain snow fell in the Northwest. Over 4 inches of rain was reported in Seattle and nearly 3 inches in Portland, OR. Light rain extended into northern California, aiding efforts to gain control of the remaining wildfires. The Pacific region had its wettest October week 3 since the record year of 2004. • Storms Bookended the Week East of the Rockies. A storm system produced rain and thunderstorms from the Plains to the East Coast early in the week. Another system developed over the Plains and Mississippi Valley to end the week. • Canada: Warm Prairies, Colder West. Temperatures were above LY and normal from the Prairies to portions of the East leading the country to its 2nd warmest October week 2 in over 55 years, warmest since 1963. Colder conditions ruled the West. Heavy rain and mountain snow fell in the western provinces much of the week. • Last year, it was the warmest October week 3 in the U.S. in more than 55 years and the wettest since 2009. Canada had its warmest 3rd week of October since 1963, driven by the eastern half of the country. It was the wettest October week 3 in over 55 years.
Temperature & Precipitation Notables United States Precipitation vs. LY
Canada Coldest Since Warmest Since Wettest Since Driest Since
© 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Warmer Than Normal, Colder Than LY; Driest Since 2013 Warmest Since 1963; Driest Since 2015 2012-Portland, OR; 2013-Dallas, Oklahoma City, San Francisco, Seattle, Vancouver 55+ Years-Miami, Tampa; 1963-Minneapolis, Winnipeg; 1965-Los Angeles 55+ Years-Portland, OR; 1986-Oklahoma City; 2001-Tampa; 2003-Seatlle 1973-Cleveland; 2000-Buffalo; 2004-Halifax; 2010-Miami; 2013-Montreal www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
October 22, 2017 - October 28, 2017 (Retail Week 39/ October Week 4)
Retail October to End on a ‘Spooktacular’ Colder vs. LY Note for Most, Aiding Seasonal Demand. Storms Expected for Most; Drier in the West. Regional Trends in Canada. Temperature vs. Last Year
Precipitation vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Snow
Ice
Light Medium Heavy
CANADA CANADA
UNITED UNITEDSTATES STATES
Rainwear Fleece
Ice
+36% +5%
Boots Hats & Gloves
-18% -17%
• Warm Start, Colder Finish. Warmer than normal and LY temperatures are expected early in the week over the eastern third of the U.S. keeping demand for cold weather categories at bay. However, a surge of colder air will overspread the area mid-week and into the upcoming pre-Halloween weekend. With the exception of the Northeast and West Coast, colder vs. LY readings will help to shift the demand trend. • Severe Soaker. The large storm system that brought the severe weather this past weekend in the Plains is expected to move slowly eastward affecting all eastern regions through mid-week. Considerable rainfall with the possibility for severe storms will drive need-based demand for rainwear, wiper blades, and related categories. Another round of storms will push out of the Rockies into the Plains late week into the weekend. • Canada: Colder West, Warmer East. The week ahead is likely to feature regional differences. A surge of colder than LY temperatures is expected later in the week in the Prairies and western provinces, aiding demand for cold weather apparel, heaters, and other seasonal categories. Conversely, Quebec, Ontario, and the Maritimes will be warmer. Anticipate a stormy week coast to coast. • Last year, the U.S. trended warmest for the final week of October in 55+ years, driven by interior regions. Conditions were drier than normal. Canada had its coldest end to October since 2013. Rainfall was near average, but the least since 2011.
October 28, 2017 - November 4, 2017 (Retail Week 40/ November Week 1)
Brrrrr ..ing on the Cold! Expect a Much ‘Ghouler’ Start to Retail November, Lifting Demand Trends. Stormy Plains to East Coast, Wintry for Some. Chilly Canadian Comfort. Temperature vs. Last Year
Precipitation vs. Last Year
Warmer
Wetter
Colder
Drier
Snow
Ice
Light Medium Heavy
UNITED UNITEDSTATES STATES
Heating
+29%
Ice
CANADA UNITED STATES Boots +4%
© 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
• Continuing Cold. The colder temperatures ending retail October are likely to continue into November. In fact, expect a reinforcement of colder readings, particularly vs. LY for nearly all U.S. regions, providing a more robust demand tailwind for all manner of seasonal categories. Areas of frost and freeze will be common in northern and interior regions. Only New England and the Southwest will trend less cold. • Trick or Treat? Most Halloween ‘tricksters’ will be treated to a dry and seasonal evening, allowing for ‘maximum candy flow’. • O’ (Colder) Canada. Temperature trends will extend further north as well, the coldest readings focused in the West and Prairies. Periods of wintry weather are expected with the cold. Eastern provinces will be relatively warmer and may also have a wetter Halloween evening. • Last year, the U.S. had its warmest first week of November in over 55 years, driven by interior and western regions. It was drier than normal. Halloween was the warmest since 1974 in the U.S. with less than normal rainfall. Canada had temperatures well above normal but below normal rainfall. Halloween in Canada was the coldest since 2010 while rainfall was less than normal.
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
