Krung Thai Bank
Krung Thai Bank Unrated (16E TP Bt21.00)
Earnings Review
Close Bt16.80
Banking
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
January 22, 2016
4Q15 earnings below forecasts on higher extra provision Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
2.307
2.579
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
1.0%
5.1%
Reuters / Bloomberg
KTB.BK/KTB TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
13,976.06
Par (Bt)
5.15
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
235.00/6,470.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
25.00/13.41
52 week High / Low (Bt)
24.00/15.20
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
49,510.00 4.44
Estimated free float (%)
44.93
Beta
1.17
URL
www.ktb.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Financials and Valuation 2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
PPOP (Btmn)
44,262
52,032
59,433
56,149
61,008
Level 4 (Certified)
Provision (Btmn)
12,311
18,643
30,542
23,013
22,385
Net Profit (Btmn)
34,511
33,191
28,492
32,624
37,940
Note: KT•ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO
Prapharas Nonthapiboon
Attractive valuation and sound dividend yield are key appeals We view that the bank’s action taken on the SSI case should remove the long overhanging concern. Going forward, we view that KTB’s solid core earnings, especially on its solid fee income growth should help to reduce the impact of a potential high provisioning level. The bank’s inexpensive valuation and solid dividend yield of ~5% are other main appeals. 4Q15 NP below our forecast but in line with the street KTB’s 4Q15 net profit (NP) of Bt6.8bn was below our forecast (Bt8.3bn) but quite in line with the street estimate (Bt7.0bn). The lower‐than‐ expected NP was due largely to the higher provision as KTB finally decided to set an extra provision of Bt5.3bn in 4Q15 (vs. the extra provision of Bt3.6bn in 2Q15 and Bt6.7bn in 3Q15). 4Q15 net profit stood at Bt6.8bn (‐16% YoY, +27% QoQ) The weaker NP YoY was due to a higher provision as it set an extra provision of Bt5.3bn in 4Q15 vs. the normal provision in 4Q14. Meanwhile, the higher NP QoQ was due to a lower extra provision QoQ as stated earlier. Net fee income for 4Q15 was the key bright spot with robust growth of 22% QoQ and 60% YoY, backed largely by the high season for retail loans, partly from its credit card subsidiary, KTC. Loans grew by 2.2% QoQ and 3.8% YoY. 2015 net profit stood at Bt28.5bn (‐14% YoY) The decline in NP was due largely to 1) a higher provision (151bps in 2015 vs. 95 bps in 2014); 2) lower NIM by ~8bps on the rate cut impact and higher NPLs; 3) slight loan growth of just 3.8% YoY. However, the main bright spot for KTB was its robust net fee income growth of 30% YoY, which was the main cushion to its earnings and helped ease the impact of the higher provision. NPL ratio lower QoQ on write‐off of SSI UK loans The bank’s NPLs in 4Q15 dropped QoQ to 3.2% from 4.03% in 3Q15 as it wrote‐off loans of SSI UK (~Bt12.4bn) in 4Q15. If excluding the impact from the SSI case, its NPL ratio would stand at ~2.76%, still up YoY from 2.41% in 2014, mainly from retail and SME loans. The bank’s reserve‐to‐ NPL ratio in 4Q15 was at 112% vs. 106% in 3Q15 and 124% in 4Q14. Meanwhile, its reserve to the BoT’s required reserve was slightly higher QoQ to 138% from 135%. FY Ended 31 Dec
2.47
2.37
2.04
2.33
2.71
EPS Growth (%)
EPS (Bt)
47.7%
‐3.8%
‐14.2%
14.5%
16.3%
Book value (Bt)
14.74
16.60
17.59
19.38
21.24
Dividend (Bt)
0.88
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.95
FY Ended 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
Analyst, no 17836
PER (X)
6.81
7.08
8.24
7.20
6.19
[email protected]
PBV (X)
1.14
1.01
0.96
0.87
0.79
66 (0) 2695‐5872
Div. Yield (%) ROE (%)
5.24 17.9%
5.36 15.1%
5.36 11.9%
5.36 12.6%
5.65 13.4%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: 4Q15 and 2015 earnings results Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended Dec.
4Q14
3Q15
4Q15 % YoY % QoQ
2014
2015 % YoY
Net Interest Income
20,198
20,407
20,227
0%
-1%
79,394
80,868
2%
Non Interest Income
7,351
8,867
10,397
41%
17%
28,657
35,741
25%
Operating Income
27,549
29,274
30,624
11%
5% 108,051
116,609
8%
Operating Expenses
12,730
12,233
13,355
5%
9%
48,146
50,920
6%
Provision (Reversal)
3,693
10,453
8,849
140%
-15%
18,643
30,542
64%
Tax expenses (Reversal)
1,528
990
1,383
-10%
40%
7,184
5,608
-22%
Net Profit
8,019
5,347
6,767
-16%
27%
33,191
28,492
-14%
13,523
16,401
17,560
30%
7%
52,032
59,433
14%
0.57
0.38
0.48
-16%
27%
2.37
2.04
-14%
4Q14
3Q15
4Q15
2014
2015
Gross NPLs (Btmn)
57,489
91,532
76,371
Gross NPLs/Loans
2.41%
4.03%
3.20%
2.41%
3.20%
132.2%
102.5%
112.5%
132.2%
112.5%
10.9%
11.7%
11.4%
10.9%
11.4%
PPOP-after tax EPS (Bt) Key Statistics & Ratios
Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs Tier I to Risk Assets
57,489
76,371
C apital Adequacy Ratio
14.8%
15.5%
15.2%
14.8%
15.2%
Loan to Deposit Ratio
90.8%
95.7%
94.9%
90.8%
94.9%
Loan to Deposits & Borrowings
85.0%
90.6%
90.0%
85.0%
90.0%
Provision to loans
0.76%
2.11%
1.75%
0.95%
1.51%
C ost to Income
46.2%
41.8%
43.6%
44.6%
43.7%
Non Interest Inc./Total Inc.
