Krung Thai Bank Unrated (15E TP Bt20.00)
Company Update
Close Bt18.10
Banking
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
August 27, 2015
Supreme Court ends long‐running Krisda Mahanakron lending case Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
2.189
2.386
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
1.0%
3.5%
Reuters / Bloomberg
KTB.BK/KTB TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
13,976.06
Par (Bt)
5.15
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
253.00/7,102.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
25.00/15.06
52 week High / Low (Bt)
24.50/16.60
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
48,377.00 4.66
Estimated free float (%)
44.93
Beta
1.13
URL
www.ktb.co.th
CGR
Event The Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Political Position‐Holders ruled that Viroj Nualkhair (former Krung Thai Bank president) and Suchai Jaovisidha (former bank chairman) as well as 17 other defendants were found guilty of colluding to approve more than Bt9.9bn in loans dishonestly to subsidiaries of the Krisda Mahanakorn Group in 2003‐2004, for refinancing and land acquisition. However, the loans were used for personal purposes, the court found. Viroj Nualkhair and Suchai Jaovisidha were yesterday sentenced to 18 years in prison. The other defendants convicted in the case include the bank's credit officers and executives of companies affiliated with Krisda Mahanakorn who received loans from KTB. They were sentenced to 12‐18 years each in jail. The Supreme Court also ordered all the convicts to pay compensation totaling more than Bt10bn in damages to KTB. Comment We view this news as positive for KTB. Note that these loans were already classified as NPLs by KTB with land (~4,323 rai) near Suvarnabhumi Airport as collateral for such a case. Note that the latest appraisal value in Feb‐12 for this land was ~Bt12.3bn as per data sent to the SET by AQ Estate Plc. (AQ), formerly known as Krisda Mahanakorn. AQ also mentioned that the value of securities is sufficient to pay debts in case the bank is able to sell the collateral mentioned above. Assuming that the bank can eventually settle this transaction, the positive impacts could be in the form of a potentially higher loan loss reserve cushion from a reserve write‐back in the loan loss reserve item on the asset side (we expect roughly ~Bt3‐4bn, accounting for around 6‐8% of KTB’s net profit for 2017). This could partly help lower KTB’s extra provisioning burden in the future. Secondly, KTB could book some gain from the debt settlement. However, the bank still cannot provide a timeframe for the debt settlement and we expect this process to take some time. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015E*
2016E*
2017E*
PPOP (Btmn)
44,262
46,854
54,211
56,822
61,700
Provision (Btmn)
12,311
13,658
23,071
21,739
18,783
Net Profit (Btmn)
34,511
33,196
30,956
34,471
42,135
2.47
2.37
2.21
2.47
3.01
EPS Growth (%)
47.7%
‐3.8%
‐6.7%
11.4%
22.2%
Book value (Bt)
14.74
16.60
17.96
19.57
21.72
Dividend (Bt)
0.88
0.90
0.90
0.91
1.05 2017E*
EPS (Bt)
Note: KT•ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO
Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836
[email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5872
FY Ended 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015E*
2016E*
PER (X)
7.33
7.62
8.18
7.34
6.01
PBV (X)
1.23
1.09
1.01
0.92
0.83
Div. Yield (%) 4.86 4.97 4.97 5.04 5.83 ROE (%) 18% 15% 13% 13% 15% *The figures for 2015‐17E are based on consolidation of KTC using the consolidated accounting basis instead of the equity method as previously.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: KTB's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X) 2.0
2015E
PBV (x) Implied market
+2 S.D.
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
1.8
32
75
+1.5SD
1.6
29
60
+1.0SD
1.5
26
44
-1 S.D.
+0.5SD
1.3
23
29
-1.5 S.D.
Average
1.1
21
14
0.4
-0.5SD
1.0
18
-2
0.2
-1.0SD
0.8
15
-17
-1.5SD
0.7
12
-32
-2.0SD
0.5
9
-48
1.8
+1.5 S.D. +1 S.D.
1.6 1.4
+0.5 S.D. Avg. -0.5 S.D.
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6
Mar-15
Aug-15
Apr-14
Sep-14
Nov-13
Jan-13
Jun-13
Feb-12
Aug-12
Apr-11
Sep-11
Jun-10
Nov-10
Jul-09
Jan-10
Feb-09
Apr-08
Sep-08
Nov-07
Jan-07
Jun-07
-2 S.D.
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: KTB's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X) 25
2015E
20
Mar-15
Aug-15
Sep-14
Apr-14
Nov-13
Jan-13
Jun-13
Feb-12
Aug-12
Apr-11
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Sep-11
Jun-10
Nov-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Feb-09
Jan-07
Jun-07
0
Sep-08
5
Apr-08
10
+1.5 S.D. +1 S.D. +0.5 S.D. Avg. -0.5 S.D. -1 S.D. -1.5 S.D. -2 S.D.
Nov-07
15
+2 S.D.
PER (x) Implied market
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
17.4
39
113
+1.5SD
15.5
34
90
+1.0SD
13.6
30
67
+0.5SD
11.7
26
43
Average
9.8
22
20
-0.5SD
7.9
18
-3
-1.0SD
6.0
13
-26
-1.5SD
4.1
9
-49
-2.0SD
2.2
5
-73
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, KBS, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, CPI KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for CSC, GPSC, U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, PLE KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of ASEFA
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.