26.7%
30.3%
34.0%
26.5%
30.7%
Net Interest Margin
3.11%
3.11%
3.05%
3.10%
3.02%
Tax rate
13.7%
15.0%
16.4%
17.4%
17.8%
Loan growth -YoY
10.8%
7.1%
3.8%
10.8%
3.8%
N.M.
0.2%
2.2%
Loan growth -QoQ Source: KTZMICO Research
Figure 2: KTB's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X) 2.0 1.8 1.6
2016E
+2 S.D. +1.5 S.D.
1.4
+1 S.D.
1.2
+0.5 S.D. Avg.
1.0 0.8 0.6
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D.
0.4
-1.5 S.D.
0.2
-2 S.D.
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
0.0
PBV (x) Implied market
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
1.8
36
113
+1.5SD
1.6
32
88
+1.0SD
1.4
27
63
+0.5SD
1.2
23
38
Average
1.0
19
14
-0.5SD
0.8
15
-11
-1.0SD
0.6
11
-36
-1.5SD
0.3
7
-61
-2.0SD
0.1
2
-86
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Figure 3: KTB's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X) 25
2016E
20 15 10 5
+2 S.D. +1.5 S.D. +1 S.D. +0.5 S.D. Avg. -0.5 S.D. -1 S.D. -1.5 S.D. -2 S.D.
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
0
PER (x) Implied market
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
16.4
38
128
+1.5SD
14.7
34
104
+1.0SD
13.0
30
80
+0.5SD
11.2
26
56
Average
9.5
22
32
-0.5SD
7.8
18
8
-1.0SD
6.0
14
-16
-1.5SD
4.3
10
-40
-2.0SD
2.6
6
-64
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, TFG. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Earnings Review
Close Bt16.80
Banking
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
January 22, 2016
4Q15 earnings below forecasts on higher extra provision Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
2.307
2.579
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
1.0%
5.1%
Reuters / Bloomberg
KTB.BK/KTB TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
13,976.06
Par (Bt)
5.15
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
235.00/6,470.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
25.00/13.41
52 week High / Low (Bt)
24.00/15.20
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
49,510.00 4.44
Estimated free float (%)
44.93
Beta
1.17
URL
www.ktb.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Financials and Valuation 2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
PPOP (Btmn)
44,262
52,032
59,433
56,149
61,008
Level 4 (Certified)
Provision (Btmn)
12,311
18,643
30,542
23,013
22,385
Net Profit (Btmn)
34,511
33,191
28,492
32,624
37,940
Note: KT•ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO
Prapharas Nonthapiboon
Attractive valuation and sound dividend yield are key appeals We view that the bank’s action taken on the SSI case should remove the long overhanging concern. Going forward, we view that KTB’s solid core earnings, especially on its solid fee income growth should help to reduce the impact of a potential high provisioning level. The bank’s inexpensive valuation and solid dividend yield of ~5% are other main appeals. 4Q15 NP below our forecast but in line with the street KTB’s 4Q15 net profit (NP) of Bt6.8bn was below our forecast (Bt8.3bn) but quite in line with the street estimate (Bt7.0bn). The lower‐than‐ expected NP was due largely to the higher provision as KTB finally decided to set an extra provision of Bt5.3bn in 4Q15 (vs. the extra provision of Bt3.6bn in 2Q15 and Bt6.7bn in 3Q15). 4Q15 net profit stood at Bt6.8bn (‐16% YoY, +27% QoQ) The weaker NP YoY was due to a higher provision as it set an extra provision of Bt5.3bn in 4Q15 vs. the normal provision in 4Q14. Meanwhile, the higher NP QoQ was due to a lower extra provision QoQ as stated earlier. Net fee income for 4Q15 was the key bright spot with robust growth of 22% QoQ and 60% YoY, backed largely by the high season for retail loans, partly from its credit card subsidiary, KTC. Loans grew by 2.2% QoQ and 3.8% YoY. 2015 net profit stood at Bt28.5bn (‐14% YoY) The decline in NP was due largely to 1) a higher provision (151bps in 2015 vs. 95 bps in 2014); 2) lower NIM by ~8bps on the rate cut impact and higher NPLs; 3) slight loan growth of just 3.8% YoY. However, the main bright spot for KTB was its robust net fee income growth of 30% YoY, which was the main cushion to its earnings and helped ease the impact of the higher provision. NPL ratio lower QoQ on write‐off of SSI UK loans The bank’s NPLs in 4Q15 dropped QoQ to 3.2% from 4.03% in 3Q15 as it wrote‐off loans of SSI UK (~Bt12.4bn) in 4Q15. If excluding the impact from the SSI case, its NPL ratio would stand at ~2.76%, still up YoY from 2.41% in 2014, mainly from retail and SME loans. The bank’s reserve‐to‐ NPL ratio in 4Q15 was at 112% vs. 106% in 3Q15 and 124% in 4Q14. Meanwhile, its reserve to the BoT’s required reserve was slightly higher QoQ to 138% from 135%. FY Ended 31 Dec
2.47
2.37
2.04
2.33
2.71
EPS Growth (%)
EPS (Bt)
47.7%
‐3.8%
‐14.2%
14.5%
16.3%
Book value (Bt)
14.74
16.60
17.59
19.38
21.24
Dividend (Bt)
0.88
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.95
FY Ended 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
Analyst, no 17836
PER (X)
6.81
7.08
8.24
7.20
6.19
[email protected]
PBV (X)
1.14
1.01
0.96
0.87
0.79
66 (0) 2695‐5872
Div. Yield (%) ROE (%)
5.24 17.9%
5.36 15.1%
5.36 11.9%
5.36 12.6%
5.65 13.4%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: 4Q15 and 2015 earnings results Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended Dec.
4Q14
3Q15
4Q15 % YoY % QoQ
2014
2015 % YoY
Net Interest Income
20,198
20,407
20,227
0%
-1%
79,394
80,868
2%
Non Interest Income
7,351
8,867
10,397
41%
17%
28,657
35,741
25%
Operating Income
27,549
29,274
30,624
11%
5% 108,051
116,609
8%
Operating Expenses
12,730
12,233
13,355
5%
9%
48,146
50,920
6%
Provision (Reversal)
3,693
10,453
8,849
140%
-15%
18,643
30,542
64%
Tax expenses (Reversal)
1,528
990
1,383
-10%
40%
7,184
5,608
-22%
Net Profit
8,019
5,347
6,767
-16%
27%
33,191
28,492
-14%
13,523
16,401
17,560
30%
7%
52,032
59,433
14%
0.57
0.38
0.48
-16%
27%
2.37
2.04
-14%
4Q14
3Q15
4Q15
2014
2015
Gross NPLs (Btmn)
57,489
91,532
76,371
Gross NPLs/Loans
2.41%
4.03%
3.20%
2.41%
3.20%
132.2%
102.5%
112.5%
132.2%
112.5%
10.9%
11.7%
11.4%
10.9%
11.4%
PPOP-after tax EPS (Bt) Key Statistics & Ratios
Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs Tier I to Risk Assets
57,489
76,371
C apital Adequacy Ratio
14.8%
15.5%
15.2%
14.8%
15.2%
Loan to Deposit Ratio
90.8%
95.7%
94.9%
90.8%
94.9%
Loan to Deposits & Borrowings
85.0%
90.6%
90.0%
85.0%
90.0%
Provision to loans
0.76%
2.11%
1.75%
0.95%
1.51%
C ost to Income
46.2%
41.8%
43.6%
44.6%
43.7%
Non Interest Inc./Total Inc.
26.7%
30.3%
34.0%
26.5%
30.7%
Net Interest Margin
3.11%
3.11%
3.05%
3.10%
3.02%
Tax rate
13.7%
15.0%
16.4%
17.4%
17.8%
Loan growth -YoY
10.8%
7.1%
3.8%
10.8%
3.8%
N.M.
0.2%
2.2%
Loan growth -QoQ Source: KTZMICO Research
Figure 2: KTB's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X) 2.0 1.8 1.6
2016E
+2 S.D. +1.5 S.D.
1.4
+1 S.D.
1.2
+0.5 S.D. Avg.
1.0 0.8 0.6
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D.
0.4
-1.5 S.D.
0.2
-2 S.D.
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
0.0
PBV (x) Implied market
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
1.8
36
113
+1.5SD
1.6
32
88
+1.0SD
1.4
27
63
+0.5SD
1.2
23
38
Average
1.0
19
14
-0.5SD
0.8
15
-11
-1.0SD
0.6
11
-36
-1.5SD
0.3
7
-61
-2.0SD
0.1
2
-86
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Figure 3: KTB's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X) 25
2016E
20 15 10 5
+2 S.D. +1.5 S.D. +1 S.D. +0.5 S.D. Avg. -0.5 S.D. -1 S.D. -1.5 S.D. -2 S.D.
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
0
PER (x) Implied market
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
16.4
38
128
+1.5SD
14.7
34
104
+1.0SD
13.0
30
80
+0.5SD
11.2
26
56
Average
9.5
22
32
-0.5SD
7.8
18
8
-1.0SD
6.0
14
-16
-1.5SD
4.3
10
-40
-2.0SD
2.6
6
-64
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, TFG. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
